42 replies to this topic

[thejohnnygold]

As Houston Rocket fans, we are all too familiar with the fickle nature of the human body and the fortunes lost and gained on the resilience, or frailty, each one possesses.  Ralph Sampson, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, and Steve Francis are just some of the big names associated with this franchise that were unable to fulfill their potential due to unforeseen bodily breakdown.  Hakeem's knees ultimately betrayed him, but not before he reached the pinnacle of the NBA and enjoyed a lengthy career--many stars are robbed of this opportunity by fate.  Whether it is the misfortune of having a body that simply could not bear the demands of the NBA or that one fatal misstep that mangles a joint beyond repair--this is the reality each player faces every time they walk on the court.

 

I bring this up in light of our myriad debates over Houston's future--a future most of us would like to see highlighted with the addition of another star to play next to James Harden and lead us to Finals glory.  Most any fan would agree this is the Tao of the NBA--The Way.  The evidence supports that this is true nearly all of the time, but is it so easy?

 

Avoiding the subject of circumstance, i.e. playing in Jordan's era, or something akin to that--I would point to injuries as the biggest obstacle any team must avoid in its' quest for success.  Further, as a GM of an NBA team one must balance the risk and reward of relying on one to three players to achieve success...more on this later.

 

I found the idea of tracing the history of injuries derailing potential champions to be a bit daunting.  Instead, I will rely on my memory and a brief list of this year's major injuries to make a point. (I am also hoping that collectively, you guys can fill in some obvious teams/players I overlooked).  I am focusing on season-ending and lengthy injuries only.

 

2013 Major Injuries By Team

Boston - Rondo, Sullinger

Hawks - Pachulia, Louis Williams

Bobcats - Brendan Haywood, Diop

Bulls - Rose*, R. Hamilton

Cavs - Varejao

Pistons - Maggette, Drummond

Warriors - Brandon Rush

Pacers - Granger, West (6 games so far)

Lakers - Jordan Hill, Howard**

Grizzlies - M. Gasol

Bucks - Mbah a Moute

Wolves - Love*, Roy*, Malcolm Lee

Hornets - Jason Smith, Eric Gordon*, Anthony Davis

Mavs - Nowitzki

Knicks - Stoudemire*

Magic - Afflalo, Glen Davis

Sixers - Bynum*, Jason Richardson

Suns - Gortat, Channing Frye

Blazers - Elliot Williams

Raptors - Bargnani

Wizards - Barbosa, Wall


Teams without significant injuries this year

Thunder (Parker?), Rockets, Heat, Nets (D. Williams ?), Nuggets, Kings, Clippers (Billups?)

 

Even these teams had injuries to contend with....sprained ankles, nagging injuries that limit the player's effectiveness, etc.

 

Above, I designated certain players with *.  This was to denote a player with a history of injuries beyond this year.  These players repeatedly have the hopes of a franchise pinned all, or in part, on them only to find themselves unable to perform.  Each situation is unique.  Derrick Rose's injury ended a potential championship run last year and has left the team in the middle of the pack with no legitimate shot this year (realistically, that is what...1/7th of his career and he may never be the same?).  Dwight Howard makes the list as his all-too-public shoulder injury cannot be ignored despite playing most of the season.

 

In the playoffs, injuries are even more devastating as there is so little time to recover most any injury becomes season-ending.

 

The odds of successfully navigating an NBA season without losing key players to injury are not good.  By my count, which is subjective, 16 of the above teams suffered an injury to a key player that conceivably ruined their season--whether the goal was to make the playoffs or to make the finals--and we still have about a dozen games left.  That is 16 out of 30 teams--53%--so far.

 

Compounding this with the relatively short window any one player has for winning championships each lost year is a huge portion of opportunity lost.  Fate shows no mercy.  It is no surprise that the list of previous champions is also a list of players that were able to stay healthy throughout their careers.

 

The point of all this fear-mongering (which is not my intent) brings us back to the General Manager and risk versus reward.  We know that Morey plays the odds.  In this scenario there are two sets of odds to look at.  The odds of winning a championship without a star or two and the odds of staying healthy long enough to get there.

