17 replies to this topic

[thejohnnygold]

 

This is where the Rockets (and their fans) find themselves.  It's quiet.  Too quiet.  Here we are, entering the Western Conference Finals against the Warriors.  It seemed destined since the beginning of the season.  The Warriors and Rockets broke out of the gates strong and, as the season draws to a close, are pitted against each other to determine which team will hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

 

My apologies to the Cavs and Hawks, but this year's champion is coming from the Western Conference.  Thus, in this fan's biased opinion we are watching the true NBA Finals starting tonight.  History won't record it this way (nor should it).  As fans--as people who live, eat, and breathe this game--we owe respect and acknowledgement of this reality to both the Warriors and the Rockets.  One of them has to overcome a champion-caliber juggernaut just to earn the right to play for the actual trophy.

 

Technically, this has already occurred for both teams.  Houston toppled a very good Clippers team after dispatching short-handed Dallas while the Warriors overcame a strong Grizzlies team (thanks, Tony Allen's hamstring) after giving Anthony Davis his first taste of post season competition.  I think most of us agree that any of the 4 teams in the Western Conference Semis was good enough to win it all.  In the end, there can be only one.

 

In my excitement for this upcoming series I scoured the internet for some Rockets articles to help feed the fanatic in me.  It's been....disappointing.  It's almost as if no one wants to stick their neck out and hype the Rockets for fear of appearing foolish since, apparently, we are 100% losing this series.  What!?!?!?

 

There are lots of reasons this series is up for grabs.  There are lots of reasons to be excited beyond the joy of simply being here.  We can win this thing.  I'm completely serious.  WE CAN WIN THIS THING!

 

 

That was us.  Yet, instead of becoming extinguished under the power and the pressure of the NBA playoffs something else happened.  We rose up.  We grew stronger.  From coach to player, everyone found a new, deeper level.

 

I have seldom found myself inspired by Dwight Howard.  Awed?  Amazed?  Amused?  Aghast, even?  Yes.  Yet, in game 6, after getting two early fouls, there he was on camera waiving off Coach McHale who wanted to sub him out in order to protect him from further hindrance.  Two things happened.  First, McHale believed in him and allowed him to stay in the game.  Second, Dwight came through playing 40 minutes, posting a 20 & 21, and playing his butt off on defense while netting only 2 more fouls.  Dwight inspired me with that performance.  It showed me that he gets it--he is ready.  (He tried it again in game 7, but McHale wasn't going to roll the dice two games in a row--which I also agree with).

 

Josh Smith will always be Josh Smith...and I've made my peace with that.  Yes, he makes risky passes, jacks unnecessary threes early in the shot clock, and is just as likely to fill a box score as he is to leave it empty.  Yet, there he was taking it to Blake Griffin, making him work on defense and offense.  There he was, in the biggest of moments blossoming under the pressure--not wilting.  His path has not been easy and the meat grinder the public and media have run him through over the years would have left most people a rattled mess--at best.

 

People will continue to pick on his flaws, but what I see in Josh Smith is a guy whose resilience and lack of fear make him a nightmare for other teams.  Combined with a quiet determination, a knack for defense, and a skill set that would please Bruce Lee if he were here watching the NBA.

 

 

Combined, I believe Dwight and Josh make each other better and stronger mostly because they truly love one another and don't want to let the other down.  You can't measure that and it cannot be over-estimated.

 

James Harden takes a lot (read: tons and tons and tons...) of flack for just about everything he does.  Even compliments come through clinched teeth and are usually delivered in the most back-handed fashion.  I suppose if I only read box scores and Twitter I'd feel the same way.  The reality is he is an MVP and opposing teams know it.  Take a look at this and think about the level of defense/game planning he has had to fight through to achieve it.

 

 

That's seriously good, people.  He's playing less and producing more.  He's also got a .618 TS%.  

 

The Warriors will test him with Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala along with having Green and Bogut help inside.  I don't think the Warriors will offer much more resistance than the Clippers did.  Redick and Paul played inside James' jersey as much as the referees would allow and DeAndre Jordan is an excellent rim protector (despite popular opinion I can't understand).  I actually think James will have a better go of it against the W's defense.

 

The W's will have to prove they can defend our pick n roll sets.  They will have to keep Bogut out of foul trouble.  They will try to force us into playing small ball only to realize we are also good at small ball.

 

Personally, I want us to try and shut down everyone else and let Curry go wild.  It won't be pretty.  It may hurt us at first, but I think he will wear down over a series as fatigue and pressure begin to burden him.  It is a strategy that requires diligence to see it through and is risky considering who he is.  I believe it takes a team to win and I believe taking his team away from him (as best we can) will work.

