36 replies to this topic

[Red94]

New post: Wait...Dragic can be had for a draft pick?
By: Rahat Huq

 

Hearing Suns want a first-rounder for Goran Dragic and, rest assured, they'll get it. Rockets got to be tempted.

 

— Gery Woelfel (@GeryWoelfel) February 12, 2015

 

There it is.  For months now, there's been speculation surrounding this sort of thing, but no concrete report until now.  I'm shocked....but I'm not?  I had given up hope completely some weeks ago that Phoenix would part with its star point guard, but after their recent slide, it looks like maybe they're seeing the writing on the wall.  If they think they're going to miss the playoffs, and might lose Dragic anyway, it's better to deal him now.  The logic makes sense but damn, I didn't think it would come to this.  If I were Phoenix, I'd be looking to deal either Eric Bledsoe or Isaiah Thomas, either of whom could fetch more than Dragic on the market, for the sole fact that those two players are locked into long-term deals.  Then I'd ante up for Dragic in the summer.  Why sell low on Goran in such a terrible market?  But hell, why am I rationalizing this?  If they're really thinking of dealing him, I'm in.

 

To those who were asking me, this is of course as close to a no-brainer as it gets.  While it's true that you may not want to go "all in" this year, given Dwight Howard's health, if you're not willing to go "all in" in the year that you have the MVP, when the hell will you?  Moreover, Houston won't be able to create the type of cap space it would require to acquire a player of this caliber in the summer in free agency without gutting its team.  And until they get that "third guy", they remain in that holding pattern of needing to value flexibility.  For once, they have enviable depth.  If they can lock up that third guy, they can start going over the cap to keep other pieces around instead of letting guys walk.

 

What would it take?  The Pelicans pick and I'd bet one of either Terrence Jones or Big Papa.  If they can keep Jones, you're looking at a rotation of James "the MVP" Harden, Goran Dragic, and Pat Beverley in the backcourt, Trevor Ariza and Corey Brewer on the wings, and Dwight Howard, Donatas Motiejunas, Josh Smith, and Terrence Jones up front.  Oh my god, my mouth is watering.  Please God let this happen.  For all of the heartache I experienced this summer when we didn't get Bosh, please God let this happen.  While there would certainly be questions over whether Dragic and Harden could share the ball together, it would not be the awkward fit the Beard and Rajon Rondo would have been had the latter been acquired by Morey, given that Dragic can actually shoot.  And besides that, we're at a point where we can't worry about that.  This team desperately needs a second ball-handler.  But you don't need me to sell you on Dragic, so enough on that.

 

The question is whether this can happen.  Who else out there even wants a point guard?  And a rental at that.  The only other team that was looking for a point guard was Dallas and they just got Rondo.  (Do you get now why Morey didn't push his chips forward for Rondo?  This is for all the Mavs fans that swamped my timeline gloating about Cuban getting over on Morey.  Wait, I shouldn't gloat yet, this hasn't happened.)  Other than that, there's no one out there willing to part with real assets for Dragic.  So essentially, I'd think this just simply comes down to whether Phoenix wants to deal.  If they do, as the report indicates, I don't see any other destination but Houston.

 

[thenit]

I never thought we could get Dragic until after the season ended. 1 first rounder and jones or papa is a done deal, no brainer. I would even add another first round or 2nd round pick. I just think we are that good that those picks will end up in the high 20s and unlikely to ever get a player of dragic caliber in his prime.

[timetodienow1234567]

I understand we don't want to be as devoid of assets as LAC, but if all it cost to get Dragic was 2 firsts or a first and Jones, then it's a good deal for us if we think Dragic would re-sign.

[clydesmoustache]

Do we still have a first round pick as well as the pelicans pick next year? Or was that the pick we gave to LA? I think I would rather trade another pick than add jones to a trade. Even for Morey a draft pick is a risk and even if Jones doesn't develop at all he is still pretty damn good.

[Losthief]

we gave ours away im pretty sure. We also don't have any 2nds anymore this year.

