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@  Drew in Abilene : (27 April 2014 - 07:32 PM) After Friday's win, I was cautiously optimistic. In the two days since, I've become even more so. I think we can take today's game and the Blazers would be reeling. The first round this year has been straight up Crazy Go Nuts.
@  RocketMansin... : (27 April 2014 - 05:24 AM) RED NATION! Lets go get a W tomorrow.
@  thenit : (27 April 2014 - 04:07 AM) *blowing a big lead
@  thenit : (27 April 2014 - 04:07 AM) Wow okc might be down 3-1 after blowing a nig
@  BrentYen : (26 April 2014 - 11:32 PM) I still feel ROX is a better talented team. POR is kind of just uniquely equipped to beat ROX in a sense.
@  linonlyfan : (26 April 2014 - 12:36 PM) Can't stop rewatching the finish. Come on 2-2!
@  Buckko : (26 April 2014 - 07:27 AM) If we win the next game, we regain HCA, but then again that seems more like a disadvantage than an advantage in this postseason.
@  QNoir : (26 April 2014 - 06:36 AM) I like that he's a fast talker, though. Seems like a sharp kid.
@  QNoir : (26 April 2014 - 06:35 AM) I like Troy Daniels in the big moment, but gotta see some consistent play.
@  gaiusmariusj : (26 April 2014 - 06:24 AM) Houston 4 - 2
@  linonlyfan : (26 April 2014 - 06:19 AM) Gotta at least get 2-2. The next game is gonna be the best shot we get. Once we are at 2-2 it should be advantage rockets. We haven't even had a efficient offense night yet. But the team really came together today when it could have fractured. V exciting.
@  kdo : (26 April 2014 - 05:56 AM) This series is going to give me a heart attack
@  blakecouey : (26 April 2014 - 05:54 AM) It's gotta hurt at least as much as the game 1 loss did for us. OT losses at home in the playoffs just aren't supposed to happen.
@  blakecouey : (26 April 2014 - 05:51 AM) @rocketrick Wednesday I was surrounded by several "fans" screaming that Harden was trash, at TC. People expecting him to play defense at this point are clueless.
@  feelingsuper... : (26 April 2014 - 05:51 AM) Go Rockets!!! I like that they beat the Blazers in overtime, hopefully that kills them a little more.
@  rocketrick : (26 April 2014 - 05:50 AM) I'm so proud of the Rockets tonight--down 4 in OT and they stuck together as a team and overcame a lot of adversity. Kudos to Coach McHale to have the cojones to play a rookie down the stretch!
@  linonlyfan : (26 April 2014 - 05:49 AM) A solid win would have put the chances of going back to Houston 2-2 at over 50%. This still feels like a 50-50, granted we haven't seen Harden's best on offense yet. But yeah we alive, and momentum could be shifting. Those Howard FT's were amazing.
@  RocketMansin... : (26 April 2014 - 05:47 AM) What a nerve wrecking but great game.. You hope this type of game drains the momentum for the Trailblazers. Guess we will find out on Sunday, TROY DANIELS BABY!
@  rocketrick : (26 April 2014 - 05:44 AM) It's unbelievable to me that "Rocket fans" were already burying the Rockets and Harden because of the same ol' argument, Harden's bad defense. Just pathetic people!
@  rocketrick : (26 April 2014 - 05:44 AM) Won it easier? This is the Playoffs! The Rockets just won a pivotal Game 3 and you are complaining because it was too close? I think our fan base has some weak links.

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Houston Rockets vs Portland Trailblazers: Some thoughts about the benches, Harden's defense, and adjustments


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#1 Red94

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    Posted 23 April 2014 - 02:10 AM

    New post: Houston Rockets vs Portland Trailblazers: Some thoughts about the benches, Harden's defense, and adjustments
    By: Richard Li

    First, the benches

    [caption id="attachment_14336" align="aligncenter" width="300"]Click for a full-sized, interactive version Click for a full-sized, interactive version[/caption]

    At the end of the regular season, the Portland Trailblazers was the most bench-allergic team in the league. Portland played its bench 29.55% of the time, or dead last in the league. I've noted that, given the bench data, the Golden State Warriors and Trailblazers are in precarious states because they both play their benches very little, and their benches aren't very good. One injury to an overworked starter portended disaster. One Andrew Bogut injury later, I feel pretty proud of my prediction (though bad for the Warriors). And while the Blazers might not be injured, they are most definitely tired. Take a look at Portland's field goal attempts and their opponents' over the course of the season.