 

I contend that the Rockets may be better served by stubbornly refusing to sacrifice depth in pursuit of this other star.  Further, any signing we make must afford and allow us to maintain ample depth and re-sign the talent we already have in house.  I have already argued that the Rockets current roster has the depth and talent to develop into a title contender.  Morey has constructed this roster with the flexibility to be able to shed any players that end up not reaching that potential with relative ease.  If Houston adds a player it must be with great prudence for we are one step away from a lost season every single day.  By having strong depth at each position this risk is limited to Harden right now--and with the addition of one of the players listed below could be considered almost negligible.

 

The Rocket's future is bright and I am all for another star.  I think the list of players that fit this list over the next two free agency periods is limited to these names (based on ability and there being a realistic chance to sign them):

 

Dwight Howard

Chris Paul (really small, but I read a post earlier that convinced me it's not so crazy)

Josh Smith (I know it pains many of you, but he has the goods that, combined with everything else we have, will get us there)

 

I'm sorry, but The Lebrons aren't breaking up and no one else is on that level.  If we miss on those three (Howard, Paul, Smith) I believe it will be small moves, if any, until 2015.  In my opinion, that free agency class is superior in available talent plus we will have lots of financial options as a lot of money is potentially coming off the books.

 

Until then, let us all think positive thoughts about the legs, arms, backs, heads, and feet of our guys.  It's one thing to fall short because another team bests yours--it's a worse experience to watch time eat away opportunity and potential without ever giving it the chance to succeed--something we all know too well.

[timetodienow1234567]

I'm not so sure that the Lebron's won't break up. I have heard from most every analyst that both DWade and LBJ are going to opt out for more money or to re-sign for longer deals. Bosh might too. If Lebron James leaves and goes to Cleveland I think Bosh and Miami part ways. Bosh is a third option, not a second option on a team vying for a championship. They would re-sign Wade and go after a Josh Smith and surround them with role players. That would change the landscape drastically. We could get Bosh if we're willing to give him the MAX, but I woudn't like that for our team. 

[2016Champions]

So many of those guys would have been okay if they didn't try to be a "tough guy" and rush back from injury instead of following a timeline recommended by a physical therapist. As I personal trainer I have helped alot of clients recover from injury and I know that you usually feel like you're fully healed when you're 70-80%, and it's a lot safer to give it a little extra time and work on strengthening in the gym because you're never actually 100% until you feel like you're 120%. 

[thejohnnygold]

I guess we'll find out about Lebron....it doesn't matter much since in your scenario he isn't coming to Houston and Bosh at that point in his career doesn't interest me.

 

Regarding the physical therapy...I guess I am looking at this from the franchise's point of view not the players'....yes, they should get themselves healthy before playing again, but the point is that injuries are rampant and depth is crucial to success--that, or being lucky enough to get a star who doesn't get hurt.

[phaketrash]

Well written JG. I vacillated between agreeing and disagreeing with you throughout your whole post, but I think I agree with your conclusion. Out of the 3 players you named, I think we throw the barn at CP3 and D12. Both have a history of injuries, but they are not as troublesome as others. JSmoove I'm on the fence about, depending on a lot of other variables. Waiting till 2014 or even 2015 is otherwise okay with me.

 

Your notion that teams can be derailed if certain players get injured is of course correct, but your real point seems to me to be that we thus should not put all our eggs in one basket, unless that is a basket TOO GOOD to pass up. I agree. Besides, more depth and role players = lowering risk, and thus might get us to the same place. Excepting the aforementioned 3 players, you generally believe the benefit of getting that second 'allstar' may not be worth the risk, especially when compared to the alternative option of better role players/depth/waiting it out for a star later on. Here is where I disagree a bit. Waiting for a star later on (maybe one not as prone to injury or just plain too amazing) I agree with, but adding more depth and role players INSTEAD...I am more hesitant about. Packaging talent into one player = greater benefit, although also greater risk.

 

Also, players are not all equal when it comes to potential injuries. Some stars have a knack for never getting injured (almost), or not in a way that a team crumbles. Kobe Bryant and Lebron James easily come to mind. KD hasn't been in the league as long, but he seems similarly robust. Dwight before last summer would definitely be on this list. These are players, however, that I assume you would have (at one time or another) placed on the list with CP3 and JSmoove. A bevy of role players would not stand up to LBJ as well, one where talent is neatly packaged together in one individual who also happens to never get injured. Damn you LBJ.

