12 replies to this topic

[Sir Thursday]

By popular demand, the Schedule Analysis Thread returns (slightly belatedly)! For those unfamiliar with the concept, I break down the recent and upcoming schedule in a bid to gauge the temperature of how the team is doing and make a prediction about what their record will be at the end of the year.

 

Let me know what you think of how I've ordered it all - I'm open to feedback and will be moving teams between categories throughout the season if I think the circumstances merit it.

 

ST

 

 

Current Standings:

 

:

:

3. Oklahoma City (12-3)

4. LA Clippers (12-6) <-- Ahead because of conference seeding rules

5. Houston (13-5)

6. Denver (10-6)

7. Dallas (10-8)

8. Golden State (10-8)

 

 

Last 5 Games:

 

vs Minnesota (Won)

@ Memphis (Won)

vs Atlanta (Won)

vs Brooklyn (Won)

@ San Antonio (Won)

 

Actual Score: 5 out of 5

Expected Score: 2.75 out of 5

 

Next 5 Games:

 

@ Utah (3-15)

vs Phoenix (9-8)

vs Golden State (10-8)

vs Orlando (6-10)

@ Portland (14-3)

 

Expected Score: 3.75 out of 5

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Easy Wins (Expected: 100%):

 

Sacramento x4

Utah x3 (1-0)

Boston x2 (1-0)

Charlotte x2 (1-0)

Cleveland x2

Milwaukee x2

Orlando x2 

Philadelphia x2 (0-1)

 

Current Score: 3-1

Expected Score: 18-1

 

Favoured (Expected: 75%):

 

LA Lakers x4 (0-1)

New Orleans x4

Denver x3 (1-0)

Phoenix x3

Atlanta x2 (1-0)

Brooklyn x2 (1-0)

Chicago x2

Detroit x2

New York x2 (1-0)

Toronto x2 (1-0)

Washington x2

 

Current Score: 5-1

Expected Score: 22-6

 

Even (Expected: 50%):

 

Dallas x4 (1-1)

LA Clippers x4 (0-2)

Memphis x4 (1-0)

Minnesota x4 (1-0)

Portland x4 (1-0)

Golden State x3

 

Current Score: 4-3

Expected Score: 12-11

 

Underdogs (Expected: 25%):

 

Oklahoma City x4

San Antonio x4 (1-0)

Indiana x2

Miami x2

 

Current Score: 1-0

Expected Score: 3-9

 

 

Current Record: 13-5

Projected Record: 55-27

 

 

Other Methods:

 

Basketball Reference Forecast: 52-30

Hollinger Projection: 54-28

Edited by Sir Thursday, 03 December 2013 - 01:19 AM.

[Steven]

I would move Memphis, Minnesota, Portland, Golden State from Even to Favored. San Antonio, Indiana and OKC from underdogs to Even. The only team that this team is an underdog to is Miami.

[Buckko]

Well you might need to readjust your stats after tonight. 

[timetodienow1234567]

Lol.

[redfaithful]

As a public demand contributor, I am very thankful for the return of the schedule analysis!

[Sir Thursday]

I would move Memphis, Minnesota, Portland, Golden State from Even to Favored. San Antonio, Indiana and OKC from underdogs to Even. The only team that this team is an underdog to is Miami.

 

The question is, do you think we should expect to win 75% of games against the likes of the teams you're proposing to move to the favoured category? I'm not so sure. I was considering adjusting the percentages on some of these categories a little bit so that we could have a "Slight Favourite" category that's not quite so extreme (say 60%?). I'll have a think about moving those teams up to Even as well.

 

Well you might need to readjust your stats after tonight. 

 

I guess we'll see - according to my breakdown they needed to win 3.75 games out of that set of 5 to match expectations, so they might be able to make up for the loss if they win their next 4. The theory behind this method of analysis is that it aggregates results across a broader class so that the effect of a single poor performance is diminished. Still, it will certainly make the numbers in the "Easy Wins" category look like a bit more of a mess.

 

ST

[Steven]

Yes. The Rockets can easily win 3/4 against the teams I said move up to favored, and half against the teams moved up to even.

Edited by Steven, 04 December 2013 - 12:59 AM.

[Sir Thursday]

Alright, time for an (overdue) update! A few changes I think I need to make:

 

• Memphis: Even->Favoured [Wheels falling off these guys]


• Minnesota: Even->Favoured [I was on the fence about this because they always seem to play the Rockets well, but I can't justify putting them on even pegging at the moment]


• Easy Wins: 100% -> 90% [It has become apparent that the Rockets are not a team you would expect to put away such opportunities at a 100% clip. Frankly, I don't expect them to manage 90% either].

