Jump to content


Toggle shoutbox Shoutbox Open the Shoutbox in a popup

@  pharmag : (07 May 2013 - 10:17 PM) @2016, that is too true!  Of course it helps that South Beach, LA, and NYC teams have their cap room tied up for forseeable future (barring a D12 or CP3 bailing)
@  2016Champions : (07 May 2013 - 02:59 PM) I feel like we're becoming one of the most desired destinations now too, our organization is moving on up!
@  feelingsuper... : (07 May 2013 - 01:09 PM) That is a good sign when other organizations cherry pick your staff. I think the culture and system that the Rockets have put in place and begun to develop in the end will be far more important than any coach.
@  blakecouey : (07 May 2013 - 03:10 AM) Going to miss Sampson.  Everything Ive heard/read/seen say hes a great coach.
@  RollingWave : (07 May 2013 - 02:54 AM) Our D, at least in half court, was very sound, the transition part though... eeek.
@  2016Champions : (07 May 2013 - 02:50 AM) Sampson was the mastermind behind our underrated defense.
@  Richards : (07 May 2013 - 02:30 AM) We all knew Morey put together the team and McHale/Sampson coached the players. Sampson was a mastermind behind coaching.
@  feelingsuper... : (07 May 2013 - 02:08 AM) You got a right to your opinion but seems like Morey is the brains to me, thought that was obvious with the offensive scheme and all that. Rockets coaching is about leadership at this point which McHale possesses in spades.
@  Richards : (07 May 2013 - 02:04 AM) Well, by reading what players said throughout the season, Sampson seems to be the brain behind Rockets basketball.
@  feelingsuper... : (07 May 2013 - 01:52 AM) Of course he stays, what do you mean by that question? It is a strange question since what assistants do would never effect a head coach that way.
@  Richards : (07 May 2013 - 12:51 AM) Will McHale stay if Sampson got coaching job at another team?
@  RollingWave : (05 May 2013 - 09:37 AM) Irving still need to work on a few things (most notably defense), his performance considering his age is great.
@  Dan G : (04 May 2013 - 06:50 AM) Damn..who knew tonight was gonna be close out the series night? Four Games 6s and four closeouts.
@  feelingsuper... : (04 May 2013 - 06:28 AM) Whatever comes the next few seasons (barring injuries) it will be hard to match the unadulterated excitement we had watching these young Rockets this past year, it was definitely some kind of roller coaster ride...
@  thenit : (04 May 2013 - 04:36 AM) Irving will be nasty good when LBJ will return to Cleveland as the lost son
@  thenit : (04 May 2013 - 04:36 AM) good night everyone, have a great summer and I won't be posting until july 1st. Still a proud rocket
@  LMAOwais : (04 May 2013 - 04:35 AM) i really do hate the prospect of mulling over every little piece of FA news this summer, but life of  fan I guess.
@  2016Champions : (04 May 2013 - 04:35 AM) Watch out for Irving though, that kid is shockingly good for someone who just turned 21. I wonder who will be the better player in 2 years.
@  thenit : (04 May 2013 - 04:34 AM) so small margins
@  thenit : (04 May 2013 - 04:34 AM) Overall a good season though didn't expect to get this far, but its always hard when you get your hopes up, imagine if that ball KD shot in game 3 didn't fall

Photo

Kevin Love


29 replies to this topic

#1 2016Champions

2016Champions

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,403 posts
  • LocationVirginia, USA.

Posted 04 May 2013 - 05:03 PM

Would you like to see him in a Rockets uniform? It has been pretty outspoken about how things have gone as you can see here, and it makes sense that the Wolves would be open to trading him if they think he will walk in 2015.

 

Even if not this off-season, we could make it happen before the trade deadline with a package of Thomas Robinson and whoever we get via FA (Josh Smith or Millsap are most likely if Dwight stays in L.A.)

