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@  Fury : (07 March 2014 - 01:50 AM) I think that tomorrow might be the most important game of the season so far. Between the Grizz and Pacers, we've done poorly against bully-ball teams.
@  Sir Thursday : (06 March 2014 - 07:04 PM) @huang: IMO, there's no reason why Fantasy Basketball valuations need to mirror actual player value. To me it's actually more fun when it's not necessarily that way...
@  08huangj : (06 March 2014 - 01:04 PM) Hey, is there anybody that thinks fantasy basketball's stupid? They currently are ranking D12 number 43 in the league!
@  Drew in Abilene : (06 March 2014 - 03:16 AM) Dudebro. I think the Rockets might be good...
@  YaoMan : (06 March 2014 - 02:57 AM) Now I'm not comparing this team to the Heat, but they won a title being near league worst in turnovers a couple of years ago...
@  Cooper : (06 March 2014 - 02:56 AM) the magic do only have 3 legit players and one olidipo didn't play which makes it hard to win even if the other team assist to turnover ratio is 0.
@  miketheodio : (06 March 2014 - 02:44 AM) this team is so odd. 22 turnovers and a double digit win.
@  Sir Thursday : (06 March 2014 - 02:34 AM) I thought Lin looked much better tonight than he did yesterday. At least against the Magic he was able to get to the basket - against the Heat he provided nothing in that department.
@  Dayak : (06 March 2014 - 02:11 AM) Lin is in his biggest slump at this moment. If he has some back problems, then just sit for a couple games and give Canaan some minutes to play.
@  Cooper : (06 March 2014 - 01:57 AM) bench haven't brought their A game to say the least.
@  Opasido : (06 March 2014 - 01:57 AM) I know Jeremy has some back problems but man he looks really bad out there. Looks totally out of place in the offense
@  Dan G : (06 March 2014 - 01:22 AM) I'm with Buckko. I'm hoping the Lakers win some more games now (except against us ofcourse). Although, it is funny seeing Kobe get delusional.
@  Buckko : (05 March 2014 - 10:11 PM) I just hope LA doesn't get exum, jabaria, embiid, wiggins, or Noah Voleh.
@  feelingsuper... : (05 March 2014 - 06:34 PM) It's great to see the Lakers getting destroyed and Kobe get delusional in his old age. I have no sympathy for either.
@  SadLakerFan : (05 March 2014 - 07:27 AM) In other news Lakers give up 132 to the Pelicans and Kobe says "revenge will be sweet and quick".
@  08huangj : (05 March 2014 - 04:52 AM) Whoohoo
@  MrLobble : (05 March 2014 - 04:02 AM) I'm not sure of the NBA rules, but I think you can't advance the ball to half if you've already inbounded it... So basically, we would have gotten the ball on the side and probably have gotten an 8sec count. I just don't get not advancing it in the beginning--unless everyone just assumed the heat would foul right away
@  majik19 : (05 March 2014 - 03:58 AM) I was wondering the exact same thing when he threw that awful lob
@  Opasido : (05 March 2014 - 03:51 AM) That is an excellent question and I have no clue
@  MrLobble : (05 March 2014 - 03:45 AM) I think Harden threw that pass because he was about to get an 8 second violation. In hindsight, why didn't we call a timeout to advance the ball after the make is the question?

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The Rockets Daily – February 28, 2014


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#1 Red94

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    Posted 28 February 2014 - 01:40 PM

    New post: The Rockets Daily – February 28, 2014
    By: mitchell felker

    In what might be the most insightful and accurate piece I've read all year, Rob Mahoney of the Point Forward makes the case for the Rockets as contenders for the title this June.

    Normally when I use articles for the Daily, I try to find the one paragraph that sums up what you, the reader, need to know.  But with this one there is just too much good information to cut and paste.  I practically need to rip the whole article.  Any red-blooded Rockets fan should really click the link and soak up what Mahoney has to say.  But for those that just want the CliffsNotes, allow me to try.

    Quote:

    Once reframed in that light, the Rockets are ninth in defense this season and sixth since Jan. 1 — a stark difference from Houston’s No. 19 ranking in points allowed per game. The Rockets’ contagious style encourages opponents to fuel the game’s pace, but Houston has managed to keep things in check by playing the best transition defense in the league, according to Synergy Sports. The Rockets have maintained the impossible balance of attacking the offensive glass while still getting back to defend. Beverley, forward Chandler Parsons and guard Jeremy Lin, in particular, have a great sense of when to retreat. It also doesn’t hurt that Howard and Asik — two of the NBA’s better offensive rebounders — can hang around to compete for boards on their own, an act that can delay or prevent a fast break. (...)