Interesting to note - this method is predicting a few more wins than both ESPN (it shouldn't really be called 'Hollinger' any more) and Basketball-Reference. Maybe I'm being too optimistic somewhere? Alternatively, it may be that we can expect the team's play to improve once a few of the injuries heal up. I guess we'll see - that's half the fun, right?

 

ST

 

 

Current Standings:

 

:

:

3. San Antonio (21-5)

4. LA Clippers (18-9) 

5. Houston (17-9)

6. Dallas (15-10)

7. Phoenix (14-10)

8. Denver (14-10)

 

 

Last 5 Games:

 

vs Orlando (Won)

@ Portland (Lost)

@ Golden State (Won)

@ Sacramento (Lost)

vs Chicago (Won)

 

Actual Score: 3 out of 5

Expected Score: 3.55 out of 5

 

Next 5 Games:

 

@ Indiana (20-5)

@ Detroit (13-14)

vs Dallas (15-10)

@ San Antonio (21-5)

vs Memphis (14-3)

 

Expected Score: 2.75 out of 5

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Easy Wins (Expected: 90%):

 

Sacramento x4 (0-1)

Utah x3 (1-1)

Boston x2 (1-0)

Charlotte x2 (1-0)

Cleveland x2

Milwaukee x2

Orlando x2 (1-0)

Philadelphia x2 (0-1)

 

Current Score: 5-3

Expected Score: 15-4

 

Favoured (Expected: 75%):

 

LA Lakers x4 (0-1)

Memphis x4 (1-0)

Minnesota x4 (1-0)

New Orleans x4

Denver x3 (1-0)

Phoenix x3 (0-1)

Atlanta x2 (1-0)

Brooklyn x2 (1-0)

Chicago x2 (1-0)

Detroit x2

New York x2 (1-0)

Toronto x2 (1-0)

Washington x2

 

Current Score: 8-2

Expected Score: 27-9

 

Even (Expected: 50%):

 

Dallas x4 (1-1)

LA Clippers x4 (0-2)

Portland x4 (1-1)

Golden State x3 (2-0)

 

Current Score: 4-3

Expected Score: 8-7

 

Underdogs (Expected: 25%):

 

Oklahoma City x4

San Antonio x4 (1-0)

Indiana x2

Miami x2

 

Current Score: 1-0

Expected Score: 3-9

 

 

Current Record: 17-9

Projected Record: 53-29

 

 

Other Methods:

 

Basketball Reference Forecast: 50.3-31.7

Hollinger Projection: 50-32

[Drew in Abilene]

As a public demand contributor, I am very thankful for the return of the schedule analysis!

I'm glad I wasn't the only one begging Sir Thursday to bring this back! 

[redfaithful]

Interesting to note - this method is predicting a few more wins than both ESPN (it shouldn't really be called 'Hollinger' any more) and Basketball-Reference. Maybe I'm being too optimistic somewhere? Alternatively, it may be that we can expect the team's play to improve once a few of the injuries heal up. I guess we'll see - that's half the fun, right?

 

ESPN's rankings gives much weight to the last 10 games, losses to bad teams and games decided by large margin - stability is most appreciated. The Rockets are a work in progress, and that combined with the injuries resulted in some ranking-deflating losses lately (Utah, SAC, IND). When the injuries lessen there certainly should be meaningful improvement on the stability front, and better record.

[Sir Thursday]

Here's the latest update. As you can see, the expected wins from my prediction has increased over the last 7 games (53->54 wins). However, both ESPN and Basketball Reference were down on the Rockets over the past 7 games (50->48 and 50.3->49.6 respectively). This is probably because both take into account margin of victory and therefore mark the Rockets down for their big losses against Indiana and OKC. But I think 4-3 is actually a pretty good result over that 7 game stretch, blow outs notwithstanding. All the Rockets really need to do is keep putting away the teams they're supposed to beat and they should end up with an excellent win total.

