4 replies to this topic

[Drew in Abilene]

http://fivethirtyeig...-the-nba-steal/

 

The above article from the new FiveThirtyEight website, and it goes into detail as to why the writer believes that steals are one of the most important stats. I won't go into all his explanations, since his conclusions are right there to be read, but I figured that this might make for some good conversation. Below are the season averages for Rockets players when it comes to steals. Sorry if the table ends up weird, I pulled it straight from ESPN and just deleted all the other values so we could focus in on steals. 

 

James Harden, SG                    1.48          

Patrick Beverley, PG                 1.44          

Chandler Parsons, SF               1.11          

Jeremy Lin, PG                          0.92          

Dwight Howard, C                      0.85          

Omri Casspi, SF                        0.69          

Jordan Hamilton, SF^†                 0.64          

Terrence Jones, PF                   0.60          

Aaron Brooks, PG^†                    0.58          

Francisco Garcia, SG                0.54          

Donatas Motiejunas, PF             0.32          

Ronnie Brewer, SF                     0.26          

Isaiah Canaan, PG                     0.25          

Robert Covington, SF                 0.20          

Omer Asik, C                              0.16          

Greg Smith, PF                          0.09          

Troy Daniels, SG                       0.00          

Totals                                        7.47             

 

So, after reading the article and checking out Houston's steal stats, what are your thoughts? I'd also be interested in looking at some more advanced stats beyond simple, per-game steal numbers. 

[Sir Thursday]

Seems like a fairly basic correlation =/= causation problem to me. There is no way that a steal in and of itself could be worth more than 6 points (Pretty sure the EPV of a possession can never pass 2 before a shot goes up - at which point it couldn't be stolen - and the most you can get on the other end is 4 points), so there must be other factors at work. Now that factor could be the 'fear' effect that a good thief puts into the attacking player's mind, it could be that for every steal there are a couple of deflections that don't get recorded but do disrupt the possession, or it could simply be that players who are good at stealing the ball are point-guards and they tend to have an outsized effect on a team's offensive efficiency, especially good ones. Personally I'm more inclined to shade towards the third one (hence why I'm sceptical about the study), but that's all just conjecture until you can find a way to weed out those effects.

 

(There are a few other problems I have with the methodology: using player replacement means that you're not controlling for all of the other reasons why your chosen player is put on the floor ahead of their backup, and the fact that by virtue of their scarcity indicators like blocks and steals will always rate higher in this sort of analysis. But I've done enough picking apart, methinks ).

 

In any case, there is a glaring hole that needs patching up, and that is the effect of steals on defensive numbers. I thought there had been some studies (although I can't cite them off the top of my head) that showed that steals are a poor indicator of defensive ability since the effect of gambling for them often leaves a defender out of position. If you run the same analysis on defensive performance, how do steals rate? And does that increase or reduce the value of steals?

 

ST

[Steven]

Couldn't a steal be a 8 point turn around? If the shot was three and a foul that was prevented, and it of itself leads to a three and a foul, thus creating an 8 point turn around?

[thejohnnygold]

Bleacher Report has an article/interview with Patrick Beverley--it's mostly Bev answering questions.  Lots of good insights from him about his approach to the game (including steals) and the team as a whole.  LINK

 

Teaser: he tells us why McHale starts him over Lin

[Drew in Abilene]

Terrific article. I really enjoyed the insight into his game that can only come from the inside. And watching his annihilation of Jrue Holiday was a great trip down memory lane.