 

On Bosh, I'd pay him max and think he could be the odd man out next yr. Miami trading him before the deadline would be the 'smart' move as they can't really keep all 3 together -- too prohibitively expensive, and they don't have TV deals like LAL that net them $220M lol. But they prob won't trade Bosh, even if it means he opts out and leaves in the summer, because they always have a shot at the title -- that isn't worth risking mid-season. If we can sign Bosh and NOT give up talent/assets for him, then we have a contender. Lin/Harden/Parsons/Bosh/Asik, with our current depth and bench. Maybe make a few moves to get role players that fit our needs a bit better as we're then stacked at the 4. I likey.

 

I really do hope we get CP3 now, more than D12, just because Asik > Lin. Lin is good enough that he's marketable now, esp. if coupled w/ TRob. CP3/Harden/Parsons/Millsap or someone similar/Asik with Bev/Anderson/TJones/DMo/GSmith off the bench? Get outta here! haha

[thejohnnygold]

Thanks for the thorough reply.

 

I thought I alluded to the stars that can stay healthy in the first post...if not I certainly meant to and forgot.  Pretty sure I did though.

 

I am cautioning against putting our eggs in one basket--especially if that basket is injury-prone or over-rated.  I think I see our team differently than others.  I keep getting the words "role players" in reply to my posts.  I get why people use that term, but I am not certain it is a blanket statement that applies to our team.  Stars are stars because they are popular.  The Rockets, by this metric, already have two stars--Harden and Lin.  Further, Parsons fits the mold of future sidekick as he has a tremendous all around game and the self-confidence as well as the confidence from his teammates to be a strong, nightly contributor.  Asik is an elite defender and is developing a respectable offensive game.  Our young PF's have huge upside and either one could wind up an all-star down the road.  So, I don't get this role player talk.  We've got a full team.  I'll give Beverley is a role player.  I'll give Greg Smith is a role player--for now...that recent article has me intrigued.  Delfino is a role player.  James Anderson has loads of potential too, but for now we can label him a role player.  Francisco Garcia is going away so I am not worried about him.  Aaron Brooks is also a role player--forgot him.  Of these role players I'd be willing to part with Brooks and Delfino pretty easily--not so much anyone else.

 

I guess what I am championing is the crazy notion of developing a team from the ground up with depth, and chemistry, and familiarity.  The pieces are all here.  We have enough physical talent at every single position.  We have access to amazing coaches and facilities.  Let's do this.  I think the only reason to bring someone in (note, not by trade) is if they are on that next tier of talent that transcends 98% of the NBA.  Otherwise, let's roll with the guys we've got.  Let's develop their strengths and weaknesses.

 

If someone gets hurt, we can absorb the hit, and keep going forward because we are a unit that is strong down to the 12th man.  This isn't settling for mediocrity--it's demanding excellence across the board.  I won't argue against the idea that having star players makes a team very good--of course it does.  I am saying there is another way.  We have our "stars".  What a championship team needs above stardom is great players all over the floor.  We're well on our way.  Let New York, Brooklyn, and LA fight over the "stars".  I'll take 12 great players that can learn to play as one any day.

 

Mostly, I really like this team--I like our guys, and our coach, and our front office.  I want to actually watch them grow and develop because I've got a good feeling about this group.  If we mess with it it has to be for an elite player--nothing less.  The bonus is, if we do keep it together we will be virtually injury-proof (knocking on wood).  Right now, there are about 16 NBA teams that wish they were.

[phaketrash]

I think you did allude to those players earlier on. I didn't mean that they weren't mentioned -- it was more to push my other point, which I'll highlight more in this post as I only touched on it before.

 

I understand how you view our team and how it is strong enough in your opinion that we don't need to change it except for the best of the best. I'm close to agreement here, though I think my threshold for "best of the best" is lower. That's because I view the situation a bit differently. If we were at the cap, I would not be advocating for trades to make our team better. I love our team and our position. No cap money, I would not be screaming for changes. I'd feel good and even think hey, in a few yrs, we might have a shot at a championship in a darkhorse sort of way!

 

But that isn't the case. We do have cap room. A lot of it. So the question for me becomes, what is the better use for that asset? To acquire the best player I can or a bunch of 'role players'? As I mentioned before, packaging talent into one player instead of spreading it out is much, much more valuable. Like LBJ vs. 3 other players who each do 1 thing as well as LBJ, but separately. They'd be great players to have on a team, no doubt, but I'd also doubtlessly rather have LBJ (even with the increased risk due to injury). Of course, this is a misleading example since we both agree LBJ would easily fit into the 'best of the best' situation. My real point was that, as we DO have cap room, I want us to spend it, and since we're spending it, I'd rather we spend it on one very good player (or maybe two very good players after some moves with our current roster -- if doing so would improve our team). My frame of reference in a way is different.

