Do we need another star?
Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:04 PM
Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:22 PM
I think most on red94 agree that they would prefer not to throw max dollars at a B-tier player this offseason (i.e., Josh Smith), but you will get some variance as to what the alternative should be.
Personally, I think we throw the bank at Dwight Howard (since we have a bank's worth of cash to throw). Obv. same could be said for CP3, but the chances of getting him are 0% lol. So if we fail in getting Dwight, I would prefer getting a 1 yr rental in a player like Pau Gasol or something. This is only if he comes cheap because us not getting Dwight almost certainly means LAL got him. If LAL got Dwight, their payroll will be so dang high w/ the luxury tax that they'd be nearly paying $30M or something to keep Pau, who they hardly need as he doesn't fit in great with their current system (and LAL's recent success has come w/o him). With Dwight, Pau becomes more expendable. If they amnesty him, we have a great shot of winning that bid and OBVIOUSLY should go for it. If they want to trade, I would not give up DMo or the like to rent Pau -- more of a salary dump on our end if possible.
If that doesn't work out, guess we rent out our cap space for something. I, too, would not want to settle for the 2013 FA leftovers. Would rather wait for the awesome 2014 class, where we would still have a great shot at landing a second star. I differ with a lot of ppl on red94 in that I am not as big of a fan of the lottery system nor the home-grown system. DMo has potential, so does TRob, some love TJones, etc., which is all great, but that route takes both a lot of patience and optimism. I am short on both
Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:24 PM
You're right...and I don't think he will do it without being sure it is a good decision. I'd say he has proven he knows how to evaluate talent vs. cost. He won't suddenly push his chips all-in unless he feels it's a sure thing.
I am comfortable either way as I like our cupboard full of young talent....in two years we could easily be where the Thunder are now.
Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:30 PM
Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:53 PM
Harden is the longest tenured of the starting 5 and has proven he is a star. Parsons has proven he is the glue guy that can do whatever is needed (score, limit best scorer on other team, rebound, assist). Asik is the DPOY candidate that can contribute a double double (right now essentially Howard-lite). That means the two weakest points are PG and PF. However, both guys are young (both age and experience). There is not many PGs out there that would be an upgrade for Lin and while you could upgrade PF, DMo has shown a lot of promise of becoming (for all intents and purposes) a cross of Pau and Dirk. That really limits the players I think the Rockets should/could get.
Like Steven, I don't care for Howard because of the drama constantly surrounding him, plus as I said, we essentially have the lite version already. Bynum would actually be better (if it wasn't for the injuries) because he has a better offensive game and is still young. I actually like the ability to platoon Pau with Asik, DMo and TRob. Honestly, I think that would be the best move the Rockets could make at this time. It gives you an All-star caliber player with playoff-experience, and addresses two big points of need (PF and backup C). Then go out and grab a solid wing defender to come off the bench (ala Courtney Lee but bigger), and I think you have a solid team.
SG Harden/Lin/Cheap FA
SF Parsons/Defensive Wing Player
I put Lin as back-up SG because I think playing him with Beverly, Defensive Wing, TRob and Gasol could be a pretty deadly line-up (provided players grow as expected)
Posted 07 March 2013 - 10:13 PM
I just don't know if Gasol will be much of an upgrade by next year over our current young guys. To me, all that would do is take away minutes from D-Mo an T-Rob and hinder their development.
He may not be as far as talent (although he relies on skill not athleticism so that slows the decay), but he is astronomically ahead as far as experience. He could serve as a mentor to DMo, and he can help anchor the back-up C position when Asik needs a rest (not quite as good defensively, but better than what we got)
Posted 07 March 2013 - 10:47 PM
Whoah, I think Pau would be a huge upgrade over our current 4's and nearly non-existent backup C. Dude was a top 5 PF just 2 yrs ago, and his passing skills and ability to score in the low block is still very, very impressive. Only concern here is health. If healthy, I am not worried because as pharmag noted, Gasol relies more on skill than athleticism, which esp. for a big is super awesome as they get older.
Instead, I think too many people wayyyy overvalue potential. There are only 2 good arguments I can see for a no Gasol move, assuming we strike out otherwise and he is healthy and cheap/available:
1) Take time away from DMo and TRob. This is true, but Gasol playing say 30 minutes with some time behind Asik still leaves plenty of time for DMo and TRob, esp. depending on our lineups. They get an experienced mentor. More importantly, Gasol (assuming healthy) would make us at least a 4 seed in the West and likely 2nd rounder in the playoffs. That is invaluable playoff experience that our young team may not otherwise get. For a 1 yr rental that then allows us to have max cap space for 2014 FA? Yes please over essentially letting that cap space sit there and rot (outside of signing some cheap veteran role players to 1 yr deals, as I am sure Morey will do -- but he'd do that anyways so...).