    That approach has created the illusion of three-point reliance. In reality, however, Houston has the inside-out balance to rival that of any team. Along with leading the NBA in three-point attempts, the Rockets rank third in the percentage of points drawn from free throws. Behind Harden’s drives and Howard’s finishes, they are fourth in percentage of points scored in the paint. In tandem, that means “easy points” account for the greatest cut (68.4 percent) among prospective playoff teams. In that framing, the Rockets’ three-point gunning is simply a way to pitch an already effective unit over the top.

    There's really little I can add to what Mahoney has to say as to why the Rockets are true contenders.  They have the stars and statistical resume required historically to win a title.  And I realize fans are a little down after another loss to the Clippers (who just became more daunting), which only proved that the Rockets desperately need to keep winning and make the three-seed their own so as to avoid a first-round match-up with Los Angeles.  That will not be easy in the minefield that is the next month.  March will be the Rockets toughest month of the season in regards to top-flight talent, with games against the Pacers, Blazers, Thunder, Bulls, Clippers and two against the Heat. 

    But if the Rockets can manage these next four weeks without a prolonged slump, they should be right where they want to be heading into April, which is shaping up to be one of the easier months on the schedule.

    Trimester Awards - Marc Stein released his picks for the second-trimester superlatives.  Michael Carter-Williams (ROY), Taj Gibson (6th-man) and coach Jeff Hornacek (COY) were all pretty obvious choices for their respective awards.  But his pick for Defensive Player of the Second Trimester may surprise some folks, Houston's own Dwight Howard.

    Quote:

    And since the calendar flipped to 2014, Houston actually sports the league's sixth-best team D, allowing just 101.3 points per 100 possessions. (...)

    But this is really all about Howard's turn to be recognized for the one-man wrecking crew he still very much is defensively. Especially when you remember that Houston is by no means blessed with the sort of defensive quality on the perimeter that Indiana can field with Paul George, George Hill and Lance Stephenson flanking Hibbert.

    I've made this argument before but it warrants saying again.  Roy Hibbert is a fine player and very deserving of the real award at the end of the season, but his degree of difficulty is much lower than what Howard is asked to do for the Houston Rockets.  Besides the three wing players listed by Stein, Hibbert also has a battering-ram David West at power forward to help deter would-be slashers from the painted area.

    Howard still isn't the one-man defensive unit he was in Orlando, although he has had noticeable improvement in his lateral agility and overall athleticism even since arriving in Houston.  For Howard to ever get back to being the default candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, his perimeter teammates must step-up the pressure on the wings.  And in their defense, they (read: James Harden) have looked much better in the last few weeks.  But you can't deny the Pacers' numbers this season; this year will ultimately go to Hibbert.

    Patience Young Grasshopper - Through the first two months of the season Donatas Motiejunas was averaging only eight minutes per game.  Even when Omer Asik started missing games, it was five whole weeks before D-Mo finally started seeing an uptick in minutes.  Since the January 15 meeting against the New Orleans Pelicans, Motiejunas has averaged just over 20 minutes a game; the Rockets are 15-4 during that stretch.  Jonathan Feigen highlights what's been different for him since the new year.

    Quote:

    Motiejunas became determined to demonstrate how desperately he wanted a place in the Rockets rotation. Almost defiantly, he refused to take days off, not just to improve, but to leave no questions. He arrived at 9:30 for noon practices, lifting by 10, shooting at 11 and staying after for more.

    “I wanted to never give them a reason not to play me,” he said. “If I stopped to work, they could say, ‘Oh, he gave up. He’s weak mentally.’”

    Instead, Rockets coaches repeatedly reminded him that his chance could come.

    “If you hang in there, things will go your way,” McHale said. “The problem with these guys is every day of their lives, someone told them how great they are. Then they hit adversity… They’re like, ‘what’s this?’ It’s called the NBA. It’s not perfect. It’s not always great. Sometimes when you’re a 20-year-old kid, you have to earn your time. He worked hard. Now, he’s reaping the benefits.”

    I always assumed that McHale is just harder on young players than he is on veterans.  After all, he was hesitant to give Terrence Jones any run and even did the same thing with Kevin Love in Minnesota.  McHale is old-school and had to earn his way into the starting rotation on the Celtics despite being one of the best power forwards of all-time.  Although it sounds like D-Mo's problem was his attitude.  But since turning things around a few weeks ago, his minutes have slowly started to rise to the point that he's almost splitting the power forward minutes evenly with Terrence Jones.

