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@  feelingsuper... : (01 May 2013 - 08:41 PM) Harden flu like symptoms, wonder how that is going to turn out?
@  2016Champions : (01 May 2013 - 04:52 AM)
@  Richards : (30 April 2013 - 10:42 PM) Lin was shooting with left hand. Thanks Sefalosha for making JLin left hand stronger. :)
@  2016Champions : (30 April 2013 - 06:02 PM) Lin participated in conditioning and shooting--game time decision.
@  2016Champions : (30 April 2013 - 05:31 AM) @JasonCFriedman 30m
Harden when asked about his struggles tonight: "well I did have a double-double."
@  2016Champions : (30 April 2013 - 05:10 AM) I mean iso attacking the rim is okay, but not iso step back J
@  2016Champions : (30 April 2013 - 05:09 AM) If the pick and roll doesn't work then pass, don't go iso smh
@  2016Champions : (30 April 2013 - 05:08 AM) Harden was driving me crazy this game.
@  pharmag : (30 April 2013 - 04:42 AM) +/- is such a screwy stat, but I do think Parsons was most effective when Harden was on floor, which is probably why.  Also, he had 7 TOs in first half and only had 3 in 2nd.  That is definitely a good sign
@  miketheodio : (30 April 2013 - 04:35 AM) harden is somehow +9 with 10 turnovers
@  bboley24 : (30 April 2013 - 04:33 AM) we beat the refs.
@  pharmag : (30 April 2013 - 04:31 AM) Haha they win the game on defense and a rushed attempt by Ibaka
@  bboley24 : (30 April 2013 - 04:31 AM) asik.
@  miketheodio : (30 April 2013 - 04:30 AM) PRAISE ODIN
@  pharmag : (30 April 2013 - 04:28 AM) If this goes into OT, then we may be watching scrubs play each other lol...
@  miketheodio : (30 April 2013 - 04:25 AM) fml
@  pharmag : (30 April 2013 - 04:22 AM) Put him back on Durant
@  pharmag : (30 April 2013 - 04:22 AM) They need to put Garcia back in.  Improves offense and if he fouls out, so be it...
@  pharmag : (30 April 2013 - 04:21 AM) Ugh...if we lose this game, I may die lol
@  bboley24 : (30 April 2013 - 04:20 AM) who is this Kevin Durant guy?

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35 seconds, up 2 with possession, what would you do?


43 replies to this topic

Poll: 35 seconds, up 2 with possession, what do you do? (14 member(s) have cast votes)

What would you do?

  1. Run as much clock as you can before trying to score. (3 votes [21.43%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 21.43%

  2. Run a quick play so even if they score you will have the last possession. (5 votes [35.71%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 35.71%

  3. Doesn't matter if it takes 5 seconds or 20, just get a good shot. (6 votes [42.86%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 42.86%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 2016Champions

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 05:00 AM

This is what happened in game 4 in the 4th quarter, Harden opted to waste the clock and fortunately we won. Ibaka missed a very easy putback that would have put the game into overtime. Despite the result, I'm not sure wasting the clock was a smart decision. Seems like alot of coaches make the same decision in this situation, why?

 “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


#2 thejohnnygold

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 03:25 PM

There's no guarantee of success.  I voted for running the clock down and shooting.  The reason is I don't want to give Kevin Durant the ball back at all.  In an ideal situation, we run that clock down and either score or grab the rebound with 8-10 seconds left and they have to foul.  In a shootout with Kevin Durant, I don't want to see what he can do....I already know.



#3 pharmag

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    Posted 30 April 2013 - 03:28 PM

    I voted for taking the quick shot.  Mind you quick is not chuck it at the rim.  Sure you have to play defense longer on the ensuing possession, but you already have the 2 point lead so guard the 3 point line and try to force a long contested 2.  Then even if they get it you have about 10 seconds to get a good look to win.



    #4 2016Champions

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    Posted 30 April 2013 - 03:58 PM

    I agree with Pharmag. No matter how good Durant is, if he only gets one shot and we get two, we have an obvious advantage. If you notice, Chris Paul will go with option B every single time, and Paul is no stranger to winning close games.


     “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

    Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

    Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


    #5 thejohnnygold

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    Posted 30 April 2013 - 04:12 PM

    That's fair, but chris paul can actually score in crunch time.  Two Harden Iso's vs. Durant?  Are you kidding?  A 2 for 1 in this particular scenario just doesn't make sense to me.