 

Our role players--that filthy, nasty term--are what will make this series.  Harden will be there.  Dwight will be there.  Josh, Corey, Trevor, Jet, Pablo, and Terrence are what we've got to stack up against the W's group of Green, Barnes, Livingston, Iguodala, Lee, Barbosa, Speights (who is out for game 1), and Ezeli.  Yes, they are deep and talented.  They have speed, length, size, offense, and defense on their bench.  Whatever is needed they can adapt to.

 

The challenge is real, but so are we.  Be patient as there is a strong chance we come home down 0-2.  That is ok.  We all know it's not over until one team wins 4.  I have yet to find a single soul outside of the Rockets' camp who thinks we stand a chance.  That's just the way we like it...

 

[NorEastern]

If the Rockets are even going to be competitive with the Warriors in the WCF they need to up their variance on offense and continue to work their tails of playing defense. Their is no other way. Morey and McHale understand this. The Clippers are better at everything basketball related than the Rockets. They perhaps are the strongest NBA team since the 1997 Bulls.

 

The only available way to increase variance on offense is to take more three point shots. Many more three point shots. Look for McHale to go with the hot shooters in every game. Look for many "slow" fast break corner threes. The Rockets really need to hit 40%+ from beyond the arc to have any chance of going to the finals.

 

Unfortunately, increasing variance has a dark side. If those threes are not falling expect the Rockets to get run out of the building. I foresee several 20+ point defeats.

[txtdo1411]

If the Rockets are even going to be competitive with the Warriors in the WCF they need to up their variance on offense and continue to work their tails of playing defense. Their is no other way. Morey and McHale understand this. The Clippers are better at everything basketball related than the Rockets. They perhaps are the strongest NBA team since the 1997 Bulls.

 

The only available way to increase variance on offense is to take more three point shots. Many more three point shots. Look for McHale to go with the hot shooters in every game. Look for many "slow" fast break corner threes. The Rockets really need to hit 40%+ from beyond the arc to have any chance of going to the finals.

 

Unfortunately, increasing variance has a dark side. If those threes are not falling expect the Rockets to get run out of the building. I foresee several 20+ point defeats.

 

Man I was feeling some really good vibes from Johnny's post, and then had them straight ruined by your post lol. Thanks JG for the well thought out, and optimistic post. Regardless of the outcome of this series, I am extremely proud of what the organization has accomplished this season. Now let's keep it rolling, and give GS a series they won't forget!

[slick shoes]

The W's will have to prove they can defend our pick n roll sets.  They will have to keep Bogut out of foul trouble.  They will try to force us into playing small ball only to realize we are also good at small ball.

 

Personally, I want us to try and shut down everyone else and let Curry go wild.  It won't be pretty.  It may hurt us at first, but I think he will wear down over a series as fatigue and pressure begin to burden him.  It is a strategy that requires diligence to see it through and is risky considering who he is.  I believe it takes a team to win and I believe taking his team away from him (as best we can) will work.

 

Bogut in foul trouble is the key to the series in my opinion. Without him, they have no true rim protector, opening up the paint for James and the others. Be agressive at the rim early and often, putting their bigs at risk. This will also open up things defensively as Dwight will have no true threat to mind and can focus on protecting the paint. The W's will shy away from going to the basket and retreat to their familiar three point line which is the second key to the series. CHASE THEM OFF THE LINE!!!! Limiting the W's to a majority of contested mid range jumpers is a sure fire way to swing the odds in our favor. We'll see what McHale and JB have drawn up. Let's get it in!

[Cooper]

Thompson and Iggy are going to be even tougher on Harden than reddick and paul because 1 they won't be tired and 2 they are both 6-7 compared to 6-3 reddick and barely 6ft paul it will be more difficult to rise over them for open midrange looks if Bogut/green are sealing the paint.

While GS bench is very solid thats likely going to have to be the part of the game we make up ground with big performances from the headbands and/or Jones. On defense steph will get his but if ariza can bottle up Klay like tony allen did Barnes, green those guys are nice players but aren't constantly going to kill us and besides some nifty passing and screens bogut is a big zero on offense.

From what I've read most people have the Ws in 4 or five, I think we can win two home games for sure and if the defense plays like the last few games along with some lucky breaks, could come out on top or a least force a game 7.

[thejohnnygold]

If the Rockets are even going to be competitive with the Warriors in the WCF they need to up their variance on offense and continue to work their tails of playing defense. Their is no other way. Morey and McHale understand this. The Clippers are better at everything basketball related than the Rockets. They perhaps are the strongest NBA team since the 1997 Bulls.

