Jump to content


Toggle shoutbox Shoutbox Open the Shoutbox in a popup

@  bboley24 : (09 January 2014 - 03:53 AM) How long have you been watching these Rockets Haze? New to the team?
@  HazeWinkle : (09 January 2014 - 02:00 AM) they are getting beat by the lakers.
@  thenit : (09 January 2014 - 01:55 AM) We are so cold from 3s the past month
@  HazeWinkle : (09 January 2014 - 01:24 AM) rtockets are full of idiots knocking the ball away from each other on a rebound
@  thenit : (09 January 2014 - 01:20 AM) They are cheating off brewer so much that's it's almost 4 on 5 when we have the ball
@  RollingWave : (08 January 2014 - 03:19 AM) I think something like this would work, objective for Bulls mainly to get under the tax, maybe a 2nd thrown in by either us or Toronto to them.
@  RollingWave : (08 January 2014 - 03:19 AM) http://espn.go.com/n...tradeId=pjeyjzk
@  feelingsuper... : (08 January 2014 - 03:03 AM) Dunleavy would be a great pick up and a good guy from the locker room to the 3 point line.
@  RollingWave : (08 January 2014 - 01:06 AM) Woj report that we are trying to trade Dmo (expected) , clutchfan rumor that we are trying to get Dunlevy (logical)
@  majik19 : (08 January 2014 - 12:14 AM) No way Houston goes for Boozer. Would Houston make a play for Bynum? I doubt it - we don't need two injured backup centers. And his attitude would not sit well with this team.
@  rm90025 : (07 January 2014 - 05:34 PM) Also wonder if Bynum ends up with the Heat or the Clippers. That could give either team a game changing lift over the competition.
@  rm90025 : (07 January 2014 - 05:33 PM) I wonder if Bulls move Boozer now and if Houston gets involved.
@  rocketrick : (07 January 2014 - 10:38 AM) Luol Deng is an Unrestricted Free Agent after this season. Did the Bulls receive Max Value for him in this trade?
@  Dayak : (07 January 2014 - 05:59 AM) The Cavs turned 24 games of Andrew Bynum into an All-Star small forward in Deng. The Bulls will save $15M+, get below tax, get future 1st.
@  Dayak : (07 January 2014 - 05:59 AM) Brian Windhorst:
@  Buckko : (04 January 2014 - 09:42 PM) If Hazewinkle used mediocre at best to describe the rockets right now, I wonder what his opinions on the Texans were.
@  Opasido : (04 January 2014 - 08:49 PM) Shouldve crushed the knicks though. They were on B2B and melo injured, rockets were pretty refreshed. oh well
@  rocketrick : (04 January 2014 - 02:48 PM) If the Rockets are truly "mediocre at best" per Hazewinkle, what does that mean for the rest of the NBA (22/30 teams with lower winning % than us)?
@  RollingWave : (04 January 2014 - 12:44 PM) With Lin, I notice he looked like he took a hit or something early in the 3rd. that and/or maybe Tyson Chandler figured out something with how he play screens and out smarted him
@  RollingWave : (04 January 2014 - 12:43 PM) for all the crap he took Garcia played pretty well this game, Smith was really quite but managed to defend the paint pretty well too

Photo

James Harden Leads all 2-guards in WARP

James Harden

  • Please log in to reply
11 replies to this topic

#1 majik19

majik19

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 58 posts

    Posted 07 January 2014 - 06:34 PM

    This will probably show up in today's daily a little later, but I wanted to point out that James Harden was ranked today by Brad Doolittle on ESPN Insider as the top 2 guard in the NBA, using WARP and True WARP - "a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results." There has been a lot of Harden hating on this forum lately, and this article serves as a reminder of how great a player we really have.

     

    Here is the link to the article (ESPN Insider only): http://insider.espn....-guards-2013-14

     

    James Harden had 14.4 "True WARP" and 4.7 WARP, best among all shooting guards and 13th in the league. 

     

    The drop-off is pretty dramatic after Harden. Wade is 2nd with 12.5 True WARP and Ginobli is 3rd with 8.8.

    Harden is almost a full win above the next guy in regular WARP, as Wesley Matthews ranks second with 3.8 WARP, closely followed by Ginobli (3.7) and Wade (3.4). 

     

    I know WARP isn't a perfect stat, but it does actually take into account defense, and Harden still tops it. Some may say this really speaks to the dearth of talent at the shooting guard position in the NBA, but in a 5 player lineup it sure helps to have the best at his position. 