    Portland The Blazers accelerated their pace through January, but have played significantly more slowly since. Their opponents, who were once being run off the court to the tune of four fewer field goal attempts per game in January, have now turned the tables and are out running the Blazers. Think the Blazers lack of bench utilization has something to do with these trends?

    In any other situation, the Blazers would be in position to be out run/out lasted in the playoffs. However, it just so happens that their opponent under-utilizes their bench almost as much. Houston played its bench 31.15% of the time, or 3rd to last (the Clippers are 2nd to last). The difference though, as it has been all year, is that Houston's bench is actually quite good, whereas Portland's is not. Houston's bench has a net rating of +3 per 100 possessions, good enough for 5th in the league, behind the Spurs, Thunder, Mavs, and Heat. Portland's bench has a net rating of -1.9 per 100 possessions, well below the league average of -0.95.

    I've gone on record as saying I believe the Rockets need to utilize their bench more given how good it is compared to the every other team's and the rest it would afford the starters. After injury scares to just about every Rocket, particularly Beverley, Howard, and Parsons, I'm continuously flummoxed by the Rockets reluctance to play their bench. If game one between these two teams is any indication, whoever makes it out of the series will be too gassed to put up much resistance next round. Take a look at this chart.

    RP

    This chart shows the percentage of a team's minutes played by the team's bench, both during the regular season and the playoffs (only playoff teams). For Houston and Portland this year, the playoffs minutes are just based upon one game, an admittedly small sample but one that's pretty aligned with their regular season trends. As you can see, both teams are setting a new [low] bar when it comes to using their benches. This is even more striking considering that four players were in foul trouble the whole game before eventually fouling out. Here's another chart.

    DifferenceThis chart shows the percentage difference in bench usage between regular season and playoffs (regular season minutes - playoff minutes / regular season minutes). The general trend certainly seems to be tilting towards using bench players less and less, and once again Houston and Portland are running far ahead of the pack, using their benches over 18% and 21% less, respectively, than in the regular season. In other words, these two teams use their benches less than almost everyone else, and in the playoffs have decreased their bench minutes more than everyone else. This series is likely going 6-7 games. The likely opponent for the victor is the Spurs, who led the league in bench usage. None of this bodes well.

    Harden's defense

    James Harden has lately received quite a bit of criticism regarding his lackluster defense, most of it deserved. A now infamous Youtube video shows him either swatting aimlessly at an opponent who has driven by him, or slowly wandering into the paint (but not leaving it) after an opponent has cut across the floor and is in position for an open jump shot.

    ESPN's recap of game 1 alluded to a stat that surprised me a bit, so I double checked to verify its veracity. Out of 160 players who have played at least 50 games and at least 25 minutes per game, James Harden ranks 159th in distance traveled per 48 minutes at 2.9 miles, just barely ahead of the less-than-spry Paul Pierce. In comparison, his backcourt teammate, the energetic Pat Beverley, ranks 8th at 3.5 miles. Also worth noting is that three Spurs are in the top 10, Parker, Leonard, and Belinelli. They have been the beneficiaries of receiving the most rest in the league, while Harden has received almost the least. He might also be responsible for guarding them (especially Belinelli) in the next round if all the chips fall into place. Again, this does not bode well.

    Enough digression. Houston Rockets followers just have to live with Harden not being the world's most active defender. To some extent, that's OK. Not everyone is. But there's a line of tolerance that needs to be met, and at least mine is wearing very thin. Not only does the data point to Harden being almost the least active player in the league (at least Parker, for all his defensive deficiencies, runs around a lot), but coping with Harden's lack of activity puts a lot of stress on team defense. Late in the season, the Rockets adopted a strategy of putting Harden on the opponent's post man in the low block, usually the power forward. This "hides" Harden on defense because he doesn't have to chase wing players on the perimeter, which he doesn't do, nor does he have to constantly stay in front of dribble penetrators (he just swipes at them after they've passed him).

    Hiding Harden in this way throws off the defensive assignments. As the shooting guard, he's not just trading assignments with the small forward (Parsons), but with the power forward. It's one thing for a wing to switch to another wing, it's another for a power forward to switch onto a wing. Parsons can try guarding the guy across from Harden, but Jones/Motiejunas/et al will have a much harder time guarding the guy across from Parsons. This necessitates a lot of small ball using Parsons as the 4 so the defensive assignments can remain somewhat feasible. Against some teams, this might work out. Against Portland, it means Lamarcus Aldridge finds himself being guarded by a small forward. In extreme cases, Howard might switch onto Aldridge, but that takes Howard away from the paint and now Parsons is left trying to block out Robin Lopez.