 

ST

 
Current Standings:
 
:
:

3. San Antonio (24-7)

4. LA Clippers (21-11) 

5. Houston (21-12)

6. Phoenix (18-11)

7. Golden State (19-13)

8. Dallas (17-13)

 
 
Last 5 Games:
 
vs Dallas (Lost)

@ San Antonio (Won)
vs Memphis (Won)

vs New Orleans (Won)

@ Oklahoma City (Lost)
 
Actual Score: 3 out of 5
Expected Score: 2.5 out of 5
 
Next 5 Games:
 
vs Sacramento (9-20)

vs New York (9-21)

vs LA Lakers (13-18)

@ Atlanta (17-14)

@ Washington (13-14)

Expected Score: 3.9 out of 5
 
Full Schedule Breakdown:
 
Easy Wins (Expected: 90%):
 
Sacramento x4 (0-1)
Utah x3 (1-1)
Boston x2 (1-0)
Charlotte x2 (1-0)
Cleveland x2
Milwaukee x2
Orlando x2 (1-0)
Philadelphia x2 (0-1)
 
Current Score: 5-3
Expected Score: 15-4
 
Favoured (Expected: 75%):
 
LA Lakers x4 (0-1)
Memphis x4 (2-0)
Minnesota x4 (1-0)
New Orleans x4 (1-0)
Denver x3 (1-0)
Phoenix x3 (0-1)
Atlanta x2 (1-0)
Brooklyn x2 (1-0)
Chicago x2 (1-0)
Detroit x2 (1-0)
New York x2 (1-0)
Toronto x2 (1-0)
Washington x2
 
Current Score: 11-2
Expected Score: 28-8
 
Even (Expected: 50%):
 
Dallas x4 (1-2)
LA Clippers x4 (0-2)
Portland x4 (1-1)
Golden State x3 (2-0)
 
Current Score: 4-5
Expected Score: 7-8
 
Underdogs (Expected: 25%):
 
Oklahoma City x4 (0-1)
San Antonio x4 (2-0)
Indiana x2 (0-1)
Miami x2
 
Current Score: 2-2
Expected Score: 4-8
 
 
Current Record: 22-12
Projected Record: 54-28
 
 
Other Methods:
 
Basketball Reference Forecast: 49.6-32.4
Hollinger Projection: 48-34

[redfaithful]

Agreed about the margin, the effect of blowouts should be lowered.

 

A game decided by 15 points is one-sided as one decided by 35, and therefore the "true" average margin should have a maximum margin of 15 per game.

 

Can one of the data handlers on the forum calculate the current MAR@15 (or any other way you want to call it) for this season?

[Sir Thursday]

Current Standings:
 
:
:

3. Oklahoma City (29-10)

4. LA Clippers (27-13) 

5. Houston (26-15)

6. Golden State (25-15)

7. Phoenix (22-16)

8. Dallas (23-17)

 
 
Last 5 Games:
 

@ Atlanta (Lost)

@ Washington (Won)

@ Boston (Won)

@ New Orleans (Won)

vs Oklahoma City (Lost)

 
Actual Score: 3 out of 5
Expected Score: 3.4 out of 5
 
Next 5 Games:
 

vs Milwaukee (7-31)

vs Portland (29-9)

vs Sacramento (14-23)

vs Memphis (19-19)

@ Memphis (19-19)

Expected Score: 3.8 out of 5
 
Full Schedule Breakdown:
 
Easy Wins (Expected: 90%):
 
Sacramento x4 (0-2)
Utah x3 (1-1)
Boston x2 (2-0)
Charlotte x2 (1-0)
Cleveland x2
Milwaukee x2
Orlando x2 (1-0)
Philadelphia x2 (0-1)
 
Current Score: 5-4
Expected Score: 14-5
 
Favoured (Expected: 75%):
 
LA Lakers x4 (1-1)
Memphis x4 (2-0)
Minnesota x4 (1-0)
New Orleans x4 (2-0)
Denver x3 (1-0)
Phoenix x3 (0-1)
Atlanta x2 (1-1)
Brooklyn x2 (1-0)
Chicago x2 (1-0)
Detroit x2 (1-0)
New York x2 (2-0)
Toronto x2 (1-0)
Washington x2 (1-0)
 
Current Score: 15-3
Expected Score: 29-7
 
Even (Expected: 50%):
 
Dallas x4 (1-2)
LA Clippers x4 (0-2)
Portland x4 (1-1)
Golden State x3 (2-0)
 
Current Score: 4-5
Expected Score: 7-8
 
Underdogs (Expected: 25%):
 
Oklahoma City x4 (0-2)
San Antonio x4 (2-0)
Indiana x2 (0-1)
Miami x2
 
Current Score: 2-3
Expected Score: 4-8
 
 
Current Record: 26-15
Projected Record: 54-28
 
 
Other Methods:
 
Basketball Reference Forecast: 49.5-32.5
Hollinger Projection: 48-34