 

He's only 24 years old and has already shown that he has the potential to be a top 10 player in this league. In the 2011-2012 season he averaged 26 points and 13.3 rebounds, he ranked top 5 in RAPM, but due to injury he only played 18 games this season. Despite a few injuries, he has already played 287 games in 5 seasons, and I think he has a very promising future.

 

I think we're a championship caliber team with his addition, we would match up very well against every team out there and be a nightmare on the boards.

 

 

Discuss. 


 “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


#2 thejohnnygold

thejohnnygold

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,176 posts
  • LocationAustin

Posted 04 May 2013 - 06:14 PM

Well, the first thing I notice is that he is actually tied for 5th in RAPM with none other than Josh Smith.  Their splits for offense and defense are essentially mirror opposite with Love a 4.7 on offense and 1.5 on defense.  Smith is 1.3 on offense and 4.9 on defense.

 

Acquiring Smith bolsters our defense and our offense as he will conceivably be a third or fourth option on offense and when Josh Smith is your 3rd or 4th option that is a good thing.  During the '09-'10 season (before the Hawks were completely disassembled) he posted a 21 PER and shot only 7 three pointers all year.  Being surrounded by better talent allowed him to focus on what he does best.  The situation should be similar in Houston with every other position looking strong right now.  As I have said before, we managed to score at an elite level without a functional power forward so anything he provides is gravy on that end.  Meanwhile, that high defensive RAPM surely indicates he will shore up our defense to a very healthy level.  He also is an excellent passer/rebounder.  Total effect on the team is very, very good.

 

Acquiring Love, on the other hand, bolsters only the offense.  We already score at an amazing pace and there are only so many shots to go around.  His offensive contributions will come at the expense of someone else's.  Further, his rebounding contribution will be less substantial than the stats indicate as we already grab 75% of the defensive rebounds available with Asik.  They will split the boards, but the total should be about the same.  If we are to believe RAPM, his defense leaves a lot to be desired--which is the one area we need to improve.

 

Acquiring Love costs us assets whereas Smith does not.  We lose other pieces in the process of acquiring a one-sided player who doesn't improve our area of need.  Morey himself has said, (paraphrasing) "have need...sign player....have need...sign player".  We need defense.

 

"But his three point shooting will help overall because it spreads the floor for Harden and Lin."   Sure it will.  It will also put him away from rebounding position on the offensive end.  It relegates Mr. Love to a "three and no D" maxed out PF.  Not sure I want that for my max money.

 

There is more than one way to generate offense.  Getting to the rim and finding open threes is the name of the game.  Running a high post attack with multiple looks and cutters will create the same effect.  Now, if we want to run this with Love then ok, but he doesn't score nearly as well in the post as JSmith does.  Love also falls short in comparison to Smith in transition offense and dribble penetration. 

 

If you want the spacing so Harden/Lin can continue to slash and dish then we should just grab a Steve Novak.  Way cheaper and does everything you want Love to do.

 

To recap: Three point shooting can be found cheaper, the rebounding will not be significant due to Asik's presence, and his lack of defense ignores our biggest need at the position.  Kevin Love is very good, but he also falls under the category of big stats guy on a bad team...beware the numbers....



#3 timetodienow1234567

timetodienow1234567

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 566 posts
  • LocationAlabama

Posted 04 May 2013 - 06:53 PM

If we were to get Dwight Howard, I would LOVE going for Kevin Love. But having Asik and Love I don't like. I think we need to do more PnR and with Asik's inability to catch the ball and Love's not earth-shattering athleticism, i don't think it would be as effective. Having Howard and Love along with Lin and Harden would give us a core to win. Of course we would have to give up Asik/Parsons/TRob for Love. So I'd be a little hesitant about giving up Parsons but Minny would demand him in a hypothetical trade.


Why so Serious? :D


#4 rockets best fan

rockets best fan

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,326 posts
  • Locationhouston

Posted 04 May 2013 - 07:31 PM

I like love, but what he would cost is my reservation. I'm still not big on j-smith either, but at least he won't cost anything but cap space.



