4 replies to this topic

[Red94]

New post: Ball is Life: Time to shut it down?
By: Paul McGuire

As the most disappointing Houston Rockets since well, I don’t know, draws to a close, perhaps the worst part of this story is that the Rockets still have a good shot at making the playoffs.

 

After yesterday’s victory against Cleveland, ESPN gives the Rockets a 92.8 percent chance of making the playoffs and facing the Spurs juggernaut, while FiveThirtyEight gives them a 90 percent chance. The Dallas Mavericks appear to be the odd team out. While Houston and Dallas will play each other one more time, the Rockets currently have the tiebreaker and an easier schedule down the stretch.

 

But what will Houston even accomplish in the playoffs? They will be lucky to win one game against the Warriors or Spurs. You cannot claim that “playoff experience” is necessary for a team which just reached the Western Conference Finals last year, and so the question has to be asked:

 

Should the Rockets just shut it down, give up on this season, and complete this humiliation? Or should they keep trying, for whatever good it has done them this year?

 

I will start off by observing that I pay almost zero attention to draft prospects or college basketball (I have watched maybe three NCAA games in my entire life). But one thing which should be remembered is that the Rockets would not necessarily have the 14^th pick, but the 12^th pick depending on how the Washington Wizards and Chicago Bulls finish in the Eastern Conference.

 

Still, there are a couple advantages to note. If Houston ends up making the playoffs, they forfeit their first round pick to the Denver Nuggets as part of the Ty Lawson trade. If the Rockets do not make the playoffs, then they will give up Portland’s 2017 second round pick. So it is not a matter of “give up a first rounder now or do it later,” nor is it just the difference between the 14^th and 17^th pick. It is a matter of the Rockets giving up a first rounder at all.

 

Now, one could wonder what the value of a late lottery pick really is, but I do think that there is some value. No one expects the Rockets to draft a star with a pick like that, but drafting a superstar is just not the way to go. By the time any potential drafted superstar becomes a star, Harden may be reaching the end of his prime. And I have always been leery of Harden’s longevity given his minutes played and the beating he draws by charging to the rim as much as he does.

 

The true value of a late lottery pick is that such a pick could shore up Houston’s bench, and the Rockets bench badly needs an upgrade. Jason Terry and Clint Capela were good, and Beasley surprised for the second half of this season (though I continue to remain skeptical about how valuable he actually is). But Terrence Jones and Corey Brewer have been a disaster, to say nothing about the Grand Ty Lawson Experiment.

 

Even a player on the level of Patrick Patterson or Jeremy Lamb would go some ways towards improving this team. While I have no doubt that Morey intends to home-run for a superstar again this offseason, he does need to have an actual back-up plan if it does not happen.

 

All of this shows that the Houston Rockets management has an incentive to see the Rockets miss the playoffs down the stretch, however humiliating that might be. And really, what is the potential upside at this point?

 

If Houston was capable of vaulting to the 6^th seed like many of us had hoped for earlier in the season, then perhaps you could make an argument that the Rockets could pull off the upset against the Thunder or maybe even the Clippers. But this team is not beating the Warriors or the Spurs. Not in a thousand years. And as noted above, this team will not get “playoff experience” out of it given that this is by and large a team filled with veterans.

 

Every sound businessman knows that it is pointless to throw good money after bad, and this season is already lost. The Rockets need to figure out how to retool for a future ring with James Harden at its core. And if that means resting him more, making sure that ankle is healthy, and getting the team into the lottery down the stretch?

 

Then perhaps that is what needs to be done.

[majik19]

So apparently I was wrong - we don't have to eventually convey a 1st rounder... In that case, I won't be too upset if we miss the playoffs (or rather, any more upset than I already am about the season). 

 

So do we "mini-tank"? Everything in me tells me no, except for my brain, which says yes. If I think of it from Les's perspective - he hates paying money for teams that don't win. Additionally, there would be some extra revenue (2 home games) if the Rockets do make the playoffs. So there is a bit more incentive. 

