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@  RocketMan : (26 June 2015 - 05:46 PM) I'll take them. No complaints. Dekker can score. Other guy will catch lobs all day.
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 03:23 AM) So Dekker and Harrell were ranked 16 & 17 in Chad Ford's rankings, solid draft
@  txtdo1411 : (26 June 2015 - 03:11 AM) Nevermind. Should have known we were getting another 6-8 PF. I do like his tenacity. Versatility is definitely the theme here.
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 03:08 AM) Called it
@  txtdo1411 : (26 June 2015 - 03:02 AM) Jo young reminds me of an Isaiah Canaan type of player with a tad bit more height. Would it be a reach at 32?
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 02:55 AM) Ok, I'll stop calling out players
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 02:52 AM) Montrezl Harrell and Kevon Looney (who many projected to be a lottery pick) still on the board, I'd say Rockets get one of them if available, specially Looney
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 02:45 AM) Nevermind about RJ :(
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 02:43 AM) They got Larry Nance Jr. he was projected as a late 2nd rounder
@  majik19 : (26 June 2015 - 02:42 AM) let's see who the Lakers get with the Jeremy Lin pick
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 02:41 AM) RJ Hunter*
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 02:41 AM) Some interesting players left, specially Rk
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 02:38 AM) I'm still waiting for Morey to make a trade that will blow our minds
@  majik19 : (26 June 2015 - 02:29 AM) well i guess PG wasn't as big a need as we thought. Big sign that Beverly is going to be resigned?
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 02:24 AM) Oh, he got traded to Minnessota
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 02:13 AM) But I must say Tyus looks like the kind of players the Spurs will grab
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 02:03 AM) Tyus might still be at 32
@  Cooper : (26 June 2015 - 01:51 AM) instantly wrong
@  Cooper : (26 June 2015 - 01:48 AM) Wright might still be there at 32
@  jorgeaam : (26 June 2015 - 01:46 AM) Grant is going to the Knicks for Tim Hardaway, so maybe Tyus

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On Patrick Beverley, the Pelicans pick, 60 wins


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#1 Red94

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    Posted 09 December 2014 - 01:52 PM