     


    • 0

    #2 feelingsupersonic

    feelingsupersonic

      Officer

    • Moderators
    • 1,518 posts
    • LocationHouston, TX

    Posted 07 January 2014 - 06:43 PM

    Here it is:

    1. James Harden, Houston Rockets
    TrueWARP: 14.4 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.7 | Overall WARP rank: 13
    2. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
    TrueWARP: 12.5 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.4 | Overall rank: 37
    3. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
    TrueWARP: 8.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.7 | Overall rank: 27
    4. Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers
    TrueWARP: 7.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.8 | Overall rank: 24
    5. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
    TrueWARP: 7.4 | 2013-14 WARP: Minus-0.2 | Overall rank: 323
    6. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
    TrueWARP: 6.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.1 | Overall rank: 75
    7. Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
    TrueWARP: 5.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.5 | Overall rank: 61
    8. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
    TrueWARP: 5.6 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.6 | Overall rank: 102
    9. Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs
    TrueWARP: 5.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.1 | Overall rank: 76
    10. Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves
    TrueWARP: 5.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.6 | Overall rank: 96

    Next five: Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks; Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors; Louis Williams, Atlanta Hawks; Marcus Thornton, Sacramento Kings; Mike Dunleavy Jr., Chicago Bulls

    Also notable: Lance Stephenson, Indiana Pacers (17); Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans (18); Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards (25); Joe Johnson, Brooklyn Nets (26); Iman Shumpert, New York Knicks (31)

    As a long time Rockets fan I feel lucky we have Harden and he hasn't even entered his prime!
    • 0

    #3 thejohnnygold

    thejohnnygold

      Veteran

    • Moderators
    • 2,361 posts
    • LocationAustin, TX

    Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:33 PM

    This ties in with other recent discussions including the crunch time talks.  From Vorped.com I've pulled some of James Harden's shot charts.  I found them pretty interesting (no surprise there).  Check it out:

     

    OK.  This is Harden's overall shot chart for the season.  Clearly, he favors one side of the floor versus the other--which makes sense being a lefty.  The website allows you to separate the shot charts by quarter.  I won't post them all, but it is quarters 2 and 3 where he struggles.  1st and 4th quarter play is like night and day comparatively.  Check out his 4th quarter chart:

     

    Nice.  This is what you want your star player's 4th Q shot chart to look like.  Aside from a combined 3-13 in the 2 red zones he is killing it in the 4th overall (crunch time is different--as we all know).  One could argue that crunch time doesn't matter if Harden isn't making all these shots en route to that highly-scrutinized microcosm.  Here is a different look at the same numbers, but more consolidated:

     

    So much green!  There is balance in his shooting.  37 at the rim, 28 from mid, and 31 from long range.  His percentages are solid (even the 43% from mid) and he is making 55% on a total of 96 shots (which doesn't count his ft's!).

     

    Now, I realize this doesn't account for turnovers, but I'd say even with that included Harden is shouldering this team to the finish line night in and night out.  It must be all that energy he saves from not playing defense.....I kid...I kid... :lol:


    • 1

    #4 timetodienow1234567

    timetodienow1234567

      Senior Member

    • Members
    • PipPipPipPipPip
    • 1,803 posts
    • LocationAlabama

    Posted 08 January 2014 - 12:10 AM

    13th best in the league sounds about right.
    • 0

    Why so Serious? :D


    #5 thejohnnygold

    thejohnnygold

      Veteran

    • Moderators
    • 2,361 posts
    • LocationAustin, TX

    Posted 08 January 2014 - 12:35 AM

    An article I just found at Dreamshake: LINK.  Apparently they are thinking about clutch time as well in regards to Harden.  Interesting findings...


    • 0

    #6 txtdo1411

    txtdo1411

      Newbie

    • Members
    • Pip
    • 26 posts
    • LocationHouston, TX

    Posted 09 January 2014 - 05:39 PM

    An article I just found at Dreamshake: LINK.  Apparently they are thinking about clutch time as well in regards to Harden.  Interesting findings...

     

    Very interesting read JG. This should certainly spark debate. From a pure numbers standpoint, Harden iso seems to be as good of, if not better, option as anything. It doesn't surprise me, but it does somewhat fail the eye test. Maybe because when it doesn't work the results are generally so ugly. Flailing arms and falling to the ground is pretty hard to forget.... Especially in crunch time situations.


    • 0

    #7 majik19

    majik19

      Rookie

    • Members
    • PipPip
    • 58 posts

      Posted 09 January 2014 - 05:58 PM

      I would like to point out that these numbers were before he went on this recent 3 game tear. 


      • 0

      #8 thejohnnygold

      thejohnnygold

        Veteran

      • Moderators
      • 2,361 posts
      • LocationAustin, TX

      Posted 09 January 2014 - 06:22 PM

      Yeah, the one thing I think they may have overlooked is the context of end of game iso versus iso overall.  They gathered their numbers using the entirety of each game's iso attempts.  While that is a good way to get a larger sample it skews the results in the area we are concerned about--end of game.  The reason for this is during the majority of the game the defense doesn't know Harden is going to go iso.  They have to defend more evenly.  At the end of the game, Houston (and Harden) has become as predictable as the sunrise which allows defenses to focus in on Harden and severely limit his otherwise effective iso game.

       

      A good analogy would be in baseball.  A hitter has a certain chance of hitting the ball at each at bat.  He knows the pitcher has 4 different pitches he can throw and he has to try and read the pitch and make the right decision.  Now, if the hitter knows what pitch is coming his chances increase substantially (I don't know the numbers, but I think it is safe to say we all agree on this).  This is why teams have tried to steal pitching signals since pitching signals were invented.  It gives an advantage.