 

On your comment of role players, I see how you are viewing it, but I think that is just a slightly more confusing structure. You yourself said that you get why people call them 'role players'...we lump them together for convenience haha. Superstars, allstars, role players, bench. Stars are in that category not so much for fame only, but elite skill that really makes them stand out. Allstars are those great players that could lead teams to championships if you have a number of them or some combination, but 1 allstar = 'ship seems rare (if it has ever occurred at all). Among role players, there are good ones and bad ones; ones that are defensive specialists and ones that are not. As a categorical structure, I'd certainly put everyone but Harden into the role player category. Harden is a star. We have no all stars (yet). Parsons could become one, etc., but not yet. Just getting on the allstar ballot is not what I mean though lol.

[2016Champions]

This must be what a conversation between Zach Lowe and Bill Simmons would look like. Seriously, this is definitely a higher level of NBA forum discussion than what I'm accustomed to. 

[rockets best fan]

thejohnnygold:

i'm more of the mind of phaketrash. while it is possible to win the title with 1 star and a bunch of roll players it's the exception not the rule. the first time houston won the title hakeem was our only superstar. however if we don't trade for clyde the next year we don't win that next one. the year after the 2nd championship we were poised to chase another one, but cassel and horry got hurt. neither was a star, but without them we did not have enough firepower to 3peat. it is much easier to win with 2 or 3 stars than 1. it guarantees nothing, but it does make it easier. depth on a team is good, but while it does offer some insurance against injury...it also means that more players have to be at the top of their games to get the job done. the more moving part a machine has the more likely it is the break down. even if we have the right role players.... an injury to the wrong one can still wash out a year. case in point dallas year b4 last. while dirk was their star without either chandler or terry they win nothing. just like superstars get hurt other players do to. winning a championship involves a little luck and no matter how you try to sheild yourself from it injury is one thing you must be lucky at avoiding. i'm all for finding players who seem to avoid injury, but make no mistake about it we need a star. I like our present team also, but have not decieved myself into thinking we will be good enough to win the title. we still lack some of the ingredients necessary for the championship puzzle and not all of the problem can be fixed by role players. true one of our youngsters may develope into a star, but that is at least 3 years down the road (IMO). I am of the belief that the more ways you have to win the more likely you are to win. if we add a star player to this team and one of our younger players develope into a star it gives us more ways to win (IMO) therefore we are more likely to win.

[phaketrash]

@RBF

 

I agree. More players = greater spread of variability, which is itself an increased type of risk. Does it outweigh the possibility of injury of one player? No idea -- sounds like advanced mathematics to me, and I went to law school because I heard there would be NO MATH there haha.

 

The other two values we have to weigh though would be, as commonly mentioned on these forums, whether adding another player that is NOT a star becomes more detrimental because it inhibits the growth of our rookies. There are a lot of moving parts here, like how many minutes would the rookies be losing, place on depth chart, and how many minutes are actually needed to determine ceiling (ex: we all seemed pretty comfortable w/ where we thought 2Pat's ceiling was). Certainly having a star makes this downside much more palatable. 

 

But the first step of acquiring a superstar, if possible, is something we all certainly agree on lol. 

[thejohnnygold]

Excellent stuff. I think we all agree on a lot of things...Where to start?...

 

I 100% agree that 1 star player is better than 3 role players (i.e. LBJ vs whoever)--and acquiring players of that caliber is a no-brainer regardless of injury risk (unless there is substantial history--Love, Bynum, Gordon, Stoudemire).

 

I recognize that Josh Smith is beneath this threshold; however, he gets a pass from me because he is a perfect fit for Houston and its needs.  For another team, offering Smith a max contract--or any contract--makes less sense.  I won't repeat my reasons as we are all aware of them, but I think Smith takes this team to that top level with OKC, MIA, & SAS.

 

I am torn on the cap situation--unfortunately, I don't understand it nearly well enough to speak about it properly.  My concern is that signing one of these players turns us into a short-term package.  If we cannot afford to retain guys like Parsons, D-Mo/T-Rob, Lin, Asik, etc. in two years when contracts start expiring then I fear for our continued success and this is why...

