11 replies to this topic

[majik19]

From Kevin Pelton's ESPN Insider article on the Rockets:

 

"By adding Lawson, the Rockets also plan on increasing the number of 3-pointers this season to 40 per game."

 

I think this is a good thing. But that is a pretty big jump - we averaged 32.7 3s per game last year.

 

[WARNING: Math below]

 

We attempted 83.3 field goals/game last year (50.6 2 pt field goals).

If we reduce that to 76 and increase the 3s to 40, and keep our percentages the same (2 PT FG%, 3PT FG%, and same number of free throws made), then we would score: 104.2 pts/game vs. 103.9 pts/game. 

 

The jump in points there is insignificant, and if we drive to the hoop less, then we draw less fouls and it's possible we score even fewer points per game. (If we assume that we made 18.6 free throws per 50.6 2 pt field goals attempted, then that would actually go down to 15.9 free throws made at 43.3 2 pt field goals attempted per game, which further results in only scoring 101.5 pts/game).

 

So basically, the point of all the math is that shooting more 3s may actually hurt our offense.

HOWEVER, there are some assumptions above that would prove that analysis incorrect. The biggest one is that we actually get better looks and therefore shoot a higher % on 3 pointers. The break even point, if we account for fewer free throws attempted, would be 36.9%. If Ariza's preseason shooting continues, Harden gets some catch and shoot opportunities, and Lawson shoots better than Beverly, it's not inconceivable that we get there. 

 

I also did not make any adjustments for pace, and it looks like we are going to up the pace this year. Of course, more shots always means more points.

 

Another mitigating factor that isn't in the numbers - we had a pretty steady diet of Howard post-ups when he played. I would expect that to be reduced this year, or at least when he gets the ball, there is another really dangerous player on the perimeter (e.g. Beverly's guy won't be able to double off Lawson). Less of this would also help increase the pace. 

 

Something else to keep in mind - if Harden is driving to the hoop less, then maybe he won't be as worn down at the end of the year... so even if the effect in the statistics is less free throws made, it may be a net positive when we get to the playoffs. 

 

What's everyone else's opinion on "40 3s per game?"

Edited by majik19, 26 October 2015 - 05:03 PM.

[Cooper]

At some point there are too many threes and to me 40 sounds a little high. They will probably shoot more, I'd guess maybe 35 or 36 along with a bump in shooting percentage, but lawson drives just as much as anyone and will easily add more than the few drives less Harden will take plus with two creators it will be easier to get Brewer, Jones, Howard, Capela looks on cuts and lobs. 

[Losthief]

Offense Rebounding is missing from your analysis as well.

[majik19]

Offense Rebounding is missing from your analysis as well.

Good point, but it is also difficult to quantify the impact of taking more 3s on offensive rebounds. I assume you're thinking more 3s means more long caroms means more offensive rebounds. 

 

That being said, I did a scatter plot comparing offensive rebounds per game to 3 pointers attempted per game of the whole league, and found no correlation. 

 

While I can't figure out how to post the plot, an easy way to look at it is OKC, Detroit, Denver, Utah, and Philadelphia were the top 5 teams in offensive rebounding last year. They finished 14th, 11th, 12th, 17th, and 6th in 3 pointers attempted per game, respectively. Houston, Cleveland, Portland, Golden State, and LAC finished top 5 in 3 pointers attempted per game. They finished 6th, 11th, 15th, 21st, and 28th in Offensive Rebounds/game. So they're all over the place. 

 

Now you could say that pace accounts for that as well, since we're looking at per game numbers (but I am comparing per game to per game, so that shouldn't have an effect). The top 5 in Offensive Rebound Rate were Utah, OKC, Detroit, New Orleans, and Chicago. With the exception of OKC, the other four teams were among the slowest in the NBA. Another comparison would be to 3 pointers attempted per possession - Utah was 16th, OKC 18th, Detroit 9th, New Orleans 19th, and Chicago 13th in that metric. Again, appears to be no correlation. 

 

I think offensive rebounds depends more on your defensive scheme than how many 3s you shoot. The Spurs are notorious for giving up on offensive rebounds and getting back in transition (and hence, they finished 27th in offensive rebounds per game, 25th in Offensive Rebound Rate, and and yet 10th in 3 pointers attempted/possession). 

Edited by majik19, 26 October 2015 - 08:59 PM.

[thejohnnygold]

Maybe McHale is just hoping we cut down on our turnovers and those extra possessions will increase our 3 pt volume.  

