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@  thejohnnygold : (31 December 2016 - 12:01 AM) I imagine Brewer has been "dangling" ever since he signed that last contract. I saw some rumor that Kosta Koufos is at the top of our list for trade targets right now. Those are words I never wanted to hear :lol:
@  majik19 : (30 December 2016 - 08:46 PM) found this hilarious: Zach Lowe of ESPN reports that Houston has been "dangling" Corey Brewer in trade talks, who could provide Sacramento with another wing player in case it loses out on Rudy Gay at some point. But he also noted that Brewer's name hasn't drawn much traction.
@  slick shoes : (28 December 2016 - 07:47 PM) DMo working out for the Lakers per ESPN. I wouldn't hate it, but don't see him there long term for some reason.
@  thejohnnygold : (23 December 2016 - 10:07 PM) Per Tom Haberstroh: Pop said he doesn't watch game tape on the opponent this time of year. "Except for the Rockets. Harden is ridiculous." :)
@  DenverRocket : (20 December 2016 - 12:06 AM) Looks like Clint will be out for a while, MRI revealed micro-fracture of the left fib: http://www.lequipe.f...t-capela/761879
@  JY86er : (19 December 2016 - 03:29 PM) Did he fail the Rockets' physical?
@  majik19 : (16 December 2016 - 02:54 AM) you mean UNrestricted Free Agent.
@  DenverRocket : (15 December 2016 - 11:40 PM) WTF, now we've renounced D-Mo and allowed him to become an RFA! https://twitter.com/...540893321687041
@  thejohnnygold : (10 December 2016 - 04:32 PM) I like that :)
@  redfaithful : (10 December 2016 - 12:47 PM) D'Antoni's remark about Beverly's "winning spirit" in numbers: Rockets 10-2 since PB returned
@  DenverRocket : (09 December 2016 - 04:55 PM) Agreement finally reached apparently, 4yrs @ 35m http://www.espn.com/...-four-year-deal
@  DenverRocket : (07 December 2016 - 09:06 PM) Maybe it is salvageable after all? http://www.espn.com/...nce-offer-sheet
@  ale11 : (07 December 2016 - 08:20 PM) ditto, great read :)
@  DenverRocket : (07 December 2016 - 07:02 PM) Great read, thanks!
@  thejohnnygold : (07 December 2016 - 04:09 PM) Possibly the best article about Morey and what goes into his process. If the balance between subjective and objective decision-making intrigues you then read this article. LINK
@  thejohnnygold : (06 December 2016 - 11:48 PM) Bad, D-Mo! Bad!
@  slick shoes : (06 December 2016 - 07:01 PM) We are in the power position at this point. He can continue to sit out and not get paid while we continue to play without him and build a team that doesn't include him while controlling any move(s) he wants to make. Not smart.
@  DenverRocket : (06 December 2016 - 06:17 PM) Wow! Motiejunas' agent, B.J. Armstrong: "We have our rights. We're not going to show up. We'll see what happens. We'll see what the Rockets do."
@  DenverRocket : (06 December 2016 - 05:40 PM) Rockets could return Motiejunas to restricted free agent status. Working through what happened.
@  DenverRocket : (06 December 2016 - 05:34 PM) According to Feigen: Donatas Motiejunas was a no show for his physical this morning, source said. Rockets weighing options.

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Lowe: Terrence Jones at $15million?


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#1 Red94

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    Posted 05 August 2015 - 12:36 AM

    New post: Lowe: Terrence Jones at $15million?
    By: Rahat Huq

    Zach Lowe today wrote extensively on the extension-eligible class of 2012, a group that includes Houston's Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas.  On Jones, specifically:

    Quote:

     

    Would it be insane for Jones to hold out for at least $15 million per season? Probably not, even though he would likely be the least accomplished player ever to sign an extension that pricey. Would it even be insane for Houston GM Daryl Morey to accept that kind of deal? No one really knows, but Jones’s team will begin extension talks at an eye-popping number.