 

As RBF referenced, Dirk doesn't win without Chandler and Terry.  I agree.  Where I disagree is that they are role players.  I would say those guys were top 10 at their respective positions and were playing a role.  Raja Bell is a role player.  Jason Terry spent years leading a Hawks offense that was quite potent.  He stepped back to play a role.  Ray Allen has done the same thing over the years.  Chandler is a beast and Cuban made a fatal blunder not paying him, IMO.  That guy makes any team considerably better.

 

When I look at the Rockets roster, I see guys who will play roles for us, but fall into the category of players that are above that level.  The Daily Grind piece on Chandler Parsons endorses this notion--and he will get his opportunity to prove it very soon.  His success is dependent on playing alongside Lin and Harden--in that same light, the rockets' success, both present and future, is dependent on having a guy like Parsons.

 

Moving on, I am in no way endorsing using our cap room for "role players"--I think that was something I originally meant to go into more and got sidetracked.  I think my main thought--which got lost in the crazy that is my mind--was what if we don't use the cap space at all because we miss on those three guys (CP3, D12, and J.Smith (I can't call him JSmoove...I don't know why))?  Is that the best course of action?  That allows us to watch these guys grow into what I believe will be an elite team and when the time comes, we re-sign them with ease and chug forward for the next 4+ years.  Patience is a lost art in the NBA--and pro sports in general--and I am hoping Morey is going to turn back the clock on that.  Now, one savvy veteran--like Grant Hill--certainly would be a nice addition for everything he could bring to the team (mostly intangibles), but we don't need a bunch of average, mid-level veterans clogging the bench.

 

I get that Star Players are popular largely because of their abilities-- I didn't mean to down play that so much.  I would argue that many of these stars are individual talents and do not add much to a team beyond what they can accomplish individually.  Carmelo is an easy target for this idea.  Monta Ellis too.  I just don't think they make a team better collectively and to hitch one's wagon to them is a terrible mistake--one day, they will become the Tyson Chandler and Jason Terry to someone else's Dirk.  Again, this is a criteria that the three free agents I like fit.  CP3 is obvious, Howard makes team defense easier, gives our guards an easy pick n roll partner, rebounds, and can keep defenses from closing out on our wings.  Smith is a willing and able passer who currently assists on 21.2% of his teams baskets while playing elite defense on the wings and can create his own shot.  He will benefit from the same thing Mr. Parsons does--playing alongside Harden and Lin who take the defensive focus away from him.  Josh Smith gets better on the Rockets.  Dwight would also get a huge boon in our system.  Paul just makes us better--no offense to Lin, but Paul is the best PG in the league and would actually be able to alleviate some of the pressure Harden gets....imagine that.

 

After those guys, I think just about any "star" player we could get would be like buying a sofa for a living room that is already full of nice furniture that just hasn't been broken in yet.

 

I understand the inevitability of injury--which is why I am leaning this way.  I also understand the need for elite talent.  My point is the necessity of balancing those needs.

 

Talking about balancing needs takes me back to the notion of signing Mayo, Blatche (for much cheaper than the $12M I originally stated...that was a bit high), and trading the odd man out at PF to Denver for Jordan Hamilton...this puts us in the Dallas mold for winning as each of those guys will become role players, but are all above role player quality in one regard or another.  Having those three smaller contracts also allows us to maintain the ability to re-sign the guys we need to moving forward without being burdened by one big contract (like Smith's, Howard's, or CP3's will be) as we will still be under the cap.  This also mitigates our injury risk down to almost zero.  There are still minutes to go around for everyone (mostly), our young guys get a little more time to develop, and we are contenders for a long, long while.  I just can't find anything wrong with this except that we don't have one of the three coveted stars above.  As a plan B--I love it.

 

I have to laugh at myself--I feel like a crazy person simultaneously arguing for and against three different ideals.  The thing is--I think all three are completely viable options.  I can't find any compelling reason to dislike any of these directions should Houston choose that route.  Each has small drawbacks, but they are minor in comparison to what we gain.

 

One side note: the odds of our guys reaching the all-star game are slim--besides Harden.  Lin has to compete against Curry, Lillard, and Rubio for the foreseeable future in the popularity contest.  Parsons might have a chance, but guys like Fareid, Leonard, and Batum will fight for that.  Point being, they don't have to make the game to be all-star level talents.  In fact, it will be easier to re-sign them and keep the team together if they don't...which is good for us.