    New post: On Patrick Beverley, the Pelicans pick, 60 wins
    By: Rahat Huq

    • Patrick Beverley is now shooting 49% from deep on the year, after another stellar performance in his return to action Saturday night.  That figure certainly won't hold, but I'm curious to see how far his accuracy regresses.  Recall that since last summer, after a year in which Beverley shot 36% on 3's, I penciled in Beverley's magic number as 39%, saying if the point guard could just simply raise his percentage by that small margin, he'd be the ideal fit at the position next to James Harden, long term.  While many disagree, I think I still stand by that point.  Beverley knows his role, takes few risks and manages the game, is of course one of the best defenders in the league, and is perhaps the emotional leader of this team.  If he's spreading the floor, what more could you ask for from that position?  Wouldn't it be better to have someone who is happy expending 100% of his energy on defense rather than someone who possibly might not be happy with his number of touches?
    • It's an important question going forward for the team with Beverley's impending free agency this summer.  And don't look now, but New Orleans is now 9-10, having fallen to last place in the southwest division.  Many, including myself, feared the Pelicans might make the playoffs this season after witnessing the frightening dominance of Anthony Davis in the season's first week.  Those concerns are proving to have been premature as not only is New Orleans behind the current top 8 teams, but they are also playing catch up to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Ultimately, that means the Rockets are pretty good odds to have a late lottery pick sent their way this summer.  And that matter ties in with the issue of Beverley.
    • What do you do with the pick?  Watching this team navigate the waters of the young season, its still abundantly clear that their most pressing need is frontcourt help.  But who is even available?  Paul Millsap was the hope all along, but with Atlanta off to a 14-6 start, with the second best record in the east, such an acquisition would seem to be a longshot at very best.  Hawks ownership has historically been content with mediocrity, so no amount of mental gymnastics as to what the Hawks should do won't change reality.  As long as that team is in playoff contention, it is difficult to see them dealing off key pieces.  And if I could even think of a desirable backup big, other than Brandon Bass, that guy probably wouldn't be worth a lottery pick.
    • Point guard was the other need heading into the year, with the big name being Goran Dragic, who is back to putting up MVP numbers with Isaiah Thomas out of the lineup.  Despite Phoenix's relative success on the year, unlike Atlanta, that management group has operated much more rationally, so a trade of a key part isn't out of the question.  But does a Dragic acquisition really make sense?  Perhaps I'm too clouded by Houston's latest run, but say the package ends up being Terrence Jones and the pick (and maybe Canaan), has Houston really improved itself long term and made the maximum use of its assets?  To be sure, Dragic is absolutely terrific.  But part of why Houston is off to one of its best starts in franchise history is because there is a clear pecking order with every player not only buying in, but embracing his role.  Like Harden, Dragic needs the ball in his hands; as I said earlier, Beverley is more than happy expending every ounce of his energy merely being a pest to the other team.
    • And what do we make of continuity?  We've seen the Warriors and Grizzlies take major leaps, bringing back the same core they've run for years.  Replacing Beverley with a star offsets the stability this team has built.  But again, beyond replacing a major piece, Beverley, in many ways, is the heart and soul of this Rockets team.  And now with their newfound emphasis on defense, he is the exaggerated personification of their core identity.  In my mind, I want the image of the Houston Rockets to be Patrick Beverley flying around the perimeter, with Trevor Ariza on the other wing, and Dwight Howard waiting inside to clean up everything.  That to me is beautiful basketball.
    • But again, what to do with the pick?  You can't just hold onto it, I don't think.  Despite the early contributions of Nick Johnson and Isaiah Canaan, you can't bring on another rookie next season.  You need to be all in now, at least in as far as it doesn't cripple your future.
    • Perhaps I'm just on an emotional high after the recent string of victories, and getting Dragic makes the most sense.  For all Beverley brings to the table, having another attack dog like Dragic in a playoff series would make worlds of difference.
    • I tweeted the other night that at 16-4, Houston is on pace to win 65 games, a mark that would shatter their franchise best 58-24 record from the 1993-1994 season.  They won't win 65, but can they crack 60, I asked.  Most of you responded that they wouldn't, predicting a mark in the mid 50's.  I personally am not sure where I stand.  On the one hand, as many of you stated, as thin as Houston is, they'll wear out at some point and hit a rough patch.  On the other hand, they'll be that much stronger once everyone else comes back.  They also are winning with the most replicable brand of ball: they're not just getting hot from the field; they're shutting teams out defensively.  That bodes well for the long haul.

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    #2 Sir Thursday

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    Posted 09 December 2014 - 03:12 PM

    My schedule analysis spits out 56 wins. Seems like an achievable win total to me.

     

    ST


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    #3 NorEastern

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      Posted 09 December 2014 - 03:19 PM

      I agree that Bev is the best possible point guard to play beside Harden. I believe management has made it clear that no one is taking the ball out of Harden's hands. The Rockets attempted from the start to convert Lin to a spot up shooter. It did not go well. Is there any reason to expect that Dragic could make that transformation?

       

      What is more important in the NBA - offense or defense? The correct answer is both. Surrounding Harden with two incredible defenders is a wise move. Harden can only expend so much energy each game. While Dragic may be a plus defender, he is nowhere near in Bev's league.

       

      What to do with the NOP pick? Hold on to it until the trade deadline and attempt to pick up an extremely discounted player. It could be packaged with second round picks and young assets.

       

      If I was Morey I would be leaning back, with my feet on the desk contemplating my own brilliance. The Rockets are sporting a rash of injuries to key players and they still have the second best record in the NBA.


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      #4 marbony81110

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      Posted 09 December 2014 - 03:24 PM

      I do not think the Rockets need an upgrade at PG. Dragic is a great player, but like you said Beverly is a great fit for this team. I do think the Rockets need to use the pick to get front court help. Milsap would be great but highly unlikely. I'm sure Morey can work some magic to bring in a 4 that fits with this team's identity. As far as the win total I do think 60 wins is achievable as long as they play this defense all year. A fully healthy Rockets team playing this good of defense is a problem for any team. There is a possibility that obstacles may prevent such a win total, but again this defense is crazy good. If they played like this last year they would have played deep into the playoffs. Whatever the case I am excited about where this team is headed.
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      #5 thejohnnygold

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      Posted 09 December 2014 - 04:25 PM

      Nice post, Rahat.  After vacillating back and forth between no trades and the need for a PG upgrade I have settled in nicely at the no-trade decision.  The reason is not because of Beverley's individual improvement (which has been nice); rather, I think the team as a whole has developed a better feel, system, synergy, whatever you want to call it on offense that was sorely missing the last couple of seasons (which is crazy given our offensive output).

