21 replies to this topic

[timetodienow1234567]

I'm starting this conversation because some people believe that Parsons is better than or equal to Kawhi Leonard on defense. I think that's funny, and I'm going to attempt to prove my assertions with logical facts. 

 

First, let's compare the situations. First of all, both Parsons and Lin played with a top 5 rim protector(Asik/Duncan) and both had a defensively compromised guard (Parker/Neal and Harden). While the team defense of San Antonio is better, it's close enough in my mind that comparisons based on individual statistics can be used to roughly gauge the situation. I know Danny Green is better than Harden/Lin defensively but Beverley is better than Neal defensively, so it's almost a wash. 

 

Second, here are a few stats that I will throw out here.

 

Chandler Parsons

DRR(Defensive Rebounding Rate) = 13.2

STL(Steals) = 0.99

BLK(Blocks) = 0.42

CHG(Charges) = 0.18

DEF(Defensive plays: steals, blocks, and charges) = 1.59

PF(Personal Fouls) = 1.9

 

Kawhi Leonard

DRR(Defensive Rebounding Rate) = 17.1

STL(Steals) = 1.68

BLK(Blocks) = 0.58

CHG(Charges) = 0.08

DEF(Defensive plays: steals, blocks, and charges) = 2.34

 

PF(Personal Fouls) = 1.7

 

That's pretty clear cut to me that Kawhi Leonard is better.

 

These numbers came from www.hoopdata.com

 

Now, I know that individual statistics don't tell the whole story. That's why advanced statistics were created in the first place.

 

Kawhi Leonard

Overall: 0.82 PPP(Points per Play), 38 FG%, 32 3FG%, 

Isolation: 0.78 PPP(Points per Play), 36.5 FG%, 26.7 3FG%

P%R Ball Handler: 0.71 PPP(Points per Play), 36.3 FG%, 38.9 3FG%, 

Spot Up: 0.87 PPP(Points per Play), 35.6 FG%, 29.7 3FG%

Off Screen: 0.89 PPP(Points per Play), 43.8 FG%, 46.2 3FG%

 

Overall Rank = 87

 

Chandler Parsons

Overall: 0.88 PPP(Points per Play), 39.5 FG%, 37.5 3FG%, 

Isolation: 0.78 PPP(Points per Play), 37.5 FG%, 28 3FG%

P%R Ball Handler: 0.7 PPP(Points per Play), 34.5 FG%, 28 3FG%, 

Spot Up: 1 PPP(Points per Play), 39.5 FG%, 38.7 3FG%

Off Screen: 0.98 PPP(Points per Play), 42.2 FG%, 40 3FG%

 

Overall Rank = 226

 

These are a little closer, but not by much

 

These statistics come from mysynergysports.com

 

Here are a few more stats, from people who like even more advanced statistics.

 

Kawhi Leonard

Defensive Rating = 99

Defensive Win Shares = 3.3

 

Chandler Parsons

Defensive Rating = 108

Defensive Win Shares = 2.1

 

That shows Kawhi being better by a WIDE margin.

 

These statistics came from http://www.basketbal...nce.com/players

 

I think by any measure Kawhi Leonard is much, much better than Chandler Parsons defensively. I took the time to post stats from many different sites and used a variety of metrics so that this can't be turned into a stats debate. 

 

For those of you who go by the "eye test" more and saw that Parsons is the better defender, I'll never persuade you otherwise because we're watching a different game. I could go on for another 10,000 words listing various stats, but I won't.

 

I love Parsons and would say that he's a better offensive player right now, but defensively it's not close. Just because Parsons is one of my favorite players doesn't mean I lose perspective.

 

 

[Cooper]

Some pretty convincing stats to go with the eye test that Leonard is better defensively.

[Buckko]

I'm starting this conversation because some people believe that Parsons is better than or equal to Kawhi Leonard on defense. I think that's funny, and I'm going to attempt to prove my assertions with logical facts. 

 

First, let's compare the situations. First of all, both Parsons and Lin played with a top 5 rim protector(Asik/Duncan) and both had a defensively compromised guard (Parker/Neal and Harden). While the team defense of San Antonio is better, it's close enough in my mind that comparisons based on individual statistics can be used to roughly gauge the situation. I know Danny Green is better than Harden/Lin defensively but Beverley is better than Neal defensively, so it's almost a wash. 