 

Bearing in mind that we have this cap space burning a hole in our pockets and my belief that we have no shot at the "Heatles" my preferences go in this order:

 

Sign D12, Smith, or CP3 (in that order)

 

Sign a trio of above average role players to moderate contracts still leaving a little wiggle room under the cap.

 

Wait until 2015.

 

Continue endlessly debating Houston's options and potential because I have a fanatical obsession with this sport and that team

[thejohnnygold]

Edit: accidentally posted twice

[phaketrash]

Great post, but it's hard for me to write too much in response because, as you said, I think we are mostly in agreement hahaha. Other posters on red94 might chime in on signing JSmith () but you know I am for that signing. Would love it if he agreed to come for less than the max though...$17M for JSmith is a tough pill to swallow. Obviously CP3 or D12 > that option though.

 

Your comments on Jason Terry and Ray Allen and Raja Bell and Tyson Chandler I sort of disagree with. I can't help but put Terry into a role player category, while Ray Allen certainly is/was much more than that. If Ray Allen is the 2nd option on your team, you're probably in a much better place than if Jason Terry were. Chandler...mm I mean, he's sort of like a role player, but not really, since he is literally one of the best defensive big men in the league. So is Asik. I feel similarly about the two of them, and an argument can be made about their value or categorization on a team. I do not want to trade Asik. Unless it is Dwight, I hope we keep that gem of a player.

 

The main difference in our opinion is the part about signing Mayo and Blatche, etc. Where you said you would be okay with a Plan B that allowed our young players to develop (the patience and Grant Hill paragraph) I absolutely agree with. Strike out on CP3/D12 and maybe JSmoove, I'd rather wait, even if it meant to 2015. But wouldn't signing Mayo and Blatche mess with our 2015 plans just as much? Or are you simply advocating for 2 yr deals that end in 2015, and only skip over 2014? I only really have my eyes on Bosh for 2014 -- otherwise, I think it is mostly correct that no one else is coming Houston's way via FA in that offseason.

 

You see, I don't love the Dallas model for winning. It seems riskier to me. If Dallas had kept that same together 1 more yr, do you feel like they could have beaten the Heat or OKC and won another ring? Their win the first time already felt improbable. As RBF alluded to, more moving pieces, more variability and risk in that way. Chemistry has to be built with even more players as well. Your Plan B (Blatche, Hamilton, Mayo) is a fine idea -- I just prefer not committing to that even more, and holding out for an allstar caliber player. To make it a bit more clear, I will also go with my preferences:

 

Sign CP3, D12, maybe JSmith depending on a few circumstances (in that order)

 

Rent a player/contracts for picks/etc. and wait till 2014 for someone like Bosh 

 

Strike out in 2014, then go for another big player in 2015

 

If the signing of Blatche and Mayo and Hamilton trade were short term, i.e., ending in 2015, I could support that move as well, as signing Bosh outright is tricky/slightly improbable.

[2016Champions]

Is it even possible to go for another big player in 2015 if we resign Asik, Lin and Parsons? 

[Steven]

Some of your guys posts are like trying to read a Bill Simmons article. I'm sure there are good points in there with good insights based in great analytics, but just too many words. Anyway y'all can do a recap for dummies?

[thejohnnygold]

My view on the signing of the trio of Mayo, Blatche, and Hamilton (via trade) is under this base assumption:

 

Mayo 4 years for $6-8M

Blatche 4 years for $7-10M (I know a lot of people think that is too high, but he brings a lot to the table)

Hamilton who is signed through 2015 at roughly $1.2M next year and $2.1M the last year.

 

All totaled, that is between $14M-$19M (depends on the cap as to what we can actually offer, but that seems reasonable).  This is roughly the same as a max contract, but the beauty of this is it is in smaller pieces which should be easier to move if needed.  We can package one piece in a trade to clear space to re-sign a core player.  We can move a piece that isn't fitting in.  Hamilton is cheap and expires in 2015 so no worries there.  Mayo is a top 10 SG that would not be hard to move.  Blatche is an athletic, productive, young big man and would also be easy to move if need be.  Their collective contribution would not be equal to one Lebron, but it definitely exceeds a Millsap or Love--maybe even a J. Smith.

 

I like the injury protection.  I like the depth.  I like the flexibility.  I like that Harden could rest a bit and Mayo isn't a huge drop-off at SG.

