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Based on what I've read on the forum lately there seems to be a lot of confidence (among rocket fan's) heading into this series with Portland. There is good reason for this confidence but I think Rocket's fans shouldn't expect a quick series because Portland is a very good team.
The season series went in the Rockets favor 3-1 this year. However it could have very well went 2-2 if it wasn't for the Rockets most impressive come back win of the season.
Post All-Star break the Blazers seemed to regress. This isn't that shocking considering there unsustainable start. However it wasn't as if the blazers were a bad team for the second half of the season. Coming into the playoffs the Blazers are 8 and 1 in there last 9 (the return of Lamarcus Aldridge has been a huge factor) and are as healthy as ever. The same can't be said about Rockets.
The Rockets and Blazers have a lot of similarities. Both attack the rim and both shoot the 3 pointer with reckless abandon. Both have 2 all-stars, Offensively both teams share similar shooting %'s with the exception of free throws where the blazers are one of the top FT shooting teams at 82% (Houston is at 71%).
Match-ups (I wont be writing much about the Rockets players because we should all be pretty familiar with them)
Beverley vs Lillard
This might be the most entertaining match up of the series. Based on Lillard's comments from the last game I'm pretty certain that Beverley wont be getting a Christmas card from the Lillard family this year. A lot has been made about Beverley's ability to harass PG's all game long, but coming off what appeared to be a pretty serious injury I'm not sure if Beverley is the same Beverley that held Lillard to sub par performances during the regular season.
In the 4 games against houston this year Lillard performed below par (Par for Lillard is very high). He averaged 19/5/3 in there matchups. Most notable was the fact that Lillard turned the ball over 4 times a game in those meetings. Also of note was that in Portland's lone win against Houston Lillard might have had his worst game of the season. In Houstons 3 wins against Portland Lillard still averaged almost 23 a game will shooting 46% from 3. What do these numbers mean? I'm not sure. But I'm pretty sure that Lillard is jumping at the bit to go against (a not 100%) Beverley in the playoff's and we've seen Beverley commit stupid fouls so if Beverley gets in foul trouble early and Lillard goes off then it could be a very long series. Lillard's one weakness is that he play's Hardenlike defense. Against Houston this won't be a problem because Beverley isn't a threat on offense at all. I doubt it will happen but I'd love to see McHale run some plays for Lin against Lillard because Lin is the type of player who can exploit a lazy defender and get foul calls early.
Lillard is an emerging star and based on Adidas recent $100 million investment in him the rest of the country should know about him by now. The playoffs are a stage for players to emerge into the national spotlight and this could be Lillards opportunity at the Rockets expense. Living in Portland I've seen a lot (the vast majority) of Portland's games this year and Lillard has the "it" factor. I think this is what separates him from other PG's such as John Wall or Kyrie Irving.
This match up is interesting because as we've seen against OKC when Beverley tries too hard its to the detriment of the team. Much like Harden Lillard will get his points this series, however if Beverley can at least make it hard for Lillard then this match-up isnt as one sided as it is on paper.
Harden vs Matthews
Today's NBA doesn't have many true shooting guards and its interesting that this match-up features 2 of them. If i was to tell you that Matthews might be a top 5 SG many of you would laugh, but that declaration might not be that far off.
Matthews is having his best years as a pro this year.He averages 16 ppg and is one of the NBA's most prolific 3 point shooters. There's only 6 players in the NBA this year to shoot over 500 3 pointers and the blazers have 2 of them. Matthews shoots about 40% from long distance so its pretty safe to say he's pretty good. Unlike Harden who will shoot contested 3's will abandon Matthews never seems to take a bad 3 point shot. The Blazers actually run a lot of plays to get Matthews good looks from the behind the line, something I wish the Rockets would do ( I actually wish the Rockets would run plays).
He isn't as near a threat on offense Harden is however Harden's defense make opposing 2 guard perform Hardenlike on offense. Matthews has averaged over 20 ppg against Houston this year and if Harden doesn't at least try on defense Matthews is capable of going for 30 with not a lot of attempts. And unlike a lot of prolific 3 point shooters Matthews gets to the line (4 times a game) and isnt afraid to drive the lane if needed. He also is an above average defender who can physically match-up with Harden.
This match-up is definitely in the Rockets favor but if Matthews goes for an efficient 20 points a night this series Harden is going to have to score 40 to offset Matthews contributions.
Parsons vs Batum
Batum is the perfect player for this team. A couple years ago when Batum hit free agency I was worried that if the Blazers didn't bring him back, some team was going to pay him to be a #1 or #2 option. That would've been catastrophic for Batum's career. On this team Batum plays the perfect role.
Physically these players share a lot of similarities. Both are tall and lanky, and both run the floor with ease. Batum is a very graceful player and sometimes his effortless ability to go up and down the court is mistaken for lack of effort or intensity. This is not the case. Batum doesn't look to score and on this team he doesn't have to. However he is perfectly capable of scoring 20 plus if needed. He grabs almost 8 boards a game and provides 5 assists per game as well. On top of the 13ppg he is very well rounded player. He is an above average ball handler and often brings the ball up the court. This could be a great asset for Portland if Lillard doesn't feel like being harassed full -court by Beverley and Ive seen many a times when Batum takes the role of primary ball handler/facilitator. Batum is also the Blazers best wing defender and I can envision both he and Matthews taking turns trying to defend Harden.