 

Second, here are a few stats that I will throw out here.

 

Chandler Parsons

DRR(Defensive Rebounding Rate) = 13.2

STL(Steals) = 0.99

BLK(Blocks) = 0.42

CHG(Charges) = 0.18

DEF(Defensive plays: steals, blocks, and charges) = 1.59

PF(Personal Fouls) = 1.9

 

Kawhi Leonard

DRR(Defensive Rebounding Rate) = 17.1

STL(Steals) = 1.68

BLK(Blocks) = 0.58

CHG(Charges) = 0.08

DEF(Defensive plays: steals, blocks, and charges) = 2.34

 

PF(Personal Fouls) = 1.7

 

That's pretty clear cut to me that Kawhi Leonard is better.

 

These numbers came from www.hoopdata.com

 

Now, I know that individual statistics don't tell the whole story. That's why advanced statistics were created in the first place.

 

Kawhi Leonard

Overall: 0.82 PPP(Points per Play), 38 FG%, 32 3FG%, 

Isolation: 0.78 PPP(Points per Play), 36.5 FG%, 26.7 3FG%

P%R Ball Handler: 0.71 PPP(Points per Play), 36.3 FG%, 38.9 3FG%, 

Spot Up: 0.87 PPP(Points per Play), 35.6 FG%, 29.7 3FG%

Off Screen: 0.89 PPP(Points per Play), 43.8 FG%, 46.2 3FG%

 

Overall Rank = 87

 

Chandler Parsons

Overall: 0.88 PPP(Points per Play), 39.5 FG%, 37.5 3FG%, 

Isolation: 0.78 PPP(Points per Play), 37.5 FG%, 28 3FG%

P%R Ball Handler: 0.7 PPP(Points per Play), 34.5 FG%, 28 3FG%, 

Spot Up: 1 PPP(Points per Play), 39.5 FG%, 38.7 3FG%

Off Screen: 0.98 PPP(Points per Play), 42.2 FG%, 40 3FG%

 

Overall Rank = 226

 

These are a little closer, but not by much

 

These statistics come from mysynergysports.com

 

Here are a few more stats, from people who like even more advanced statistics.

 

Kawhi Leonard

Defensive Rating = 99

Defensive Win Shares = 3.3

 

Chandler Parsons

Defensive Rating = 108

Defensive Win Shares = 2.1

 

That shows Kawhi being better by a WIDE margin.

 

These statistics came from http://www.basketbal...nce.com/players

 

I think by any measure Kawhi Leonard is much, much better than Chandler Parsons defensively. I took the time to post stats from many different sites and used a variety of metrics so that this can't be turned into a stats debate. 

 

For those of you who go by the "eye test" more and saw that Parsons is the better defender, I'll never persuade you otherwise because we're watching a different game. I could go on for another 10,000 words listing various stats, but I won't.

 

I love Parsons and would say that he's a better offensive player right now, but defensively it's not close. Just because Parsons is one of my favorite players doesn't mean I lose perspective.

Well you prove me wrong, now I wander whats Leonard compared to Paul George.

[timetodienow1234567]

Well you prove me wrong, now I wander whats Leonard compared to Paul George.

That's a good question but I'm too lazy right now to do it.

[Losthief]

Well you prove me wrong, now I wander whats Leonard compared to Paul George.

 

George

def win shars=6.3

def rating=97

 

overall rank 87

 

overall  100%       ppp .82 fg 37.3 3fg 34.1

iso 15.4%             ppp .76 fg 35.3 3fg 9.1

pr ball 27.4%        ppp .78 fg 37.8 3fg 42.1

post 12.9%           ppp .87 fg 43.4 3fg N/A

pr roll 2.2%          ppp .41 fg 17.2 3fg 40

spot up 24.5%      ppp .9 fg 35.8 3fg 34.6

off screen 13.1% ppp .89 fg 38 3fg 45

hand off 4.3%      ppp .85 fg 42.9 fg 28.6

 

DRR(Defensive Rebounding Rate) = 19.0

STL(Steals) = 1.78

BLK(Blocks) = .63

CHG(Charges) =.11

DEF(Defensive plays: steals, blocks, and charges) = 2.53

PF(Personal Fouls) = 2.9

 

So, george fouls more than lenoard...is similar in alot of areas, better def rebounder and slightly higher across the board in normal stats. Though the synergy sports stats are so close its scary. George is the better iso by a bit, Leonard the better pick and roll ball handler by a bit...though the 2nd could be team scheme.

