A Little Love For PPat!
#1
Posted 13 February 2013 - 03:03 PM
"X factor: Patrick Patterson is the perfect power forward for Houston, and he's criminally underrated. He hits corner 3-pointers and is the best big man running the floor in the NBA this side of Nikola Pekovic (1.43 points per play in transition, ninth in the NBA, per Synergy). He knows exactly how and when to cut in the Rockets' complex pick-and-roll. He torched David Lee all night to the tune of 12 points on 6-of-9 shooting."
As much as we have lamented our PF position we might be better off than we think. These guys are still maturing and people are starting to take notice. They don't have to be stars--just studs--for us to succeed.
#2
Posted 13 February 2013 - 03:07 PM
http://www.facebook....&type=3
#3
Posted 13 February 2013 - 04:04 PM
I'm not implying he is so valuable as to not consider trading him. I am saying, within the context of the Rockets, he has a lot of value as he fits our system very, very well. Plus, as I said before he is still getting better...
Consider the Miami Heat. They have Udonis Haslem. Among other PF's in this league he is an afterthought, but they consider him invaluable.
#4
Posted 13 February 2013 - 04:37 PM
We have noted before, in other threads, that our PF's pretty much split the time 50/50. If PPat were played like a "top" PF we'll assume he gets 39 minutes (which, luckily enough, is excactly 50% more than the 26 he gets now) we can pretty much (I know it's a slippery slope) extrapolate these numbers for him:
PTS: 17.4
RBS: 7.0
AST: 1.7
BLK: .9
STL: .6
All this while shooting +50% from the field and taking 70% of his shots from range. Also, he is listed in ALL 20 of our top 5-man units. ALL 20! Not even Mr. Harden has that distinction. More Patterson love to come...
#5
Posted 13 February 2013 - 04:57 PM
In 14 games, Patterson averaged 34 minutes. In those games he posted these actual numbers:
.505 FG% .417 3FG% 16.6 PTS 5.9 RBS 1.5 AST
Here are some player comparisons with the same splits:
JOSH SMITH
.470 FG% .369 3FG% 17.6 PTS 8.9 RBS 4.6 AST
Blake Griffin
.521 FG% .200 3FG% 19.3 PTS 9.1 RBS 3.4 AST
Paul Millsap
.481 FG% .316 3FG% 16.6 PTS 8.7 RBS 2.7 AST
Lamarcus Aldridge
.478 FG% .000 3FG% 20.2 PTS 8.8 RBS 2.5 AST
Kevin Love (Note: went with year 3 (same as PPAT) due to injury)
.470 FG% .419 3FG% 19.2 PTS 14.7 RBS 2.8 AST
Zach Randolph
.476 FG% .143 3FG% 15.7 PTS 11.5 RBS 1.4 AST
Tim Duncan
.510 FG% 1.00 3FG% 19.6 PTS 12.2 RBS 2.7 AST
Pau Gasol (Note: I went with his 3rd year stats as this year is a clusterF&*% for him)
.482 FG% .267 3FG% 17.7 PTS 7.7 RBS 2.5 AST
David West
.497 FG% .273 3FG% 17.8 PTS 7.5 RBS 3.1 AST
Ryan Anderson
.457 FG% .429 3FG% 18.6 PTS 6.5 RBS 1.4 AST
OK, only 3 players are more, or as, efficient inside and out as PPAT: Duncan, K. Love, and Ryan Anderson. Yes, some players rebounding numbers are superior, but they play inside vs. outside. All in all, that comparison list is compelling given the Rockets' penchant for efficiency in a stretch 4. Besides Love and Anderson (not known for their defense) is there another player who could fare better for us in that role while supplying sound defense? Not sure....oh, and don't forget that nice $2.1 million contract.
Apparently I'm making Patterson my Valentine this year...
#6
Posted 13 February 2013 - 06:19 PM
Lin/Harden/Parsons/Howard/Asik starting, with a bench of Beverly/Anderson/some new filler or let's be crazy and say MM/2Pat/Howard or Asik. That's not even counting Tjones or White or DMo who we'd have (and prob some of the above would be moved to get the role players we actually need instead of just a bunch of tweener 4's lol). Wow, the potential there is making me salivate.
