NBA Top Picks Today: Best Bets, Jayson Tatum Props, Hawks vs. Knicks Showdown!

Every year on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the NBA schedules a special lineup of games, making it a highlight event across the United States.

The day’s NBA action starts at noon with the Dallas Mavericks playing against the Charlotte Hornets. The schedule features continuous games throughout the day, including a notable rematch of the 2022 NBA Finals with the Boston Celtics facing the Golden State Warriors at 5 p.m. EST.

I have several bets in mind for Monday, specifically a player prop bet on Jayson Tatum as the Celtics look to overcome recent struggles.

Additionally, Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks are set to visit Madison Square Garden, a venue where they have consistently challenged the New York Knicks throughout the 2024-25 season.

Below is an analysis of my betting picks for the day.

Track Record of NBA Best Bets

• Current season (2024-25) stats: 121 wins, 118 losses, 4 pushes (+0.65 units)
• Cumulative record (since 2021-22 season): 1131 wins, 1063 losses, 26 pushes (+38.75 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting history here (including futures). Follow my daily selections on BetStamp here.

Top NBA Bets for Today

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Atlanta Hawks +6.5 (-115) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
• Jayson Tatum to score OVER 26.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Mark Williams OVER 27.5 Points and Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit

Atlanta Hawks +6.5 (-115) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit

The Hawks have beaten the Knicks twice this season, including a victory in the NBA Cup at Madison Square Garden.

Despite this, the Hawks are considered significant underdogs for Monday’s game, especially as the Knicks have been struggling, only managing four wins in their last ten games.

In their home games, the Knicks have a disappointing record against the spread, recently losing to teams like Minnesota and Detroit.

The Hawks, on the other hand, are on a three-game winning streak and have moved up to the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference. With Jalen Johnson back and a solid away record against the spread, Atlanta is poised to continue their strong performance.

If Towns and Hart are absent for the Knicks, their lack of depth could be a significant disadvantage. I’m taking the points with Atlanta, who have proven their dominance over New York this season.

Jayson Tatum OVER 26.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

Tatum has surpassed this points threshold in three of his last four outings against the Warriors, with an overall average of 27.7 points per game this season.

Despite a slight dip in his shooting percentage post-Christmas, Tatum continues to aggressively attempt shots, especially from three-point range. Given the Warriors’ weakened defense, he’s likely to perform well and at least match his seasonal scoring average.

Mark Williams OVER 27.5 Points and Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit

Charlotte’s Mark Williams has been outstanding, averaging 24.7 points and 16.0 rebounds over his last three games.

With an increased role due to Brandon Miller’s injury, Williams is seeing more offensive opportunities, particularly in matchups that favor his style of play. The Mavericks, who struggle defensively in the paint and in rebounding, are an ideal opponent for Williams to continue his impressive form.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Access Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). Follow my daily bets on BetStamp here.