Edited by Losthief, 08 August 2013 - 03:51 AM.

[Steven]

Stats can be skewed to fit any narrative.

[hizzobbes]

Here are the stats from RAPM (regularized adjusted plus minus) that Red posted in another thread...

Def xRAPM

 

K. Leonard +1.39 http://stats-for-the.../teams/SAS.html

 

C. Parsons +0.12 http://stats-for-the.../teams/HOU.html

 

Parsons did play a little over 400 more minutes than Leonard, which is a factor. 

[Losthief]

Here are the stats from RAPM (regularized adjusted plus minus) that Red posted in another thread...

Def xRAPM

 

K. Leonard +1.39 http://stats-for-the.../teams/SAS.html

 

C. Parsons +0.12 http://stats-for-the.../teams/HOU.html

 

Parsons did play a little over 400 more minutes than Leonard, which is a factor. 

 

for the record to be complete lol: paul george was 3.06 def xrapm

[timetodienow1234567]

Paul George also has Hibbert like Asik/Duncan. He also plays with some good wing defenders and West is pretty good when dialed in. But yeah George is the better defender right now with his height and long reach.

[Losthief]

better than parsons definetly.

 

i actually read the stats as almost dead on the same as Kahwi, just slightly better at rebounding. The win shares thing is interesting but might have to do with teammates more than the individual.

Edited by Losthief, 08 August 2013 - 05:19 AM.

[Ostrow]

I think the biggest difference between Parsons and Leonard is their off-ball defense.  When Parsons was locked in on the guy with the ball I feel like he was almost as good as Leonard.  Off the ball it is not even close. Parsons gets lazy and he gambles, from the games that I have watched, Leonard rarely does that.  I do think he is helped by having better defenders around him and a better defensive scheme, but he is definitely a better defender.

[Alituro]

Interesting post.. I was never one to proclaim Parsons being better than Leonard defensively. To me, this proves they look pretty close, not miles apart, and when you factor in the offensive side with more scoring from Parsons, it brings them even closer as complete players. One thing though, when comparing DRRs between the two with KL at 17.1 and CP at 13.2, considering that both have similar quality big men in the post (defensively), you should combine the teams' primary rebounder with these SF's stats to get an accurate idea of the reason for the discrepancy. Yeah CP was only getting a 13.2 rate, but was that due to not being a savvy rebounder, or due to the fact that Asik had more rebounds covered?

 

DRRs:

Tim Duncan: 26.9 + Leonard: 17.1 = 44

Omer Asik: 31.1 + Parsons: 13.2 = 44.3

 

I think that shows that Asik had them covered. Which is good, because I don't want my SF hanging around under the basket trying to snag a rebound, he needs to be running back in transition (hence better scoring from CP)..

[John P]

Good use of stats and I can't say I disagree, but there are a couple of contrary points in favor of Parsons...

 

Parsons worked in less of a system that allows all of SA players to look better than they would playing for other teams/coaches like McHale.  If we had a better, more complex system then maybe Parsons' stats benefit.

 

Pace and required offensive production: I know both SA and Houston played at a face pace last season, but my guess is that Parsons was asked to do a lot more on the offensive end to help carry the team with Harden then Leonard was with SA.  SA had better all around shooters like Green and Neal that had to be covered at all times.  Houston had Harden and maybe Lin or Garcia/Delfino, that was it.

 

Also, going forward, I think both players look to have good prospects, but I would wager that Leonard has a higher ceiling from where he currently is than Parsons.  Just a hunch.  But also, is he really a future leader for the Spurs?  Does he have that personality?  I see that much more in Parsons.  His hair just inspires his teammates to greatness.

Edited by John P, 08 August 2013 - 02:34 PM.