 

The only available way to increase variance on offense is to take more three point shots. Many more three point shots. Look for McHale to go with the hot shooters in every game. Look for many "slow" fast break corner threes. The Rockets really need to hit 40%+ from beyond the arc to have any chance of going to the finals.

 

Unfortunately, increasing variance has a dark side. If those threes are not falling expect the Rockets to get run out of the building. I foresee several 20+ point defeats.

 

I'm not sure I agree with you here.  I don't think we want to try and straight up out pace them on offense.  Sure, jacking 38-40 threes a game could work if we are hitting them, but the odds of achieving that 4 out of 7 games is a bad gamble in my estimation.  Just like in Vegas, you can roll the dice and get lucky once or twice, but if you let it ride too long the odds almost always get you.

 

Instead, I truly think this series hinges on the defensive side.  It can be done.  The Grizzlies held GS to 101, 90, 89, 101, 98, 108.  Part of that was pace, and part of that was limiting their 3 pt. shooting.  The 2 wins for Memphis coincided with identical 23.1% shooting from deep for the W's.  In fact, the box scores are eerily similar for both Memphis wins:

 

Golden State: 31-74 fg's, 6-26 3fg's, 22-28 ft's, and 19 assists in game 2.  32-74, 6-26, 19-28, and 20 assists in game 3.

 

In their 4 wins they shot 42% from deep once and above 46% 3 times.  It's not a  mystery.  The three point line must be defended.  We've got Dwight, Josh, and Terrence.  The perimeter players have got to trust them to make plays and, more importantly, they have to make some plays.

 

I think it is more important to avoid long stretches without scoring.  As long as we keep a slow and steady supply of points we can endure any spurts they put together and not feel "blown out".  What happens is they will pair up a string of 4-5 threes and a couple break aways with a drought from the opposing team and in the blink of an eye they are up 20 points.

 

I think offensive rebounding will be crucial for this.  Jason Terry has a knack for killing opponent runs.  Drawing fouls and shooting free throws will help as well.  Limiting turnovers.  That has to be the broken record for the Rockets the last 3 years.  The good news is GS coughed it up a lot against Memphis.  Hopefully we can do the same.

 

I think we are going to need one thing for sure in at least 2 games...maybe 3.  James Harden has to do this:

 

 

 

[RocketMan]

I need to thank the man who made those GIFs. Priceless.

[thenit]

@JG 

 

I agree, but memphis D is superior to ours, but on the other side we are better on the offensive end.

[thejohnnygold]

@JG 

 

I agree, but memphis D is superior to ours, but on the other side we are better on the offensive end.

 

Not so fast.  This has been the perception about the Grizzlies for years, but let's look at the numbers.

 

Rockets vs. Grizzlies

 

opp. fg%

 

.443 vs. .442

 

opp 3fg%

 

.322 vs. .351

 

They have a slight edge in opp. rebounding, but the difference is basically 1.5 extra offensive rebounds the Rox give up per game.  We rebound better on our end than they do--both off. and def.  We get one extra steal per game over them which somewhat negates that.  We also get nearly one extra block per game.

 

Memphis has built a reputation of rugged, blue-collar, team defense.  The Rockets have just begun to build that identity, but don't think that we aren't a very, very good defensive team.  We have height, length, versatility, and instincts on defense.  We have 5 legitimate ball hawks we can put on the floor together.

 

Golden State will give us a lot of looks, but what happens when the Rockets start taking away the things they like?  Over 7 games, especially after getting a head start on the blue print from Memphis, I think we can make life very difficult for them.

 

Also, get ready for some Josh Smith post ups.  McHale has kept that in his back pocket for the most part, but GS's interior defense is small with Green and weak with Lee.

 

Look, we know what they are going to do.  Shoot, shoot, and shoot some more.  They can't live on Livingston post ups, Bogut post ups, and Speights is hurt.  Barbosa likes to blow by people on the right.  Whoever guards him has to contain that.  If we take away things piece by piece I think we can slow them down.

 

Against us, what are they going to do?  Shut down Harden (as best they can), but we can always attack inside out and flip that script on them.  They, on the other hand really can't do that.  I think the world is going to be surprised once the Rockets get a feel for what GS is doing and start taking their chess pieces away one by one until all they have left is a queen and some pawns--then we'll see what they can do.  We did it to the Clips, and we'll do it to them.

 

We'll have to limit their second chance points.  Jones and Smith have to beast on the boards the way Howard has.  We're going to force lots of misses, but if we give them 2nd and 3rd chances we're toast.

 

Believe it friends....Believe...

[NorEastern]

Memphis attempted to slow the Warriors down. We all see how it played out. The Rockets are missing two of their five best defensive players in Bev and D-Mo. The Warriors are the best defensive team in the NBA. This series is certainly not going to be won on the defensive front. If the Rockets cannot bury their threes this series is already lost.

