Luka Doncic Shines: Top NBA Bets & Predictions for Mavericks vs. Jazz Showdown!

Following an exciting day in the NBA where Victor Wembanyama scored an impressive 50 points and Giannis Antetokounmpo tallied 59, the action cools down with just a single game on Thursday featuring the Dallas Mavericks against the Utah Jazz.

Luka Doncic and his Mavericks team are eager to break their three-game losing skid as they enter as heavy favorites facing a Utah squad with only two wins. Lauri Markkanen’s performance has been underwhelming this season, averaging only 16.7 points on a mere 38.9 percent shooting.

Our NBA Best Bets have been performing well this week, and following a 3-1 record on Thursday, there seems no need to push aggressively in this particular game. Nonetheless, a couple of wagers have caught my attention for tonight’s contest.

Let’s explore them.

Current NBA Betting Records

• 2024-25 season record: 37-44-1 (-3.43 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1047-989-23 (+34.65 units)

You can see Peter Dewey’s NBA betting history here (including futures). Follow my daily picks on BetStamp here.

Top NBA Picks for Today

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Dereck Lively II OVER 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit

Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Despite Utah managing to limit Doncic to a 5-for-22 shooting performance in their first encounter this season, he still managed to score in excess of 30 points in five other games. His shot volume remains consistent with the previous season, where he led the NBA in scoring with an average of 33.9 points per game. While his free throw attempts have slightly decreased from 8.7 to 7.0 this season, his attempts from the field have not fallen below 19 in any game, ensuring a strong base for this betting prop.

Facing the NBA’s 27th ranked defense, which is allowing an average of 119.0 points per game, presents a prime opportunity for Doncic to redeem himself after the initial subdued performance against Utah.

Dereck Lively II OVER 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit

Mavericks’ second-year center Dereck Lively II is set to benefit from an advantageous matchup, as Utah will be without Walker Kessler, their leading rim protector, on Thursday night. After missing four games, Lively returned to action in Tuesday’s loss to the Golden State Warriors, contributing 12 points and eight rebounds in just over 24 minutes.

Earlier this season, Lively recorded 14 points, four rebounds, and three blocks against Utah in just his third game of the season. With John Collins starting at center, Lively’s size could give him an edge on the glass and in finishing plays from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Lively, who shares minutes with Daniel Gafford, has already surpassed 18 points and rebounds in four out of seven games this season.

This prop bet is a solid choice against a Utah defense that ranks poorly in the league.

Odds update periodically and may change.

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