It's back! A few games late, but still. As I've done in previous years, I'll separate out the Rockets' opponents into tiers and attempt to use this to estimate their win total for the season. Interesting things to note:
- I've added more nuance to the 'Favourite' category because I think there are two separate groups of teams in that bracket this year. Some of them are not pushovers but we should still beat the majority of the time, whereas others are more of a challenge but I would still favour the Rockets.
- I've put OKC down in the 'Underdog' section despite their injury woes - we only play them once before Durant and Westbrook come back.
As usual, I welcome any feedback about where you think opposing teams should go within the tiering system. I'll update this periodically with changes depending on how teams are playing throughout the season.
This next section is a good chance to see how well calibrated the system is. 3 wins out of 5 should be doable, getting 4 would be a good result. They can beat up on Philly and Minny at the back-end but need to take one or two against the tougher opponents first.
ST
Current Standings:
1. Memphis (4-0)
2. Houston (4-0)
3. Golden State (3-0)
4. Portland (1-2)
5. Sacramento (3-1)
:
Since Last Update:
@ LA Lakers (W)
@ Utah (W)
vs Boston (W)
@ Philadelphia (W)
Projected Score: 3.7 wins
Actual Score: 4 wins
Next 5 Games:
@ Miami (3-0)
vs San Antonio (1-1)
vs Golden State (3-0)
@ Minnesota (1-2)
vs Philadelphia (0-4)
Projected Score: 3.2 wins
Full Schedule Breakdown:
Gimmes (90% wins):
Boston x2 (1-0)
LA Lakers x3 (1-0)
Orlando x2
Milwaukee x2
Minnesota x4
Philadelphia x2 (1-0)
Utah x4 (1-0)
Current: 4-0
Expected: 17-2
Heavy Favourites (80% wins):
Brooklyn (x2)
Charlotte (x2)
Detroit (x2)
Denver (x4)
Indiana (x2)
New York (x2)
Sacramento (x3)
Current: 0-0
Expected: 14-3
Favourites (60% wins):
Atlanta (x2)
Miami (x2)
New Orleans (x4)
Phoenix (x4)
Toronto (x2)
Washington (x2)
Current: 0-0
Expected: 10-6
Even (50% wins):
Chicago (x2)
Dallas (x4)
Golden State (x4)
Portland (x3)
Memphis (x4)
Current: 0-0
Expected: 9-8
Underdogs (30% wins):
Cleveland (x2)
LA Clippers (x4)
Oklahoma City (x3)
San Antonio (x4)
Current: 0-0
Expected: 4-9
Predicted Record: 54-28