       

      To be more specific, our offense was very one-dimensional with Harden.  Yes, Howard did his thing, but it didn't really blossom until the playoffs as a consistently viable threat and his lack of post passing is impossible to ignore (believe me, I've tried).  Thus, I pined for a player like Rondo who can command an offense the way few can bending defenses and making pinpoint passes.  Pined...but not anymore.  That was before and now it's all changed.

       

      Ignoring the defensive renaissance we are enjoying, it is our offense (which does not score well amongst our peers) that has made the difference.  Harden has hit another level, but it is the additions of Terry, Papanikoloau, Ariza, Black, and the emergence of D-Mo and, to a lesser degree, Canaan that have made it unnecessary to look for a PG upgrade.

       

      Each brings something different to the table, but the combined effect is an offense that can, and does, function without Harden nor Howard.  (and they still play some tough defense).  I think one of the more under-rated aspects is Terry's mid-range game.  I think he can get that 15-18 footer off anytime he wants and doesn't it feel like he is shooting paper wads into giant trash bins when he does it?  Like it's nothing.  It's shots like those (one of which he made in the Phoenix win that ended a 7 minute drought) that will help us keep leads and shut down teams down the stretches of games.

       

      Much has been said about most of the others, but Black's offensive rebounding is impressive (as a team we rank 6th in the league) at 18.3% ORR and a per36 of 5.8 Off. Reb's per game.  That is 6 extra possessions generated by his hustle on the boards.  Huge.  I'd say that effectively translates to +6 points for us (either 2 3's (shooting 33%) or 3 2's (shooting 50%)).  His +/- is a tidy +5.2.

       

      Interestingly enough, on a per36 basis Joey Dorsey is our 2nd best off. rebounder (Capela doesn't count yet).  When Dwight and TJ get back (who are no slouches on the off. glass) I think we will rise up the overall rankings and should wind up one of the top 3 teams in the league for this category.  Love it!

       

      As for the NO pick.  I agree that no action is necessary.  We have a roster slot coming up because I can't see Garcia getting re-signed.  He is not giving us much these days.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Morey keep it and if no one is on the board he likes (unlikely) he can trade it then.  These rookie scale deals are the second most valuable NBA commodity after Max-Level Stars.

       

      This team is already very good and as constructed will come back even better next season.  Jones, Motie, Canaan, Johnson, Daniels (maybe), and Black are all improving players and already contributing (except Daniels  :( ).  Bringing in a vet isn't necessary and is just going to get in the way of how awesome our young guys are going to be.

       

      I know much will be made of this year's playoffs.  I hope we do well and at least make the WCF's because seeing how everyone reacted to last year's demise I can't imagine what would happen if we went out in the first round again.  Yet, go look at the standings.  There are 7 teams with legitimate dreams of going to the Finals this year (I don't count Phoenix).  3 of them are going home in the first round.  2 more in the next.  1 more after that.  6 teams are going home disappointed this season.  Those are not good odds.  That doesn't mean I'm not rooting for us to get to the Finals and destroy whatever East team shows up.  I just like to keep perspective on things.


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      #6 cointurtlemoose

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        Posted 09 December 2014 - 05:15 PM

        Great points made so far. I think any player acquisition that really moves the needle for us would be at the expense of the pick + Beverley + other rotation guy(s). And at that point, 'moving the needle' seems to becomes counter-productive. I just don't see merely Beverley and the pick getting us all that much in a return offer.

         

        Plus, I am just biased because I love Beverley. If he left, I'd probably relocate my fandom to wherever he went. Only half-joking. No, maybe 40% joking.

         

        All of this changes of course as the season progresses, guys grow and regress. I'm interested to see how Beverley continues to grow offensively too, in addition to just his shooting. He grew significantly last year in his off-ball movement.


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        #7 Rahat Huq

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          Posted 09 December 2014 - 06:11 PM

          One matter of relevance is Beverley's injuries. At what point should be he considered "injury prone."?
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          #8 YaoMan

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            Posted 09 December 2014 - 06:32 PM

            I keep Bev if he stays healthy - he compliments Harden well. Keep the pick - can use for trade chip or take the best available player. Doubt Garcia comes back. 55-58 wins is more than likely if the injuries don't continue to mount up


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            #9 redfaithful

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            Posted 09 December 2014 - 08:19 PM

            I'm thinking of a trade for an effective player with a good contract around 6M for additional year or two, using the NO pick, a couple of the four second rounders and the Lin trade exception. The other team will be a non-playoff team looking to shed salary and gain assets, top of the list probably includes Denver, Knicks and maybe Indiana.


