The AFC playoff picture took dramatic shape after Week 11. The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots both own 9-2 records heading into the final stretch. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are surging hard into wild card contention at 6-5 after upsetting the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night. The race remains wide open with seven weeks remaining.
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🔥 Quick Facts:
- Broncos lead AFC with 9-2 record but hold 6-2 conference record tiebreaker advantage.
- Patriots hold 97% playoff probability per ESPN’s Football Power Index model.
- Texans defeated Bills 23-19 on Nov. 20 with backup QB Davis Mills throwing two TDs.
- Colts sit third with 8-2 record after dominant AFC South performance.
- Chiefs still alive despite 5-5 record but face must-win scenarios ahead.
AFC’s Power Duo Dominates Top Seed Race
The Broncos have captured the AFC’s top seed after an impressive eight-game winning streak. Their 6-2 conference record edges the Patriots at 5-2 in head-to-head tiebreakers. Denver’s consistency has impressed experts and analysts alike.
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The Patriots remain hot contenders despite being tied in overall wins. New England’s 97% playoff probability ranks highest of any AFC team. Both teams control their own destiny heading toward December’s critical matchups.
ESPN’s computer model gives Denver a 9.5% chance to win the Super Bowl. The Broncos earned a bye week advantage during the playoff race, giving them rest while competitors battle.
Current AFC Playoff Standings Through Week 11
The AFC playoff picture shows clear division among contenders and pretenders:
| Seed | Team | Record | Division Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denver Broncos | 9-2 | AFC West |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 9-2 | AFC East |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-2 | AFC South |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-4 | AFC North |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 7-4 | Wild Card |
| 6 | New York Chargers | 7-4 | Wild Card |
The Bills dropped to 7-4 after their upset loss to Houston. Buffalo now trails divisions leaders in the AFC East race. The Chargers hold the final wild card spot but face weekend battles.
Texans’ Breakthrough Win Shakes Up Wild Card Picture
The Houston Texans delivered a stunning 23-19 upset over the Bills on November 20. Backup quarterback Davis Mills orchestrated the win, improving to 3-0 as Houston’s starter. Mills completed passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns despite missing top receiver CJ Stroud.
The Texans defense dominated the game with eight sacks on Josh Allen.
Allen threw a game-ending interception on fourth down in the Texans red zone. The Bills had converted an incredible 4th and 27 with a lateral earlier in the drive. Houston now sits just half a game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars for the final wild card spot.
The Texans have now beaten Buffalo twice in consecutive seasons. Houston’s defense unit ranks No. 1 in the entire NFL despite playing without their star quarterback. This team remains dangerous in late-season playoff scenarios.
Which Teams Are Still in the Hunt?
The AFC wild card race remains incredibly tight heading into Week 12.
- Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) face elimination concerns but retain mathematical playoff chances.
- Baltimore Ravens (5-5) and Houston Texans (6-5) battle for positioning daily.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) currently hold the sixth seed ahead of the Texans.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) control their own destiny in the AFC North.
- Buffalo Bills (7-4) dropped after their shocking loss but retain 97% playoff probability.
Multiple teams remain alive for 12 playoff spots entering the final month. The AFC East will determine between New England and Buffalo which gets top wild card seeding.
What Determines AFC Supremacy Down the Stretch?
The race between Denver and New England hinges on conference records. Both teams have controlled powerful schedules through October and November. Their remaining opponents will determine final seeding.
Wild card contenders must win games against division rivals soon. The Texans’ No. 1 ranked defense proves they can beat anybody on Sunday. Houston’s offensive improvements under Mills suggest playoff viability despite quarterback challenges.
Can the Broncos maintain their winning streak through December? Will New England continue winning with perfect focus? The AFC playoff picture tells the story: consistency wins championships.
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.