[rockets best fan]

Maybe McHale is just hoping we cut down on our turnovers and those extra possessions will increase our 3 pt volume.  

now ya talkin..........agree. IMA that area will be Lawson's greatest effect on us. we were one of the highest turnover teams in the league last year....around 17 a game if I remember correctly. getting that in single digits should provide plenty of extra 3 point opportunities.  

[Losthief]

Good point, but it is also difficult to quantify the impact of taking more 3s on offensive rebounds. I assume you're thinking more 3s means more long caroms means more offensive rebounds. 

 

That being said, I did a scatter plot comparing offensive rebounds per game to 3 pointers attempted per game of the whole league, and found no correlation. 

 

While I can't figure out how to post the plot, an easy way to look at it is OKC, Detroit, Denver, Utah, and Philadelphia were the top 5 teams in offensive rebounding last year. They finished 14th, 11th, 12th, 17th, and 6th in 3 pointers attempted per game, respectively. Houston, Cleveland, Portland, Golden State, and LAC finished top 5 in 3 pointers attempted per game. They finished 6th, 11th, 15th, 21st, and 28th in Offensive Rebounds/game. So they're all over the place. 

 

Now you could say that pace accounts for that as well, since we're looking at per game numbers (but I am comparing per game to per game, so that shouldn't have an effect). The top 5 in Offensive Rebound Rate were Utah, OKC, Detroit, New Orleans, and Chicago. With the exception of OKC, the other four teams were among the slowest in the NBA. Another comparison would be to 3 pointers attempted per possession - Utah was 16th, OKC 18th, Detroit 9th, New Orleans 19th, and Chicago 13th in that metric. Again, appears to be no correlation. 

 

I think offensive rebounds depends more on your defensive scheme than how many 3s you shoot. The Spurs are notorious for giving up on offensive rebounds and getting back in transition (and hence, they finished 27th in offensive rebounds per game, 25th in Offensive Rebound Rate, and and yet 10th in 3 pointers attempted/possession). 

Yeah very true, i don't think theres a correlation to long shots=offensive rebounds i agree. More that we do as a team offensively rebound quite well (Howard, Jones, Capela, Bev) which might help (assuming health) us personally. But again...its a small thing, the TOs as pointed out above seem like a more likely/possible culprit.

[slick shoes]

Houston, Cleveland, Portland, Golden State, and LAC finished top 5 in 3 pointers attempted per game. They finished 6th, 11th, 15th, 21st, and 28th in Offensive Rebounds/game. So they're all over the place.

 

No need for rebounds when everything goes in. 

[thejohnnygold]

I expect an uptick in 3 pt% this season--pretty much across the board (except Brewer).  Lawson's passing is better which will help others.  Add to that Harden is much better on catch-and-shoots than pull up threes and I think we can expect a top 10 ranking in team 3 pt% this year.  Last year the cut-off for top 10 was .353.  We shot .348 and came in 14th.  That really isn't asking much.  If we can shoot 37-38% there are going to be lots of blowouts...which means lots of Beverley, Brewer, KJ, Capela, and Montrezl in the 4th quarter!!!

[majik19]

I expect an uptick in 3 pt% this season--pretty much across the board (except Brewer).  Lawson's passing is better which will help others.  Add to that Harden is much better on catch-and-shoots than pull up threes and I think we can expect a top 10 ranking in team 3 pt% this year.  Last year the cut-off for top 10 was .353.  We shot .348 and came in 14th.  That really isn't asking much.  If we can shoot 37-38% there are going to be lots of blowouts...which means lots of Beverley, Brewer, KJ, Capela, and Montrezl in the 4th quarter!!!

 

I agree with your analysis here, but something to consider is Brewer will actually shoot more 3s as a Houston Rocket, so that could outweigh some of that. Also, Jones and Motiejunas may shoot more 3s this year, and possibly not as well.

 

It probably will hinge mostly on Ariza. I'm hoping he can get more corner 3s this year, which will bring up his percentage. 

[thejohnnygold]

I'm not worried about Motie's shooting.  He can knock down the three.  Jones....we'll see.

[txtdo1411]

I doubt we get to 40 a game. I'd guess anywhere between 32-36. I see about the same as last year, and I agree with most saying the 3pt % will jump with the addition of Lawson.

 

One thing I don't think anyone has mentioned is Ty Lawson's mid-range game. He is pretty adept at creating his own jumper off the dribble. I know the Rockets as a team are against a midrange jumper as a whole, but as they have shown with Harden and to a lesser extent Brewer (coming off those little pin down screens), if a player is efficient in that area they will allow them to use it. So I actually expect a little uptick in mid-range jumpers this season, just by virtue of having more players that can make them consistently with Brewer and Lawson.