18 replies to this topic

[DrewinAbilene]

As of today, the Rockets are hovering around .500 and the 8th seed. There are some surprising teams ahead of us in the playoff picture (Golden State, anyone?) along with teams that had been tabbed to excel limping in behind us (Hello, Lakers!), but there's a lot of season left to be played. Instead of just looking at who's in, I want to know which teams we can pass in the rankings or won't be able to overtake us. We don't have to win more than the Spurs and Thunder, but which middle-of-the-pack teams can we be rooting against to give us the best chance at the postseason?

[Cooper]

The lakers, probably Dallas, Minnesota will be around the 7-9 seed

[Rahat Huq]

What's tough is that you expect Minnesota to only get better with Rubio returning and I expect LA to atleast somewhat turn things around and become decently respectable. Dirk should also be back at some point for Dallas.

[DrewinAbilene]

I think Utah has potential to slide back towards the 9 or 10 seed. I know Golden State has been off to a hot start, but I'm not sure if I believe that they can keep it up over the course of the season. Lots of pundits were jumping on the Denver bandwagon early, but I like our chances to beat them out. The Mavs seem to be clicking pretty well without Dirk, so I doubt we can stay ahead of them in the standing when he returns, especially since they will be gunning to do well, in part to convince big name free agents that Dallas is the place to sign.

As for the Lakers, I've been conditioned to regard them as a juggernaut, and have a hard time imagining them missing the playoffs. But as my least favorite NBA team, especially after the playoff loss to them a few years back when Yao got hurt, I would absolutely love to deny them a seat at the table.

I don't think it's realistic to imagine this season ending with us ahead of the Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, or Grizzlies. I doubt the Blazers, Hornets, Kings, or Suns will be able to make a serious playoff push. That would leave us battling it out with the Jazz, Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, Warriors, and Wolves in a seven team race for four playoff spots.

When it all shakes out, I think the Lakers will right the ship and Minnesota will improve once Love and Rubio get going, and they will be the 5 and 6 seeds. I think Golden State ends up dropping to the 9 or 10 seed; I just don't trust them to keep it together. I think Utah and Denver battle it out, with Utah making a mid-season trade to get over the hump and snag the 8 seed. And I think Houston further solidifies, squeaks out a few unexpected wins, and grabs the 7 seed, setting up a great old vs. young match-up with San Antonio.

[Chichos]

It will come down to who stays healthy this season. Dallas and Golden State will fall apart if Mayo or Curry get hurt for any significant period of time. And I see the Jazz taking a step back if they move Jefferson or Millsap before the trade deadline (they will be better in the future, but those two might be their two best players right now.)

In the same vein if Harden misses ten games this season the Rockets probably don't make the playoffs.

[rockets best fan]

Chichos, on 16 December 2012 - 07:40 PM, said:

It will come down to who stays healthy this season. Dallas and Golden State will fall apart if Mayo or Curry get hurt for any significant period of time. And I see the Jazz taking a step back if they move Jefferson or Millsap before the trade deadline (they will be better in the future, but those two might be their two best players right now.)

In the same vein if Harden misses ten games this season the Rockets probably don't make the playoffs.

I agree a lot depends on health. now if all those teams stay pretty healthy it could get a whole lot more interesting. I hope they make it but I expect the rockets to barely miss the playoffs, but that may not be a totally bad thing. as the year shakes out the lakers and nuggets will rebound. I think we will battle utah and golden state for the final spot.

[DrewinAbilene]

It's still early, and I'm a bit wary of overly optimistic predictions after last season's collapse, but the playoff picture is getting interesting. Right now the Rockets are hot, climbing to the 6 spot in the West. Above us, the Clippers have cemented themselves with the Spurs and Thunder as the real deal in the conference. The Grizzlies and Warriors are still doing well, but neither look out of reach for Houston, depending on injuries and trades. Behind us lurk a glut of talented yet flawed teams. From 7-11: the Blazers, Nuggets, Wolves, Jazz, and Lakers all look capable of making the playoffs, but also wouldn't shock me if they landed just short of the post-season.

As of right now, I would be happy just to finally make the playoffs after several years of near misses, even if that meant a matchup with a juggernaut like OKC, the Clippers, or San Antonio. But I'm now hoping for a 4 or 5 seed, along with a decent chance at winning the series. I've heard rumblings of Memphis potentially trading Rudy Gay for cap reasons, which I think could give us a chance to edge ahead of them. And I still don't trust Golden State to keep up this pace. Then again, our current hot streak could cool off any day...