2) Gasol can't run with our team and thus does not fit in our system. Same can almost be said about Dwight, except Dwight has the tools to run, unlike Gasol. I don't care much for this argument because I think we will inevitably have to slow down our pace. It just doesn't work in a playoff 7 game series, or if it does, just for one series. You need a halfcourt game. Having the ability to play a halfcourt game with a great passing big down in the post...yes, I would like our team to LEARN how to do that as well, even as we keep up a brisk (albeit somewhat slower) pace and get transition points.
Posted 07 March 2013 - 10:51 PM
A lot of people complain about Dwight this year, about how he is a baby and moody and has attitude problems. That does affect players sometimes, but I don't like putting too much weight on it. Again, I honestly believe it is only a problem when a team is losing or on the border. Winning makes everything and everyone fun. If we aren't winning with Dwight, something else is wrong haha.
Saying Dwight is overly reliant on his athleticism, which has slipped this yr, is akin to saying he isn't 100% healthy. That's fine, and true, but again, he is still a top player this yr in his CURRENT STATE. Top 5 FG%, top 5 blocks, and #1 in rebounds (last time I checked). All while having one of his "worst seasons." Hmm...
And getting Dwight just uses our cap space while acquiring a VERY TRADEABLE ASSET. Asik doesn't disappear unless we decide to trade him. Who cares if he plays fewer minutes? As long as the team is winning and doing better. The only question becomes, can there be more value created in keeping Asik or trading him (same can be said for Howard), and the argument that the max cap could have been better spent on something else. I am all ears to what that something else can be.
Posted 07 March 2013 - 11:17 PM
Gasol is 32 yrs old and is deteriorating in athleticism and skill-set compared to where he was a few yrs ago. He does not fit with our young, athletic team.
lol no offense to your post or your opinions, which you're totally entitled to have...but this comment sort of completely ignores everything I typed haha.
Posted 07 March 2013 - 11:35 PM
Posted 07 March 2013 - 11:43 PM
I just don't think that Gasol makes us that much better of a team. And the payoff of it hindering the development of our young guys, to me, makes it not worth bringing him in. I would rather our young guys get the minutes and the experience as I don't think Gasol makes us a contender, so what's the point of bringing him in?
I agree somewhat with timetodie that McHale does seem to favor vets a bit, so not sure how many minutes Gasol would technically steal...but of course he will steal some noticeable amount. That's fine -- like I said in my post, I saw 2 reasons why someone may not want Gasol if other avenues don't work out, and your comment is exactly what I addressed in 1):
"Take time away from DMo and TRob. This is true, but Gasol playing say 30 minutes with some time behind Asik still leaves plenty of time for DMo and TRob, esp. depending on our lineups. They get an experienced mentor. More importantly, Gasol (assuming healthy) would make us at least a 4 seed in the West and likely 2nd rounder in the playoffs. That is invaluable playoff experience that our young team may not otherwise get. For a 1 yr rental that then allows us to have max cap space for 2014 FA? Yes please over essentially letting that cap space sit there and rot (outside of signing some cheap veteran role players to 1 yr deals, as I am sure Morey will do -- but he'd do that anyways so...)."
^so that is the thinking you disagree with, which is fine, but having $20M in cap space sit there is, sadly, a waste of an asset. That would be an untenable strategy, esp. in Morey's eyes, as it is not utilizing an asset and maximizing value. He'd do something with that cap space, prob sign veterans on 1 yr deals (like Delfino types)...which is great, but will inevitably take some minutes away from the young players as well.
Posted 08 March 2013 - 12:13 AM
So let the cap space sit until there is a free agent star that we actually want. Even is this is 4-5 yrs from now that's fine. Then Harden, Parsons, and Lin are in their prime.
Actually, that wouldn't work since Lin's and Parson's contracts would end. Parsons would be highly sought after, and while it may be possible to keep Lin (should we choose to do so) at the current price, it seems unlikely. If he gets better, as we hope, he'd be worth more. If he's not better, as we fear, we have less of a reason to want to retain his services. Parsons will obviously cost like almost 10x more than he does now, so our cap space would have been wasted (or at least part of it).
One reason cap space is an asset because using it then re-signing someone with bird rights allows you to also go above it. It is like if your dept has an annual budget...you spend it all no matter what because if you don't, next yr's budget is lower This isn't as harsh as that, but cap space sitting around is useless until it is used ( ). Morey might do nothing in 2013 FA and just make some trade deadline moves somewhat similar to this yr (but more emphasis on moves like taking Garcia's K) in exchange for maybe picks. I could see that too, and that's a fine alternative...but I think those sorts of opportunities are getting fewer and fewer.
Posted 08 March 2013 - 12:24 AM
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