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[Red94]

New post: How important is Ariza?
By: Rahat Huq

By now, if you're a capable Internet user, you've heard the talk - the Rockets again this offseason intend to be active in free agency.  The names tossed about, as par for the course for Daryl Morey, are the two big fish at the top of the class: LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love.  Unfortunately, barring some feat of cap gymnastics I have yet to conceive, any outgoing permutation suitable for a match would involve Trevor Anthony Ariza, Houston's esteemed emotional leader.  Is it worth it?

 

The examination requires various questions.  First, we're all in agreement that the Ariza role is definitively essential.  Last year, at this time, I posed the question of whether the Parsons-Harden duo could go deep in the playoffs.  The premise was that the team's defense simply could not sustain the pressure of having two weak points at the wings.  Through this past season's results, that question has been unequivocally answered.  I hate to mix causation with correlation, but let's be real - Houston doesn't even get past Dallas with that kind of ease without Ariza on the wing, much less make it all the way to the West Finals.  We learned that you absolutely must pair James Harden with a stout defender at the '3' to go deep.  There just weren't any other variables overwhelming enough to directly attribute to Houston's success.

 

The question now becomes whether Ariza himself is replaceable.

 

First, can you even replace him?  People toss around the '3 and D' phrase nonchalantly as if these guys grow on trees, but how many of these players really exist?  You can try and develop one, but we're no longer in a phase to be waiting on player development at critical positions (see: Jones, Terrence).

 

But lets say you're even able to replace him with another veteran wing - maybe K.J. McDaniels shows signs this summer of developing an outside shot.  Is there something intrinsic to Ariza himself, after this run, that is indispensable?  What is the value of continuity?  I'm not really sure.  It helps of course, to keep a group together; the value of chemistry cannot be overstated.  But if you think someone else can replace that same production, how much are you really sacrificing, if it means the ability to also add an elite piece?

 

To me, it's emotional.  I, like every other fan, become attached to certain players, especially after a run like the one the Rockets just had.  It's important to disentangle those emotions from the raw, cold analysis, and that's why Daryl Morey is paid the big bucks to make the decisions.  I tell myself that the Rockets need Ariza next year because they'll lose the experience they gained in giving up a vital cog who was part of the run.  But in the end result, I don't know how much that even matters.

[Lucas Daniel Uribe]

He is a good defender. The most important game this season was when Ariza matched up with LeBron. LeBron going to get his but Ariza played solid Defense. Keep him.

[NorEastern]

You are correct Rahat, there is absolutely no salary path that gets the Rockets Love or LMA without giving up Ariza and getting no salary back. That by itself can be problematic, especially since Brewer and Bev would have to be released.

 

Assuming that the Rockets do the obvious and attempt to keep this team together how does the team stack up defensively? Harden - average defender, Bev - slightly above average defender, D-Mo - very good defender, Ariza and Howard - excellent defenders.

 

Now assume that Ariza is gone and LMA or Love is signed. Then you have a ? at point guard, Harden - average defender, ? at small forward, Love - very bad defender or LMA - average defender, and Howard - excellent defender. Where exactly will the Rockets get defense?

 

Basically I do not believe that Morey is going to make a significant play for LMA or Love this off season. The defense would be decimated and how much more offense does starting Love or LMA over D-Mo bring to the team? Eight points a game? The Rockets would lose far more than that without Ariza because the wing defense would be in tatters.

[majik19]

You are correct Rahat, there is absolutely no salary path that gets the Rockets Love or LMA without giving up Ariza and getting no salary back. That by itself can be problematic, especially since Brewer and Bev would have to be released.

 

Assuming that the Rockets do the obvious and attempt to keep this team together how does the team stack up defensively? Harden - average defender, Bev - slightly above average defender, D-Mo - very good defender, Ariza and Howard - excellent defenders.

 

Now assume that Ariza is gone and LMA or Love is signed. Then you have a ? at point guard, Harden - average defender, ? at small forward, Love - very bad defender or LMA - average defender, and Howard - excellent defender. Where exactly will the Rockets get defense?

