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@  RollingWave : (11 June 2013 - 01:36 AM) But it's not a vacuum, their cost is different, age is different, health is different, and one guy is already on the team
@  RollingWave : (11 June 2013 - 01:33 AM) Dwight -> CP3 -> Harden in order of preference.
@  RollingWave : (11 June 2013 - 01:33 AM) Cp3 also has some knee concern, but if we don't consider health and only in a vacuum I'd go with
@  2016Champions : (10 June 2013 - 06:24 PM) Very rarely do you see pgs getting overpaid.
@  2016Champions : (10 June 2013 - 06:23 PM) I think I would lean towards Harden over Cp3 because the pg position is the easiest to fill.
@  2016Champions : (10 June 2013 - 06:21 PM) D12 is definately 1 because of how hard it is to find high quality centers.
@  Richards : (10 June 2013 - 06:20 PM) Which players will you choose if you afford only two: CP3, D12, Harden?
@  2016Champions : (10 June 2013 - 05:42 PM) Plus it has already been discussed here.
@  2016Champions : (10 June 2013 - 05:41 PM) No you can post it. To me it's not really news, it should be obvious we would pursue both Dwight and Chris Paul.
@  Alituro : (10 June 2013 - 01:33 PM) @2016Champions, I think this article deserves a post and some discussion. You found it, I don't want to steal your fire.
@  2016Champions : (10 June 2013 - 03:34 AM) Rockets fans are getting dissed on twitter for the comments made on this Feigan article: http://blog.chron.co...oward-and-paul/
@  Ostrow : (09 June 2013 - 11:54 PM) The most ridiculous thing about that game is Parker had 0 turnovers. Ridiculous.  If you want to beat the Heat you have to keep them out of transition and make them run a half court offense. That means no TOs
@  timetodienow... : (09 June 2013 - 08:52 PM) Will Duncan be ejected or foul out tonight against Joey Crawford. Sometimes I wonder if Stern is as corrupt as some fans say he is?
@  2016Champions : (09 June 2013 - 06:56 PM) Harden, Asik and Lin is a good core we can keep for 10 years. But it would be crazy to not prefer a Dwight, Harden, Cp3 core.
@  RollingWave : (09 June 2013 - 08:19 AM) yeah but the Spurs have like 10 freaking years with that core together, we barely got through year one and everyone wants to blow things up ;)
@  2016Champions : (08 June 2013 - 10:04 PM) Alot of people don't realize we were a top 10 defense for the last 30 games of the season.
@  2016Champions : (08 June 2013 - 10:03 PM) Top 10 if Dwight doesn't sign.
@  2016Champions : (08 June 2013 - 10:02 PM) Yep. I think a big part of why Spurs are so good at that is their experience. I wouldn't be surprised if our turnovers cut down next season and our transition defense gets alot better. That's just one of several reasons I think we will be a top 5 defense next season.
@  RollingWave : (08 June 2013 - 05:35 PM) So I guess the riddle to how to deal with the Heat's transition game is solved, just dun turn it over evah! :P
@  2016Champions : (07 June 2013 - 08:47 PM) 4 is ridiculous especially against the Heat

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If we get Dwight, should we trade Asik?


74 replies to this topic

Poll: If we get Dwight, should we trade Asik? (20 member(s) have cast votes)

If we get Dwight, should we trade Asik?

  1. Yes (9 votes [45.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 45.00%

  2. No (5 votes [25.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 25.00%

  3. Keep him until we get a REALLY good offer (6 votes [30.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.00%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 2016Champions

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Posted 05 June 2013 - 06:43 PM

I'm going to say straight off the bat, I think option 3 feels like the obvious choice. However, I'm going to play Devil's advocate here, after some thought I think there is reason for discussion.

  1. If we keep Asik we have to let Greg Smith go according to Larry Coon's calculations

A team would have to get $20.5 million below the cap to afford Dwight (assuming he’s not offering any discounts). If Houston lets go of most of their non-guaranteed or team option salary (Anderson, Brooks, Delfino, Garcia, Ohlbrecht, Smith), and they find a taker for Thomas Robinson with no salary coming back, then they’d have about $19.6 million in cap room (assuming a $58.5 million cap). I think they’d have to find a little more to trade, or convince Dwight he really wants to come there.

 

Throw Royce White into that T-Rob deal and the $19.6 million in cap room goes to $21.3 million. So after Dwight's signing we have a remainder of $700,000 which is unfortunately a little short of Greg Smith's $884,293 (assuming Dwight doesn't give a tiny discount). 