    See what happens? There's a crescendo of actions that results from trying to hide Harden on defense, and none of them work out well. It also severely limits the possibility of pairing Howard and Asik, which was a much talked about strategy that was used an entirety of 4 minutes or something in game 1.

    Adjustments

    In five games against the Rockets, Aldridge has averaged 30.6 points and 16 rebounds. Everyone who is saying "oh comeon, it's not like he can do that every game," you're wrong. He has been doing that every game and will continue to do so because he's a nightmare matchup for the Rockets. What did Einstein say about the definition of insanity being doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result? If the Rockets keep guarding Aldridge the same way they have been and simply expect him to be average, they're insane.

    Would it be so horrible to send some guys off the bench (I'm thinking Motiejunas, specifically) just to see what happens when they're on the floor with Aldridge? I mean really, could it get much worse? In our round table, pretty much everyone said they expected a drop off from Jones because of the matchup against Aldridge. Yet, Jones played most of the game and Aldridge went all-world on the Rockets, which is just par for the course. Again, definition of insanity...

    I also think that the Rockets can take a page out of the Blazers book. They sent Wes Matthews into Harden's grill, literally. He stuck his butt into Harden and forced Harden to play do his least favorite thing, play active defense. I have a feeling that was more for making Harden expend energy purposes than for putting points on the board purposes (though that also happened). I wonder if the Rockets could use the pick and roll to switch Aldridge onto a smaller perimeter player and run him around on defense a little bit. Or, better yet, sub in Motiejunas (use the bench!) to stretch Aldridge to the perimeter, where he's less comfortable and has to move more.

    Remember, Portland is the most tired team in the league. Substituting more than them and making them run is to the Rockets advantage.


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    #2 feelingsupersonic

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    Posted 23 April 2014 - 02:19 AM

    There is a big difference between 46 points and 30 points especially when you consider where else Portland will get points from. For instance we could imagine Aldridge with 30 points and 8 shots he made redistributed to less efficient Blazers. Let's say half of those are made by others so that's an 8 point swing. Aldridge's game for the ages and a few other differences and this is easily a Rocket win.
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    #3 chantu

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      Posted 23 April 2014 - 02:30 AM

      I say sick Asik on Aldridge.  Keep him to his 30.6 points and we win.


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      #4 RocketMansinceStevieFrance

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      Posted 23 April 2014 - 03:10 AM

      Rockets really need to stick DMO out there and just tell him to heckle LMA like no other.. You do that and force him to miss a few shots and thats a very good thing for the rockets.

       

      I know I said this earlier in a post, plus I know I do not have a lot of accreditation on this site seeing as I am a 'newbie' but in my mind someone really needs to look at LMA's shot chart and tell me why he did not take a single shot from the right side of the court???? Was this just a coincidence or does he struggle shooting on that side?

       

      Just a few thoughts.  


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      #5 thejohnnygold

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      Posted 23 April 2014 - 03:14 AM

      I think we will wind up seeing quite a few different line-ups trying to find a "winning" combination--both big and small.  It won't surprise me to see Garcia or Hamilton out there playing stretch 4 like Delfino did.  I also won't be surprised to see D-Mo taking his turn.  It will be fun to see what works and what doesn't.  Ultimately, Aldridge is a great offensive player and that is always a pleasure to watch.

       

      As for his left side dominance--that is just where he operates.  They run their offense through him and that is where he is comfortable.  You would see the same thing looking up Hakeem's shot charts from the championship days.  It would not be feasible to "force" Aldridge to play from the right side.


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      #6 Cooper

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        Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:07 AM

        I say sick Asik on Aldridge. Keep him to his 30.6 points and we win.

        Asik is too slow, Aldridge gets him in foul trouble right away.
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        #7 metaman

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          Posted 23 April 2014 - 04:33 AM

          Another excellent article from RIchard Li. The reveal about Harden being the least-travelled player in the NBA comes as no surprise. As great a basketball player as he is, his emphasis on offensive output only is frustrating to watch. Of course it's great to get the 25+ ppg, but it's also mixed blessing as he essentially gives up an extra 10-15 points to more athletic SG/PG/SFs. Long term, in the off-season, Harden should do some endurance and strength training. He's a young man -- there's no reason he can't be better shape to exert more effort.