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            #10 redfaithful

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            Posted 09 December 2014 - 08:33 PM

            Taking another look at the options it seems my scenario will have to be split into separate deals, more players of value to find in the 3-4M range than 6M.


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            #11 thejohnnygold

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            Posted 09 December 2014 - 08:40 PM

            I'm thinking of a trade for an effective player with a good contract around 6M for additional year or two, using the NO pick, a couple of the four second rounders and the Lin trade exception. The other team will be a non-playoff team looking to shed salary and gain assets, top of the list probably includes Denver, Knicks and maybe Indiana.

             

            Certainly a fine idea.  The one problem is our roster is full.  Somebody has got to be shipped out in order to make this trade work.

             

            I suppose some people are more inclined to do so than I am.  I don't think Terry or Garcia are out.  Terry has proven too valuable and Garcia seems to have the support of staff and management.

             

            Obviously Harden, Howard, and Ariza are hands off.

             

            Personally, I'm not trading Jones, Motie, Beverley, Papa, Black, Johnson, or Capela (after seeing his raw talent I think Houston has to give him time to develop).

             

            That leaves Canaan and Daniels.  Do we want to trade two guys who are young, with good upside, and fit our system to a T for whatever cast-off 1-2 year rental Indiana, Denver, or New York is willing to drop on us?

             

            The list of players include Hickson, Mozgov (who I seriously doubt is available), David West (the only PF I could discern us wanting from Indy), or Jason Smith(???).  Ugh.  I'm sorry.  I wouldn't trade Clutch for any of those guys at this point (outside of Mozgov--who isn't available).

             

            That's the thing, any trade that brings us a real difference maker is going to cost us a lot.  More than the Pellies pick and some 2nd rounders (Rockets fans value those far higher than most do)--no, it's going to cost one of TJ/D-Mo, one of Canaan/Bev/Daniels, and likely one of Black/Papanikoloau.  It will be like the Barkley trade (which I know many here still endorse--I didn't like it then and I still don't like it now) all over again.  That move lacked foresight and was a forced move to try and squeeze one more ring out of Hakeem rather than thinking about the franchise and it severely undervalued the contributions of 4 good players.

             

            I know the rule is you always trade 4 quarters for a $1 bill, but there are also exceptions to those rules and I'll be more than a little upset if Houston does it again.


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            #12 Johnny Rocket

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              Posted 09 December 2014 - 09:07 PM

              Let's say the Heat continue to implode and Bosh decides he wants out.  Maimi is forced into a fire sale, and Pat Riley proposes trading Bosh for D-MO, K-Pop, Terry, Capella, the Pelicans pick, the Rox 1st round pick in 2017, and the second rounders.  What do you do if you are Morey?  Keep in mind that Bosh is on a five-year max deal, so if begins to break down, his contract will really hurt any flexibility in coming years.  At the beginning of the year, I would have pulled the trigger with no hesitation. Now?  I'm not so sure.


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              #13 thejohnnygold

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              Posted 09 December 2014 - 09:20 PM

              Let's say the Heat continue to implode and Bosh decides he wants out.  Maimi is forced into a fire sale, and Pat Riley proposes trading Bosh for D-MO, K-Pop, Terry, Capella, the Pelicans pick, the Rox 1st round pick in 2017, and the second rounders.  What do you do if you are Morey?  Keep in mind that Bosh is on a five-year max deal, so if begins to break down, his contract will really hurt any flexibility in coming years.  At the beginning of the year, I would have pulled the trigger with no hesitation. Now?  I'm not so sure.

               

              NOPE!  Once again, there is a HUGE difference between signing a free agent and mortgaging your future for a hail mary.  Plus, Bosh doesn't care.  I wouldn't want him here anymore than he would want to be here--he said as much not too long ago.  I get that this is hypothetical, but Bosh made it pretty clear he wants to be in Miami no matter what.


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              #14 Sir Thursday

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              Posted 09 December 2014 - 10:48 PM

              One matter of relevance is Beverley's injuries. At what point should be he considered "injury prone."?

               

              He already is, surely? I know the national media thinks so - I'm sure I remember seeing at least two season previews in which people looked at the Rockets and said "well Beverley's not going to be healthy for the whole season". I don't know whether it will impact his trade value that much just because he hasn't had enormous layoffs all in one go, but it's certainly something other GMs will be bearing in mind.

