Jump to content


Toggle shoutbox Shoutbox Open the Shoutbox in a popup

@  Dayak : (05 December 2013 - 06:04 AM) J.R. Harden, lol.
@  HazeWinkle : (05 December 2013 - 05:09 AM) @feeling super he had only 15 pts 4-11 shooting which could be put on jh or km he had 5 to and he got blocked about 5 times by guys not known for their defense
@  thenit : (05 December 2013 - 04:35 AM) linsanity, hard yo get that label off, anyone with that king of usage rate has high turnovers including harden, Kobe etc
@  thenit : (05 December 2013 - 04:34 AM) Jeremy got that label in
@  thenit : (05 December 2013 - 04:33 AM) FSS agree to some extent but when hardens shot aren't falling, he has no Impact on the defensive floor and becomes a huge liability, doesn't happen every day when he has a goose egg
@  thenit : (05 December 2013 - 04:32 AM) Fuss
@  RollingWave : (05 December 2013 - 04:32 AM) Remember when folks said our turnover thing was all on Jeremy? yeah I don't either
@  feelingsuper... : (05 December 2013 - 04:24 AM) Dwight did not get stopped, are you joking? They should have ran through him more but hindsight is 20/20. How many more games wil Harden go 0% from three point land?
@  CanSayNOTC : (05 December 2013 - 03:27 AM) when 3 of your best 5.....:D
@  HazeWinkle : (05 December 2013 - 03:20 AM) excuse,excuses 22 to it dont matter who was playing and dwight howard got stopped by pumlee
@  pharmag : (05 December 2013 - 03:16 AM) When 3 of your best 7 players are out its not entirely surprising that the team is struggling....
@  HazeWinkle : (05 December 2013 - 03:13 AM) i see a five game losing streak in store for them rockets.
@  Adi1008 : (05 December 2013 - 03:12 AM) The Rockets could potentially be on an eight game winning streak if they could win the easy games.
@  HazeWinkle : (05 December 2013 - 03:03 AM) omg isthis team great at turning the ball over
@  pharmag : (05 December 2013 - 03:00 AM) He is out with bruised thigh i thinki saw
@  HazeWinkle : (05 December 2013 - 02:59 AM) who knows maybe trade coming
@  CanSayNOTC : (05 December 2013 - 02:58 AM) Why Asik no minutes?
@  pharmag : (05 December 2013 - 02:54 AM) Don't breath too hard on the Phoenix players...it will be a foul...
@  HazeWinkle : (05 December 2013 - 02:44 AM) Is Dwight howard getting outplayed by pumlee tonight?
@  HazeWinkle : (05 December 2013 - 02:41 AM) ohh

Photo

The Stats Say: Even in the loaded West, the Rockets look fairly likely to earn a high playoff seed


  • Please log in to reply
7 replies to this topic

#1 Red94

Red94

    Advanced Member

  • Administrators
  • 710 posts

    Posted 04 December 2013 - 09:33 PM

    New post: The Stats Say: Even in the loaded West, the Rockets look fairly likely to earn a high playoff seed
    By: Justin Wehr

    west conf playoff probabilities as of dec 2013

    The chart above was produced using data from an excellent site called Sports Club Stats. The site predicts playoff seeding by simulating the rest of the NBA season millions of times. You can read about how the simulations work here, but I’ll give the gist. The simulations take into account performance to date, strength of schedule, performance of other teams in the division/conference, home vs. away, difficulty of the remaining schedule, and league tie breaker rules. Pretty much the only thing the simulations don’t account for are unpredictable things such as Derrick-Rose-like injuries, trades, or lineup changes.

    The detailed results of the simulations allow us to make specific statements like the following:

    • To be more likely than not to make the playoffs out of the Western Conference, the Rockets need to win at least 43 games.
      • 92% is the current estimated probability that the Rockets will win at least 43 games.
    • To comfortably earn a playoff spot (i.e., to have a >99% chance), the Rockets need to win at least 46 games.
      • 73% is the current estimated probability that the Rockets will win at least 46 games.
    • To be more likely than not to earn one of the top 4 seeds, the Rockets need to win at least 49 games.
      • Estimated 43% chance.
    • To comfortably earn one of the top 4 seeds, the Rockets need to win at least 53 games.
      • Estimated 11% chance.
    • To be more likely than not to earn the top seed in the West, the Rockets need to win at least 54 games.
      • Estimated 7% chance.
    • To have a >90% chance at earning the top seed in the West, the Rockets need to win at least 58 games.
      • Estimated 0.5% chance.
    • To have a >99% chance at earning the top seed in the West, the Rockets need to win at least 61 games.
      • Estimated 0.04% chance.