     

    That kind of market sounds about right given the expected cap increase.  I wrote last week that if Motiejunas proves he's recovered from the back injury which saw him miss the postseason, we'll possibly see Jones moved closer to the deadline.  One interesting byproduct of the new cap universe is the premise that, because there's more money, it can necessarily be spent with indiscretion.  To put it in other words, just simply because Terrence Jones will garner offers at such high figures does not mean such a signing would be wise, or a proper appraisal of the player's real value.  The market itself, with the cash available for buyers, cannot be trusted.

     

    To some meddling Eastern Conference team, hoping to take a flier on a young building block, Jones might be worth the reach.  But for Houston, with a steadier option in Motiejunas, there are better ways in which that same figure can be spent.  Almost undoubtedly, with Motiejunas likely to command a similar sum, the Rockets will not bring back both players long term.

     

    I've written extensively on Jones in relation to my deep mistrust.  Tantalizing in moments, but equally unreliable, at the most critical of times.  I have milk cartons from May bearing his visage.  It is certainly possible, maybe even probable, that with time, the inconsistency which has plagued Jones will be overcome.  But as I've written, Houston right now is not in such a position to wait, and now pay, for development.  They need steady production now in an unforgiving Western Conference where star power forwards loom on a nightly basis.  $15million may no longer be star money, but it is starter money, defined inherently thus as deserving only to a player who is a solid dependable starter.  How many times have you seen Terrence Jones languished on the bench, completely unplayable at the end of close games?

     

    As I wrote at the time of his departure, the biggest loss in the Josh Smith parting was that the team almost had to hold onto Jones.  That wasn't meant as a slight on Jones: I assumed at the time that such a trade chip would be necessary to acquire a player the caliber of Ty Lawson.  But now, the Rockets find themselves in a precarious position.  Assuming the team decides Motiejunas is preferable--and the team almost surely will not opt to prematurely extend either of the two--what does it do with Jones?  While the Rockets' best bet would be a trade to recapture his value, there really aren't any holes on this roster(!).  And a deal for a future pick and/or young prospect would only hamper Houston's postseason chances.  Despite the reasons I outlined above in citing my deep reluctance to commiserate Jones with a payday, he still will be better as an immediate bench option than any other player on the market in February.  Houston might hope the newly drafted Montrezl Harrell can duplicate even a fraction of Jones' energy to begin thinking about a deal.  It's a development we'll need to watch closely.


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    #2 thejohnnygold

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    Posted 05 August 2015 - 04:26 AM

    Rahat, your well thought out response to Lowe's premise is excellent and appreciated.  Mine is....slightly different....

     

    It's as simple as this...

     

    5162828_cdbfbfefa4fda5f898dc30221c82d0ca

     

    ...or put differently....

     

    5ebc2e57d40c90b6c21ded52dd1d7ca6ad7a287b

     

    .........

     

    aadtclqhyzi6qey5rjlv.jpg


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    #3 John P

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      Posted 05 August 2015 - 03:00 PM

      So the question is, what do you do with TJ then....as I think most of us agree that for this team, spending 15M or around there is too much.

       

      My thoughts are (in order of preference):

       

      1) trade him when possible for a decent young replacement.

       

      Yeah.  I am done.

       

      I think that if we do trade him, who or what do we trade him for.

      I think that with Dwight, Capella, and Chuckwagon manning the C position, DMo is the only playoff ready PF on the list.

      Do the rookies work out?  Who knows.

      But maybe we go with a decent big wing vs. a traditional 4, to play more small ball.   As long as that person can play decent D on the Aldridges of the world then it could work.

       

      You know....for all of the PFs that Morey drafted over the last 5 or so years, you would think we would be super deep at the position, but alas we are not.

       

      Regardless, I think a larger wing, or even just maybe playing Ariza at the 4 for some minutes, could be preferrable to Jones in the playoffs.   So with that in mind, we can adjust our expectations of what we want back accordingly.


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      #4 majik19

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        Posted 05 August 2015 - 04:58 PM

        New post: Lowe: Terrence Jones at $15million?
        By: Rahat Huq
         

         Houston might hope the newly drafted Montrezl Harrell can duplicate even a fraction of Jones' energy to begin thinking about a deal.  It's a development we'll need to watch closely.