 

If we were in the 12 range, who would we even be interested in? I'm not even sure what our biggest need is. Probably still PF? If we look at best available (according to Chad Ford) - Denzel Valentine probably doesn't translate to the pros, Domatas Sabonis is certainly interesting, but will his athleticism limit his pro game (and does he even have a place in the modern NBA?), I love Tyler Ulis but his ceiling is probably Aaron Brooks, don't like Labassiere... and no one else really registers. 

[thejohnnygold]

I've pretty much already weighed in on this as a pro-tanker.  Nothing is gained from making the playoffs (barring some miracles) when looking long term.

 

That presumed #12 pick could be pretty solid.  Ivan Rabb is considered a solid pro prospect--not a star, but surely an NBA player.  I like Valentine and after watching Sabonis in the tourney I think he can play in the NBA as well.  While a PG makes a lot of sense, the league is saturated with them and as long as we have Harden that position is rendered somewhat impotent.

 

Looking at last year's draft, there was plenty of talent available in the early teens: Justise Winslow, Myles Turner, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, Cameron Payne, Kelly Oubre, Terry Rozier, Rashad Vaughan, Dekker, and Jerian Grant went 10-19.  Outside of Dekker, whom we haven't seen, all appear to be solid NBA prospects.  Winslow, Turner, Lyles, Booker, and Oubre all have potential to be solid NBA starters and possibly all-stars.  That's 50%--not too shabby.

 

There is also the possibility of trading the pick (packaged with Brewer, Jones, Dwight (if he opts in), and just about anybody not named "James".  Way too many options to speculate on that.

 

Back to Valentine.  Here is a video of him putting up a triple-double on Kansas earlier in the season.  In all fairness, I don't think he deserved credit for 12 assists in that game, but the scorer's table did so whatever.  He still looks impressive and I think his game will translate nicely because he plays under control and uses his herky-jerky speed changes to get good looks or create shots for others.  Combine that with good size and the Tom Izzo influence and I like him.

 

[txtdo1411]

It's easy enough to see that we probably should tank. I think we could be competitive with the Thunder if we somehow got to the 6th seed, but realistically we aren't making any noise in the post season. That being said, the organization isn't going to do it. For better or worse, it isn't their organizational philosophy to tank. So it is a somewhat futile effort to discuss the merits of tanking vs not, when the real life Rockets are not going to do it. Now who knows with this team, they might actually just play bad enough to miss the postseason.

 

This season has been so disappointing. Best case scenario, assuming we make the playoffs, is being competitive in the first round of the playoffs. Not at all what I had expected/hoped for before the beginning of the season, but it is what it is. The glass half full side of me still thinks, even without that 1st round pick, that we will have the cap space and roster spots to make some solid FA signings that will improve the team this summer. The glass half empty side says that even if we have a great off season, it probably still isn't going to be enough to knock off the Warriors or Spurs. Ugh...

[Jatman20]

1) If I'm the GM I want that 1st round pick to help move some undesirable contracts (Brewer/McDaniels) this summer. Although a story surfaced on how the Pelicans nixed a deal at the deadline that would have sent KJ and either D-Mo or TJ for Ryan Anderson. In the article a point was made on how KJ shot 35% while with the Vipers (D-league affiliate) from 3 this year......and how KJ is so young (younger than many top SG's and SF's coming out) and may be a better option than drafting some of the draft prospects this year. I posted last year on how I would play KJ on Curry (Warriors). Well KJ played some vs Kyrie Irving this past game. Maybe a playoff preview?

2) if I'm GM and the Rockets make the playoffs it will require some change to succeed. A) Howard will need to play only about 24 minutes or completely shut him down. Problem with that is D-Mo's status: can he give us about 22 mins a game? In the playoffs there will be no back to backs. TJ and Smoove should be chomping at the bit to get some playing time and show their worth to the world on the national stage called the playoffs. If Dwight doesn't want to get with the program....they will. play KJ over Brewer "more". If both are crappy shooters; then McDaniels' defense gives him the edge between the two over playing time. Can you play Goudelock some as well? Before the playoffs!!

I do believe the stories that Harden was dogging it early in the season to get McHale fired (because McHale is old school and doesn't believe in going small). Then knocked heads with Dwight to get him traded because D12 doesn't fit in an uptempo style. Now I believe Dwight is sabotaging things so he can leave a hot mess this summer.........and not a successful playoff team. Just my opinion. Just speculation.