 

Assuming these calculations are correct, it gives us reason to trade Asik. Not only will we be able to keep Smith, but assuming we don't take any salary back in the trade, we will also have over 8 million to offer another free agent.

 

      2.  We could have over 8 million to offer Paul Millsap. Paying MIllsap 8 million to play 30+ minutes makes more sense than paying Asik to play around 10 minutes (there will be games in the playoffs where Asik will play around 5 minutes). Paul Millsap made 6 out of 10 corner 3's this season, but because of sample size it's probably more significant that he made a 37 out of 72 (51%) of his corner long 2's. There is reason to believe Millsap could be a good corner 3 shooter if he just took a couple of steps back on all those long corner 2's. 

 

Dwight--Millsap--Parsons--Harden--Lin would be an extremely strong starting 5.

 

     3. We can get more chances to find another Chandler Parsons caliber 2nd round steal. The Blazers are looking for a defensive center because they need to make the playoffs and make Aldridge happy before he hits free agency, and they have 3 second round picks to give up in addition to a future 1st. I think this draft will be deeper than alot of people realize, with guys like Glen Rice Jr. and skilled centers like Mike Muscala projected in the second round. With 4 second round picks and Morey's genius, we have a good chance of finding another incredible bargain or four. Not to mention that future 1st rounder will be in a really good draft, if injuries strike the Blazers that pick could be better than expected.

 

To be clear, I'm only discussing the scenario that we trade Asik on the premise that Dwight verbally commits to Harden and Parsons. If that's not good enough, then we can wait till July 1st when Dwight is free to talk to Morey. 


 “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


#2 Ostrow

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    Posted 05 June 2013 - 07:31 PM

    Is there a keep him UNLESS we get a REALLY good offer?



    #3 Rockets fan newton

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      Posted 05 June 2013 - 07:37 PM

      My hope is that we use him in a s&t for Howrd. Either to La or any other team that wants him. Makes no sense to use 8 mil on a back center when u don't have a decent starting Pf. And for w/e reason we can't do a s&t with him involved then I would trade him for a 1st round next year or a starting Pf. If for w/e reason the genius of Morey can find away to get Howard a staring

      #4 Rockets fan newton

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        Posted 05 June 2013 - 07:38 PM

        My hope is that we use him in a s&t for Howrd. Either to La or any other team that wants him. Makes no sense to use 8 mil on a back center when u don't have a decent starting Pf. And for w/e reason we can't do a s&t with him involved then I would trade him for a 1st round next year or a starting Pf. If for w/e reason the genius of Morey can find away to get Howard a staring Pf and keep Lin and Asik then I'm fully on board with keeping Asik on the team as a over paid back up center.

        #5 2016Champions

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        Posted 05 June 2013 - 08:34 PM

        Is there a keep him UNLESS we get a REALLY good offer?

        Isn't option 3 close enough to that? I hardly think letting him walk via FA in 2015 should be an option...


         “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

        Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

        Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


        #6 2016Champions

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        Posted 05 June 2013 - 08:44 PM

        Alot of people don't realize this, but the new CBA states that a team over the apron (4m into the luxury) can't receive players in a sign and trade. This means the Lakers can only receive picks in return for Dwight in a sign and trade, and unless they're getting a lottery first (highly unlikely) I don't see any reason why the Lakers would co-operate. 


         “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

        Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

        Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


        #7 manmythlegend

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          Posted 05 June 2013 - 09:16 PM

          $30 million+ annual cap hit for the next two seasons is a lot to devote to one position on the floor.  I think you trade Asik eventually, but not before Howard is in a Rockets uniform.

           

          I wouldn't trust any pre-July 1st verbal commitments from Howard. Worst case scenario would have the Rockets trading away a top-10 starting center to a conference rival, watch Howard stay with the Lakers because "I had a change of heart and want to win a championship for LA", and have Mason Plumlee as your starting center.



          #8 Rockets fan newton

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            Posted 05 June 2013 - 09:19 PM

            Nope I didn't know that. Well crap, there goes my best plans lol😝. Well in that case your right we will have to sign him.even more reason to move Asik. Cause we will not have anymore cap space to sign anyone else, and like I said we need a starting Pf and atleast one solid player off the bench(assuming we cut delfino so we have enough room to sign Howard). Lets all truly pray that he wants to come to Houston so much that he will take a couple mil off for us.