#5 2016Champions

2016Champions

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,403 posts
  • LocationVirginia, USA.

Posted 04 May 2013 - 07:35 PM

JD, you make alot of good points, I just have a few gripes:

 

Josh Smith tied Love for 5th in RAPM in 2012, but this season Josh Smith fell out the top 15 in RAPM due to a drop on both ends of the floor, his increasingly bad shot selection is the obvious reason for the drop offensively, but the bigger concern to me is the huge defensive drop which is likely the result of decreased effort on help defense (something even Zach Lowe has made note of). Even in the playoffs (including the elimination game shockingly) Josh Smith showed appalling effort (by his usual standards) on the aspect of help defense, he would overplay his own man so much that he wouldn't even hedge on pick and rolls. As much as I don't want to believe it, Josh Smith's biggest selling point has taken a huge hit. 

 

While it's true that our defense was weak this season, that's more a product of our turnovers more than anything else because turnovers lead to fast breaks for the other team. I don't know where to find the numbers, but I've heard from Morey in an interview with Lowe that we have the best half court defense in the league while Asik is on the floor. Kevin Love averaged only 2.3 turnovers per game in 2012 despite an increased role, and having a guy like Love who can get points without turning the ball over is something that will factor into making our transition defense better. Also, according ot RAPM, Kevin Love was listed as an above average defender in 2012 which is a huge improvement from 2011--a testament to his hard work among other things.

 

Being a guy who spreads the floor is not the only reason Love fits into our offense, he is also arguably the best outlet passer in the league, you can see him grab rebounds and get into form to pass all in one motion. This ability of his would make a great compliment to our fast paced offense. 

 

As for dribble penetration, having 3 guys on the floor capable of doing that is already plenty, and Kevin Love's spacing will give those 3 guys room to do their thing. On the other hand, with Josh Smith and Asik, it becomes alot easier to crowd the paint to prevent dribble penetration. With Smith we would be running horns all day, and I think Golden State showed (when Harrison Barnes replaced the injured Lee) how much better the offense can flow in a spaced out offense as opposed to horns. 

 

Morey himself has said, (paraphrasing) "have need...sign player....have need...sign player".

And he also said you need a top 10-20 player to win a championship, and your chances greatly increase if you have two top 10-20 players. I do believe Kevin Love is a top 10 player, where as Josh Smith seems to be falling out of the top 20 with his decreasing effort on help defense. In that sense, Kevin Love is more of a need than Josh Smith is.


 “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


#6 Cooper

Cooper

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 343 posts

    Posted 04 May 2013 - 08:30 PM

    I think part of smiths drop in offensive efficiency could be I large part because of his expanded role this year without joe Johnson. Here he would be back to 2nd scorer.
    But either way I would probably take love even though he seems to be hurt all the time.

    #7 thejohnnygold

    thejohnnygold

      Advanced Member

    • Members
    • PipPipPip
    • 1,176 posts
    • LocationAustin

    Posted 04 May 2013 - 10:16 PM

    I forgot to mention Love's outlet passing--I thought about it and then neglected to put it in.  He has always been excellent at that.

     

    There is a hole in your logic.  If you are going to discount Josh Smith's 2013 numbers while measuring them against Love's 2012 numbers then you are basing a lot on speculation.  We have gone over and over the red flag of Love's injury history.  He has missed a huge portion of games in his young career.  There is no telling what kind of player he will be upon return.  There is no telling whether he is capable of staying healthy.  Further, it is my opinion that Josh Smith has quit on his current team.  I think he can, and would, be re-invigorated here in Houston, but now that is just speculation on my part.

     

    I know about our half-court defense.  I thought I mentioned that above (another oversight?).  We ALL know about our half-court defense. 

     

    There will be fewer turnovers next year--I'm not worried about that as much either.

     

    I disagree that having another player capable of dribble penetration is not desirable.  The other team has to defend that--a mismatch will be found.  Good wing defenders don't grow on trees--as we have found out--so forcing a team to produce 4 of them or suffer the consequences seems like a viable plan of attack to me.  Plus, Smith will allow us to run those complex pick n rolls Miami does that you love.