[Steven]

we gave ours away im pretty sure. We also don't have any 2nds anymore this year.

We have the NY Knicks 2nd round pick which will be 31-35. And we have the worse of the T-Wolves or Nuggets 2nd round pick.

[Losthief]

oh thats right...i forgot about the ny pick completely. thats almost gonna be a late 1st rounder (lows 30s) its looking like

Edited by Losthief, 13 February 2015 - 11:06 AM.

[Alituro]

This could be good. Neither Harden or Dragic are particularly selfish players, so I think they would mesh good together. Harden would surely be relieved to share some of the burden on offense. Dragic is competent on D too, so there would be huge gains. This is potentially the backcourt duo that could give GSW fits, and make us on par or better than the rest of the class of the league.

 

I wonder why Dragic is the fall guy on that team. It is without a doubt an odd situation, but he is arguably the best of the 3 contenders. Do you think it has anything to do with the locker room chemistry between the 3 that leaves Dragic as the odd man out?

 

I think it could be done with picks and Papa, Jones doesn't really offer them much that the Morris twins don't except a little length. You may have to throw in a Capela (LOL... A Capella) or Shved which may be why Johnson and Clint were called up.

[Mario Peña]

For the players that could be used to round out the deal I wonder about Nick Johnson. The Suns front office may be familiar with Johnson from his Arizona years and may happily stash him in Bakersfield so he could develop.

[Alituro]

For the players that could be used to round out the deal I wonder about Nick Johnson. The Suns front office may be familiar with Johnson from his Arizona years and may happily stash him in Bakersfield so he could develop.

 

Interesting, but I wonder if they would because it doesn't really solve their glut of guards problem, with Bledsoe and Thomas being so young. I guess a developed Johnson could be useful off the bench as backup. I could see them doing this if they are bowing out of the race. But, if they're trying to win now, I would guess Papa would be able to help them this season and Capela isn't that far behind their young bigs to possibly be effective on a lesser team. Those two and the Knicks pick may give them some flexibility in the offseason too and they could work on the Morey style of rebuilding while remaining competitive. I can't see Johnson being positively useful for another couple seasons. If they're going to tank, they've already won to many games already to get down near the bottom of the league to make it worth it. Next season would be the one for them to tank if they don't acquire anything special this summer. Like we were a few seasons ago, they're on the brink of having a really good team with a couple roster tweaks and a creative GM.

[thenit]

The main reason is that Thomas and Bledsoe probably have a higher ceiling and are younger. They also don't need Nick, they have Ennis in the D league as the 4th guard right now and they really like the kid. As a Canadian I follow the kid and he is better than Nick atm. He has better handles, vision and shot. Nick is more athletic but he has trouble bringing the ball up the court as a PG. I think its because Dragic can walk and he is older so they are trying to do a rebuild of a team that can compete in a few years, and Dragic at that point might be pass his prime or on the decline. They have a young team with potential and if they all somehow peak at the right moment in 3 years they will be real good.

[Losthief]

also...they overpaid thomas (and possibly bledsoe due to health) meaning the desire/market for those two is less. Supposedly they've been trying to move thomas since earlier in the year but no one bit.

[Cooper]

I think Thomas's deal is fair he's one dimensional but guys like Alec burks are making almost ten.

[Losthief]

8 mil for an undersized point guard in a league this stack with specimens at that position...just feels like he's not worth that much to me. But i hear you on alec burks.

[Red94]

New post: Is Goran Dragic worth the max?
By: Rahat Huq

I've had a few tweets directed towards me, and seen some others retweeted by people I follow, underscoring the disparity in Goran Dragic's career averages.  Essentially, he played out of his mind last season, and has regressed to his career median again this year.  I'm not exactly sure what's being insinuated here.  This isn't exactly some novel discovery here.  I thought it was pretty common knowledge that he had a career year last season and has tailed off in 2015 in having to play off the ball alongside two other point guards.  What's everyone's point?