[thejohnnygold]

One thing I always look at regarding defense is how good a guy is at preventing his opponent from even taking a shot--not how good he is at preventing a shot from going in.  As we all can quickly realize, a shot not taken has zero% chance of going in.  Thus, this is the best defensive play on the court in regards to individual defense.  I think the stats gurus have taken to calling this the Dwight Effect--trying to measure the number of shots not taken as an indicator of defensive ability.

 

I'm sure there are much better pools of data to analyze for this, but all I have is mysynergysports.com--so that's what we're using.

 

My formula is simple--I divide the number of minutes by the number of FGAs (field goal attempts).  That gives me a per minute shot rate. which can then be held next to their respective conversion rates to get a better idea of their defensive contribution.

 

So, here's Parsons and Leonard:

 

Parsons: 2996 mins / 752 = 3.98 mins/shot

 

Leonard: 2586 mins / 619 = 4.17 mins/shot

 

Also, one can look at their "total plays defended" per mysynergy and get these per minute rates:

 

Parsons: 2996 mins / 899 tp (total plays) = 3.33 mins/play

 

Leonard: 2586 mins / 743 tp = 3.48 mins/play

 

Leonard posts a slight edge in both categories with each showing a roughly 20% boost from tp's to fga's.

 

Let's expand them to a per 36 and see what the difference is after factoring in their respective fg%'s.  (we'll assume all shots are 2 pointers to keep it simple, but it should be noted that Parsons got abused by opposing 3 point shooters--which is inexcusable and partially due to the Rocket's habit of helping off the perimeter, but not really, and just winding up in no-man's-land.)

 

Per36 points scored:  (36 minutes divided by mins/play produces the factor in parenthesis and the % is their overall fg% allowed)

 

Parsons: (10.81 * 39.5%) * 2 = 8.54 points per 36

 

Leonard: (10.34 * 38.0%) * 2 = 7.86 points per 36

 

Now, I'm quite certain that this statistical analysis has huge errors and faults in it.  Feel free to point them out.

 

Still, based off of this it can be seen that, on average, Leonard allows roughly 1 less point per game (and probably more since Parsons allows quite a lot more threes to be shot and to go in) and is, on the aggregate, a better on-the-ball defender.

 

I think if Parsons can tighten up that perimeter D (particularly against the 3 ball) then these two will be fairly even next season.  Also, I am not sure how much these stats can take into account ball denial as a factor, but that is something to consider as well.

 

One last note.  While it was noted that each player has a solid "big" behind them (Duncan/Asik) I feel that the drop-off at the other front court position bears mention.  They have Splitter to pair with Duncan and we have guys who have no idea what they are doing.  Not sure how to really incorporate that as I'm not sure how mysynergy factors in what plays count and what plays don't.

 

Overall, I would still rather have Parsons--I believe he brings more to the table once you factor in offense.

[timetodienow1234567]

Good point, but Leonard's role will increase on offense next year, so we will be able to accurately compare the two on offense.

[Mason Khamvilay]

Here are the stats from RAPM (regularized adjusted plus minus) that Red posted in another thread...
Def xRAPM

K. Leonard +1.39 http://stats-for-the.../teams/SAS.html

C. Parsons +0.12 http://stats-for-the.../teams/HOU.html

Parsons did play a little over 400 more minutes than Leonard, which is a factor.

I think these numbers are a reflection of the truth. Kawhi is a significantly better defender. I predict that gap will widen next season.

Edited by 2016Champions, 09 August 2013 - 04:43 AM.

[timetodienow1234567]

Kawhi has the athleticism to be a beast defender at the SF spot. With the league going more to stretch 4s, he can also guard the PF spot as well. His versatility is what makes him so good. He can switch off on picks and not be mismatched.

[timetodienow1234567]

Now that we're almost at the end of the season, what are people's thoughts about the Kawhi/Parsons debate now?

[Buckko]

Parson is a better offensive player with better scoring abilities and playmaking skills. Kawhi better all around defensive player and better rebounder. I would have to check shooting stats but I think it would be close.

[rockets best fan]

better offensively = Parsons

better defensively = Kawhi

better overall = Kawhi by just a hair