            #9 rockets best fan

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            Posted 06 June 2013 - 01:16 AM

            let me be the voice of reason here.................trading asik before getting D-12 is insane. if I have to explain it again then you're probably not going to get it. even if the rockets move asik it will be after D-12 has sign the dotted line. since the draft is before FA. so there is NO WAY asik can be moved for anything in this draft because we will not have gotten and chance to speak to howard yet so it's impossible to have a commitment by then. asik is a valued big man in the league......an asset we can move at any point for a pretty nice haul. what's the rush? howard is enough of an acquisition for this year. I am against trading asik at all, but even if we are going too we have no reason to be in a rush to do it. some of you sound desperate.



            #10 thejohnnygold

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            Posted 06 June 2013 - 01:51 AM

            Ya know, if we just sign Josh Smith this all becomes moot as we can easily squeeze his $14-$16M under the cap :rolleyes:

             

            Seriously though, is nobody concerned about Mark Cuban and the Mavs?  If ever there was a "Dwight-friendly" owner it's gotta be Mark Cuban--they're kindred spirits!  Besides, if you're talking about a player's "brand" how much better does it get than this: "The Big D".  That's got some marketing points, doesn't it? :lol:

             

            All this number talk has made my head spin, but if the Rockets have to relinquish the majority of their quality depth to land Dwight doesn't that diminish our appeal to him?  (I can't remember what the reality is anymore--too many scenarios to keep track of)

             

            I also believe Atlanta is a sleeper to snag him as well.  They have been forgotten, but they have the cap space, a quality PF in Horford and Josh Smith can choose to re-sign as well (presuming they are willing to take discounts to play with their best friends...not out of the realms of reality).

             

            I think that Houston has serious competition for ol' Dwight...

             

            EDIT: Sorry, forgot which thread I was in...thought this was the Howard thread...Re-read RBF's comment above in my voice...which reminds me...do you guys have voices for everyone on here too?  In my head, you all have different voices I read you in....is that weird? :unsure:



            #11 RollingWave

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              Posted 06 June 2013 - 03:49 AM

              Alot of people don't realize this, but the new CBA states that a team over the apron (4m into the luxury) can't receive players in a sign and trade. This means the Lakers can only receive picks in return for Dwight in a sign and trade, and unless they're getting a lottery first (highly unlikely) I don't see any reason why the Lakers would co-operate.

              From my understanding, it's that they can't be on the main receiving end of a S&T, so... they can't say... get a Chris Paul on a S&T for Pau Gasol (an example), but... they can do a S&T trade with Howard leaving and getting players back (the normal money matching rules need to still apply.)

              Still, with the changes to the S&T rules , it'll appear very rarely going forward I think.

              #12 2016Champions

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              Posted 06 June 2013 - 03:57 AM

              Hmm maybe I misinterpreted what I originally read because I just read this from Larry Coon: 

               

              Teams above the apron (the point $4 million above the luxury tax line) can’t RECEIVE a player who is signed-and-traded, but they can send a player away in a sign-and-trade. So the Lakers CAN do a sign-and-trade with Dwight if they (and Dwight, and the other team) want to.

              Read more at http://www.hoopsworl...U0CLqtVK4Sf5.99

               

              So it seems like the Lakers can't accept someone like Chris Paul for example in a SnT, but they can SnT Dwight away for players who aren't in free agency. My mistake. 


               “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

              Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

              Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


              #13 RollingWave

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                Posted 06 June 2013 - 04:02 AM

                yeah, the faq says

                 

                • Starting in 2013-14, the team receiving the player cannot be above the "apron" ($4 million above the tax level) after the trade1, 2. A team above the apron can receive a player in a sign-and-trade if the trade reduces the team's payroll and the team finishes the trade below the apron.

                the word is THE player , meaning that they can't be on the main recieving end, but the thing is teams with space will jsut sign out right and teams without it will have huge trouble matching contracts as big as Howard's .



                #14 rockets best fan

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                Posted 06 June 2013 - 04:13 AM

                neither team can be over the apron after the trade is completed and the team receiving the sign and trade player can not be over the apron before the trade starts



                #15 2016Champions

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                Posted 06 June 2013 - 04:32 AM

                yeah, the faq says

                 

                the word is THE player , meaning that they can't be on the main recieving end, but the thing is teams with space will jsut sign out right and teams without it will have huge trouble matching contracts as big as Howard's .

                Teams would have trouble matching unless they have cap room. So this would work:

                 

                Lakers receive:

                T-Rob and Royce White 

                 

                Rockets receive:

                Dwight

                 

                The only problem is that there's no reason for us to do that, we can easily get a future first for this package and then sign Dwight with our cap room. 