This match-up can go in the Rockets favor is Parson's can score early. But if Parson's shoots a low percentage and doesn't contribute elsewhere this one will go in the Blazers favor. We've seen McHale try to make Parson's into a defensive stopper and I'm not sure if he's the right guy for this role. If Beverley is in foul trouble will we see Parson's try to guard Lillard? Parson generally gets his points but I think its a function of him playing 38 minutes a night. Against the blazers he will need to get an efficient 16-18 ppg in order for this match-up to be at least a push.
Jones vs Aldridge
This is a huge mismatch. Aldridge is the engine that makes the Blazers offense go. When he's on the Blazers offense is the best in the league. His mid range jumper goes in more frequently than Dwight Howard at the line. The Blazers struggled when he was out but since he's been back the Blazers are 8-1.
I'm not going to write much about this one because there's already a post that previews/reviews Aldridge much better than I can do. However one thing I'll add is that Im not sure putting Asik on him is the answer. Aldridge shoots jumpers in the paint and Asik isnt the same out away from the hoop. Jones is athletic enough to guard him (or at least try) but we've seen Jone's shortcomings against the west's elite PF's.
Much like the match up at SG I think that Aldridge is going to score and score a lot. The Rockets can mitigate this by forcing him away from his "spot's" so he shoot's a lower % and to keep him off the boards. I think what's often overlooked about Lamarcus is that he rebounds at an elite level.
Howard vs Lopez
Lopez is the x factor. His performance/production will have a direct impact on many facets of the game. As the Blazers lone center (Meyers Leonard isnt ready and Joel Freeland is coming back from injury and his reliability is tenuous at best) Lopez's ability to stay on the floor will be of utmost importance for the Blazers. As an above average defender and elite offense rebounder Lopez was the missing piece for this team. Last year Aldridge had to share the court with an undersized JJ HIckson at center. This year Aldridge gets to play with a legit center and this has been the most notable difference (and contributor) to the Blazers success.
Lopez versus Howard seems like a huge mismatch but we've seen D12 not dominate against good teams. Lopez is tall and stronger than most think and he doesn't get into foul trouble. On the season he only commits 2.4 fouls a game. He is one of the leagues best offensive rebounders and his ability to keep plays alive often generates easy second chance 3 point looks for Portland's arsenal of 3 point gunners.
If Houston can get Lopez into early foul trouble it will make what Houston wants to do a lot easier. Outside of Lopez no one else on the Blazers is a shot blocker. Aldridge can replace Lopez's rebounding but he isn't a defensive presence. Howard will have to work to keep Lopez off the glass and we've seen the Rockets inability to grab defensive rebound when D12 is preoccupied with someone else so this might be a reason for the Twin Tower's 2.0 lineup.
On offense Lopez is crafty and a very efficient scorer. He isn't as skilled as his brother but Ive watched many a games where Lopez scores in the high teens because the other team doesnt give him the attention he deserves. He isn't the low post scorer Howard is but is very competent around the hoop.
Howard is the clear favorite in this match-up but it isn't as clear of a win as Rocket fans would hope. Don't underestimate Lopez as he makes everyone's job on the Blazers much easier when he is on the court.
Bench
The Blazers bench was probably the weakest in the league last year. The addition of Mo WIlliams and Dorrell Wright have been huge. Joel Freeland played good minutes early on but he is coming back from injury so he is questionable. Thomas Robinson would love to go banana's on his former team (like James Anderson) but his energy often hurts the team when he tries too hard on offense. CJ McCollum is a much better version of Canaan but he seems to have lost the coaches confidence and he hasn't played much. I still think that there will be a game this series where he contributes. Mo Williams does so much for the blazers second unit and can often keep the team afloat when the starters are on the bench. He also gives the blazers a second ball handler and lets Lillard play off the ball and be a scorer for small stints.Williams also has playoff experience. The Blazers bench snit deep but they do have players who know there roles.
The Rockets have 2 quality players on there bench (Lin and Asik ) while everyone else is questionable. However I still think that Rockets have the better bench.
Coaching (the 2 tallest coaches in the league?)
I'm not a McHale fan so I can't objectively write about this. But as someone who has watched a lot of Blazer games I do believe in Terry Stotts ability to coach. He was on the Mav's bench for there championship run so he must've learned something.
It will be interesting to see if Mchale adapts along the way during the series. At the end of close games will he draw up a play or let Harden do his thing? If the Rockets lose this series his job has to be in jeopardy. How ill he coach if his butt is on the hot seat if the series is close?
Disclaimer:
As a native Oregonian Ive always had a place in my heart for the Blazers. However during there jail blazers days it was hard to root for them. And as an Asian American I followed Yao Ming to the Rockets and Tracy McGrady was my favorite player. I went to school with Aaron Brooks and I was mesmerized by Linsanity. So a lot of things led to me being a Rockets fan. I want the Rockets to win this but I thought Id post this as someone who is familiar with the Blazers. I've purchased my tix for games 3 & 4 and cant wait for this to get started.