     

    Josh Smith's standing in the league as a top 20 player is in limbo right now.  Somebody is going to gamble on it this Summer--I think they win that gamble.

     

    I'm sure Love's defense isn't the worst in the world.  At this point, anybody who can just be in the right place at the right time will be a huge upgrade.  So, no problem there.

     

    I know you pretty much have your mind made up on Love.  That's fine.  If Morey does go get him then I hope he does great for us.

     

    Can you post the link for the 2013 RAPM--I'd like to look at it.

     

    Also, why do you shorten my name to JD?  just curious....



    #8 rockets best fan

    rockets best fan

      Advanced Member

    • Members
    • PipPipPip
    • 1,326 posts
    • Locationhouston

    Posted 04 May 2013 - 10:33 PM

    I think he saw a few of us call you JG and got it confused :lol:



    #9 2016Champions

    2016Champions

      Advanced Member

    • Members
    • PipPipPip
    • 1,403 posts
    • LocationVirginia, USA.

    Posted 04 May 2013 - 11:59 PM

    JG,

     

    The 2013 RAPM can be found here but for some reason it was recently edited to only include the top 20 (which Josh Smith is no longer a part of). Apparently the guy who invented the statistic was "bought" by some team so he no longer posts it on the web, but hopefully someone else will taking over.

     

    Plus, Smith will allow us to run those complex pick n rolls Miami does that you love.

    If you're plugging someone into Bosh's role in those pick and rolls, doesn't Love seem like a closer fit than Smith? Alot of those pick and rolls/pops work because of Bosh's shooting ability. 

     

    I wasn't going to bother mentioning it, but Miami and OKC are the two best offenses in the league, and both of them have an elite mid-range shooting big man. Obviously there's alot more to why they score as well as they do, I heard those guys Lebron and Durant are pretty good, but that doesn't mean their floor spacing isn't a huge factor too. 


     “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

    Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

    Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


    #10 Paradise

    Paradise

      Member

    • Members
    • PipPip
    • 27 posts

      Posted 05 May 2013 - 05:51 AM

      I like Love a lot. Stretching of the floor and everything. But if we do manage to get Howard this offseason, perhaps a sign and trade to obtain LeMarcus Aldridge? That would be ideal in my eyes.



      #11 RollingWave

      RollingWave

        Advanced Member

      • Members
      • PipPipPip
      • 58 posts

        Posted 05 May 2013 - 10:21 AM

        Yes, but like most things, it does depend on the price a bit,  as in I don't see us being able to trade for him without offering Parsons +  (probably Lin given that you need salary to match.)  and more. that makes the proposition a bit more problematic.

         

        Also, he theoretically have 3 more year of contract, the Wolfs would need to get floored to trade him. I don't see us being able to put something like that through, unless your trading Harden strait up for Love or something. which kinda neglect the point.



        #12 thejohnnygold

        thejohnnygold

          Advanced Member

        • Members
        • PipPipPip
        • 1,176 posts
        • LocationAustin

        Posted 05 May 2013 - 04:26 PM

        I definitely don't want Smith playing Bosh's role :lol:

         

        I think he can do well off the pick n roll, hand offs, and as a cutter as he averages over a ppp on those according to mysynergy.  Iso, posts, and spot ups are where he is less consistent.  If Lin, Harden, and Parsons can draw the defense I think he will be a potent weapon cutting into open space and towards the rim.

         

        I think Love is a good player--certainly.  My concern is if he is the player we need and if he can stay healthy.

         

        I do like Aldridge as well, but acquiring him costs assets...

         

        Thanks for the link....I'm still a little dubious of this metric as it relies on +/- stats coupled with a "non-linear aging/experience curve".

