395 replies to this topic

[2016Champions]

Hmm I guess the line between an assumption an an "educated guess" is thinner than I thought.

[thejohnnygold]

With our lack of a state income tax we gain a small advantage.  Further, the prospect of playing for an up and coming team that is poised to start making some long play off runs has appeal as well with playoff stipends and bonuses.  It may not make a difference...then again...

[2016Champions]

Yet sources close to the situation say that the extension talks never got too deep because Smith made it clear from the start that he wanted to make it to free agency, which would enable him to sign a longer deal. League rules on extensions precluded the Hawks from offering anything longer than three extra years during the season. ESPN.com

To me that just sounds like he didn't except the extension because he wanted a longer deal, not because he wanted more money.

 

"The question was asked to me, 'Do I feel like I'm a max player?'" Smith continued. "And I gave him an honest answer. I said, 'Yes I do.' And the reason why I say this, is because if you don't know your worth, who will? I can't set my standards low. If you set them low, that's how people are going to view you. Like when you sell a house, you don't sell the house for $2 million. You put the $5 million sticker on there … and then you work it out. You negotiate." ESPN.com

And that sounds like he only put a "max player" sticker on himself and is willing to negotiate.

 

I'm no accountant, but my educated guesses tell me you got it wrong Steven.

[thejohnnygold]

[Steven]

Ok they put out 15, he put out max. Negotiations only put it in between not lower. That's simple logic. People always want more. People always want more for free. When he signs for 4/80 with a different team, my I told you so will be already mentioned and won't have to be updated.

And by using his metaphor if you over price your house by 250% you get no offers, there is no negotiation.

[Jason]

To me that just sounds like he didn't except the extension because he wanted a longer deal, not because he wanted more money.

And that sounds like he only put a "max player" sticker on himself and is willing to negotiate.

I'm no accountant, but my educated guesses tell me you got it wrong Steven.

2016, there is no point in arguing with Steven about this. He is a clear Josh Smith hater and very closed minded about him. Mine as well expend time and energy elsewhere.

[2016Champions]

I thought Steven made some good points, or maybe I should say Zach Lowe made some good points, here's one of the points that I agreed with:

"The Hawks nonetheless stationed Smith in the corners and above the arc on several Jeff Teague–Al Horford pick-and-rolls, and got some early traction doing so, since Smith's presence way out there dragged a big help defender away from the rim. The Pacers smartened up eventually, sending Smith's man to crash down into the paint instead of paying Smith any mind."

 

Smart defenses would just leave Josh Smith open at the 3pt line, and when that happens it's almost like we're playing 4v5. This is one of the reasons I would prefer Paul Millsap. 

 

Steven definitely comes off as a hater because he only sees things from one perspective, but about 10% of the things he has said actually hold some merit. 

[thejohnnygold]

2016, what are your thoughts about josh Smith running offense through the high post?  I know you're a fan of a stretch 4 that can knock down threes.  Obviously, with Smith his 3 pt. range has a couple of good spots but he doesn't shoot it consistently from all over.  I like him initiating a lot of our offense from the high post which should limit the number of long 2' s and 3's he takes and thereby limit his most glaring weakness (aside from free throws).  Thoughts...?

[2016Champions]

Right now the elbow/high-post is a no-fly zone for us, but there are many teams (Spurs being one, Lakers are another another) that manage to make it work if the big man stationed there is a good passer. Josh Smith is a good passser, so It can work, but I would prefer leaning towards what the Heat and Thunder do which is space the floor.

 

I think the Warriors station David Lee alot at the elbow, and it hasn't stopped them from being a good offensive team, but last night they were more stretched out without David Lee and they didn't miss a beat to say the least. I haven't seen the statistics, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a correlation between floor spacing and better offense.