    Putting it all together graphically looks like this:

    rockets playoff probabilities as of dec 2013

    Overall, the Rockets are currently estimated to have a 47% chance of earning one of the top four seeds and a 22% chance of earning one of the top two seeds.

    I know people will question the small sample size – and it’s true that the estimates will become more precise as the season gets further along – but you’d be surprised at how clear of a picture you can get after 19 games of an NBA season. (MLB and NHL are a different story because their games are much more random.) If you don’t believe me, have a look at previous seasons (which are available in the sidebar of the NBA page). Teams have hot streaks and cold streaks, but it’s not often that you see an NBA team’s outlook dramatically change after 19 games.

    (Note: John Hollinger estimates playoff probabilities in a similar way [shown here; explained here] but I prefer the Sports Club Stats estimates because (1) my buddy Ken runs the site, so I’m biased, and (2) the estimates are much more detailed [e.g., showing expected seed and changes over time] and are derived from much larger simulations.)


    • 0

    #2 HazeWinkle

    HazeWinkle

      Newbie

    • Members
    • Pip
    • 31 posts

      Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:03 AM



      Rockets are a sixth seed at best no defense, turnover prone, and they are a bad free throw team


      • 0

      #3 Buckko

      Buckko

        Advanced Member

      • Members
      • PipPipPipPip
      • 892 posts

        Posted 05 December 2013 - 04:50 AM

        Is banning people allowed, yall know this is a laker fan intentionally trying to troll. Unless... is he an old magic fan on a vendetta? And the plot twists. 


        • 0

        #4 Steven

        Steven

          Senior Member

        • Members
        • PipPipPipPipPip
        • 1,201 posts

          Posted 05 December 2013 - 04:56 AM

          Is banning people allowed, yall know this is a laker fan intentionally trying to troll. Unless... is he an old magic fan on a vendetta? And the plot twists.

          I think Stewie got a new account.
          • 0

          #5 HazeWinkle

          HazeWinkle

            Newbie

          • Members
          • Pip
          • 31 posts

            Posted 05 December 2013 - 05:03 AM

            Is banning people allowed, yall know this is a laker fan intentionally trying to troll. Unless... is he an old magic fan on a vendetta? And the plot twists. 

            im a realist okc,clips,warriors,spurs and portland are all better than the rockets.  


            • 0

            #6 Buckko

            Buckko

              Advanced Member

            • Members
            • PipPipPipPip
            • 892 posts

              Posted 05 December 2013 - 05:38 AM

              Warriors are a curry jumpshot away from glass ankles breaking all over the floor. Clippers have no idea what D is and they don't even have the best Offense. Jury is still out on Portland because they have an easy scheduled and they have a history of hot starts and late season burn outs. OKC and SA are our real opponents with OKC not even hitting their stride yet IMO. Not to mention we are one of the few teams who has leaps and bounds to get better during the season due to our youth and chemistry growth... and health. We already have better records than LA and GS. But like I said we are all entitled to our own opinions.


              Edited by Buckko, 05 December 2013 - 05:39 AM.

              • 0

              #7 RudyT1995

              RudyT1995

                Rookie

              • Members
              • PipPip
              • 60 posts

                Posted 05 December 2013 - 07:25 AM

                im a realist okc,clips,warriors,spurs and portland are all better than the rockets.  

                 

                Didn't we beat Portland at Portland and make it look pretty easy?  Didn't we just beat the Spurs at San Antonio w/o our 6th man?  Did you know that Golden State has only beaten 1 team that currently has a winning record? 

                 

                The Clippers are as much of a mess on defense as we are. 

                 

                I think OKC is better than us, but their minuscule depth is a glaring weakness and could really hurt them.  

                 

                So far this season, we have endured the doomed twin towers experiment, Asik's sit-down, Beverley's injury, Harden's injury, Lin's injury, Parsons's injury,  and now Asik's injury, and Harden has had to keep playing through his injury even though it's pretty clear that he can't push off of his feet like he wants to.  Our expected rotation has barely played together and never at full health.

                 

                It's kind of tough to reach an informed verdict on this team when we haven't at all seen what it could be by the end of the season.  Who knows where this team will end up?


                • 0

                #8 Buckko

                Buckko

                  Advanced Member

                • Members
                • PipPipPipPip
                • 892 posts

                  Posted 05 December 2013 - 04:45 PM

                  Actually we have a #9 defense and getting better while the clippers have a terrible D. Our defensive problems are exaggerated.
                  • 0




                  0 user(s) are reading this topic

                  0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users