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          #8 chantu

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            Posted 23 April 2014 - 05:06 AM

            Asik is too slow, Aldridge gets him in foul trouble right away.

            Asik's a good defensive player.  He's not going to be in that long so fouls are less of an issue. We need  big body on him.  DMO's too skinny.


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            #9 RocketMansinceStevieFrance

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            Posted 23 April 2014 - 05:41 AM

            TheJohnnyGold that is exactly what I am saying, you said that is where he is comfortable and if you are the Rockets that is what you are trying to change is him being in his comfort zone. So why not attempt to take him out of his comfort zone? And another thing is I can not stand when T-Jones or anyone else lets him post up and turn to his left they have to force him to the middle of the paint if he gets the opportunity to use the glass he is going to always be efficient. 


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            #10 rm90025

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              Posted 23 April 2014 - 06:19 AM

              The Blazers seem more prepared to think strategically about how to attack the Rockets, execute on a game plan and make in-game adjustments.  Houston's game 1 approach was really no different than how they deal with regular season games. I'm very curious to see if McHale has it within him to make a strategic adjustment to tilt the tempo, match ups and shot selection in Houston's favor.  These teams are evenly matched so talent alone isn't going to win this series.  Aldridge and Lillard can score more points and secure more rebounds than Harden and Howard.  Parsons, Lin, Asik and the bench are better than Portland's supporting cast.  


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              #11 dbd

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                Posted 23 April 2014 - 11:53 AM

                Agreed. Our approach in game 1 was no different than regular season and collective talent of starting five is almost equal.

                Blazers won the game one by disrupting our momentum by fouling Dwight. We must do the same. Disrupt LMA rhythm by sending new bodies such as D-Mo and Asik. I don't mind even sending smaller guys like Garcia and Hamilton.


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                #12 rocketrick

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                  Posted 23 April 2014 - 12:19 PM

                  The Blazers seem more prepared to think strategically about how to attack the Rockets, execute on a game plan and make in-game adjustments.  Houston's game 1 approach was really no different than how they deal with regular season games. I'm very curious to see if McHale has it within him to make a strategic adjustment to tilt the tempo, match ups and shot selection in Houston's favor.  These teams are evenly matched so talent alone isn't going to win this series.  Aldridge and Lillard can score more points and secure more rebounds than Harden and Howard.  Parsons, Lin, Asik and the bench are better than Portland's supporting cast.


                  My thoughts on this is the fact that it is best to "save a couple of bullets" for future games. If McHale exhausted all his options in Game 1, what moves are left to make?

                  This is a long, 7-game series.

                  I always thought from the start that those who expected the Rockets to win this series in 5 games were undervaluing the Blazers.

                  Each game is different as history has shown and I don't expect to see the same rotations, same short bench, same individual matchups, tonight, that the Rockets employed during Game 1.

                  Go Rockets!

                  Edited by rocketrick, 23 April 2014 - 12:20 PM.

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                  #13 thejohnnygold

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                  Posted 23 April 2014 - 03:48 PM

                  TheJohnnyGold that is exactly what I am saying, you said that is where he is comfortable and if you are the Rockets that is what you are trying to change is him being in his comfort zone. So why not attempt to take him out of his comfort zone? And another thing is I can not stand when T-Jones or anyone else lets him post up and turn to his left they have to force him to the middle of the paint if he gets the opportunity to use the glass he is going to always be efficient. 

                   

                  I'm not sure I can explain this any better.  You seem to be under the impression that we can prevent Aldridge from setting up on the left block to go to work.  How would that happen exactly?

                   

                  He is allowed to stand where he wants on the court.  To force him out of there would be to foul him.  We could try to deny an entry pass....but he is 7' tall with soft hands and has been working that spot since high school.  He knows how to create space to get the ball one way or the other.  We could double him and deny even getting the ball in his hands (like we did with Durant)....but unlike OKC, Portland will make us regret that decision by raining open threes on us and/or getting easy back door lay-ups.

                   

                  Aldridge seems to dribble much better right-handed so setting up on the left allows him to keep the ball in his strong hand and away from defenders while still seeing the floor.  He has no reason nor desire to set up on the right.

                   

                  The only way to get him over there would be to physically pick him up and carry him....which is a foul :lol:

                   

                  Watch this video and explain to me how we "stop" Aldridge from doing anything....all you can hope for is he has an off night and shoots more jumpers than anything else:

                   

                   

                  Here is the shot chart:

                   

                   

                  Why wouldn't you want him to shoot from his spots?  Those percentages are exactly what the Rockets want....the only problem is we have to find someone who can defend well enough to make him shoot from back there and not point blank at the rim.