#7
Posted 13 February 2013 - 06:22 PM
Another avenue for investigation - if the hypothesis is that someone else (eg. Asik) is grabbing all of his boards, then it should be possible to prove by looking at the Patterson's rebounding performance with and without Asik on the court. Does he grab more boards when he's not playing alongside Asik? How about when he's occasionally put at Centre in a smallball lineup? Finally, I think it's better to use the Rebounding Percentage statistic when answering these questions, as it is a fairer measure of performance than the raw numbers (which are quite dependent on the number of shots your opponents miss).
ST
#8
Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:43 PM
82games has lots of stuff here (mid-way down is a chart titled "Player 48-Minute Production by Position"...the numbers are staggering, but I have no context for who they were against.
basketball reference has tons of data and is what I used for the above info.
Here are some on/off the court splits from basketball reference
It's all a bit much. Maybe you can digest all this and give us your take, ST? At a glance, I did not see much difference....but I may be looking in the wrong places...
Also, this must all be weighed with opportunity cost in mind. Are the extra rebounds he could grab worth what we give up in using him that way instead of how we currently use him? I still hold that if we want a glass cleaner then we should get one. Patterson is not that guy, but this thread is predicated on that notion. Ppat is a floor spacer for the rockets that can efficiently shoot outside, mid-range, and at the rim. If we played him in the post he would still be able to do certain things and his rebounds would increase, but what does that do to the offense as a whole?
#9
Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:35 PM
#10
Posted 14 February 2013 - 12:17 AM
Ostrow, on 13 February 2013 - 11:35 PM, said:
Probably is rather convoluted, but if rebounding is about the same or only marginally better with him on the floor, that's a negative for 2Pat right? Means his presence essentially does not affect our rebounding numbers, i.e., he does not contribute?
#11
Posted 14 February 2013 - 01:13 AM
#12
Posted 14 February 2013 - 01:20 AM
phaketrash, on 14 February 2013 - 12:17 AM, said:
People are arguing that he has a negative effect on rebounding. The numbers show that he doesn't. While I'd like him to rebound more, I think his number would look better if he played full time starter minutes.
#13
Posted 15 February 2013 - 04:07 PM
#14
Posted 15 February 2013 - 06:01 PM
thejohnnygold, on 15 February 2013 - 04:07 PM, said:
I disagree with your assertion that we don't have Power Forwards. In the offense, it may be true that Patterson and Morris are further away from the basket in order to spread the floor, but defensively they quite clearly fall into the 4 slot - they are the ones who are asked to alternate with the Centre on picking up defensive assignments on the big men. And although they do it sometimes they are generally slightly out of their comfort zone trying to guard a wing player out at the three point line.
Re: the on/off court data - it looks as though the Rockets rebound slightly better with Patterson on the floor than with someone else in his spot. Sounds like good news, but there are two main caveats - who he spends most of his time on the court with and whether Morris is helping out the rebounding cause either. I'll have a dig through 82games.com (thanks for pointing that site out, by the way JG - I use basketball-reference.com a fair amount but haven't used 82games.com before) over the weekend and see if I can find any data that might help qualify the on/off court split numbers.
ST
#15
Posted 15 February 2013 - 07:50 PM
Remember when Barkley was with the Rockets and got tired of hearing about Rodman's rebounding prowess? Chuck said, I'll lead the league in rebounding just to prove that I can. He came up just short, but still managed to score and maintain his other on-court activities. It was impressive.
#16
Posted 15 February 2013 - 11:53 PM
#17
Posted 16 February 2013 - 12:10 AM
rocketrick, on 15 February 2013 - 11:53 PM, said:
Patterson is already an above average 3 pt shooter...not sure what you mean by, "from the free throw line out"...could you elaborate on this plan?
#18
Posted 16 February 2013 - 12:18 AM
#19
Posted 16 February 2013 - 05:31 PM
MARCUS MORRIS
Check out these shot charts for PPAT and MM. Seems to confirm your assertion that Patterson is only effective from the corners (on threes) and Morris is much more effective from the wings and top of the key--but not the corners. The problem for Morris is those are the only areas he shoots well from (excluding lay-ups/dunks).
As far as Patterson shooting from the FT line area I'd say he is doing pretty well overall according to this chart.
All in all, pretty solid numbers shooting 61.7 % in the paint, 49.1% on jumpers, and 37.2% on threes.
Looking at the last 30 days it seems the Coaches have figured out his limitations as well. His efficiency numbers are increasing and he barely shoots from his weakest spots.
#20
Posted 16 February 2013 - 11:22 PM
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