    And during that stretch something has become obvious with Motiejunas: he just plays basketball like a professional.  Whereas Jones' raw talent may ultimately raise his ceiling higher than D-Mo's due to his defense or athleticism, right now Motiejunas is just so much more polished at this point in their careers.  He's got the savvy moves around the basket and never misses a backdoor cut, but the thing that really stands out is the way he abuses mismatches.

    Motiejunas doesn't have the ball in his hands often, but when he does he like to look for weak-spots.  There was a play in the first half against the Clippers when Dwight was posted up on the right block and D-Mo cut to the hoop from the backside.  When Darren Collison was the only Clip to pick-up the cut, Motiejunas immediately pinned Collison under the basket and called for the ball; even on TV he could be heard yelling "Dwight! Dwight!".  Howard fed him the ball and D-Mo got the easy lay-in.  Later when Hedo Turkoglu checked into the game for the Clippers, just about every time D-Mo got his hands on the ball he immediately moved it to whoever Turkoglu was guarding.  And the two times Turkoglu tried covering Motiejunas out on the wing, the big Lithuanian immediately attacked the basket, scoring once.

    It seems as though Kevin McHale likes to test the resolve of his young guys to see if they're ready for the ups-and-downs of life in the NBA before rewarding them with playing time.  He pushed D-Mo and despite the brief period of self-pity, Motiejunas pushed back.  And now that McHale knows what he has in him, it just adds the bevy of options to choose from in his versatile frontcourt.

    Speaking Of Those Options - Greg Smith has barely played this year due to a knee injury he suffered back in November.  And now it appears he will be out for several more weeks.

    Quote:

    Rockets center Greg Smith, unable to overcome the knee issues that have given him trouble since November, will have arthroscopic knee surgery to address the problem, a person with knowledge of the decision said on Thursday.

    Apparently Smith will only miss a month following surgery, but I have a hard time believing he'll suit-up again this season.  When the injury happened my first thought was that he shredded his knee.  I was then shocked when they announced that it was just a sprain, but it appears that it was more than that.  And with the development of Jones and Motiejunas, Smith has become somewhat expendable if not unneeded.  He doesn't have the overall skills or floor-spacing ability of Motiejunas and he does most of the same things as Jones, but not quite as well.  Barring an injury to one of Houston's current frontcourt rotation, the Rockets would be better to shelve Smith for the rest of the season and let him start the summer strong.

    ICYMI - I don't know how this one slipped through the cracks, and normally I wouldn't use material that is more than a week old, but since Kevin Pelton's piece answering the question "Is Dwight Howard Still Elite?" is an ESPN Insider article, I thought I would provide a few notes on it for those who aren't so privileged.

    Quote:

    So where does that leave Howard overall? It's tough for any center in the league to match his combination of offense and defense. While Roy Hibbert of the Indiana Pacers has supplanted Howard as the NBA's top defensive player, Hibbert is a far less efficient scorer.

    The same is true of other top defensive centers, while the best scorers (including DeMarcus Cousins of the Sacramento Kings) are weaker than Howard defensively. In terms of performance at both ends, Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah might have the best case to counter Howard -- he rates slightly better by the per-minute component of my WARP system, but Howard is far better in terms of PER.

    First, the good: Howard has a .593 true shooting percentage, tops for all five-men by a significant margin.  And his adjusted-TS% is tied with only Chris Bosh as the top center.  Defensively, the team has jumped from 16th last year to ninth this year in opponents effective field-goal percentage.  Also, opponents are only shooting 47.4% at the rim against Howard.

    And now, the bad:  That 47.4% shooting at the rim is down from the 45.7 mark he put up as the key figure in Kirk Goldsberry's "The Dwight Effect", which covered the best rim protectors in the league.  Pelton also points out that the 47.4% mark, despite being well above average, is outside of the top-20 rim protectors (Although he also points out the Rockets' "iffy" perimeter D doesn't help his case).  And as for his post-ups, well...

    Quote:

    Howard remains one of the league's most inefficient post scorers. According to Synergy Sports Technology, his 0.762 points per post-up ranks 22nd among the 24 players with at least 200 post-up plays. Howard's still-poor free throw shooting brings that figure down, but during his 2010-11 campaign -- when he finished second in MVP voting -- Howard made 50.3 percent of his shots off post-ups, as compared with 45.3 percent this season.