         

         

        This is exactly it. If Harrell can be reliable in short stretches, then Jones may be somewhat expendable.

         

        It may also depend on our small-ball strategy this year. With Lawson, Harden, Ariza, Beverly, Brewer, McDaniels, and Thornton, there aren't enough minutes at the 1, 2, and 3. And what if Dekker shows the ability to be a reliable contributor too? Then we may see more small ball lineups with these guys occupying the 1-4 positions. That would cut down on our need for Jones to play minutes as well.

         

        Morey may also approach one or both guys about an early extension, just to avoid the madness of restricted FA. He probably wouldn't have any luck, but if say Jones asked for 5 mil/yr less than Motiejunas (just as an example), would he extend Jones and now Motiejunas becomes expendable? 


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        #5 Cooper

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          Posted 05 August 2015 - 05:27 PM

          Unless someone comes in with a killer trade offer they should hang onto him give a qo and see what happens in RFA maybe we cant sign anyone new and it makes sense to keep him even at a  slight overpay he's still tradeable. This years Class is overrated outside of Horford and KD who likely aren't going anywhere.


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          #6 ale11

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          Posted 05 August 2015 - 06:33 PM

           

           

          DMo is the only playoff ready PF on the list.

           

           

           

          D-Mo hasn´t played yet. First year, he wasn't even in the squad on a regular basis (RGV). Second year, Jones was the starter, ultimately benched in favor of Asik. This last time around, missed the whole playoffs. He is not playoff ready, but I'm on board with him being the undisputed PF.

           

           

          What if Howard opts out? Should we stretch ourselves paying him the big bucks he'll be seeking for or should we bet on Jones at PF and Motiejunas at 5? Even though his defense isn't stout, he provides post game which we all know is needed to some degree. And doing that from the 4 spot with Howard on the other side tends to clog the paint, not to mention Howard might not be as on board as he was when he got back from injury to "go with the flow"....I think it all depends on Howard ultimately, whether he wants to stick around or not.


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          #7 tombrokeoff

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          Posted 05 August 2015 - 08:45 PM

          ive enjoyed the recent influx of posts!  hope it continues.


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          #8 Johnny Rocket

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            Posted 05 August 2015 - 10:17 PM

            I'm still not quite sure why the consensus seems to be that D-MO is superior to TJ.  I totally get that there are major questions about TJ--he's disappeared for two years in the playoffs now, he may be a bit undersized to defend some biggers PFs, and his three-point shot (to be charitable) needs a lot of work.  But D-Mo also has a lot of question marks.  He's never posted a league-average PER, he was unreliable after the All-Star break last year, he's not a good rebounder, and he's coming back from major back surgery.  He was pretty bad in the regular season against key playoff teams such as GS and LA Clippers (look the splits at NBA.com), which does not give and one great confidence that he would have been that much better than TJ in the playoffs.  At the end of the day, you have two young PFs brimming with potential, but with a lot of "known unknowns" that will have to be sorted out.  The Rox should be patient and see how each develops over the season.


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            #9 txtdo1411

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            Posted 05 August 2015 - 11:21 PM

            I'm still not quite sure why the consensus seems to be that D-MO is superior to TJ.  I totally get that there are major questions about TJ--he's disappeared for two years in the playoffs now, he may be a bit undersized to defend some biggers PFs, and his three-point shot (to be charitable) needs a lot of work.  But D-Mo also has a lot of question marks.  He's never posted a league-average PER, he was unreliable after the All-Star break last year, he's not a good rebounder, and he's coming back from major back surgery.  He was pretty bad in the regular season against key playoff teams such as GS and LA Clippers (look the splits at NBA.com), which does not give and one great confidence that he would have been that much better than TJ in the playoffs.  At the end of the day, you have two young PFs brimming with potential, but with a lot of "known unknowns" that will have to be sorted out.  The Rox should be patient and see how each develops over the season.

             

            You bring up very good points, but I think the main reason most (or at least myself) feel D-Mo is superior is how he stepped up big when the team needed him to. When we needed him to be the 2nd option behind Harden, he filled in admirably. When the likes of Black, Dorsey, and Papa were getting major minutes in the rotation, he was the one constant that continued to make sure the ship didn't sink. Can you imagine if it would have been Jones with those other 3 in the rotation? We would have likely been slaughtered night in and night out in the paint. 

