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[Red94]

New post: The Red94 Podcast: Episode 60
By: Rahat Huq

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In today's episode, we recap the Rockets' season opening win over the Lakers, and also check in on old friends Chandler Parsons and Omer Asik.

[thejohnnygold]

Nice job, guys.

 

I disagree somewhat with your perspective on Harden's usage and Dwight's post-ups.  Yes, Dwight shot terribly from the free throw line (7-16), but when he did get a shot off he was 1-3 in the post (if memory serves) and 3-5 overall with 1 assist and just 1 turnover.  More importantly, the Lakers were sending 3 guys to defend him.  THREE GUYS.  We haven't seen that in a long time and it bodes well for our future.  If he is collapsing defenses simply by touching the ball in the post then our three point shooters are going to feast.  We'll see how he fares against better defenders, but I think he is back to nearly unstoppable 1 on 1 in the post.  Let's not neglect the benefit of getting in the bonus early either.

 

He posted a 13 & 11 with 1 block in 20 minutes.  Just bumping that to 30 mpg nets you 20 pts, 17 reb, and 2 blks.....per36 gets you 23 pts, 19 reb, and still 2 blks.  That's nearly a 20-20.  That would also likely have resulted in about 14 total fouls racked up on opposing bigs.  I get that it's not the prettiest nor is it the most efficient when viewed in a vacuum, but there is a lot to be gained from Dwight on offense in the big picture.

 

Regarding Harden's usage--for the very reasons you guys listed, we should continue to post-up Dwight.  It allows the other guys to rest.  It does good things.  Sticking fouls on opposing bigs is never bad--ask James Harden (who we are coddling now, apparently) who he would rather try to score against--the starting center or the back-up?  That answer should be obvious.  If protecting Harden's legs, minutes, and health risk are important why shun posting up Dwight?  Playing inside out got us 2 rings.  It can't hurt to give it a go for 10 minutes a game while James rests.  Dwight with Beverley, Terry, Ariza, and Jones can hold down the fort on offense and defense.  (also, I like Jones' new shot.  It looks a bit quicker and he is clearly working on that 18 ft. range)

 

Dwight is happier and more aggressive on both ends when he is posting up.  An engaged and active Dwight running at full throttle is better than a ho-hum Dwight idling his way through the game.  Whatever you think of those "wasted" post-up possessions (you only need 15 or so of them) you will gain it all back on the other 50 or so possessions per game he plays plus all the defense.

 

We all long for the pick n roll, but let's see how things unfold as the season goes.  It's not like Morey and McHale don't know it is a good play.  They attempted some last night without much success--it looks like it needs some tweaking to get the spacing better.

[Mario Peña]

Completely agree johnnygold, especially on Dwight post ups. There are too many benefits that are not measurable from Dwight getting his post ups. Does Harden score and assist at a higher clip versus back up centers (in for foul troubled starting centers)? Do Ariza, Terry and Daniels get more open three's thus increasing their percentages or do the games become more of a blow out with more open three's going down thus allowing starters to rest in 4th quarters, there is no way to directly measure how these intricacies effect each other but those are just a few of the indirect possibilities from Dwight post ups.

[thejohnnygold]

Completely agree johnnygold, especially on Dwight post ups. There are too many benefits that are not measurable from Dwight getting his post ups. Does Harden score and assist at a higher clip versus back up centers (in for foul troubled starting centers)? Do Ariza, Terry and Daniels get more open three's thus increasing their percentages or do the games become more of a blow out with more open three's going down thus allowing starters to rest in 4th quarters, there is no way to directly measure how these intricacies effect each other but those are just a few of the indirect possibilities from Dwight post ups.

 

There are some advanced analysts trying to work this out---at least as best they can.  By using the Sportvu tracking and applying situational scoring percentages they are mapping every second and every movement on the court and assigning each an "epv" (expected possession value).  As the ball moves the value fluctuates.  By studying volumes and volumes of plays the analysts will be able to discern the moments in each play where the highest "return value" is and how each action affects the ones to come.  It's complicated and I can't imagine the vastness of the under-taking.  Here is a link that talks about it a bit more: LINK

 

Ideally, it will be able to give us more than what synergy currently does with their break down of each "type" of shot for each player.  It will go that extra step and show that, for instance, when Dwight gets the ball on the left block and passes out the shooter has an epv of 1.3, and if that shooter makes one extra pass the epv jumps to 1.4, and so on.

 

Some of it is common sense as we know the "extra pass" is often good; however, it takes into account who the extra pass goes to.  If Kyle Korver is making the extra pass there is the likelihood the epv goes down a bit....it's fascinating stuff to consider.

 

I'm more interested in seeing how they translate that to "defensive epv".  I think that will yield some interesting results.

 

Ultimately, each play is unique.  Trevor Ariza "juked" Kobe and nailed a three last night, but there is simply no formula that can predict that another Rocket had crept over to set a screen and Kobe would catch his leg on the screener, his knee would buckle for a split second, and leave Ariza wide open for said three.  What's the epv of Jason Terry taking an inbounds pass and banking it off the glass from 26' at the buzzer?  Doesn't matter; apparently, it is 3.0 

 

It still seems like we need to work on our entry passes--there were more than a few times last night we missed Dwight when he had excellent inside position or just struggled to get him the ball in a timely manner.  We've got 81 more games to figure it out!

[Mario Peña]

Yup, I know about that, thanks though. I am the person who posted the EPVA post last season that got little to no commentary.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I still prefer if Dwight focused more on setting tons of screens and playing the pick-and-roll, but with all the improvement I've seen in Dwight's game I am not as strongly against it as I used to be. 

[Red94]

At the very least, if it keeps him happy and engaged, throwing a few possessions with Dwight postups is worth it.

[rockets best fan]

IMO D-12 would be a much better post player if we as a team were getting him better looks with our passing. this is one of the reasons I believe we need an upgrade at PG.

[Losthief]

He also needs to learn to post with his butt rather than his arms, he'll draw less of the ref's attention doing so. But yeah....sometimes we pass him out of deep position and it kills me. We also miss him alot if he gets down the court quick and seals.

Edited by Losthief, 02 November 2014 - 07:44 AM.

[Red94]

^Very weak lower body, comparatively speaking.  He's top heavy.