               

              ST


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              #15 redfaithful

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              Posted 10 December 2014 - 12:03 AM

              @JG - you raise valid points, I'll change my idea to backup plan in case of season ending injury. Let's hope it never happens!


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              #16 thejohnnygold

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              Posted 10 December 2014 - 12:39 AM

              @JG - you raise valid points, I'll change my idea to backup plan in case of season ending injury. Let's hope it never happens!

               

              This is something I have been reluctant to let myself consider.  If Jones is done for the season do the Rockets move on from him?  I'm presuming that is who you are referring to as far as season-ending injuries go.

               

              That is a tough question--and hopefully one that doesn't need answering.  There isn't much on the scrap heap in regards to PF's.  I think I saw that Earl Clark is signing over in China.  Houston might qualify for the injury exemption allowing them to sign an extra player, but Kenyon Martin might be the best available and that's questionable given that we took a look at him in October and opted to not sign him.  Al Harrington?  What happened with him?

               

              It's crazy talk, but it might be better to move Dwight to PF for stretches.  We have some guys who can man the center position, and can go small at the 4 sometimes, but in a pinch I think that could work.  I know....that is not what we want.


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              #17 Losthief

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              Posted 10 December 2014 - 04:35 AM

              I still think we sign okafor mid-season as our big 'move'. Maybe trade for pf depth with the exemption and pick if tjones is really done for the year (dude couldn't even feel his leg or toes....not good). None of the pundits when they talk about okafor ever mention the fact Okafor was born and raised in Houston (went to Bellaire HS under John Lucas who has a good relationship with the rockets). If healthy I think he could be a game changer for us giving us that 48 min rim protection to go with our improved philosophy and perimeter D. Also he's not a net zero on offensive (he's not good....but he's not horrible) and he's a true center.


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              LoSTHieF

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              #18 clydesmoustache

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                Posted 10 December 2014 - 04:51 AM

                I still think we sign okafor mid-season as our big 'move'. Maybe trade for pf depth with the exemption and pick if tjones is really done for the year (dude couldn't even feel his leg or toes....not good). None of the pundits when they talk about okafor ever mention the fact Okafor was born and raised in Houston (went to Bellaire HS under John Lucas who has a good relationship with the rockets). If healthy I think he could be a game changer for us giving us that 48 min rim protection to go with our improved philosophy and perimeter D. Also he's not a net zero on offensive (he's not good....but he's not horrible) and he's a true center.


                Yes I keep forgetting about the okafor card! Having Ariza might help us get him as well as they have been through a lot together.
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                #19 Cooper

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                  Posted 10 December 2014 - 06:36 AM

                  This is something I have been reluctant to let myself consider.  If Jones is done for the season do the Rockets move on from him?  I'm presuming that is who you are referring to as far as season-ending injuries go.

                   

                  That is a tough question--and hopefully one that doesn't need answering.  There isn't much on the scrap heap in regards to PF's.  I think I saw that Earl Clark is signing over in China.  Houston might qualify for the injury exemption allowing them to sign an extra player, but Kenyon Martin might be the best available and that's questionable given that we took a look at him in October and opted to not sign him.  Al Harrington?  What happened with him?

                   

                  It's crazy talk, but it might be better to move Dwight to PF for stretches.  We have some guys who can man the center position, and can go small at the 4 sometimes, but in a pinch I think that could work.  I know....that is not what we want.

                  If jones can't go they would probably have to get a guy like Illy whos having a nice bounce back year and the bucks have plenty of pfs or Kg but thad take some cap gymnastics, we'd need a third big for the playoffs and Black/dorsey or any scrap heap signings would be a poor bet. 


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                  #20 Steven

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                    Posted 10 December 2014 - 09:07 AM

                    NOPE! Once again, there is a HUGE difference between signing a free agent and mortgaging your future for a hail mary. Plus, Bosh doesn't care. I wouldn't want him here anymore than he would want to be here--he said as much not too long ago. I get that this is hypothetical, but Bosh made it pretty clear he wants to be in Miami no matter what.


                    Wait, Bosh stayed in Miami for $42M extra guaranteed. That is roughly 50% more then the Rockets could offer. If Miami wouldn't have given Bosh the full max, he would be a Rocket, as would Parsons, and the Rockets would score 140 points a night while giving up 125.
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