         

        Some of the ratings I saw that raised an eyebrow:

         

        Lebron James 1.4 on defense

        Russell Westbrook .3 on defense

        Tim Duncan a 1.2 on offense

        Dwight Howard a .4 on offense

        Paul George .5 on offense

        LaMarcus Aldridge 2.0 on offense

         

        I just don't get it...what does this number equate to?  I just feel like it cannot correlate context/circumstance of applying a team stat like +/- to an individual player.  I think this stuff should only be applied to teams--that makes more sense.  From there, one could look for consistencies within to try and pinpoint causality.

         

        As an example, Steven has been harping on Greg Smith's +/- of -16 from the last Rocket's game.  Yet, when looking at the game log, it is apparent that the OKC guards got hot from outside, and then, once wing defenders started over compensating for that they began to drive past and get easy buckets inside.  None of it was directly related to Smith; yet, on his stat line there is a big old -16 +/-.  Further, on offense, he took zero shots (2-4 on free throws) while his teammates went on a binge of turnovers and missed shots.  Without watching each game the +/- stat can be very misleading.  Thus, when trying to use these overall ratings I just feel like they are not very useful.



        #13 feelingsupersonic

        feelingsupersonic

          Officer

        • Moderators
        • 819 posts
        • LocationHouston, TX

        Posted 05 May 2013 - 08:02 PM

        The one reason I am undecided about Love is because I have probably only ever seen a couple of his games. Is he an All NBA player or a great stats/bad team guy?

         The 2013 Red94 Fantasy Basketball League Champion


        #14 2016Champions

        2016Champions

          Advanced Member

        • Members
        • PipPipPip
        • 1,403 posts
        • LocationVirginia, USA.

        Posted 05 May 2013 - 08:16 PM

         I just feel like it cannot correlate context/circumstance of applying a team stat like +/- to an individual player

        Yeah, this stat is supposed to be used in conjunction with the eye-test. For example, Tony Parker and Conley's have a high defensive RAPM but alot of that has to do with the fact they're on good defensive teams. Obviously they wouldn't be as effective defensively if they were on the Blazers. The same could be said about Rondo though who I think is an overrated defender, he's obviously a good defender for a pg but he's not the best (he gets beat alot but his team mates are always there to help him), Chris Paul and Avery Bradley are definitely better.

         

        As long as you're using alot of the "eye-test" (50-80%) and a large sample size (at least 2000 minutes) then there's no reason why you can't say this stat is thought provoking at the very least. 


         “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

        Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

        Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


        #15 RollingWave

        RollingWave

          Advanced Member

        • Members
        • PipPipPip
        • 58 posts

          Posted 06 May 2013 - 05:34 AM

          <p>Can anyone understand the new sign and trade rule in the CBA nowadays, it's an amazing heap of mumbo jumbo that mostly seem to suggest making a sign and trade nowadays is close to impossible.&nbsp;</p>
          <p>&nbsp;</p>
          <p>Again back on Love, I just don't see a realistic match in trade unless one of the players we have now plays a lot better than he did next season (which is more than possible, but if that was the case then would you seriously want to still trade?) and even then, matching contracts would be a huge huge issue assuming that we're not trading James Harden to Minni</p>

          #16 2016Champions

          2016Champions

            Advanced Member

          • Members
          • PipPipPip
          • 1,403 posts
          • LocationVirginia, USA.

          Posted 06 May 2013 - 05:50 AM

          This is a rough idea of what I'm thinking we might be able to make happen, a 3-team trade at the trade deadline or off-season of 2014:

           

          Team X receive:

          Paul Millsap/Josh Smith (on the premise we sign one this off-season)

          Filler (a player from Wolves to make salaries work)

           

          Wolves receive:

          Team X first round pick

          Houston Rockets first round pick

          Filler (a player from Team X to make salaries work)

          Thomas Robinson

          Terrence Jones (if necessary)

           

          Rockets receive:

          Kevin Love

           

          Personally, I just don't see anyone beating that deal, and I think Wolves would take it even if we don't include Terrence Jones (greedy of us but it's possible).