                 “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

                Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

                Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


                #16 rockets best fan

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                Posted 06 June 2013 - 05:00 AM

                Teams would have trouble matching unless they have cap room. So this would work:

                 

                Lakers receive:

                T-Rob and Royce White 

                 

                Rockets receive:

                Dwight

                 

                The only problem is that there's no reason for us to do that, we can easily get a future first for this package and then sign Dwight with our cap room. 

                the lakers can not take players back in the deal unless they amnesty somebody first and even then the amount will be minimal.



                #17 RollingWave

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                  Posted 06 June 2013 - 05:20 AM

                  Teams would have trouble matching unless they have cap room. So this would work:

                   

                  Lakers receive:

                  T-Rob and Royce White 

                   

                  Rockets receive:

                  Dwight

                   

                  The only problem is that there's no reason for us to do that, we can easily get a future first for this package and then sign Dwight with our cap room. 

                   

                  Exactly, though I do chuckle at the possibility of Kobe being on the same team as Royce White. or Royce being in LA in general.

                   

                  the lakers can not take players back in the deal unless they amnesty somebody first and even then the amount will be minimal.

                  Hmmm... now that I look at it more.

                   

                  • Starting in 2013-14, the team receiving the player cannot be above the "apron" ($4 million above the tax level) after the trade1, 2. A team above the apron can receive a player in a sign-and-trade if the trade reduces the team's payroll and the team finishes the trade below the apron.

                     Barring a  Amnesty, they'll end up higher than the Apron  so they may really be unable to receive a player after all.



                  #18 rockets best fan

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                  Posted 06 June 2013 - 05:32 AM

                  that's what I'm trying to tell you guys.............the lakers can do a sign and trade, but can't receive any players in return and they can only do that by amnestying someone to get below the apron. so they are screwed. they can't do a deal with golden state without a 3rd team stepping in to absorb 20 mil in salary. it's highly unlikely the lakers can do any trades with D-12. they simply have to jump through to many hoops.



                  #19 RollingWave

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                    Posted 06 June 2013 - 06:01 AM

                    Your right, so if Dwight really make up his mind to get out of town, the Lakers are in deep, at least next year, though I guess if there's any year to suck next year is a good one.... except that I think they traded away their first pick for the next million year so them tanking just helps the suns / magic more .

                     

                    Though they would be under the apron just by amnestying MWP.



                    #20 rockets best fan

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                    Posted 06 June 2013 - 06:04 AM

                    Ya know, if we just sign Josh Smith this all becomes moot as we can easily squeeze his $14-$16M under the cap :rolleyes:

                     

                    Seriously though, is nobody concerned about Mark Cuban and the Mavs?  If ever there was a "Dwight-friendly" owner it's gotta be Mark Cuban--they're kindred spirits!  Besides, if you're talking about a player's "brand" how much better does it get than this: "The Big D".  That's got some marketing points, doesn't it? :lol:

                     

                    All this number talk has made my head spin, but if the Rockets have to relinquish the majority of their quality depth to land Dwight doesn't that diminish our appeal to him?  (I can't remember what the reality is anymore--too many scenarios to keep track of)

                     

                    I also believe Atlanta is a sleeper to snag him as well.  They have been forgotten, but they have the cap space, a quality PF in Horford and Josh Smith can choose to re-sign as well (presuming they are willing to take discounts to play with their best friends...not out of the realms of reality).

                     

                    I think that Houston has serious competition for ol' Dwight...

                     

                    EDIT: Sorry, forgot which thread I was in...thought this was the Howard thread...Re-read RBF's comment above in my voice...which reminds me...do you guys have voices for everyone on here too?  In my head, you all have different voices I read you in....is that weird? :unsure:

                    voices? believe it or not I do that sometimes :P as for D-12.............these are the teams rumored to be in the mix.......golden state, dallas, LA, Atlanta and Houston. this is how I view each teams chances

                     

                    golden state= 0% they can't do a sign and trade with the lakers. both teams have to much salary on the books

                     

                    Dallas= 0% they must sell D-12 on waiting a year till they open up cap room to contend and hope he wants to play with dirk who will be 35 next year(not washed up, but no doubt he's on the back 9)

                     

                    LA= 40% their plan is much like Dallas's. however they can give more guaranteed years and higher raises during the life of the contract. however plans have been presented that could offset the lakers advantage. so they must sell him on IT'S THE LAKERS.

                     

                    Atlanta= 5% to lure D-12 they must sell both him and cp3. miss either one and you also miss the other. besides D-12 would still be subject to state income tax there while he's making less money......that's a hard sell

                     

                    Houston= 55% best chance to win now. D-12 has stated this as a top selling point to him. young star with young supporting cast primed to chase rings. no state tax that allows the money to be actually in Houston's advantage. still play in a major market, but within a better environment.






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