 

Now, after watching Greg Smith tonight and reading the interview with him that was posted recently I am off the Blatche train.  He is close to putting it together.  He had some butterfingers and didn't go to the hoop as strong as he could have on some plays; however, he also had a lot of bad passes to deal with and is still learning.  He still posted 18 & 19 and that could have easily been 26-20.  Wow.  He looks confident.  I'm on board with Smith.  Blatche is out.

 

D-Mo looked awful tonight.  That was discouraging.  I hope he gets back on track soon.

 

So, no Blatche kind of messes with the whole plan .  I'll need to think a bit on a new one...

 

2016Champions, in 2015 there is a good chance one of Lin and Asik are let go (maybe we try and trade them).  Here is a link to our payroll situation.  It's hard to speculate right now.  What do you think?

[phaketrash]

@2016 and JG

 

Will be interesting indeed to see the scenarios that we might be able to conjure up for HOU lol. As far as 2015, I think keeping Lin and Asik and Parsons will be tough. It is almost like a player option situation -- Asik will cost more, Parsons will cost a LOT more, and Lin will either cost more (if he gets better) or be in a position where we aren't that excited about signing him (but thus more cheap). 2015, so many moving pieces, hard for me to even imagine what Morey might/could do.

 

@Steven

 

Haha a lot of what we wrote tended to re-affirm something the person above us already said, since we're all like 90-95% in agreement lol.

[rockets best fan]

@thejohnnygold/phaketrash

I agree on plan A we should chase howard/cp3 in that order.........no j-smith option for me

I also agree with plan B renting cap space/signing 1 years contracts and waiting for 2014

plan C is where we start to differ. we can not wait till 2015. if we do we risk having to use our cap room to keep the present team together. this is my main problem with that.............we can exceed the cap to resign our own players because we own their bird rights. we can not exceed the cap to sign a player from another team. to make a long story short....if we don't use our cap room in the next 2 years we lose it. we don't have the option of waiting till 2015. we must take advantage of the situation while it's available. if we are unable to get a star in FA in this window of time we must again look to trades to chase said star. that means giving up assets I would prefer to keep. my plan C is try harder on plan A & B  if still no suscess then see who is on the trade market at that time and go from there. however filling the roster with role players does not interest me unless it's a short term fix. we need a star. also JG I want to point out that the 2 star model for a team is perfect. it still allows us room to resign our own players. if we have 2 players making 15/16 mil per.....that's only 32 mil.....the cap will be around 60 mil.......we still have plenty of room to sign players to put around our stars. miami's problem is they have 3 stars making this much so they don't have a lot of room to put players around them. if we are able to get the additional star we need I don't worry about role players because morey can find role players in his sleep. he is very good at finding cheap talent to fill special roles.

[2016Champions]

I think we will get either Josh Smith or Millsap assuming Dwight and Cp3 resign. When 2015 comes we will resign Asik, Lin, and Parsons, and if there ever comes a day we had to trade one of them for salary reasons it will probably be Lin because he's not as hard to replace. At some point we will also trade one or two of our PF's away for picks or include them in a package for an upgrade so we don't have to worry about resigning them. We're not going to sign Mayo or Blatche or anyone like that, but we will find a useful bench player next year using our MLE, and in 2016 we will be champions

[thejohnnygold]

RBF, I appreciate that you don't like the idea of having a team loaded with talent top to bottom.  I don't appreciate you preaching the two star system to me like I don't understand it.  If you recall, My preference is exactly for that.  Now, we differ in that I still believe a team that isn't star-laden can thrive (ahem, Indiana/Memphis) when there is a high talent level across the board.

 

I know we aren't signing Mayo, Blatche, Hamilton...I have already said Blatche is out anyways.

 

I know there are glass-half-empty kind of guys--and that's fine--we need the balance.  Still, I think it is easy to come down on other people's ideas--especially when they are willing to put them out in the open.  We agree on the plan, RBF--where you stop and say, "we'll go from there if that doesn't work", I went ahead and put forth an idea based on that premise.  I would love to hear your ideas too.  I know you like Cousins.  He intrigues me, but I will be watching next year to see if he is growing up or getting worse.  If we strike out on "the stars" then what?  I have always had a rule--if you don't like an idea you have to put another one forth in its place...it's only fair.   So, presuming Plan A & B (and your version of C ) don't work--what do you think is a plan the Rockets can execute that uses our cap--which you point out is important--in a better way?