[cointurtlemoose]

Agreed Johnny with the notion of not being too worried about Curry scoring. We can let him get his points, but IMO, it's more important to prevent his catalyzing effect on the rest of his team. That's pretty much what we did with Paul the second half of the Clippers series - remember all those midrange jumpers he hit? (It also didn't hurt that Barnes and Reddick went cold...) The Warriors become their perfect-machine-of-basketball-selves when everyone is getting involved, when they're getting out on the break, and when the defense is in panic mode. Not saying we shouldn't fly around on D to close out on shooters... But just saying I liked the "damage control" strategy with Paul, and there's a chance it could work with Curry. Although Thompson threatens that in a way that no Clipper wing did...

 

Dwight's presence will be massive I think. GS likes to go small, and they're almost unguardable when doing so. But when they go small, Dwight can make them pay on the offensive glass. Heck even Jones and Smith could make a small-GS-lineup pay on the glass.

 

All that said, I kind of agree with NorEastern in that our chances don't look good. GS is a historically good team, and they're even deeper than us at the moment. But then again I like being the underdog, and I think the team does too.

Edited by cointurtlemoose, 19 May 2015 - 11:42 PM.

[majik19]

Defensively, I think the key to this series will be how we defend pick and rolls. Does the big show hard on Curry? Does Terry/Prig/Ariza/Brewer try to slide under them? 

 

I think if Bogut is setting the pick, show hard. I'm not scared of him at all.

If Green is setting the pick, it's trickier. I think let him go down the lane if he wants, but try to get at him if he goes to the 3.

 

Honestly, I would jump out hard on the 3 and see if we can make them either drive into Dwight or settle for the midrange jumper. It'll require some crisp rotations, but if they can beat us off the dribble from mid range, I'll take it. 

 

Offensively, I'd like to see more 4-5 pick and roll with Smith and Howard. Pull Bogut away from the hoop a bit and see if he can recover when Howard rumbles down the lane. I'm willing to be he can't. 

[rockets best fan]

JG I agree finding positive articles about the Rockets is like trying to find virgins in a brothel. I also agree while most give us no chance to win this series it won't be the landslide everyone seems to expect. GSW have not seen us at full strength this year. we are a different team now than the one they faced 

[NorEastern]

Man I was feeling some really good vibes from Johnny's post, and then had them straight ruined by your post lol. Thanks JG for the well thought out, and optimistic post. Regardless of the outcome of this series, I am extremely proud of what the organization has accomplished this season. Now let's keep it rolling, and give GS a series they won't forget!

Hit the three and defend balls out or die quickly. That is the choice facing the Rockets. There is no middle ground.

[txtdo1411]

Hit the three and defend balls out or die quickly. That is the choice facing the Rockets. There is no middle ground.

 

I completely disagree, well at least about the 3. Our defense needs to be better, but I don't think we have to shoot/make a crazy amount of 3s to beat these guys. They're a better team, yes, but they aren't so much better that we have to rely on jacking up 3s. I honestly think the Rockets feel the same way. We attempted 22 3s last night, and only shot 36% on them. We still lost by 4, and that was without Dwight. It would be great if we took 35 3s and made 45% of them, but I just don't see that happening. We are going to try to beat them the same way we have been beating teams all year. Attack the paint, get to the free throw line, and make 3s. The defense has to get better regardless. Too many defensive breakdowns for easy lay-ups in the 4th.

[Alituro]

You are all wrong. If this series is going to be won by the Rockets it's going to have to come from a COMPLETE dominance in the painted area. The back courts of both teams are going to get theirs, and each's defensive efforts are going to have the same effect either way back there. If you look at last games box score there was not a single stat (simple stat) that we weren't within 4 or 5 units of them, i.e., rebounds, assists, ORBs, Pts in Paint, TO's and FB Pts...

 

There is only one area we can divine any sort of advantage over the GSW squad consistently. And that is with our big fellas, Dwight almost solely, (sorry buddy, no pressure). It's going to come down to the team that can glean the most possessions. The easiest way to glean extra possessions is through rebounding. If we can edge Pts ITP by 10+ and rebounding the same, that is all we will need to overtake their squad. The nice thing is we have the postseason's most prolific rebounder on our squad as well as a couple athletic long 4's to help.

[majik19]

The nice thing is we have the postseason's most prolific rebounder on our squad as well as a couple athletic long 4's to help.

<crosses fingers>

[Alituro]

BTW, the "You are all wrong" comment was intended in jest. Because, WTF do I know?

Edited by Alituro, 21 May 2015 - 03:04 PM.