       

      I think I have mentioned it once before; although, I can't remember what for now.  Tony Gwynn, after retiring from baseball, gave an interview in which he finally told people why he was such a good hitter.  He was born with 20-10 vision.  He could literally see the ball coming out of the pitcher's hand, where their fingers were, and the rotation on the ball.  He knew what was coming and was able to be a very successful hitter for his entire career.  I just think that is really cool.

       

      Our offense at the end of games is like a telegraphed pass from a quarterback.  The defense already has a head start because they know where you're going.  It's not that Harden is bad at iso's.  The problem is teams know he is going to do it and defend it much better.  The problem is further compounded when adding in the referee factor.  Harden's efficiency comes largely through getting whistles which seem to get swallowed at the end of games.  This further decreases the expected value of a Harden iso play.

       

      It has been noted that our early season schedule (and poor health) has severely limited our practice opportunities.  Perhaps in the coming months the coaches and players can begin working on improvement in this area.


      • 0

      #9 Jatman20

      Jatman20

        Newbie

      • Members
      • Pip
      • 20 posts

        Posted 09 January 2014 - 10:33 PM

        Excellent posts johnnygold...thanks for the link. I don't like the term "Hero-Ball".....I'm one that calls it a "Ball-Hog" and I take the whole game as the span of time. Lately I feel Harden has been mistaken for Carmelo. [USG 30.9%]........[.%Ast 17%]..........[Ast 2.8 /game]......[FGA 20.8 /game].......[FGM 9.4/game]. Like light entering a Black Hole; basketball is passed to that individual....chances are not good a pass comes next. D12 is not the 2nd star needed to finish games due to his FT shooting; but Harden has showed me enough to feel confident that he will pass to the next star we add.

        Should be good.....Howard/Harden/Parsons/next 10-15 max player. If LeBron/Bosh/D-Wade can do it......our guys show promise. If our players get out of this mini slump from 3 point land......Harden will find them.....even at the end of the game!! As in baseball hitting is contagious; so is outside shooting in basketball.

        Edited by Jatman20, 09 January 2014 - 10:36 PM.

        • 0

        #10 shirtless

        shirtless

          Newbie

        • Members
        • Pip
        • 14 posts

          Posted 10 January 2014 - 12:32 AM

          Very interesting read JG. This should certainly spark debate. From a pure numbers standpoint, Harden iso seems to be as good of, if not better, option as anything. It doesn't surprise me, but it does somewhat fail the eye test. Maybe because when it doesn't work the results are generally so ugly. Flailing arms and falling to the ground is pretty hard to forget.... Especially in crunch time situations.

           

          The author of this piece misinterpreted how points per possession is calculated. The statistic considers free throws as a result of a possession. The author does not and adds free throw points on top of points per possession, thus double counting Harden's free throws. For some reason he doesn't do this to the team PPP overall.

           

          The original stats he gave are all that needs to be looked at. Houston PPP = 1.07. Harden PPP on ISO = 0.92, on PnR as ball handler = 0.87. In all situations, Harden ISO or off PnR is less efficient than what the team does overall. As thejohnnygold mentioned, the efficiency of these two plays is likely to decrease during crunch time because the opposing team knows they're coming. 


          • 0

          #11 Sir Thursday

          Sir Thursday

            Advanced Member

          • Members
          • PipPipPipPip
          • 857 posts
          • LocationUnited Kingdom

          Posted 10 January 2014 - 02:04 AM

          The author of this piece misinterpreted how points per possession is calculated. The statistic considers free throws as a result of a possession. The author does not and adds free throw points on top of points per possession, thus double counting Harden's free throws. For some reason he doesn't do this to the team PPP overall.

           

          The original stats he gave are all that needs to be looked at. Houston PPP = 1.07. Harden PPP on ISO = 0.92, on PnR as ball handler = 0.87. In all situations, Harden ISO or off PnR is less efficient than what the team does overall. As thejohnnygold mentioned, the efficiency of these two plays is likely to decrease during crunch time because the opposing team knows they're coming. 

           

          Agreed, unfortunately the stats are a bit off in that article.

           

          A bug bear of mine (and one I've written an article or two about for the site at various points) is the overuse of averages where distributions are more applicable, and I think this is a situation where that applies. What you really want to do is apply an analysis similar to the one I did in the second of those two articles to a crunch-time situation. I think that would give a better (and more nuanced) answer to the question at hand than using PPP, which is more useful in situations where you can rely on the Law of Large Numbers to make expected value the dominant indicator of strategy. 

           

          ST


          • 0

          #12 thenit

          thenit

            Junior Member

          • Members
          • PipPipPip
          • 407 posts

            Posted 10 January 2014 - 02:44 AM

            I forgot which thread it was, but in one in the forum we were dismal when we were behind 5poionts or less the last few minutes of the game. It was like 0.4 PPP something like that. Small sample size since it's excludes when we are up etc. harden is responsible for most of the possessions at those situations. He might be decently efficient but in crunch time he has been stopped because we are predictable as JG suggested. Hopefully harden will trust his teammates a little more to make it less predictable and maybe just go ISO thej last two or three possession if he wants to but not earlier in the game.
            • 0





            Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: James Harden

            0 user(s) are reading this topic

            0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users