Google gives India a 69% win probability in the must-win 2nd Test against South Africa at Guwahati. After losing the first Test by 30 runs at Eden Gardens on Nov 14, India face elimination from the series. The Barsapara Stadium Test runs Nov 22-26, 2025. Win or face a second home series loss in three.
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🔥 Quick Facts:
- Google odds favor India 69%, South Africa 24%, draw 7%
- South Africa won first Test by 30 runs in Kolkata
- Shubman Gill ruled out, Rishabh Pant captains India
- Overall head-to-head: South Africa 18 wins, India 16 in 44 Tests
- Match starts Nov 22 at 9:00 AM IST due to early sunset
The Must-Win Scenario India Cannot Avoid
India control their own destiny, but only barely. A victory levels the series at 1-1. Anything less—a loss or even a draw—hands South Africa the trophy and costs India a second series defeat at home since 2012. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
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Simon Harmer’s devastating spell of 8 wickets in the first Test proved decisive. On a deteriorating Kolkata pitch, he extracted every advantage spinners could dream of. Now Ravindra Jadeja needs to be similarly ruthless in Guwahati. The challenge? South Africa won’t make the same mistakes twice.
Stand-in captain Rishabh Pant leads India forward without regular skipper Shubman Gill, who suffered a neck injury early in the Kolkata Test. The pressure on Pant is enormous—he’s India’s fourth Test captain in just 12 months.
Google Backs India, But Stats Tell a Different Story
Despite the loss, Google hands India 69% win probability for Guwahati. South Africa gets just 24%, with 7% for a draw. The algorithm favors home advantage and the desperation factor. India haven’t lost consecutive home series in years—that pattern still holds weight mathematically.
| Metric | India | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Head-to-Head (Tests) | 16 wins | 18 wins |
| Home Record vs SA (19 Tests) | 11 wins | 5 wins |
| Draws | 10 between them | |
| Google Win Odds | 69% | 24% |
Yet history shows South Africa aren’t underdogs. They’re the World Test Champions. They’ve proven resilient on Indian soil when it matters most. Temba Bavuma’s captaincy average jumped from 34.53 to 57 since taking charge—he elevates under pressure.
Key Battles That Decide Everything
Mohammed Siraj vs Temba Bavuma defined the first Test. Siraj took 2 for 2 in the second innings yet Bavuma still managed to be the only batter on either side scoring a fifty in Kolkata. In Guwahati, if the seam moves early, Siraj’s pace and aggression become India’s lifeline.
Rishabh Pant meets Simon Harmer again with captaincy added to his burden. Harmer dismissed Pant twice in the same Test. The off-spinner, now 36 years old, bowled at a 4 for 21 rate in Kolkata—that’s barely credible for
a final-inning spell against world-class players.
KL Rahul faces Marco Jansen again. Jansen’s extreme height troubled Rahul in the first Test. Guwahati’s pitch remains a mystery. If it offers variable bounce, Jansen thrives. If it’s true, Rahul seizes the moment.
The Guwahati Factor: New Venue, New Variables
This is Barsapara Stadium’s Test debut. Early start time of 9:00 AM IST needed to beat the early sunset. Red soil surface, unprepared for international cricket until now. Both captains expect it to play well early, then deteriorate.
This is identical to what they said about Kolkata. So preparation matters less than pitch reality. India got a poor surface in Kolkata and paid the price. If Guwahati delivers good batting conditions, India have room to build large scores.
South Africa, missing Kagiso Rabada (rib injury), have less pace depth. They’ll lean harder on Harmer and Jansen. India must target their batting unit. Nobody in their squad besides Bosch averages over 40 with the bat.
Can India Level the Series in Guwahati?
The odds favor India mathematically. Home advantage, desperation, and pattern suggest a win. But South Africa’s quality—especially their spin combination of Harmer and Maharaj—remains formidable. They’ve proven they thrive in pressure situations.
Watch the prediction videos to understand tactical angles.
India cannot afford another slip. Rishabh Pant’s captaincy, Ravindra Jadeja’s response to Harmer’s threat, and whether the new Guwahati pitch favors seam or spin will decide it all.
Sources
- Outlook India – Match prediction with Google odds analysis
- ESPN Cricinfo – Match preview and head-to-head records
- Sporting News – Betting odds and tactical insight
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.