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@  rocketrick : (01 December 2013 - 05:42 PM) Parsons should have been resting like 3 weeks ago. However, since he is on the bottom of the totem pole, so to speak, no rest for the weary.
@  2016Champions : (01 December 2013 - 02:32 PM) Yeah give Casspi more minutes
@  RollingWave : (01 December 2013 - 02:09 PM) They need to rest Parsons, that back is scaring me, vs Utah seem to be as good of a time as any
@  2016Champions : (01 December 2013 - 05:25 AM) Yeah its basically a weapon and he's getting better at hitting his target
@  CanSayNOTC : (01 December 2013 - 04:39 AM) That's twice I've seen Duncan bruise someone with his kneebrace.
@  2016Champions : (01 December 2013 - 04:03 AM) Great win. Man these injuries are scaring me.
@  feelingsuper... : (01 December 2013 - 03:55 AM) Yes, Dallas and Memphis lost!
@  feelingsuper... : (01 December 2013 - 03:53 AM) Wow, I'm shocked they held on. I am impressed with Harden and Jones. The Rockets have beat Portland and San Antonio, impressive.
@  jorgeaam : (01 December 2013 - 03:51 AM) Nice win for the Rockets, maybe complicated things a little bit in the end, but a win is a win
@  jorgeaam : (01 December 2013 - 03:47 AM) Parsons is down
@  jorgeaam : (01 December 2013 - 03:47 AM) 4 point lead with 16 seconds remaining, oh God
@  jorgeaam : (01 December 2013 - 03:44 AM) YESS!!!!!
@  jorgeaam : (01 December 2013 - 03:30 AM) I totally agree with that FSS
@  feelingsuper... : (01 December 2013 - 03:27 AM) The Spurs have a system that has been on place a decade. They make adjustments and plug in players and keep doing what they do. The Rockets are searching for a system and working out roles. It cannot be compared.
@  feelingsuper... : (01 December 2013 - 03:24 AM) These and of instead of this and if in the post below.
@  jorgeaam : (01 December 2013 - 03:24 AM) Chemistry I expect the Rockets to have plenty of next season
@  jorgeaam : (01 December 2013 - 03:23 AM) Yeah, the Spurs have the best team chemistry in the league, along with the greatest coach
@  feelingsuper... : (01 December 2013 - 03:22 AM) This two teams cannot even be compared in terms if development and where they are on their respective timelines.
@  jorgeaam : (01 December 2013 - 03:19 AM) Well, there's no way of not blowing a 20 point lead when Brooks and Harden are covering Tony Parker
@  feelingsuper... : (01 December 2013 - 03:19 AM) Well of course, that's the Spurs. I expected this.

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James Harden heroball extraordinaire


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15 replies to this topic

#1 shirtless

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    Posted 30 November 2013 - 01:31 AM

    After watching the ball move so freely since Harden's been hurt, I started wondering if there's a way to quantify heroballness and compare Harden's level to noted others. Sure enough, NBA.com's new nifty sports tracking provided the necessary evidence.

     

    Passes per minute of possession (notable PGs): CP3 - 11.4, John Wall - 9.8, Ricky Rubio - 11.8

    Frontcourt touches per pass (notable PGs): CP3 - 1.14, Wall - 1.17, Rubio - 0.98 (whoa!)

    PPMP (notable wings): Lebron - 12.2, Carmelo - 12.4, Durant - 13.8, Harden - 9.2 (wtf!)

    FTPP (notable wings): Lebron - 1.27, Carmelo - 1.35, Durant - 1.44, Harden - 1.46

     

    PPMP is fairly self explanatory. Note that it's per minute of possession (with ball in hand), not per minute on the floor.

     

    FTPP only applies to frontcourt touches because receiving the ball in the backcourt, say on an inbounds after a made basket, skews the data. Basically it measures how frequently someone shoots the ball after touching it (higher numbers indicating they shoot more, lower numbers indicating they shoot less and presumably pass more). 

     

    I chose PGs as comparison because I figured they naturally touch the ball more. I chose wings as a comparison because that's what Harden is, and selected players based upon their primacy on their teams, and because some (namely Carmelo) are noted for being ball hogs. 

     

    Doesn't look good for Harden, probably confirms a lot of what we suspected. 

     

     


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    #2 Cooper

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      Posted 30 November 2013 - 03:03 AM

      Passed well tonight.
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      #3 timetodienow1234567

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      Posted 30 November 2013 - 04:19 AM

      I think Harden has done extremely well this year compared to last year. I do see some improvement in passing the ball. I hope it continues even when he recovers to 100%.


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      Why so Serious? :D


      #4 Buckko

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        Posted 30 November 2013 - 10:23 AM

        Can't complain tonight, at all.


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        #5 txtdo1411

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        Posted 30 November 2013 - 03:31 PM

        He will continue to learn, and get better at making sure the ball is constantly moving. I think young stars that can almost score at will tend to rely too heavily on their own abilities rather than use their teammates. But I also believe it is something they get better at with more familiarity with the team and experience. I would be curious to see the stats of LeBron, Durant, Wade, Carmelo, CP3, etc. when they were in their 3rd-4th seasons. I'm not sure if the numbers would back my theory, but I think young scorers that are stars for their teams have to learn to trust their teammates, and not have to rely on their own scoring abilities as much.