             

            I would venture to say that those splits you are looking at are misconceiving. D-Mo played a good portion of the season out of position at Center, because that is what we needed of him. He is not a Center, and I honestly don't think it will ever be the best spot for him, so it makes sense that he struggled against the Boguts and Jordans of the world. A full season from D-mo playing predominantly at the 4 (across from Howard or another true Center... not Dorsey), and I would be willing to bet his splits against playoff teams would be much better. I honestly think he would destroy Green if GSW tried to put him on D-mo, but unfortunately he was facing Bogut most of the time. 

             

            Lastly PER is a terrible stat to compare two players that play completely different such as D-Mo and TJ. Not only do they play differently, but different things are asked of them. D-Mo was asked to bang with the Centers, because we had no other options. He was also asked to create his own offense, because honestly we had nothing behind Harden in that department. Being asked to create your own offense and playing out of position are two sure fire ways to see a lower efficiency or PER. Jones was asked to be a garbage man and slasher. Fight like hell for offensive boards, and cut hard to the rim. That is Jones' duty, and he performs it well. He is efficient because he is feeding off of everything/everyone else. He isn't posting up or working from the elbow. He is solely asked to be a garbage man opposite of Dwight Howard. That's a lot different than being asked to be Dwight's quasi-replacement across from Tarik Black or Joey Dorsey.


            Edited by txtdo1411, 05 August 2015 - 11:26 PM.

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            #10 thenit

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              Posted 06 August 2015 - 12:02 AM

              PER is so flawed its ridiculous. Look at some of the names that are up there that has high PER. Amare has 20 rating does that mean he had a better season than DMo and jones? Like txt do said, jones wouldn't have been able to do what DMo did when Howard bev and tj was out. His splits are flawed because he had to play center. While they both have high ceilings DMo is more consistent and the last few games for DMo drop could have been to the poor back.
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              #11 thejohnnygold

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              Posted 06 August 2015 - 03:43 AM

              I agree with txtdo1411 and thenit on the PER thing.  As for D-Mo not showing up against "top" teams like GS and LAC....not so fast.

               

              D-Mo posted 18 & 7 on 8-17 shooting with 2 assists and a block vs. GS on 12/10

               

              He also posted 16 & 8 on 5-10 shooting with 1 assist and 2 steals vs. GS on 11/8

               

              He posted 14 & 7 on 4-8 shooting with 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block vs. GS on 1/17

               

              Oh, there it is...he posted 4 & 3 on 2-8 shooting with 2 assists vs. GS on 1/21 (side note: he only played 20 minutes in this one).  

               

              I guess that's proof enough that D-Mo sucks against GS.   :unsure:  Further, should we judge a player's offensive ability vs. the #1 defense in the league?  Let's look at other games.

               

              He put up 18 & 9 on 7-11 shooting with 1 assist and 1 block vs. LAC on 2/25 (the other team he no-shows against)

               

              He notched 16 & 6 on 8-14 shooting with 3 assists, 1 stl, and 1 blk vs. CHI on 1/5...

              ...and followed that with 15 & 10 on 7-15 shooting with an assist vs. CHI on 2/4.

               

              It really is apples and oranges comparing TJ and D-Mo on offense.  TJ fills his role very well.  I think Morey keeps both for the season, each has a solid showing, and then we'll see how things shake out next Summer.


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              #12 Losthief

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              Posted 06 August 2015 - 12:02 PM

              I'm still not quite sure why the consensus seems to be that D-MO is superior to TJ.  I totally get that there are major questions about TJ--he's disappeared for two years in the playoffs now, he may be a bit undersized to defend some biggers PFs, and his three-point shot (to be charitable) needs a lot of work.  But D-Mo also has a lot of question marks.  He's never posted a league-average PER, he was unreliable after the All-Star break last year, he's not a good rebounder, and he's coming back from major back surgery.  He was pretty bad in the regular season against key playoff teams such as GS and LA Clippers (look the splits at NBA.com), which does not give and one great confidence that he would have been that much better than TJ in the playoffs.  At the end of the day, you have two young PFs brimming with potential, but with a lot of "known unknowns" that will have to be sorted out.  The Rox should be patient and see how each develops over the season.