                   

                  If this is insufficient to answer your question then I implore you to do your own research to find the answers you seek.  There is a wealth of knowledge at your fingertips and it's a tad lazy to repeatedly ask others to do it for you.

                   

                  EDIT: clarity


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                  #14 brewboss

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                    Posted 23 April 2014 - 05:40 PM

                    In reading this very good article about Kyle Lowry I learned that D-Mo is fifth in the league in charges drawn this season with 22! That's more than half as many as league leader DeMarcus Cousins in less than a quarter of the minutes. Think he could keep Aldridge away from the hoop a little and generate some turnovers? McHale, PLAY THIS MAN!


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                    #15 uojoe82

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                      Posted 23 April 2014 - 05:54 PM

                      I think the data about Harden just reinforces what everyone already knows. Harden is lazy on defense and its no due to lack of ability, its just effort. 

                       

                      The irony is that if he turns his defense around and becomes at least average for the remainder of this series on defense then this means that all season long it was an effort issue, Wouldn't this make you mad as a Rocket fan to know that he was just dogging it all season long and had the ability to be better? I don't think his defense will improve at all because he doesn't have to. At the end of the OT last game McHale was alternating Terrence Jones and Lin for offense and defense (Lin for offense, Jones for defense). This just shows that even when defensive stops are at a premium Mchale is unwilling to offend his designated hitter by pulling him on defense. 

                       

                      This isnt the right forum to bring this up but has anyone thought of the long term implications of Beverley trying to play through this injury for both the Rockets and for Beverley? The realistic Rocket fan knows that winning a title this year is a long shot at best, it would have to take some upsets (Memphis eliminating OKC, Clippers being ousted by the Warriors) and some injuries (like the Al Jefferson injury, but to a contender) for the Rockets to have a chance. Is it smart to risk the long term health of Beverley in order to win a couple more games?


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                      #16 Cooper

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                        Posted 23 April 2014 - 06:45 PM

                        I couldn't care less about players dogging it on D during the regular season. The only players that play big minutes and don't are Noah, Butler, Tony Allen and Beverley thats it. If mchale is a failure for not pulling harden, parsons and others for bad defense every coach in the league does the exact same thing with their starters at some point. Who would you even put in? the 4-1 spots were all garbage on defense are you suggesting to bench everyone but Dwight? Its not like a Lineup of Howard DMo Hamilton Garcia and Lin would have fared well. Harden takes a lot of heat for defense but lets be real the whole team just isn't all that good defensively and it isn't that big a deal when they are running their offense and getting to the rim.


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                        #17 Steven

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                          Posted 23 April 2014 - 06:51 PM

                          I couldn't care less about players dogging it on D during the regular season. The only players that play big minutes and don't are Noah, Butler, Tony Allen and Beverley thats it. If mchale is a failure for not pulling harden, parsons and others for bad defense every coach in the league does the exact same thing with their starters at some point. Who would you even put in? the 4-1 spots were all garbage on defense are you suggesting to bench everyone but Dwight? Its not like a Lineup of Howard DMo Hamilton Garcia and Lin would have fared well. Harden takes a lot of heat for defense but lets be real the whole team just isn't all that good defensively and it isn't that big a deal when they are running their offense and getting to the rim.

                          The whole team was top 10 in points per 100 possessions. Points allowed is skewed because the pace at which the Rockets play, the other team gets more possessions then say the Eastern Conference and their walk it up the court method of playing basketball.

                          Edited by Steven, 23 April 2014 - 06:51 PM.

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                          #18 Willk

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                            Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:06 PM

                            I couldn't care less about players dogging it on D during the regular season. The only players that play big minutes and don't are Noah, Butler, Tony Allen and Beverley thats it. If mchale is a failure for not pulling harden, parsons and others for bad defense every coach in the league does the exact same thing with their starters at some point. Who would you even put in? the 4-1 spots were all garbage on defense are you suggesting to bench everyone but Dwight? Its not like a Lineup of Howard DMo Hamilton Garcia and Lin would have fared well. Harden takes a lot of heat for defense but lets be real the whole team just isn't all that good defensively and it isn't that big a deal when they are running their offense and getting to the rim.