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        #6 2016Champions

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        Posted 30 November 2013 - 03:59 PM

        If you forgive him for his occasional hero ball, he's actually a great team player who knows not only how to make great passes but when to simply give up the ball and let someone else make a play.
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        "We're not satisfied with where we're at, but we're optimistic on where things will go from here" - Daryl Morey


        #7 NorEastern

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          Posted 30 November 2013 - 08:43 PM

          Harden isolation's actually yield more PPP than the Rockets team overall. He is an incredibly adept iso player. So I am not convinced that they are actually detrimental to the team.


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          #8 thenit

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            Posted 30 November 2013 - 09:52 PM

            I don't have they data but I am pretty sure it doesn't
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            #9 thejohnnygold

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            Posted 30 November 2013 - 11:17 PM

            Harden isolation's actually yield more PPP than the Rockets team overall. He is an incredibly adept iso player. So I am not convinced that they are actually detrimental to the team.

             

            That poses an interesting thought though...caution...heading into hypothetical land...is there an inverse relationship where Harden's iso's, while effective, are detrimental to the rest of the team's scoring (picturing his frequent end-of-shot-clock passes to guys who aren't open and have to chuck the ball at the rim).  The question is would our overall team ppp (which is 100%usg rate) improve to the point that Harden's elite ppp (with a 27% usg rate) would prove to be less effective?

             

            Without delving into the math I think we can all agree that Harden working on improving our team ppp while he is on the court would be outstanding--it doesn't have to reach his level of solo efficiency.  When needed, he can still "take over" and maximize our ppp with his unique abilities.

             

            This could definitely use some numbers to help visualize and reinforce the notion, but currently I am just not interested in making that effort :P


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            #10 2016Champions

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            Posted 01 December 2013 - 02:38 AM

            Harden isolation's actually yield more PPP than the Rockets team overall. He is an incredibly adept iso player. So I am not convinced that they are actually detrimental to the team.


            Are you sure about this?
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            #11 rocketrick

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              Posted 01 December 2013 - 06:53 AM

              There seems to be less instances of Harden going iso this season than last. Could be part of the maturing process that all good players go through. And could be partly because the Rockets have more weapons this season and more trust.


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              #12 Steven

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                Posted 01 December 2013 - 07:20 AM

                There seems to be less instances of Harden going iso this season than last. Could be part of the maturing process that all good players go through. And could be partly because the Rockets have more weapons this season and more trust.

                Or the fact that Harden is playing with better players this year then last.

                Howard>Asik
                TJones>PPat
                Parsons (3rd season)>Parsons(2nd season)
                Beverly>Lin (of last year)

                Confidence in those around him can lead to less pressure he puts on himself to be "The Man".
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                #13 rocketrick

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                  Posted 01 December 2013 - 07:26 AM

                  Or the fact that Harden is playing with better players this year then last.

                  Howard>Asik
                  TJones>PPat
                  Parsons (3rd season)>Parsons(2nd season)
                  Beverly>Lin (of last year)

                  Confidence in those around him can lead to less pressure he puts on himself to be "The Man".

                  Exactly! Those be the weapons I mentioned in my last post!


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                  #14 shirtless

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                    Posted 01 December 2013 - 09:11 AM

                    It'd be neat to see what Harden's heroball stats are from last year, but this is the first year that NBA keeps this kind of data. It's important to note that, even though he is supposedly less heroic this year, Harden's back of the napkin heroball stats (I'm not pretending these are in any way accurate) are still higher than those of his peers. In some cases, they are greater by quite a bit.  

                     

                    The important question, that many others have identified, is what degree of Harden heroball is most conducive to the Rockets winning games. My tentative opinion is that it's less than what he's currently exhibiting. Right now Lebron is passing the ball 33% more and Durant 50% more per minute of possession. That behavior just seems too different from two players with similar roles whose teams have a winning track record. 

                     

                    Of course it would be great if there were data to validate my claim, especially on a game by game basis. Unfortunately that data is not kept by NBA. 


                    Edited by shirtless, 01 December 2013 - 09:18 AM.

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                    #15 2016Champions

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                    Posted 01 December 2013 - 02:49 PM

                    It'd be neat to see what Harden's heroball stats are from last year, but this is the first year that NBA keeps this kind of data. It's important to note that, even though he is supposedly less heroic this year, Harden's back of the napkin heroball stats (I'm not pretending these are in any way accurate) are still higher than those of his peers. In some cases, they are greater by quite a bit.  
                     
                    The important question, that many others have identified, is what degree of Harden heroball is most conducive to the Rockets winning games. My tentative opinion is that it's less than what he's currently exhibiting. Right now Lebron is passing the ball 33% more and Durant 50% more per minute of possession. That behavior just seems too different from two players with similar roles whose teams have a winning track record. 
                     
                    Of course it would be great if there were data to validate my claim, especially on a game by game basis. Unfortunately that data is not kept by NBA.

                    Eh there's relative data such as synergy isolation stats and 82 games.com clutch stats, and those stats give me the impression Harden's hero ball is very, very, inefficient in comparison to his regular efficiency. Even by eye test I thought it was obvious.
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                    #16 thenit

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                      Posted 01 December 2013 - 07:13 PM

                      Exactly! Those be the weapons I mentioned in my last post!


                      Parts of is true but he I think it's partly due to his nagging injuries. We will see later when there are close games and not blowouts when he is healthy what he does.
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