One look at the stats and the highlights and it's clear that Terrence Jones has more potential than Donatas Motiejunas. Jones had a PER of 18.9 while D-Mo's was a mere 11.3. Coach McHale seems convinced too seeing as the Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard line-up saw 619.2 minutes last season, while in contrast Motiejunas was given only 67.6 minutes with that starting line-up in Jones's steed. The 5-man unit with D-Mo actually performed better but we can't draw any conclusions from that given the small sample size, however, at the very least I think it validates the question: are the Rockets a better team with D-Mo in the starting line-up? Jones is probably the better player, but the better player and the better fit is not necessarily mutually exclusive.
The Rockets starting line-up performed better with Donatas Motiejunas in Terrence Jones's steed
The starting line-up with Casspi at power-forward also performed better, but given Casspi's lack of size, obviously that was something the Rockets could only do if the match-ups allowed it. Is that the case with D-Mo as well? He's not the fastest guy in the world laterally, maybe those 67.6 minutes came against opposing PFs who aren't great at putting the ball on the floor.
There is so much that goes on defensively, so many different aspects of defense to consider, that it's hard for even experts to put a value on a player's defensive impact. I've seen many fans in NBA discussion groups attempt to measure defensive impact with blocks and steals, but most of us are aware by now that method is a flawed science at best--Dennis Rodman is a testament to that. After discussions with some very smart people familiar with NBA analytics (via twitter and online forums), I have come to the conclusion that RAPM is the best single tool for measuring defensive impact, even ESPN have developed their own version (I'm not yet sure what the difference is) called RPM. According to RPM, Donatas is a plus defender. This metric does have a margin of error, and those like Donatas who didn't play a whole lot of minutes would have a much larger margin of error than a starter would. Obviously, we should take the fact Donatas has a positive dRPM with a grain of salt, but I don't think we should dismiss it completely. Donatas's lateral movement might look poor in contrast to the likes of Paul Millsap and Draymond Green, but it's not exactly Al Jefferson-bad. At the end of the day he's a legit 7 footer who tries, and for whatever it's worth, defense has been his focus of improvement this summer. Besides, Terrence Jones's dRPM is atrocious, ranking 80th among power forwards last season which doesn't surprise me one bit. Seemingly every power forward in the league put up career highs against Terrence Jones. At the very least, the defense won't get any worse if Donatas was to start over Terrence, and I have reason to believe the offense could get astronomically better. I'm going to explain why I think the Rockets offense could be better with Donatas, just bear with me for a minute.
According to SynergySports, the two least efficient plays the Rockets ran last season were the Dwight Howard post-up and the James Harden isolation, and for reasons unknown these were also the two most frequently ran plays. In contrast, the pick-and-roll was the most efficient play, and it was used on less than 13% of Rockets possessions.
The Rockets ranked 1st in pick-and-roll efficiency but used it on less than 13% of their possessions
Interestingly, the Mavericks used the pick-and-roll more than any other team in the league, and they arguably gave the Spurs the most trouble in the playoffs this year pushing them to 7 games. However, the fact the Mavericks have the best floor spacing power forward in the league might have something to do with how frequently they were able to run the pick-and-roll. Afterall, many defenses are putting more emphasis on packing the paint these last several years--something Zach Lowe believes has come as a result of Coach Thibodeau's influence.
An example of how teams pack the paint against the pick-and-roll
I believe the Rockets will be able to operate the pick-and-roll with a higher level of frequency with a starting power-forward who stretches the floor, and I believe Donatas is a much better shooter than Jones is. Don't let the stats fool you, despite the poor percentage Donatas shot from outside last season, defenses still respect him out there to a certain degree--a degree I am optimistic can rise given Donatas's good looking stroke. In contrast, Terrence gets blatantly left wide open out there.
That about sums up my thoughts on why the Rockets starting line-up might perform better with D-Mo. I could be wrong, but considering all the information which points towards the possibility in question, I only hope McHale gives D-Mo a chance. Whether you like D-Mo or not, there's no denying that a 7 footer with his skill-set is extremely rare, and I would hate to see D-Mo leave the Rockets and blow-up somewhere else (especially the Mavs, that would kill me).
Edited by 2016Champions, 22 October 2014 - 09:17 AM.