All in all, I feel really good about the Rockets right now. They're doing what it takes to make the postseason.

[thejohnnygold]

If they are shopping Rudy Gay I can't imagine there will be many takers....he is making $16 million for 16 pts and 5 boards a night.

[Cooper]

They'd probably wait till the offseason to trade gay as they have a good team right now with him.

[thejohnnygold]

Maybe the lakers will put ron artest to pasture and pick up Gay to pair with the rest of their gang. BTW, I watched last night's lakers clippers game and kept thinking how glad I am we did not get Dwight Howard. So very, very glad.

[Rahat Huq]

thejohnnygold, on 05 January 2013 - 07:41 PM, said:

Maybe the lakers will put ron artest to pasture and pick up Gay to pair with the rest of their gang. BTW, I watched last night's lakers clippers game and kept thinking how glad I am we did not get Dwight Howard. So very, very glad.

Funny how things work out for the best.

[rockets best fan]

thejohnnygold, on 05 January 2013 - 07:41 PM, said:

Maybe the lakers will put ron artest to pasture and pick up Gay to pair with the rest of their gang. BTW, I watched last night's lakers clippers game and kept thinking how glad I am we did not get Dwight Howard. So very, very glad.

even tho I was calling for that trade I am glad also it didn't work out. howard does not look like the same player to me this year. I don't know if the back issues are still there or not, but he does not seem to be the same defensive force as in past years. I don't see the lakers going after rudy gay because they already owe about a gazillion dollars to other players. you can only play with monopoly money for so long. I like rudy as a player, but that contract is a killer. memphis is going to have to move gay at some point, but I like others suspect more likely at the end of the season. he would look good in rocket red, but would kill our flexibility

[blakecouey]

AS far as the Dwight Howard stuff, I am happy we didn't end up with him either, but he wasn't slated to return until December/January and was back in October. He may not be there yet, but I imagine he will get back to his old self eventually this season. Definitely nice to see the Lakers having trouble though!

[thejohnnygold]

To get back to topic....I like our chances to end up in the 4-5 spot (doesn't make much difference). 1-3 do look locked down. I don't think the Mavs are a well constructed team--they won't pass us. I also just realized why the lakers are paper tigers....was looking at the box score from friday night's game against the clips....they have no bench. nothing. jordan hill. jodie meeks. antawn jamison's corpse.

This made me think.....

http://www.red94.net...-in-the-league/

[rockets best fan]

speaking of jordan hill I have a friend who thought we messed up letting him go. I for one could not be happier. I told him yes there are flashes of greatness, but you can't run a corvette on a cup of gas. the kid has no motor. sorry had to throw that in. now back to the playoffs. I don't think the teams behind us outside of the lakers can catch us. I realize there is still a lot of b-ball to go, but we clearly appear to be better and more talent laden than most. I was not that optimistic at the beginning, but watching the rockets grow has heighten my expectation for them. I expect us to be between 5-7. five if we close well this year. seven if we stumble a little which I expect because we are so young.

[DrewinAbilene]

Well, now that we're past the halfway point on the season, I figure it's worth revisiting which teams we can jump in the standings, and which are lurking behind, waiting to take advantage if we end up in another losing skid.

Memphis is still clinging to the four seed, but they've changed things up by moving Rudy Gay. I'm not sure if the move will hurt them in the short term as far as wins and losses, although I'd warrant that it decreases their already slim chances of making out of the West. If they do lose some momentum as they adjust to new players and try to fill Gay's shoes, they could drop a few seeds, though the playoffs are almost certainly in their future.

Golden State's surprising season continues. Soon after bringing the oft-injured Andrew Bogut back to the floor, the shaky ankles of Stephen Curry betray the team. Despite the injuries, the Warriors have shown considerable tenacity and consistency. At this rate, I seriously doubt the Rockets can overtake them in the standings without some crazy mitigating factors.

Denver has overcome their formidable early schedule to be hanging tough in the sixth position in the West. Despite some swirling trade rumors (Iguodala for Pau Gasol?) and a lack of that one "go to guy" for late game situations, George Karl's squad are holding their own. As they play more and more home games against less difficult opponents, I would expect them to maintain their current position, and even challenge for a four or five seed and the opportunity to skip a clobbering at the hands of one of the Western top 3.

Utah. Remember that time the Rockets were beating the Jazz by half a hundred points? Good times. That may have been partially a one night aberration, but I think it points to a team that is not as good as its record suggests. I think Utah could easily slip down a seed or two, and I would not be surprised to see them miss the playoffs.