 

Basically I do not believe that Morey is going to make a significant play for LMA or Love this off season. The defense would be decimated and how much more offense does starting Love or LMA over D-Mo bring to the team? Eight points a game? The Rockets would lose far more than that without Ariza because the wing defense would be in tatters.

 

Morey would have to be banking on the belief that he can find a 3 and D wing for cheap, but can't find a 3rd superstar easily.

 

Nick Johnson has shown flashes of being a great individual defender - maybe he could provide defense from the 1. I think Ariza's defense is semi-replaceable. And I think his 3 point shooting is definitely replaceable. It's just very difficult to find that in one package. 

[NorEastern]

Morey would have to be banking on the belief that he can find a 3 and D wing for cheap, but can't find a 3rd superstar easily.

 

Nick Johnson has shown flashes of being a great individual defender - maybe he could provide defense from the 1. I think Ariza's defense is semi-replaceable. And I think his 3 point shooting is definitely replaceable. It's just very difficult to find that in one package. 

I believe the model you are suggesting would fail next season, as demonstrated by the Clippers performance in the playoffs this season. However it would in all likelihood show benefits in 2016. And I disagree that KJ or Johnson will make a difference on a WCF team next season. Such beliefs must always be accompanied by a very pious prayer begging for divine intervention because there is absolutely no other reason to believe that it will come true.

[John P]

One possible way to make it happen:

 

1) Resign Josh Smith to a similar contract as this year (after playing so well he will get more money elsewhere, but maybe he also wants a shot at the title and is willing to sacrifice.  A very hard put.

2) Sign and trade Ariza, Pop, etc... for LMA.

3) Trade T Jones (hopefully) or DMo (god I hope not) for a good 3 and D player (young version of Danny Green?)

 

I would not do this though for Love.   He is a great player but only with LMA's average defense does it make sense.

 

...and you still have a big fat question mark at PG.

 

I think a better option is to keep Ariza and work with Pop, Jones, draft picks to pick up a playmaking PG who can take the offense and create, but maybe not necessarily a starter.  We need to be able to rest Harden more often and also let him sit when he has a bad game like game 5 vs GS

[majik19]

I believe the model you are suggesting would fail next season, as demonstrated by the Clippers performance in the playoffs this season. However it would in all likelihood show benefits in 2016. And I disagree that KJ or Johnson will make a difference on a WCF team next season. Such beliefs must always be accompanied by a very pious prayer begging for divine intervention because there is absolutely no other reason to believe that it will come true.

Oh trust me, I understand that believing Johnson (or McDaniels) could be a contributor on a championship team is a huge leap of faith. I'm just saying that in the scenario where we sign and trade for a 3rd max contract player, we'd have to find contributors on the cheap due to salary cap implications. 

 

Best case scenario would be to sign and trade Ariza, Jones, Pap, whatever else for LMA or Love, and then coax Brewer and Smith to stay so we can still have talent while going over the cap. Still leaves us a big hole at PG - we'd essentially be stuck resigning Beverly or going with Terry (assuming we resign) and Johnson soaking up minutes at the 1.  

[Losthief]

Sign and trade some of our FAs (bev and brewer for example) plus pick up papa's 5 mil (and whatever assets needed for Port/Clev to do a sign and trade, a 2nd round pick or two) could get it done as the gymnastics necessary. Sure it requires them doing a sign and trade, but they get nothing otherwise if LA/Love just walk so....why wouldn't they? 

 

So say you sign bev at 6 mil, brewer at 4 mil, and have papa at 5 mil and that is 15 mil a year (add in tjones 2.4 mil) and your already at 17.4 million w/o adding too much as just filler. Its even easier if we just have brew pick up his option (5 mil) then your at 18.4 million. Some filler if needed and you should be good to go. (keep in mind you only need to be within a percentage, i.e. incoming salary can only be 125 percent of outgoing, so that 18.4 million would give a figure of 23 million allowed for us to take on in a sign and trade for one of those guys (or max money).

