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@  cointurtlemoose : (05 February 2015 - 04:09 AM) Catharsis!
@  Mario Peña : (03 February 2015 - 10:08 PM) Nice one jorgeaam
@  jorgeaam : (03 February 2015 - 09:56 PM) Time to check all of my past posts
@  thejohnnygold : (03 February 2015 - 09:35 PM) Been doing this for a while...try to use a different, somewhat ridiculous one each time.
@  Losthief : (03 February 2015 - 09:24 PM) im not upset at the change...i get that and noted...i was just curious about the choice of term to replace it with thats all.
@  Mario Peña : (03 February 2015 - 05:25 PM) Good job dad!
@  thejohnnygold : (03 February 2015 - 05:23 PM) That would be me. If you cuss in your posts I will change them to something more....appropriate :)
@  Mario Peña : (03 February 2015 - 03:48 AM) Watt?
@  Losthief : (03 February 2015 - 02:25 AM) also...gee-golly willikers??? is that the auto-correct or is some moderator got some early 1900s in him/her.
@  Mario Peña : (02 February 2015 - 01:59 AM) Agreed, those are some horrible games. Were they on ABC or ESPN?
@  SadLakerFan : (01 February 2015 - 05:19 PM) who would have thought: Heat-Celtics and Lakers-Knicks and no one cares.
@  Cooper : (01 February 2015 - 06:18 AM) can't be giving up 28 to Kcp and augstin even if its the second game of the same day.
@  Losthief : (01 February 2015 - 06:18 AM) yeah my heart about fell out of my chest when he was just layin there in the 2nd...i was like oh gee-golly willikers...
@  Mario Peña : (01 February 2015 - 06:14 AM) I am glad Harden played through whatever happened and played like a man on a mission.
@  Losthief : (01 February 2015 - 03:16 AM) good news: Harden came back after scare looking great. Which for me is more impt than beating a east team on the road on the 2nd half of a back to back.
@  Losthief : (01 February 2015 - 03:15 AM) bad news: We came up short on the rally
@  rocketrick : (31 January 2015 - 07:16 PM) MM complaining about the home crowds at Rockets game apparently from his vantage point watching the games on TV is a joke. I'm a season ticket holder, so yes, I take MM's statements as an affront.
@  rocketrick : (31 January 2015 - 07:14 PM) MM claiming Josh Smith has had ONE good night on the offensive end is far from the truth. How about the Memphis game, the Chicago game, the OKC game, the Cleveland game amongst others. He double-doubled last night in Boston.
@  rocketrick : (31 January 2015 - 07:12 PM) Cousins actually did make the All-Star game, is Kobe's replacement.
@  cointurtlemoose : (31 January 2015 - 02:58 AM) Well, the first half of the game looked really good...

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Missing the point


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#1 thejohnnygold

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Posted 02 February 2015 - 07:59 PM

Patrick Beverley just can't get any respect.  In this Bleacher Report article (which is actually pretty well written and conceived), the author makes a compelling case for the Rockets to make a move to upgrade the PG position.

 

My beef is the statistical validation the author uses to suggest Beverley is a below average (and way over-rated) defender.  Once again, people focus on the percentages and ignore the volume.  Much like the "Dwight Effect" which directs people's attention to how many shots don't even get taken because of him (all of which carry a 0.0 fg%--an excellent score indeed!).

 

In the author's statistical data, Beverley allows opposing PG's to shoot 46.9% against him (+2.7% better than their overall average).  This is true, but it casually glosses right over the number of attempts.  Beverley allows 4.0 makes in 8.6 attempts per game.  Now, stop and think about that.  He primarily defends each team's starting PG and most teams' starting PG is a stud offensive player.  Check out how many shots NBA point guards take per game: LINK.

 

For comparison, Aaron Brooks takes 8.8 shots/game.  Russell Westbrook tops the list with 20 shots/game.

 

Yet, Beverley is constantly derided for his opp fg%.  Well, if we factored in the 0.0% on the extra shots they normally would have taken I think that number would plummet.  (I know that's not how it works, but it is certainly something people should take into account when measuring his overall effect on the game).

 

I know there is overlap and not all of those shots belong to his "natural counterpart".

 

For comparison, here are some other players' numbers:

 

Beverley: 8.6 opp fga (+2.7 fg% above average)  31 mpg

 

Irving: 11.2 opp fga  (+1.2 fg% above average)  38 mpg

 

Lillard: 10.6 opp fga (+.4 fg%)  36 mpg

 

Rondo: 8.1 (+.9%)  31mpg

 

Wall: 10.0 (-1.6%)  36 mpg

 

Westbrook: 7.3 (+.5%)  32 mpg

 

Conley: 10.5 (+1.8%)  32 mpg

 

Curry: 10.3 (-3.8%)  33 mpg

 

Jennings: 7.5 (-.2%)  29 mpg

 

Lowry: 10.8 (-.8%)  35 mpg

 

Paul: 9.1 (-.3%)  34 mpg

 

Knight: 9.1 (-.9%)  32 mpg

 

(all data from NBA.com and ESPN.com)

 

I added the mpg to give it a bit more context and relativity.  It seems I have proven myself wrong :huh: .  Beverley compares favorably, but he doesn't separate himself from other defenders all that much when you account for minutes played.  Russell Westbrook is the clear winner here with Wall a close second.

 

Beverley does outshine Conley and Curry, but once you factor in offensive contributions that diminishes the achievement.

 

I still love Bev's heart and hustle.  His rebounding and shot blocking are excellent.  I also think he has a knack for timely late-game plays that can swing the tide for us.  Still, the numbers don't lie.  He's a solid defender, but not so much that we can ignore the offensive issues.

 

On the positive side, he ranks 9th among PG's in 3fg% while ranking 7th in total 3 attempts.  He is 5th in reb/48 among PG's.  He's solid in other areas too.  I know they are trying to work on his play making abilities and figuring out ways to maximize his skills within the offense, but at the end of the day he is not anywhere near the same league as most of his peers.

 

So much for my "Bev Effect".  Bev is good, but he's not as good as I had thought.  Brandon Knight looked pretty solid though.... :rolleyes:


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#2 Mario Peña

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Posted 03 February 2015 - 03:45 AM

Going back to discussions we had last year I still believe Beverly is that Michael Cooper kind of guy that comes off the bench to defend opposing teams best offensive players on the wing or at the point of attack. I believe just getting that advantage as a guy with fresh legs off the bench let's him disrupt whatever back court groove opposing teams might be getting into midway through that first quarter. Also with Beverly coming off the bench that preserves him as a game disruptor/defensive stopper type for the entire season since his style of play is so intensive. In addition to providing outside shooting from the bench he could also fill in as a starter for stretches when the starters have injuries that occur in the course of any season. This team needs a point guard that can light it up.


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Not all isolation plays are equal.





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