    That number has surely improved since the new year, where Howard has been the most dominant he's been in at least three years.  And whether the form he's shown of late is just temporary and he reverts back to his early season form (unlikely), Howard remains one of the top centers in the Association.  So while there is now an argument about who is the best big-man where before there was only one answer, the fact remains that Dwight is still elite.


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    #2 Sir Thursday

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    Posted 28 February 2014 - 02:07 PM

    The timing of Mahoney's article reminds me very much of this. Since Lowe wrote that, the Warriors took a nose-dive and are now fighting for their playoff lives. This is why I've been cautious of heaping too much praise on the Rockets after their recent good fortune - people are far less inclined to make rational analyses about teams who have had extremely good or bad recent performance.

     

    While I liked the article and thought Mahoney has got quite a bit right, the one bit that didn't ring true was the part where he said:

     

    Between those stalled possessions and the typical variance of three-point shooting, this is not a team impervious to lulls. What Houston is impervious to, however, is solution. Their success is not gadgetry or regular-season illusion. It’s not as simple as the opponent’s needing to get back on defense or crowd the three-point line.

     

    I think we've seen the formula for slowing the Rockets down - it's the way that the Grizzlies and Pacers play defence. You [a] get back on transition defence and [b] deny ball penetration so that help defence isn't necessary and three point shooters don't end up open. For all that the Rockets are picking up as a defensive unit, I do not trust them to win games if their offence isn't clicking. And against either Memphis or Indiana you can pretty much guarantee that it won't be.

     

    ST


    Edited by Sir Thursday, 28 February 2014 - 02:09 PM.

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    #3 Mitchell Felker

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      Posted 28 February 2014 - 03:13 PM

      I would argue that the only two teams capable of playing that type of defense are the Pistons and Pacers.  Who else has that kind of size and defensive talent to protect the rim enough so as to allow the wings to press Houston's shooters?  Even the Clippers didn't have an answer. 

       

      And, I think Mahoney's point in your selection was that the Rockets are not a "jump-shooting" team.  They're an attacking team that shoots a lot of threes as a result of their slash and kick.  The shooting can go cold, but that's not what the true heart of the team is.  So if it does go cold, they still have option A.  Jump shooting teams only have more cold jump shots. 

       

      Most teams have to choose, get back and crowd the lane or push out and crowd the shooters.  Going back to my original point, no other teams have the Hibbert/West or Gasol/Randolph types to be able to pull-off both. 


      Edited by Mitchell Felker, 28 February 2014 - 03:19 PM.

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      #4 Mitchell Felker

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        Posted 28 February 2014 - 03:22 PM

        Its like when teams say to beat Peyton Manning you have to get in his face and hit him.  Well, yea, thats how you beat any quarterback. 

        The Griz and Pacers are two of the best defensive teams in the league.  Of course they would have a formula for slowing down the Rockets. 

         

        But they also have trouble scoring.  So ultimately it comes down to if Houston can make stops and slow them down enough to win games


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        #5 NorEastern

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          Posted 28 February 2014 - 03:23 PM



          There certainly have been interesting improvements in the Rockets since the beginning of the new year. Most interesting I believe is the defensive improvement. This year the Rockets possess the 6th best pace adjusted defense in the NBA. Why is that you might ask? I would propose that: Howard's confidence in his athleticism is finally returning after the back surgery; Asik has returned and is providing serious paint protection when Howard is sitting; D-Mo has matured enough to become a plus defender.

          The first two are pretty much obvious. However consider D-Mo's defense. He has grasped situational defense, positional defense, rotational defense and just basically knows every moment where his main mark is on the floor. A light has turned on in his head. Pretty remarkable.

          And so what can Houston do if faced with the likes of MEM and IND? Simple, revert to the TT. While it hurts offensively, neither of those teams have a truly functional offense without their two bigs being effective when on the floor together.


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          #6 Buckko

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            Posted 28 February 2014 - 05:14 PM

            <br /><br /><p>I have to mention the value of keeping Greg Smith, even though his ceiling is not as high as demo and jones. His floor has never been low. You can't teach size and smith has always been a reliable big body for effecient points and rebounds. Cut him and every team with front court depth issues would pick him up in a heartbeat (blazers and clippers come to mind) . Best bet, unless the injury is career ending, is to let him heal, resign him to vet minimum in the offseason , and role with a stronger bench mob next season.</p>
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            #7 Dayak

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            Posted 28 February 2014 - 05:30 PM

            Great read Mitchell, i always love your daily just like how i love to read Jeby's daily. I think we are not winning the title this season, tbh and 2nd round exit is fair enough for me.
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            #8 Buckko

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              Posted 28 February 2014 - 06:51 PM

              If we stay in 2nd-3rd seed and let OKC and LA knock one or the other out, I would say we have a great chance of making the conference finals.
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              #9 Texan Ensemble

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                Posted 28 February 2014 - 07:50 PM



                Hamilton looks like a great pickup, albeit its just a two game sample size. His athleticism and tempo are greater than both Caspi and Garcia, and, at least for right now, is shooting the three at much a better rate, as both Caspi and Garcia are in big shooting ruts. Going back to his athleticism and tempo advantage over those two, if all three were evenly skilled on defense, that greater athleticism and tempo should increase our team defense when that second unit is on the floor.