[thejohnnygold]

I'd really like to incorporate them both and create a hybrid offense that leaves defenses feeling stupid.  If Smith sets up on the right side high post and the defense sets up to stop that he can pass out/hand off to a cutter coming around his screen in that spot and then roll out to his best 3 pt. spot on the right wing.  We're immediately in a different set.  The opposite can happen if our spread attack bogs down.  Smith can slide into the high post and go from there.  It makes defending us extremely difficult in my estimation--especially if we bounce back and forth between the two which should create defensive lapses as defenders struggle to remember their assignments based on which set we're in....it's a little pie in the sky, but I like the concept.

[2016Champions]

There are many different ways to become an elite offense, but I would prefer a way that involves a good shooter at the 4 and here's another reason why: I think the Thunder are going to be a huge obstacle for us for many, many, years, and I would like to match up against them as well as possible. I'm not sure Josh Smith does that for us, at least not offensively anyway. A huge defensive difference maker for the Thunder is Ibaka, and there are certain ways we can not only limit his impact defensive impact but even expose his defensive shortcomings as a liability. To further articulate my stance, I present to you a piece of Zach Lowe:

 

The Spurs called plays designed to take advantage of Ibaka's tendency to stay too long. For instance, they'd have Boris Diaw and then Tim Duncan set consecutive picks for Tony Parker, knowing Ibaka would hang around the scrum longer than required as Diaw flared open to the opposite corner (Ibaka is at the elbow in the photo below, with Diaw open in the right corner):

 

 

Or take this photo, in which Durant and Collison have combined to thwart a screen for Derrick Favors on the left block but Ibaka is still in the paint, far from an elite mid-range shooter (in this case Paul Millsap):

 

 

The issues extend to the perimeter, where Ibaka can be unsure of himself in covering the weak side. In the below still, for instance, the Thunder are overloading the left side of the floor in response to a Steve Nash–Marcin Gortat pick-and-roll that has ended up with Nash passing to Shannon Brown in the left corner. Ibaka is late to shift into the space halfway between Channing Frye and Jared Dudley as Durant abandons Dudley to help in the paint, perhaps because Ibaka understands Frye (his man) is an elite shooter. But the gap leaves the skip pass from Brown to Dudley, who would hit a 3 on his possession as both Ibaka and Durant ran out at him — leaving Frye unguarded for a potential second pass.

 

http://www.grantland...ba-championship

[Jason]

I thought Steven made some good points, or maybe I should say Zach Lowe made some good points, here's one of the points that I agreed with:

Smart defenses would just leave Josh Smith open at the 3pt line, and when that happens it's almost like we're playing 4v5. This is one of the reasons I would prefer Paul Millsap.

Steven definitely comes off as a hater because he only sees things from one perspective, but about 10% of the things he has said actually hold some merit.

Why would they leave Josh Smith open when he shoots 38 percent from the corner three? Also, Millsap hardly takes any three so we can't call him a 3 pt shooter.

[RollingWave]

Smith does address our atrocious defense to an extend at least, the question is can he be competent enough on the offensive end to be worth a large contract?

 

Let there be no mistake that he was more than just a little bad this year offensively, he shot a truly amazing .517 from the FREE THROW LINE . and he barely shot 30% from 3, he was actually reasonably effecient in drives, which makes it more mind boggling.

 

It's hard to say though, he's being ask to do ALOT in Atlanta, he gets about the same USG% as Harden and he's obviously not the same level of offensive talent, would be improve simply with a reduced role on offense?  and how much money are you betting on that?

 

He's a fine player that can help someone, but are we really just a Josh Smith away from contention?

[2016Champions]

Josh Smith played horribly this season, I definitely wouldn't give him more than 58m/4yrs and hope he has a good year with us which will help us flip him for Kevin Love. 

[pharmag]

He's a fine player that can help someone, but are we really just a Josh Smith away from contention?

 

I'm not sure many Smith proponents think we are a Josh Smith away from contention.  Smith makes the team much better defensively and a little better offensively, gives us the potential to make a deep playoff run, all while giving our young team time to grow and gain experience.  I think most JSmoove proponents are looking at it as a "If we don't land either premiere names (Howard & CP3)," which doesn't look very likely.  