 

Not saying it would be the best option, or that it would happen, but Love/LMA (max guy) and keeping ariza aren't exclusive. Plus with the cap jumping next year we don't even have to worry about Luxury hell long-term with it.

Edited by Losthief, 04 June 2015 - 01:38 AM.

[NorEastern]

Sign and trade some of our FAs (bev and brewer for example) plus pick up papa's 5 mil (and whatever assets needed for Port/Clev to do a sign and trade, a 2nd round pick or two) could get it done as the gymnastics necessary. Sure it requires them doing a sign and trade, but they get nothing otherwise if LA/Love just walk so....why wouldn't they? 

 

So say you sign bev at 6 mil, brewer at 4 mil, and have papa at 5 mil and that is 15 mil a year (add in tjones 2.4 mil) and your already at 17.4 million w/o adding too much as just filler. Its even easier if we just have brew pick up his option (5 mil) then your at 18.4 million. Some filler if needed and you should be good to go. (keep in mind you only need to be within a percentage, i.e. incoming salary can only be 125 percent of outgoing, so that 18.4 million would give a figure of 23 million allowed for us to take on in a sign and trade for one of those guys (or max money).

 

Not saying it would be the best option, or that it would happen, but Love/LMA (max guy) and keeping ariza aren't exclusive. Plus with the cap jumping next year we don't even have to worry about Luxury hell long-term with it.

The Rockets if they ditch absolutely everyone they can (including their first round draft pick for nothing this season) it would only free up $10.2M. And why would Portland or Cleveland take absolute dregs for Love or LMA? And that is what you are proposing. Dregs.

 

P.S. Bev it not signing for more than Dallas will offer. And after Parsons perhaps Cuban is feeling a little dazed offering more money than Rockets players are worth. He fits in so few rotations because most teams actually depend on their point guards to produce either significant points or assists. Or both. $3.2M/year.

[Losthief]

they'd (port/clev whoever) trade cause they get nothing for them if they walk, it happens all the time. Hence we give them a couple of 2nd rounders for there troubles. Both wade and lebron were sign and traded to miami originally not signed outright. The 32nd pick and next years 1st (and bev is a decent player) would be worth it versus just letting them walk unless they are going to use the space elsewhere. Especially for Port, which can lose both LA and Wes Matthews this year and have to go into a retool/rebuild.

 

Again i am not saying it happens, but we are not freeing up enough cap space via free agency, it is going to be via a sign and trade if we do anything. Plus players like it cause then they get more years/money. In this case you gotta realize if its a UFA not a RFA the old team has no choice other than to let them walk or facilitate a trade. They are not shopping for 'best deals', but forced to take whatever is offered as long as its worth the incoming salary (i.e. two draft picks and bev worth papa/brew salaries for 1 year). In this case your giving bev a bump in pay to make the numbers work. Hell if it takes it and we are are getting one of them w/o giving up ariza/dmo/tjones (or harden/howard as well ) you'd have to think about giving the pellies pick as well if thats what it took for them to take on the salary, and likely could turn tjones/dmo into a pick comparable. Or just give them tjones to sweeten the pot.

 

edit: again im not saying its likely to happen, just that it wouldn't necessarily take ariza to make the numbers work.

Edited by Losthief, 04 June 2015 - 04:29 AM.

[thenit]

@Losthief

 

Why would any team trade their all stars for one or two rotation players with no high ceilings, especially a PG where there are a so many quality pgs around the league. Unless we package that deal with 2 first rounders and 2 2nd rounders pick they rather just take the cap space than getting stuck with salary for rotation players like brewer and bev for multiple years. I doubt those players resign for a year to help us out in a trade. 

 

I understand that its not likely but we would need to kidnap the owner's or Gms children to get that deal through. 

Edited by thenit, 04 June 2015 - 05:05 AM.