                I would not be surprised if McHale gives D-Mo a look in the starting lineup over TJones these next couple games versus Detroit and Orlando. TJones seems to be in a bit of slump, a few times he received the ball about 18 feet out and you could tell he had little confidence in his jump shot in a close game vs the Clips, which was a stark contrast in our comfortable wins vs lesser teams. That lack of confidence led to him stalling the offense and creating turnovers and lost possessions.

                Speaking of lost possessions. Our turnover rate seems to be getting worse when it should be getting better. We can make a deep run with a bottom third free throw percentage or bottom third turnover rate, but not both.

                Also on lost possessions, there were two things that really caught my eye versus the Clips. We got beat around the rim a lot, either missing contested shots within 3 feet and/or giving up way too many offensive rebounds. Secondly, I have been bashing Harden a lot all year because he seems to hold the ball too long and kill the offense...he did that too many times vs the Clips, but so did others, and there was also very little off the ball movement when we were in a 3/4 or half court offense. We have to develop a better than average half court offense in the playoffs, we can not just rely on running every possession, it just isn't doable.

                I wont get too down on that loss, since it was the 5th game of a road trip, but I think it worth noting that we did lose to the two best teams and almost lost to the Suns...all three playoff teams. We NEED to go .500 over the next couple weeks, at the very least, with Heat, Thunder, Spurs, Pacers etc on the schedule. We can from third to 6th quick. The Mavs are streaking, and the Warriors, Suns and Grizz are going to make runs. Do not get comfortable Red Nation...we have been playing a cupcake schedule since Jan 1, things are about to get real.


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                #10 Sir Thursday

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                Posted 01 March 2014 - 01:13 AM

                Its like when teams say to beat Peyton Manning you have to get in his face and hit him.  Well, yea, thats how you beat any quarterback. 

                The Griz and Pacers are two of the best defensive teams in the league.  Of course they would have a formula for slowing down the Rockets. 

                 

                But they also have trouble scoring.  So ultimately it comes down to if Houston can make stops and slow them down enough to win games

                 

                I'd argue it's not quite the same as your analogy. If you put the Spurs or the Thunder up against either of those teams I would back their offences to be able to produce at a high level regardless. But IMO the Rockets offence is a lot more fragile - they rely on penetration so much to set up their (non-Howard) offence and if you shut that down it all collapses in a heap. The impression I get (not backed up by any numbers - might be an interesting project to confirm/deny this hypothesis) is that reducing the number of drives per game has an outsize effect on the Rockets compared to the rest of the league.

                 

                ST


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                #11 PhillyCheese

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                  Posted 01 March 2014 - 08:18 AM

                  The Thunder and Spurs both move the ball extremely well but their offenses are different.  The Thunder have the two best offensive players with one being the best player this year (arguably), and they have a solid defense which leads to lots of transition baskets.  They and Miami are similar in that way.  Spurs are a totally different type of offense.  I think the Rox's offense is built more like the Spurs, inside out, move the ball, but the Rox don't screen as much and rely more on beating their man without help.


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                  #12 Sir Thursday

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                  Posted 01 March 2014 - 12:38 PM

                  The Thunder and Spurs both move the ball extremely well but their offenses are different.  The Thunder have the two best offensive players with one being the best player this year (arguably), and they have a solid defense which leads to lots of transition baskets.  They and Miami are similar in that way.  Spurs are a totally different type of offense.  I think the Rox's offense is built more like the Spurs, inside out, move the ball, but the Rox don't screen as much and rely more on beating their man without help.

                   

                  Yeah, I agree. Both work differently, but both are capable of putting up decent efficiency no matter what. I'm not sure the same is true for the Rockets.


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                  #13 Steven

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                    Posted 02 March 2014 - 08:17 AM

                    I don't know if anyone else has seen this.



                    Funny stuff from before the game with the Kings. Kid gets a nice applause for his move on Howard.
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