Skipping on down to the oh-so-familiar nine spot, the Trailblazers remain well in the hunt for the postseason. Aldridge, Batum, and company are not fading, and as Lillard improves, so does this team. I don't think the seven or eight seeds are out of reach for Portland.

The Lakers are righting the ship. They still look bad at times, but they aren't appallingly bad. Their thin bench and lack of reliable shooters certainly has hurt them, and will continue to hurt them, but their front line is still formidable, even at less than 100%. Nash and Howard still seem to be on the mend from their maladies, but are improving and meshing better than early in the season. And Kobe is Kobe. I want to count them out, but I don't trust them to stay dead. There's just too much talent and pride to discount. It would take a mighty good stretch of basketball, but I think they challenge for the eight seed if they catch the right breaks.

Dallas was written off by just about anyone, myself included. They have clawed and scratched their way back in the last few weeks, which coincides with Dirk's resurgence. But even with a flurry of well played games from Dallas, I just can't see them catching up with the teams ahead of them. There are too many breaks they need to catch, and I doubt they can keep up their current pace. In the last month or so, once their fate as a lottery team is sealed, I imagine the Mavs will drop off even further.

Minnesota has hit a free fall, largely attributable to the rash of injuries they've sustained. Like the Mavericks, there is too much standing in their way and too many good teams that would hav to implode in order to gift them the eight seed.

With all that said, if those evaluations prove true, we're in a five team battle for three playoffs spots. Can the Rockets hold off the Trailblazers and the Lakers, and if so, can they avoid becoming first round fodder for a juggernaut?

[DrewinAbilene]

DrewinAbilene, on 01 February 2013 - 12:48 AM, said:

Golden State's surprising season continues. Soon after bringing the oft-injured Andrew Bogut back to the floor, the shaky ankles of Stephen Curry betray the team. Despite the injuries, the Warriors have shown considerable tenacity and consistency. At this rate, I seriously doubt the Rockets can overtake them in the standings without some crazy mitigating factors.

Utah. Remember that time the Rockets were beating the Jazz by half a hundred points? Good times. That may have been partially a one night aberration, but I think it points to a team that is not as good as its record suggests. I think Utah could easily slip down a seed or two, and I would not be surprised to see them miss the playoffs.

Golden State has looked pretty bad lately, including the beat-down the Rockets visited upon them. Neither team swung a big move at the trade deadline that would have made them more formidable. Both seem to have much more difficult schedules ahead of them than Houston. At this point, I think they are both going to be first round fodder for the Spurs and Thunder, leaving our boys an excellent chance of claiming the sixth seed.

[Alituro]

Houston has had the league's toughest schedule to date. Out of the rest of the guys fighting for a playoff berth (realistically), Nuggets, Lakers, Grizz and the Warriors all have schedules to date in the top ten toughest. The Mavs, Jazz and Blazers all hold 16th, 19th and 23rd..Based on this alone, as things get tougher for the latter 3 and apparently easier on us, we should overcome the Jazz pretty soon. The Timberwolves are also at the middle of the pack at #13. I expect the Rocket' wins %s to go up as the season goes on and for the Lakers to widen their lead on Blazers, Mavs and T-wolves. I look for Utah to slide back behind LAL and out of the picture at #9, LA at #8. I also expect the Grizz, based on their recent moves to start slipping, making them overcome(able). I don't expect Denver to slide much, because they are much too consistent with their rotations and play style. We should be battling for the 5th and 6th spot with the Grizz at the end. Besting out the guys at #7 (probably GS) and the Lakers #8 by a couple games, and if not, by virtue of owning the tiebreaker. My prediction:

• Spurs
  
• Thunder
  
• Clippers
  
• Nuggets
  
• Grizzlies
  
• ROCKETS!
  
• Warriors
  
• Lakers

[feelingsupersonic]

I am wary of the line up changes but I believe we might see a good bit more of line ups with Delfino and Garcia raining threes with smaller line ups on the floor as the young 4's develop in the immediate future. I hope the impact on the playoff run is not too negative for too long. McHale runs this team in a manner that covers up many of its weaknesses which should give the youngsters some confidence. That win against OKC came at the perfect time because it should instill confidence in Harden and Lin which hopefully is contagious. Morey said he expects to see more of the Delfino run and gun line up post Robinson trade this morning on 790. One interesting comment he also made was that this roster is the least experienced roster ever assembled and making the playoffs would not only be a huge accomplishment but also be invaluable experience and I strongly agree with his contention.