[Losthief]

Why wouldn't they (players) take a one year deal this year? The cap is about to jump 20 million inflating how much they are able to make its likely we see a lot of 1 year deals this year regardless across the league w/ maybe player options (in case they get hurt). For bev, locking him in at reasonable rate for the same reason would be worth it to another Team. 6 mil under the new cap is gonna be like a 3 mil contract now. He might not be great, but he would be worth that much or easy to flip for that much.

 

Papa wouldn't have a choice (team option)...and the 32nd pick (basically a late 1st w/ a lower cap/salary commitment) and next years 1st would be worth it to them I feel like....its not like i am forcing them to take dorsey or another scrub...bev, brewer, even papa are potential rotation players. And if needed one of tjones/pellies pick would be basically that 2 first rounders. (2 1sts and 2 2nds are what Lebron cost...and neither Love nor LA are Lebron and everyone said maimi overpaid for Lebron in that trade). Bosh took two 1sts and that was still a usually high cost for this situation.

 

p.s. cap space isn't as useful as it used to be now that everyone is gonna have it next year. (2016 offseason). Its not a scarce resource its why expiring contracts aren't as valuable as they used to be a few years ago when you could get picks for 'em. GMs got smarter with cap management and the cap rose.

 

p.s.s. again hypothetically if they (the other team) didn't want those players you could turn them into picks via a 3 team trade as long as our outgoing salary matches the incoming it doesn't matter allowing the team losing the all-star to get a trade exception plus picks and allowing a 3rd team to get say tjones/bev for a future 1st or something. Say....new york or LAL or somewhere else w/o a starting pg/pf with enough cap space to accept them. My real point in all of this is it's not that hard to work around a soft cap...

Edited by Losthief, 04 June 2015 - 06:06 AM.

[thejohnnygold]

OK Losthief.  Sure, hypothetically this can happen.  If we can all just agree that in a world of infinite possibilities this is one of them then we can move on.  

 

I agree with the others.  This happens every year when trade talk blossoms.  For some reason, people forget to factor in the other team.  Portland has no need for our scraps.  Their roster is loaded top to bottom.  In a three team scenario, we would have to unload some of our best talent (think Motie + Capela + picks + enough salary) for a team to offer up anything Portland might want (essentially, quality future first round picks plus a replacement PF).  That makes us worse, not better.

 

Also forgotten is the fact that other offers will be made.  Portland is not sitting by the phone anxiously hoping for Morey to call.  If they think Aldridge is leaving then they are already calling every other team to start the bidding.  You think the Wizards wouldn't offer Nene, Humphries, and whatever draft picks they want for a chance to conquer the East?

 

Aldridge has to agree to any of this and he may be more interested in situation than money (he's made plenty).  I could see Cuban trying to convince him to play center next to Dirk.  The Spurs are a definite threat to sign him out right.  I'm sure Morey will kick the tires on an LMA deal, but my jaw would hit the floor if it actually materializes.

 

Moving on to Beverley's possible fit in Dallas--I actually like the move for Cuban (depending on price).  They basically have Harden-Lite in Monta Ellis so the situation is nearly identical.  If Cuban can snag Beverley and DeAndre Jordan I think Dallas could easily finish top 4 next season presuming they can keep Ellis, Aminu, and put a decent bench around them.

 

I'm very intrigued to see if we can keep KJ McDaniels.  Somebody will roll the dice on him and it is my understanding that we can't match even a medium sized offer.  (if anyone has knowledge of this please share.  I forget the number, but it's around $2.2M is the max we can offer....not sure if it is accurate as the person who told me wasn't very helpful in explaining their knowledge.)

 

I think Ariza is here to stay.  Ideally, we keep McDaniels (fingers crossed) and over the next 3 seasons he slides into Ariza's starting role and Ariza slides back into his reserve role.  The "3 & D" guy is probably the 3rd most coveted archetype a team needs.  Teams need elite stars, rim protection, and then the 3 & D guy.  If you can't get a star at the SF position then you need a guy like Ariza.