 

 

 

Josh Smith played horribly this season, I definitely wouldn't give him more than 58m/4yrs and hope he has a good year with us which will help us flip him for Kevin Love. 

 That is exactly what I am thinking.  If we kept Asik, the rebounding on this team would be insane (especially with Bev grabbing 12 from the PG spot).

[Jason]

Josh Smith played horribly this season, I definitely wouldn't give him more than 58m/4yrs and hope he has a good year with us which will help us flip him for Kevin Love.

You confuse me. One minute you like Josh Smith, the next minute you don't. And how did he play horribly when his numbers were essentially the same as always?

[2016Champions]

You confuse me. One minute you like Josh Smith, the next minute you don't. And how did he play horribly when his numbers were essentially the same as always?

 

 

I always try to look at things from different perspectives. How much I like Josh Smith depends on how well he plays, I think he became a top 10 defensive player in '09 and followed that up with several seasons of that quality, but this season I think he fell out of that range. I think this is his worst season in several years which is strange considering he's only 27 and it's his contract year, if there's any year I would have expected Josh to have an impressive season it would have been this one, so I just can't help but see Josh Smith as a very risky investment.

 

Riskiness aside, there is room for optimism. Like you said, Josh Smith shoots 36.5% (not 38%, it dropped) from a certain three spot (it's the right wing, not the right corner) according to nba.com, which is an improvement from last season where he shot 26% from that spot. But there is also room for pessimism: Josh Smith's RAPM this season dropped from 6th last season to 28th this season, and while RAPM is not a perfect stat, they are worth looking at and those numbers are thought provoking. Also, I can't find it but I have heard Zach Lowe also mention that he thinks Josh Smith has had a down season. I was able to find this little quote of Zach's though: 

 

Smith especially will almost appear lazy on help defense, and while he actually is a bit lazy at times, what looks like “blah” effort is actually Smith’s calculated understanding that with Horford behind him

 

This further reinforces my observations that Josh Smith has been a little lazier on defense this season--something his blocks and steals won't tell you. Even if he's being lazy because he knows Horford is behind him, I still don't like it considering it's his contract year and he should be trying to impress. Unfortunately, that's the best proof I have--an imperfect statistic (RAPM) and a small little quote from Zach Lowe which almost sounds like a criticism but is actually more of a praise. Regardless, it's not Josh Smith's defense I'm concerned about, and I think most people will agree that Josh Smith is a risky investment especially if he demands more than 58m/4yrs. I suppose the question is, do you want to take that risk? Personally, I would feel more comfortable with Paul Millsap for 50m/4yrs, but I guess that's a whole different topic. 

[thejohnnygold]

To add some perspective to the drop in RAPM, there was quite a bit of roster overhaul from last season to this one as Atlanta tries to "rebuild on the fly".

 

Gone from last year's roster: Eric Dampier, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, Kirk Hinrich, Tracy McGrady, Jerry Stackhouse, Willie Green, Vlad Radmonovic, Jason Collins, and Donald Sloan (10 total players)

 

There is a lot of offensive firepower in that list as well as some solid defenders.

 

Their biggest additions this year were Kyle Korver and Deshawn Stevenson....everyone else are scrubs.

 

The Hawks' defensive numbers are lower across the board dropping from 6th overall last season (per basketball reference) to 10th this season.  To me, it speaks volumes that with that line-up they are still a top 10 defense.  Horford, Smith, Teague, Korver, and Louis Williams.  Add to this that the only two "centers" they have, Pachulia and Petro, played a total of 83 games combined.  Bottom line, they played half this season without a true center (and the rest with mediocre centers) and still posted a top 10 defense and made the playoffs.

 

Looking closer, the Hawks were riddled with injuries this year.  Louis Williams only played 39 games, Deshawn Stevenson 56, Devin Harris 58.

 

They also had a mid-season trade, and just recently signed Shelvin Mack to fill out the roster.