                            Cooper I could not agree more. I am not concerned that Harden took plays off on D during the regular season. The first 1/4 of the season Harden was playing with foot and knee injuries. He gave little effort on defense saving himself for the offensive side of the ball. Maybe he should have sit out some more of those games, maybe not. The most important thing is that he healthy now. The do not give out championships for wins in the regular season.  

                            Harden did take the first half off of defense during game 1, but his defense improved in the second half. This will probably happen again tonight. Good players know how to pace themselves and this is how Harden paces himself.


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                            #19 Cooper

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                              Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:59 PM

                              The whole team was top 10 in points per 100 possessions. Points allowed is skewed because the pace at which the Rockets play, the other team gets more possessions then say the Eastern Conference and their walk it up the court method of playing basketball.

                              I haven't been keeping up with ppp stats much but if thats the case then I don't see why people are upset about the defense. Top 10 is good enough to contend for a title with our scoring ability.


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                              #20 thejohnnygold

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                              Posted 23 April 2014 - 09:08 PM

                              For what it's worth (since nobody seems interested in the notion that James Harden's foul count matters) here is our record with the corresponding number of fouls from this season for James:

                               

                              with 5 fouls -                4-3

                              with 4 fouls -                4-4

                              with 3 fouls -              13-4

                              with 2 or less fouls - 27-14

                               

                              That may just be coincidence and I am sure other factors are at play, but that is compelling data nonetheless.

                               

                              James had 3 fouls in the loss to Portland on Sunday.

                               

                              Let's look at Dwight while we're here...

                               

                              with 5 fouls -             8-4

                               

                              with 4 fouls -           17-6

                               

                              with 3 fouls -           13-7

                               

                              with 2 or less fouls - 9-6

                               

                              I find this interesting.  Dwight appears to be best at the 4 foul level and worst with 2 or less.  Only two of the "2 or less" games had him playing less than 30 minutes so that's not a huge factor.  Of the "2 or less", 7 were against non-playoff teams.  Of the 5 foul games, only two were against non-playoff teams (NOP and DEN).

                               

                              (I can't believe neither Dwight nor James fouled out of a single game this season)

                               

                              How about Chandler.....

                               

                              with 6 fouls -    1-0

                               

                              with 5 fouls -    4-1

                               

                              with 4 fouls -    3-6

                               

                              with 3 fouls -    8-5

                               

                              with 2 fouls -  15-6

                               

                              with 1 foul  -   15-5

                               

                              with 0 fouls -    5-0

                               

                              Parsons seems to fall into the less is more category.  He is 35-11 when committing 2 or less fouls and 16-12 with 3+ fouls.

                               

                              Since we've come this far....let's look at Beverley...

                               

                              with 6 fouls -    2-2

                               

                              with 5 fouls -    7-4

                               

                              with 4 fouls -    7-3

                               

                              with 3 fouls -    7-5

                               

                              with 2 fouls -  10-1

                               

                              with 1 foul  -     6-1

                               

                              with 0 fouls -    2-1

                               

                              ...And Jeremy Lin....

                               

                              with 5 fouls -     1-3

                               

                              with 4 fouls -     8-5

                               

                              with 3 fouls -   12-3

                               

                              with 2 fouls -   15-3

                               

                              with 1 foul -      7-6

                               

                              with 0 fouls -    5-3

                               

                              Lin and Bev are a little different as their minutes average closer to 30 versus the other guys.  Bev excels with 2 or less while Lin prospers in the 2-3 range.

                               

                              We can't leave out Jones, can we?...

                               

                               

                              with 5 fouls -     2-1

                               

                              with 4 fouls -     3-2

                               

                              with 3 fouls -     8-4

                               

                              with 2 fouls -   13-9

                               

                              with 1 foul -     17-7

                               

                              with 0 fouls -     8-2

                               

                               

                              What does it all mean?....hard to speculate as so many variables can go into these things.  The one thing that stands out is that when Parsons and Harden don't register fouls we tend to win.  My hypothesis is that this allows them to spend more time on the court while being more aggressive on offense (by not worrying about picking up charges) which seems to translate to wins.  If this comes at the expense of lackadaisical defense then so be it.

                               

                              We can be 100% assured Morey has run numbers upon numbers about this stuff.  It would not surprise me one bit if he has determined offensive effort outweighs defensive effort (at least individually).  I think our team defense is what gets us in trouble more than most anything else.  Back door cuts and offensive rebounds are the things that kill us over the course of a close game.  These are NBA players and they are going to score.  If we can limit the "gimmes" and make them earn their points our offense should outpace most teams most of the time.  We'll find out in about 4.5 hours!!!! :D


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