 

D-Mo and Dwight are the most important players in our front court.  I like Jones and Smith, but I do not think retaining them is as crucial as upgrading the back court.

 

Holy cow!  Just saw that LMA has put his home in Portland up for sale.....that's all I need to hear.  He's leaving.  LINK

 

Speaking of unsubstantiated conjecture, did anyone else hear that Harden was hanging out in Los Angeles with Ty Lawson?  Looks like I may have to start warming up to him.  I wonder if Morey will go after him and Lin?  

[Alituro]

I don't think Ariza will be as easy to replace as some may feel. Yes, there are other "3 and D" wings out there but the ones that could be had at a discount compared to Ariza are either raw and in need of major development (which we cannot afford) or are just simply physically inferior. The thing about Ariza is that he can be switched onto anyone defensively, save for a Howard or Jordan style center. He can stay in front of PGs and he can bother the shots of lengthy, jump shooting bigs (like LMA), and everything in between. I cannot think of anyone in the league who fits the "3 and D" wing mold that has the versatility defensively that Ariza does. You also have to know that you need to replace a terrific on-court leader and the veteran, championship pedigree that he brings.

 

Going after LMA or Love also means that we have to ditch D-mo as our starting PF. While LMA would be a no-brainer because he's easily a top-10 player and that would give us 3 of those. I think you would be giving up too much for Love though. Way too much defense is lost if you have to give up Ariza and not have D-mo starting. Love is going to be good shooting and he will dominate long rebounds, but isn't the playmaker in the post that D-mo is, and not nearly the defender.

 

Personally I'm ready to give D-mo the keys to the PF slot full-time. I think he's fixin' to blow up, and it's one of the stories I'm anticipating most about next season. Sign a ringless vet at the minimum to spell him for 12 minutes per game and move on to other problems of our roster.

 

It always fun to speculate about big moves in the offseason, especially with Morey at our helm. But, guys, we went to the WCF last season and was competitive in all but 1 game of that series, we won the toughest division in the history of the sport, and were 3rd in the entire league last season. This roster doesn't need major changes that shake it's core, it's foundation. It needs minor tweaks. We need another backcourt playmaker/ball handler, who doesn't suck defensively. That's really about it. Also we need to ditch the wildly inconsistent performers in Jones and Smith, thank them for their services and move on, for good.

[Alituro]

 

 

 

 

Moving on to Beverley's possible fit in Dallas--I actually like the move for Cuban (depending on price).  They basically have Harden-Lite in Monta Ellis so the situation is nearly identical.  If Cuban can snag Beverley and DeAndre Jordan I think Dallas could easily finish top 4 next season presuming they can keep Ellis, Aminu, and put a decent bench around them.

 

 

 

Maaaaaan... I thought we talked about this.

 

GUYS! We have a closet Mavs fan! And he moderates! I found the mole!

[NorEastern]

The Rockets are able to exceed the salary cap and match any offers for Brewer and Bev. The Rockets do not have their room exception (it is available only every other year and the Rockets used it last season to sign Smith) but the Rockets do have the full mid-level exception and if they use it they can certainly sign KJ. Otherwise they are limited to a $1.2M/year offer or some portion of the MLE.

 

The Rockets do not have the assets available to trade for Love or LMA without using Harden or Howard. There are at least 10 teams with a need for Love or LMA with significantly more available assets than the Rockets. The Rockets only hope would be if Love or LMA decide to take less money and bolt aka Howard. But then they would probably bolt to SA or Dallas.

 

There are, by my count, only two teams in the NBA that Bev could start for. Dallas and Houston. The reason is obvious. Ellis and Harden.

 

I actually question the Rocket's need for LMA or Love. $20 versus $2M next season adding at the very most 8 points and 4 rebounds and much much poorer defense. And this assumes that D-Mo does not continue to improve.