               

              If we don't have Howard, I think TJones is a better option at starter. With Howard, I think its DMO. So....we should probably wait and see what Howard does. But thats just my opinion.


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              LoSTHieF

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              #13 slick shoes

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              Posted 06 August 2015 - 04:52 PM

              I think that if we do trade him, who or what do we trade him for.

              I think that with Dwight, Capella, and Chuckwagon manning the C position, DMo is the only playoff ready PF on the list.

               

              The Chuck Wagon should NOT be playing center for any reason. He is already undersized for the four spot.


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              when you win two games in a row that's called a winning streak.

              trickin' six digits on kicks and still holdin'.

              #14 slick shoes

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              Posted 06 August 2015 - 04:56 PM

              He probably wouldn't have any luck, but if say Jones asked for 5 mil/yr less than Motiejunas (just as an example), would he extend Jones and now Motiejunas becomes expendable? 

               

              I cannot see DMo becoming expendable in any situation going forward. Morey will get creative with his contract structuring to keep both before DMo goes anywhere. Barring a LARGE upgrade at the four, DMo is the future of our front court.


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              when you win two games in a row that's called a winning streak.

              trickin' six digits on kicks and still holdin'.

              #15 slick shoes

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              Posted 06 August 2015 - 05:02 PM

              D-Mo hasn´t played yet. First year, he wasn't even in the squad on a regular basis (RGV). Second year, Jones was the starter, ultimately benched in favor of Asik. This last time around, missed the whole playoffs. He is not playoff ready, but I'm on board with him being the undisputed PF.

               

               

              What if Howard opts out? Should we stretch ourselves paying him the big bucks he'll be seeking for or should we bet on Jones at PF and Motiejunas at 5? Even though his defense isn't stout, he provides post game which we all know is needed to some degree. And doing that from the 4 spot with Howard on the other side tends to clog the paint, not to mention Howard might not be as on board as he was when he got back from injury to "go with the flow"....I think it all depends on Howard ultimately, whether he wants to stick around or not.

               

              I disagree with DMo not being playoff ready. Though he has never seen any post season play (which drew the ire of this armchair coach in the blazers series last year when TJ completely failed to do anything against LMA along with Asik but that's another conversation all together), I believe running Captain Hook out there against the best of the West will surprise many.

               

              As far as resigning DH12, if he can make it through the season without injury and help us reach the next level, there's no reason not to sign him to whatever he wants. I get the feeling he really likes playing here and might even be willing to take a little less than the max to ensure that we have enough money to keep talent around him.


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              when you win two games in a row that's called a winning streak.

              trickin' six digits on kicks and still holdin'.

              #16 Losthief

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              Posted 06 August 2015 - 08:00 PM

              If we resign him this year to 'max' after next years jump (the 2nd one) he will still be a smaller max than most, so in some ways either opting out this year and signing long term, or going the full 5 is not bad either way with Howard. The 'bad' scenario would be he opts out this year, signs a 1 and 1 and stays healthy then we have to pay him the full new max after the cap reaches the 100+million in stead of the 90 or whatever it hits next summer.

               

              p.s. If im Howards agent (arn teller iirc) then I'm telling him to opt out this year and doing a 1 and 1 max deal for 2016/17 and 2017/18 if Howard is fully healthy and opting out again when the cap is at the highest level. 


              Edited by Losthief, 06 August 2015 - 08:03 PM.

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              LoSTHieF

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              #17 Cooper

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                Posted 06 August 2015 - 08:38 PM

                To me 2 more years of Howard is ideal, cant imagine he's going to be a top center beyond that. 


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                #18 thejohnnygold

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                Posted 06 August 2015 - 09:11 PM

                Here's something to consider when valuing Jones.  Where does he rank at his position?  I don't just mean based on PER, or RAPM, or other such things.  Simply, if we ranked the league's power forwards where would Jones fall?  After that, determining his value and how easily he could be replaced dictates how much we should reasonably pay for his services.  I mean, Earl Clark is just sitting out there right now.  Is Clark that much worse than Jones?  Would we be better with Clark for $1-$2M or Jones at $15M?

