Ole Miss enters the Egg Bowl as a heavy favorite against Mississippi State on November 28. The No. 6 Rebels hold a 78% win probability according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. Ole Miss sits 10-1 while Mississippi State limps in at 5-6. This SEC rivalry game carries massive implications for both programs.
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🔥 Quick Facts:
- Ole Miss has 67 wins in the all-time series versus 47 losses
- Mississippi State currently on 2-game losing streak in rivalry
- Ole Miss averages 37.2 points per game, ranked 13th nationally
- Mississippi State needs a win for bowl eligibility
- Game kicks off from Starkville with home-field advantage for the Bulldogs
Head-to-Head Statistical Breakdown
This rivalry leans heavily in Ole Miss‘s favor both historically and this season. The Rebels have dominated the series with a 66-46-6 all-time record through 2024. Plus, they’ve won the last 2 consecutive matchups, giving them momentum heading into Nov. 28.
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Recent form tells an even starker story. Ole Miss is 10-1 this season with just one loss, while Mississippi State‘s 5-6 record reflects a team struggling mightily. The Bulldogs are 1-6 in SEC play, showcasing how badly things have gone in conference competition. Ole Miss counters with a 6-1 SEC record, built on offensive dominance and defensive competence.
| Statistic | Ole Miss | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 10-1 | 5-6 |
| SEC Conference Record | 6-1 | 1-6 |
| Points Per Game | 37.2 PPG | 31.5 PPG |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 20.2 PPG | 28.4 PPG |
| Total Yards Per Game | 493.8 yards | 394.6 yards |
| Total Defense | 323.4 yards allowed | 393.2 yards allowed |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 305.1 yards | 242.1 yards |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 188.7 yards | 152.5 yards |
The numbers don’t lie here. Ole Miss dominates nearly every statistical category. They score nearly 6 more points per game than Mississippi State. Plus, Ole Miss allows 8+ fewer points per game on defense. This gap reflects a stark difference between tournament contender and rebuilding team.
Offensive Firepower: Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
Let’s look at who’s doing the damage on offense. Ole Miss features RB Kewan Lacy, who’s absolutely been a workhorse. Lacy has rushed for 1,136 yards with 19 touchdowns. He’s scoring at a rate of 1 TD per 12 carries, which is explosive stuff. His 103.3 rushing yards per game leads the offensive attack.
Mississippi State counters with RB Davon Booth, who’s put up 547 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. Thing is, Booth also has 14 receptions for 158 yards and 2 more touchdowns. That’s valuable production, but it still trails Lacy‘s dominance significantly. On the passing side, Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss has thrown 14 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. Mississippi State QB Blake Shapen has 15 passing touchdowns against 8 interceptions.
Defensive Strength and Vulnerabilities
Defense will decide this game, though Ole Miss enters with a clear advantage. The Rebels have forced 6 interceptions and recorded 22 sacks. Mississippi State has just 12 interceptions but 20 sacks. The difference lies in turnovers. Ole Miss turns the ball over just 1.1 times per game while Mississippi State commits 1.3 turnovers per game.
Here’s what matters most for prediction. Mississippi State allows an ugly 28.4 points per game, ranked 95th nationally. Ole Miss can exploit that ruthlessly with their balanced attack. Run Lacy, throw occasional play-action, and let the defense rest.
Key Players to Watch
- Kewan Lacy (RB, Ole Miss) – 19 rushing TDs on 231 carries. He’s the heartbeat of this offense
- Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss) – 2,657 passing yards with 14 TDs and tight ball control. 65.2% completion rate shows consistency
- Brenen Thompson (WR, Mississippi State) – 47 receptions for 868 yards and 7 touchdowns total. Only bright offensive spot for State
- Blake Shapen (QB, Mississippi State) – 2,433 passing yards with 15 TDs but 8 interceptions. Turnover risk is real
Why Ole Miss Should Win This Game
Statistics suggest Ole Miss dominates this matchup convincingly. The 78% win probability from ESPN’s advanced models reflects a team that’s better everywhere. Ole Miss will control the line of scrimmage with Lacy’s running game. They’ll keep Mississippi State‘s struggling offense off the field. Plus, State absolutely needs this win for bowl eligibility, which puts pressure on them to force plays.
Mississippi State faces a desperate situation. They’re 5-6 and must win just to get to a bowl game. That desperation might create turnovers or reckless decisions. Ole Miss, conversely, can play patient, methodical football. They can lean on Lacy, control time of possession, and let their defense do its job.
The Mississippi State Question: Can They Pull Off The Upset?
Here’s the thing though. Rivalry games are unpredictable by nature. Lane Kiffin’s coaching future uncertainty has been a distraction for Ole Miss. If State can force turnovers early and jump out to a lead, they could steal this game. Brenen Thompson is a legitimate receiving threat who can make plays after the catch. That could open things up downfield if Shapen gets hot.
But statistically, the gap is just too large. Ole Miss scores more, defends better, and commits fewer turnovers. Mississippi State would need near-perfect execution and Ole Miss playing sloppy.
Sources
- ESPN College Football – Season statistics, playoff projections, and FPI prediction models
- Sports-Reference – Comprehensive team and player statistics for 2025
- Saturday Down South – TV information and prediction data for Egg Bowl 2025
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.