[Jatman20]

Ariza is too important to our team.....it has become a wings league. Today Hoopshype.com and Hoopsrumor.com each noted McHale interview with Sportstalk 790 in Houston. McHale reports Houston will try to lure Llull this summer. Draft Grant or Wright (Tyus-bad back during workout with Houston reps yesterday). I feel GSW has set the bar with wings, but I like our chances if we set the team up in a similar manner..........................
GSW: Curry/ Livingston/ Barbosa/ Klay/ H Barnes/ Iggy vs Houston: Grant or Wright/ Llull/ KJ/ Harden/ Ariza/ Brewer/ sign Aminu. Aminu will exercise his player option; while Dallas commits money in offers to Tyson Chandler, D Jordan, Beverley, Monta Ellis ( He was their offense last 2 yrs).....as we remember with D12&Melo&Bosh that can consume time.
Aminu can defend 1-4 positions and this years playoffs was a coming of age for him. He can be a DPOY candidate....like K. Leonard. Not all deadeye shooters play defense. I wish they did.

Llull/Harden/Grant or Wright will be your play makers, with our wings create fast break demons.....the interchangeable parts would be awesome.
Grant/Wright/Llull + Brewer+Harden+Ariza, any 3 of these guys + Aminu at the 4 and D12 at Center would create major trouble for the league.

Article which I tend to agree with.....I'm sure not all will.


http://upsidemotor.c...und the Network

Edited by Jatman20, 05 June 2015 - 04:32 AM.

[Losthief]

I really don't see how 'shopping' is possible. If LMA or Love decide to leave to go somewhere else its not up to portland/cleveland where they are going (aka who they could sign and trade with). At that point it is about just getting something from losing a stud...it is not a open market deal thing like a normal trade there is no bidding process for portland/clev its only up to the player. If they were restricted or still under contract of course that is different, but its really just free agency to teams already at/near the cap...but obviously im not expressing myself clearly so i'll drop it. But as long as the assets outweigh whatever salary they take on from us no reason not to do the sign and trade for port/clev:

 

So what is having to pay 1 year worth of brewer/papa and whatever amount of bev (or whoever) worth to another team? I'd say a future 1st and/or 2 2nds (or tjones and the 32nd pick would be my guess)....that's my point, not that the assets need to equal the star he's leaving anyways.

 

-----

I really don't think Llull is coming: http://www.gigantes....el-mejor-sitio/

 

for those who don't read spanish: The nba is not an obsession for me. I want to win titles and im already in a good situation for that.

 

Plus he has rudy frenandaz and another dude on his team telling him bad stuff about the nba anyways.

 

Yes the rockets want him and will pursue him, but w/o a starting role guarantee i don't think he's coming and I don't see morey giving that but I could be wrong.

 

-----

i'd love aminu...but that could be b/c of how well he plays against us. His overall numbers against the league aren't that good, but he passed my eye tests lol.

 

Also yeah...too bad about tyrus i liked him alot.

 

I might be ok with Lin as a backup...depends on the price i guess.

Edited by Losthief, 05 June 2015 - 09:02 AM.

[thejohnnygold]

Thanks for clearing up the KJ situation, NorEastern.

 

I also agree with you guys that D-Mo is likely to come into next season and be better than he already was this one...which is amazing.

 

I think there is a decent chance we see Terrence Jones shipped out for a draft pick and Luis Scola comes back on a vet minimum deal.  I'm not sure I like that move.

 

Also, I am no Mavs fan.  I will not stand for this McCarthyism!  

[Mario Peña]

I'm in the "Ariza is too important" camp without any reservations. He is easily the third most important player on this team in my opinion.

Also something else I've noticed the last year or so. I see team building with a relationship history element creeping in (more than before and yes I know it is not an uncommon occurrence but seems more premeditated now). If I'm not mistaken Ariza and Harden are friends beyond the court, Smith and Howard we all know have been life long friends and the Brewer/McHale relationship goes back many years. Although not a big part of the equation I do think some of these ties are essential to building a close team at this point of the culture building Morey is tasked with.