Arman Tsarukyan enters the Octagon as a heavy favorite against Dan Hooker. The UFC Fight Night main event goes down on Saturday, Nov 22 at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. This bout could reshape the entire lightweight title picture at 155 pounds. Both fighters are ranked in the top 10 at lightweight.
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🔥 Quick Facts:
- Tsarukyan is a -650 favorite according to FanDuel (nearly 5-to-1 odds).
- Hooker sits at +470 underdog odds for the November 22 showdown.
- Tsarukyan’s record stands at 22-3 with 4 consecutive wins.
- Hooker comes in at 24-12 riding 3 straight victories.
- Winner likely gets a shot at lightweight champion Ilia Topuria.
What Happened: A Title-Shot Showdown
Tsarukyan dominated the lightweight rankings this year. He beat Beneil Dariush and then faced legendary fighter Charles Oliveira and won. The Armenian fighter has been vocal about wanting a title shot. He’s ranked #1 in the lightweight division heading into this fight.
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Hooker is the #6 ranked lightweight coming off solid wins. The New Zealand fighter proved his durability and striking ability recently. He’s been candid about his underdog status saying any success here keeps him in the title picture.
This main event is do-or-die for both athletes. The victory doesn’t just offer bragging rights. It essentially secures the next spot in line for a title shot.
Why This Matters: The Title Picture Gets Clearer
The lightweight division needs clarity. Topuria holds the belt but fighters behind him are jostling for position. Tsarukyan winning would cement him as the obvious next challenger. Most experts think he’ll get the title shot immediately with a victory in Doha.
A Hooker upset would shake everything up. Major underdog wins make waves in fighting. But the oddsmakers aren’t giving him much of a chance. Still, he’s accepted the challenge knowing exactly what’s at stake.
You might remember the lightweight title scene has been loaded for years. Tsarukyan wants to finally break through to championship gold. Hooker simply wants to stay relevant at 155 pounds.
Fighter Statistics and Recent Form
Here’s how these two compare heading into Saturday night:
| Metric | Tsarukyan | Hooker |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 22-3-0 | 24-12-0 |
| Current Streak | 4 Consecutive Wins | 3 Consecutive Wins |
| UFC Ranking | #1 Lightweight | #6 Lightweight |
| Win Finish % | 63.6% | 45.8% |
| Betting Odds | -650 Favorite | +470 Underdog |
The numbers tell a clear story. Tsarukyan has the superior finishing rate and better rankings. Hooker brings experience but faces an opponent on a completely different level right now. The oddsmakers essentially consider this nearly a 5-to-1 mismatch.
Thing is, Hooker isn’t just showing up for a paycheck. He’s extremely tough and durable. His grappling and clinch control have improved significantly over recent years.
What Experts Are Saying
Most analysts expect Tsarukyan to dominate this fight. ESPN BET noted he could win inside the distance convincingly. Multiple expert picks lean toward Tsarukyan winning by decision or knockout.
- CBS Sports picks Tsarukyan as the heavy favorite.
- USA Today MMA Junkie experts back Tsarukyan strongly.
- Sports Illustrated notes the odds are very wide.
- DraftKings betting analysts favor a finish before round 3.5.
- ESPN MMA preview highlights Tsarukyan’s technical advantages.
But here’s what’s interesting. Some bettors are considering Hooker value at these odds. If he can survive the first 10 minutes and keep it close, strange things can happen in combat sports.
What Happens Next?
The winner of this fight advances directly into title-shot territory. Tsarukyan has been publicly demanding a shot against Topuria at lightweight champion. A victory Saturday likely secures that matchup.
Can you imagine Hooker pulling off the upset? It would send shockwaves through the lightweight division. He’d become a genuine threat to Topuria and force the entire championship equation to shift.
The gate implications matter too. UFC Qatar marks the first-ever UFC Fight Night in Qatar at ABHA Arena. The organization is expanding into new territories and wants big moments. Does a dominant Tsarukyan performance satisfy that? Or does Hooker create the memorable upset narrative?
Event Details
The main card starts at 1:00 PM ET on November 22. Prelims kick off at 10:00 AM ET. You can catch the action on ESPN+. Ian Machado Garry faces Belal Muhammad in the co-main event.
Who’s Favored and Will It Be Close?
Statistics suggest a Tsarukyan victory is highly likely. But combat sports constantly remind us why betting markets exist. Upsets happen. Technique and preparation matter more than rankings sometimes.
Hooker’s durability could keep this competitive. Tsarukyan loves fighting at high pace and landing ground strikes. If Hooker can frustrate him or catch him early, anything’s possible.
The truth? This fight will shape the next chapter of the lightweight title story. And that’s exactly why Saturday night matters for everyone watching.
Sources
- UFC Official – Event information, fighter rankings, and official statistics.
- FanDuel/DraftKings – Real-time betting odds and expert analysis.
- ESPN MMA – Fighter profiles, recent performance data, and expert predictions.
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.