 

The question of value is a recurrent theme in sports, especially in the NBA where an artificial cap pervades.  In a vacuum, Dragic isn't worth the contract it will likely take this summer to keep him in Houston, if the Rockets are able to swing a trade.  In a vacuum, maybe Chris Bosh wasn't worth it either.  Very few players are absolutely worth their max figures, in vacuo of external considerations.  James Harden fits that bill; Dwight, even despite his injury problems, probably still is as well, for what he brings defensively alone.

 

Dragic means more to Houston, in theory, because he would represent what they would believe to be their missing piece.  They would be willing to pay more than he is actually worth because they would believe he would complete them.  Moreover, compounding this point are the time constraints and financial realities of the salary cap.  Houston can't wait around for someone who might truly be worth the max to become available, because they are operating on Dwight Howard's diminishing timeline.  Further, and even more importantly, the longer the Rockets wait, the longer they remain in the holding pattern they've been in for years whereby they have had to sacrifice continuity for the sake of flexibility.  For instance, let's say there's only ten other guys in the league who you feel are truly worth a max contract.  If you think you're not going to move until one of those guys becomes available, you can't resign any of your role players in the interim, the way the Rockets had to let Chandler Parsons walk this summer.  If Houston gets Dragic, it can work to keep Corey Brewer and Josh Smith as well.

 

So the question isn't whether Goran Dragic is worth the max.  In a vacuum, he's not.  The question is whether he can be the final piece of a championship core that already includes James Harden and Dwight Howard.  Resoundingly, I think that answer is yes, especially when weighing the odds and difficulty of acquiring anyone else.

[thejohnnygold]

^Well said.

[Chichos]

Dragic is getting a lot of attention right now but if you could have Dragic or Reggie Jackson for approximately the same cost which would you prefer.  Both guys are supposedly unhappy in their roles and set to ink new deals next year.  If I had a shot at both I am going with Reggie since he is younger.   

[Cooper]

Problem is Jackson can't shoot. Plus way more worried about Howards age than Dragic.

[majik19]

Another thing to remember - a max contract this offseason may be a great value by 2016. As Zach Lowe has repeatedly pointed out, the cap could soar as high as 90 million in the coming years, which also means the "max contract" will grow substantially as well, while players who are already signed will have the same contract. Some may remember this was part of the reason Lebron signed a year-to-year contract; he knows the max contract is about to go up. 

 

I'm not exactly sure Dragic is our "missing piece," but I think it is worth the risk to find out. At worst, for the reasons stated above, Dragic may be considered a bargain and become a tradeable piece for exactly what we do need. 

[Jatman20]

Dragic is the only player in the league ( this year) topping 16 pts, 3 Rbs, 4 Ast, 1.0 Stl and shooting 50% from the field. He is shooting 37.5% on catch-n-shoot 3's (about 42% last year) which compliments Harden.

According to 82games.com Dragic has logged in as a...
/////////PG 47% [mins] +60 [Net Pts] 104.3 [Off] 101.7 [Def] SG 17% [Mins] +39 [Net Pts] 114.5 [Off] 109.8 [Def]
// Beverley //PG 47% [Mins] +67 [Net Pts] 103 [Off] 99.9 [Def] SG 0% [Mins] -7 [Net Pts] 93.9 [Off] 112.1 [Def]

Different teams; but Bev is not doing much at SG this year. UFA this summer: Salaries this season: Rondo ($13 mil), Mo Williams ($3.8 mil), CJ Watson ($2.1 mil),
RFA this summer: Brandon Knight ($4.8 mil R), Reggie Jackson ($3.2 mil R), Cory Joseph (3.0 mil R), Bev ($1.2 mil R) 2nd team all defense (13-14) and Skills Challenge champion (14-15)......All will be offered crazy money compared to what they are worth!! No one else worth mentioning. Canaan and Nick Johnson off the bench next year.....if not traded this year.

Edited by Jatman20, 17 February 2015 - 02:07 AM.