 

Bottom line--they traded away all their talent, had a topsy-turvy roster all year that featured less talent than they have had in the last 8 years, and still got the 6th seed (rumors are they dodged the 5th seed to avoid Miami's side of the bracket).

 

It's true that players usually play harder in a contract year, but it is also true that player's look lazy and disinterested once they have given up on a team.  Smith has watched management fail to capitalize on a promising roster and, to save money ship out good talent year after year to avoid paying them.  I don't know how I would react, but I can understand Smith's frustrations.  People point to him turning down the 3 yr - $45M contract and say he is selfish and greedy.  I think he would have turned down any contract offer they put on the table as he is simply done with this team.

 

BTW, Josh Smith posted 16, 6, and 3 on 7-10 shooting in 20 minutes last night on a sprained ankle against the league's #1 defense.

 

I think somebody's going to sign a helluva player this Summer and be glad they did as he will show up rejuvenated and ready to show everyone why he is a "max player".

 

Edit: grammar

[Jason]

I always try to look at things from different perspectives. How much I like Josh Smith depends on how well he plays, I think he became a top 10 defensive player in '09 and followed that up with several seasons of that quality, but this season I think he fell out of that range. I think this is his worst season in several years which is strange considering he's only 27 and it's his contract year, if there's any year I would have expected Josh to have an impressive season it would have been this one, so I just can't help but see Josh Smith as a very risky investment.

Riskiness aside, there is room for optimism. Like you said, Josh Smith shoots 36.5% (not 38%, it dropped) from a certain three spot (it's the right wing, not the right corner) according to nba.com, which is an improvement from last season where he shot 26% from that spot. But there is also room for pessimism: Josh Smith's RAPM this season dropped from 6th last season to 28th this season, and while RAPM is not a perfect stat, they are worth looking at and those numbers are thought provoking. Also, I can't find it but I have heard Zach Lowe also mention that he thinks Josh Smith has had a down season. I was able to find this little quote of Zach's though:


This further reinforces my observations that Josh Smith has been a little lazier on defense this season--something his blocks and steals won't tell you. Even if he's being lazy because he knows Horford is behind him, I still don't like it considering it's his contract year and he should be trying to impress. Unfortunately, that's the best proof I have--an imperfect statistic (RAPM) and a small little quote from Zach Lowe which almost sounds like a criticism but is actually more of a praise. Regardless, it's not Josh Smith's defense I'm concerned about, and I think most people will agree that Josh Smith is a risky investment especially if he demands more than 58m/4yrs. I suppose the question is, do you want to take that risk? Personally, I would feel more comfortable with Paul Millsap for 50m/4yrs, but I guess that's a whole different topic.

But you have stated recently in other posts that you want us to get Josh Smith, so this is why Im confused. Howard had a down year too, does that mean he is now off the table? And don't you think that if players are unhappy on a team it will eventually effect their play on the court to at least some degree?

[2016Champions]

That's the problem with being open minded, I can easily change your mind about things, but every curse comes with a blessing. Sure, maybe Smith being unhappy is a reason he has been so sloppy this season, or maybe it's not. Should we bet 58m on a maybe? 

 

I've heard rumors that Morey used to love Smith and now he just likes him, I feel exactly the same way, I liked Josh Smith alot better when I thought he shot 38% from the wing and played defense at a near DPoY level. 

 

From one perspective, Josh Smith's addition could make us an elite defensive team, but his addition could also make it hard for us to exploit the Thunder's weaknesses. Whatever direction we go in, we have to keep in mind that this won't be the last time we will meet the Thunder in the playoffs so it's important that we match-up well against them. 

 

If the Timberwolves or Trailblazers like Josh Smith alot then I like Josh Smith alot too, hopefully we can get Josh and flip him for a disgruntled Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge. But if we want to sign a FA who will directly help us beat the Thunder, then I would prefer Paul Millsap over Josh Smith because of the floor spacing.