           “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

          Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

          Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


          #17 RollingWave

          RollingWave

            Advanced Member

          • Members
          • PipPipPip
          • 58 posts

            Posted 06 May 2013 - 10:03 AM

            hmm so..

             

            Team X essentially trade a first round pick for a guy they could also sign this off season?  I guess it's plausible if that team X is a team well over the cap or something. 

             

            The Wolfs get 2 first rounder (though most likely of the back end variety). a filler and 2 fairly decent young player. that seems fair enough if Love makes it clear he's not resigning. though not exactly world beating unless T-Rob and/or Jones shows a lot more next year (quite possible though.)

             

            Rockets loses a first round pick, 2 young players, a filler, plus another PF for Love... hmmm.. 

             

            It's a well conceived trade, but need quite a few things to happen to work IMHO, that team X need to be in a specific cap situation, Kevin Love need to clearly want out, and no one else tries to match with a better young player or something.

             

            It's something to keep in mind obviously, but like most things they shouldn't hinge their hopes on it.

             

            But yeah, theoretically Lin / Harden / Parsons / Love / Asik would be..... quite awesome, especially if Lin get a little better and/or works better with Harden.



            #18 RollingWave

            RollingWave

              Advanced Member

            • Members
            • PipPipPip
            • 58 posts

              Posted 06 May 2013 - 10:20 AM

              Although, I should also snark that if the Wolfs have both Josh Smith and Rubio, boy Thomas Robinson will get a loooooot of rebounding chances :P all they need is to sign Monte Ellis and it'll be perrrrrrfect ;)



              #19 2016Champions

              2016Champions

                Advanced Member

              • Members
              • PipPipPip
              • 1,403 posts
              • LocationVirginia, USA.

              Posted 06 May 2013 - 11:00 AM

              Team X essentially trade a first round pick for a guy they could also sign this off season?  I guess it's plausible if that team X is a team well over the cap or something. 

              Either team X didn't have cap space, or they simply didn't get to sign Smith/Millsap because he signed with Houston. 

               

              The Wolfs get 2 first rounder (though most likely of the back end variety). a filler and 2 fairly decent young player. that seems fair enough if Love makes it clear he's not resigning. though not exactly world beating unless T-Rob and/or Jones shows a lot more next year (quite possible though.)

               

              Rockets loses a first round pick, 2 young players, a filler, plus another PF for Love... hmmm.. 

              I think it's a similar offer to what we gave OKC for Harden, even arguably better. And if you see it from the perspective that we get Millsap/Smith for free anyway, plus the fact a roster is never the sum of all parts meaning a top 10-20 player is more valuable than 5 top 30-100 players, we come out like gangbusters again.

               

              It's a well conceived trade, but need quite a few things to happen to work IMHO, that team X need to be in a specific cap situation, Kevin Love need to clearly want out, and no one else tries to match with a better young player or something.

              I think those things can happen. Love has been disgruntled for a while now, he has a history of negative tweets and comments that cause speculation he will walk in 2015 such as this one: 

               

              "I haven't been in the playoffs yet," Love says. "I'm looking at my contract in the eye of two years from now, and if I haven't been to the playoffs – or it's been one playoff berth – well, it's going to be tough to say, 'Oh well, I'm going to stay here and continue to rebuild.' "

               

              http://sports.yahoo....-200009299.html

               

              Bill Simmons also thinks Kevin Love is going to be traded: 

               

              "Kevin Love WILL be traded. It’s inevitable. It might happen this summer, it might happen during next season, but it’s going to happen." - Bill Simmons

              http://punchdrunkwol...will-be-traded/

               

              And if things don't work out, there are other players in the league we can go for (eg. Aldridge). 


               “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

              Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

              Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


              #20 bboley24

              bboley24

                Advanced Member

              • Members
              • PipPipPip
              • 95 posts

                Posted 06 May 2013 - 01:29 PM

                This is when stats and numbers need to go curbside.  Kevin Love is what our team needs.  For me, this is no debate.






                1 user(s) are reading this topic

                1 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users