                 

                I can't think of a starting PF in the league I wouldn't take over Jones at $15M and there are quite a few back-ups I would take in lieu of paying Jones that much money.  (Does Jared Sullinger start?  I wouldn't want him.)

                 

                Who the heck is going to pay him that much!?!?!


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                #19 Cooper

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                  Posted 06 August 2015 - 09:47 PM

                  I do beleive sullinger is the nominal starter in boston, he sucks compared to jones. Theres some other guys, whoever the lakers trot out, illy in detroit, thad young, kaminsky, whoever indy starts, patrick patterson, Nene, Faried, Garnett, Vonleh/aminu, no idea who plays the 4 in sac Unless they put boogie there. If jones has a good year his agent will ask for around 15 with everyone having cap space and the requirement to spend 90% a lot of money is going to be spent. At this point has he shown less than reggie jackson? Demarre carroll had one good year at 29yrs old and the Raps backed up the brinks truck of cash.


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                  #20 thejohnnygold

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                  Posted 07 August 2015 - 02:59 PM

                  I do beleive sullinger is the nominal starter in boston, he sucks compared to jones. Theres some other guys, whoever the lakers trot out, illy in detroit, thad young, kaminsky, whoever indy starts, patrick patterson, Nene, Faried, Garnett, Vonleh/aminu, no idea who plays the 4 in sac Unless they put boogie there. If jones has a good year his agent will ask for around 15 with everyone having cap space and the requirement to spend 90% a lot of money is going to be spent. At this point has he shown less than reggie jackson? Demarre carroll had one good year at 29yrs old and the Raps backed up the brinks truck of cash.

                   

                  Just to be clear, I am saying Jones at $15M not just Jones.

                   

                  The Lakers have promising rookie Julius Randle and I think Ryan Kelly is still backing him up.

                   

                  Ilyasova and Marcus Morris (likely gets some minutes at the 4) are both good stretch 4's....if Illy can stay healthy.

                   

                  Thad Young is a guy lots of people have pined for and his numbers compare favorably to Jones' (as do Ilyasova and Morris).

                   

                  I believe the Pacers are going to try and play Paul George at PF like a Super-Draymond-Green.

                   

                  Patrick Patterson is a solid player who is relegated to spot up 3 shooter and defender for Toronto, but he also has a solid mid-range jumper and can play 3 positions plus he does it for $6M.....which is my point.

                   

                  DeMarcus Cousins wants to play the 4 in Sacramento and they will also likely put Rudy Gay in for small ball.

                   

                  Nene is a great interior player and would be better served playing center than PF.

                   

                  Faried is better at doing the things we praise Jones for bringing to the table for our offense, but I'm glad you brought him up.  He gets paid $12M to be that guy and Denver has found out they are over-paying him....so why would we want Jones at $15M?

                   

                  Kevin Garnett? He can't log starter minutes, but he can still bring a lot to the table...his role in Minny is a PR stunt/farewell tour while they let the other guys grow and hope Anthony Bennett figures out the game of basketball.  I'd be happy to have KG on our squad to play 15-20 mpg...is he that different from Corey Brewer (besides age)?  Both are going to make $8M next season.

                   

                  I think Portland is going to go with Ed Davis--another guy like Faried, Jones, etc. and for far less money.  Vonleh is still developing, but I believe signs are good for him.

                   

                  Kaminsky is an intriguing prospect.  He's the baseball equivalent of a 5-tool player.  The only question is if he can handle the jump to NBA-caliber speed and strength.

                   

                  I'm ignoring context here.  Obviously, we are contending for a title and aren't looking for project rookies.  I'm only looking at players in a vacuum in relation to production vs. salary cap usage.

                   

                  The bottom line is I believe Jones, while a solid player, is easily replaced (give or take a little) and for far less money than $15M.  Maybe we lose his extra good dribbling/shot-blocking, but gain better rebounding/defending/three-point shooting....is that so bad?


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