No. 16 USC heads to Eugene to face No. 6 Oregon on November 22, 2025, in a College Football Playoff clash with massive stakes. The Trojans need a win to boost their tournament hopes. Meanwhile, the Ducks are already in the bracket but can’t afford a loss. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET at Autzen Stadium on CBS.
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🔥 Quick Facts:
- Oregon is currently a 9.5-point favorite with a 79.6% win probability
- USC has won only 1 game at Autzen Stadium in its last 5 trips dating to 2007
- Noah Whittington leads college football with 8.2 yards per carry, averaging 623 total rushing yards
- Makai Lemon has 1,090 receiving yards and is one of only 3 FBS players to reach 1,000 yards this season
- Oregon is 23.0-point advantage in scoring margin while USC struggles on the road with just a +2.0 margin in true road games
Head-to-Head History and Recent Trends
These two powerhouses have played 63 times in program history. The all-time record? USC leads 38-23-2. But here’s what matters now: the recent momentum shift. Oregon has won 3 straight against the Trojans. That home-field advantage at Autzen is real. USC has simply struggled winning there in recent memory.
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Thing is, this isn’t just another game. Both teams need this win for entirely different reasons. Oregon would make the 12-team CFP bracket if it started today. But a loss could be devastating—they lack any win over a currently ranked team. For USC, a victory keeps playoff hopes alive. A defeat likely ends those dreams.
According to CBS Sports analysis, Oregon’s path to victory is straightforward: control the line of scrimmage and sustain long drives. Keep USC’s dynamic passing attack on the sidelines.
Match-Up Statistics and Key Indicators
| Statistic | Oregon | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 8-2 |
| Points Per Game | 39.0 | 38.2 |
| Scoring Margin | +23.0 | +16.5 |
| Rushing Yards Per Carry | 6.31 (Best in FBS) | Competitive |
| Road/Away Performance | Home Facility | +2.0 Margin (Struggles) |
| Recent Form | 4 Straight Wins | 4 Straight Wins |
Both offenses rank in the nation’s top tier. But the differences emerge in context. Oregon’s rushing attack is elite—the best per-carry average in college football. USC’s strength lies in vertical passing with Makai Lemon commanding attention. And that’s where the tactical battle starts.
The Ducks enter with confidence. They’ve dominated the trenches in recent meetings. USC, meanwhile, won four consecutive Big Ten games—a program milestone under Lincoln Riley. Still, the road concerns persist.
Offensive Matchup: Who Controls the Ball?
Oregon’s offensive identity is clear: run it and protect the football. Noah Whittington averages 8.2 yards per carry this season. That’s elite territory. Add Kenyon Sadiq’s contributions and the Ducks have one of the most punishing ground attacks in America. They want long, methodical scoring drives.
USC counters with immediate impact plays. Makai Lemon has already surpassed 1,090 receiving yards—he’s one of only 3 FBS receivers to reach the 1,000-yard mark this season. He leads the Power Four in receiving yards per game at 109.0. Quarterback Jayden Maiava must find early rhythm to keep Oregon’s defense honest.
But here’s the problem: Lemon’s brilliance won’t matter if USC falls behind early. The Trojans’ road struggles suggest they’ll face pressure in the first half.
Key Factors and What To Watch For
- Oregon’s rushing attack: If Whittington and company average 6+ yards per carry, the Ducks control the game clock and win.
- USC’s third-down conversion rate: The Trojans must stay efficient or they’ll surrender the high-possession advantage.
- Autzen Stadium atmosphere: A sold-out crowd could disrupt USC’s offensive communication and timing.
- First-half field position: Whoever starts strong will set the tone. USC can’t afford a sluggish first quarter.
- Defensive pressure: Oregon’s defensive line must affect Maiava early and often to suppress Lemon downfield.
Can USC Pull Off the Upset in Eugene?
Numbers suggest Oregon should win. The spread sits at Oregon -9.5 with 79.6% win probability according to open sportsbooks. Statistically, the Ducks have advantages in home-field edge, rushing efficiency, and recent head-to-head success.
Yet college football has a way of surprising us. Lincoln Riley’s teams have shown resilience this season. USC won ugly at Iowa in Los Angeles rain just last week. The Trojans are battle-tested. If they can weather early Oregon aggression and strike with Lemon on vertical routes, they stay competitive through three quarters.
The real question: Can USC’s defense contain Whittington and a relentless Oregon ground attack? If the Ducks rush for over 150 yards in the first half, their playoff path becomes crystal clear—they don’t even need to win convincingly.
Most experts predict Oregon wins. The Trojans will need near-perfect execution to shock Autzen Stadium. So which team wins the battle in the trenches and controls game script?
Sources
- CBS Sports – USC vs Oregon prediction, odds, and playoff implications
- ESPN – Team statistics, player performance data, and rankings
- Sports Reference – Historical records and season statistics
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.