     

    Trying to keep the ball away from Durant is the equivalent of going for it on fourth down in the NFL to seal the victory because you know your defense can't hold the opponent from scoring for the win.

     

    If we had Chris Paul I would feel differently...but we don't.



    #6 2016Champions

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    Posted 30 April 2013 - 04:36 PM

    I'm not suggesting we use Harden isos. If I was coach I would run decoy pick and rolls to disguise the real pick and roll, and we need counters (just quickly swing to ball to the weak side) when defenses snuff it out. 

     

    Regardless of what we do, two possessions is always better than one. 


     “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

    Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

    Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


    #7 pharmag

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      Posted 30 April 2013 - 04:42 PM

      That's fair, but chris paul can actually score in crunch time.  Two Harden Iso's vs. Durant?  Are you kidding?  A 2 for 1 in this particular scenario just doesn't make sense to me.

       

      Trying to keep the ball away from Durant is the equivalent of going for it on fourth down in the NFL to seal the victory because you know your defense can't hold the opponent from scoring for the win.

       

      If we had Chris Paul I would feel differently...but we don't.

      For our particular situation, I get your logic.  However, I do think the team need of a learning curve must be considered.  I would say in most situations, 2 for 1 is your best bet.  If you drain the clock to where Durant gets the last shot, he is the guy who can hit the 28 ft 3 pointer with a hand in his face to win the game.  If you do 2 for 1, even if you end up giving up a ridiculous 3 pointer (see game 3), you still have the opportunity to win it with a 2.  They won't learn how to close without playing it out.



      #8 ale11

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      Posted 30 April 2013 - 05:28 PM

      Usually, Harden's logic is to go 2 for 1, unless it's the 4th quarter. I think he should stick to that plan: 2 for 1 is the best option, especially since Harden isn't making those shots (the only one I remember going in actually didn't go in: Jermaine O'Neal's goaltending). We are much more proficient when we go for it as fast as possible. Besides, if OKC misses the shot as well, they'll foul us and that would be game for us.



      #9 thejohnnygold

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      Posted 30 April 2013 - 06:25 PM

      Right, i forget that the original post is the "hypothetical" what to do.  Ideally, we are confident that we can score on consecutive possessions and play some decent defense so 2 for 1 is logical. 



      #10 rocketrick

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        Posted 30 April 2013 - 06:41 PM

        Interesting, second guessing after a Rockets playoff victory! My take on this is definitely, with a 2 point lead and your team is the #8 seed and you are playing against Kevin Durant and the #1 seed, the object is to give Durant as few opportunities as possible in the waning seconds of the game, particularly when we are up by 2 points. That is precisely what occurred. In fact, Durant, after quickly scoring OKC's last 5 points in the prior 2 possession sequences, took a grand total of 0 shots from 35 seconds forward.

        I was at Game 3 and witnessed the boing, boing, boing 3 point shot by Durant that took 4 seconds off the clock and that turned out to be the game winning shot.

        And if you read Coach McHale's comments in the pressroom after game 4 he specifically stated the play out of the time out with 35 seconds left in Game 4 was for Harden to drive into the lane and either create his shot or kick out to the open shooter. Harden did try to penetrate the lane and OKC played stellar defense. Still, Harden did create an open look, it was basically an uncontested shot from the free throw line area. Afterwards, Coach McHale indicated he thought that Harden could certainly have passed out to an open shooter as well. In this particular case, Harden had 2 good choices to make and he chose to shoot the ball rather than pass out probably because he had made a sweet move and created an opening. If that shot had swished the netx, believe me, this topic wouldn't even be discussed today.

        Besides, Harden already had 10 turnovers. Wouldn't it be a wiser choice just to hang on to the ball and shoot the open shot that you created vs. possibly making a bad pass, etc.

        #11 Steven

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          Posted 30 April 2013 - 08:30 PM

          I say give it to Hardin let him Iso and pick up the win.

          #12 thenit

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            Posted 01 May 2013 - 12:17 AM

            I say give it to Hardin let him Iso and pick up the win.

            Yea and that has been working great huh ? Only time he hit a winner was when O'neal made a boneheaded goaltending attempt.

            In this series 0 for 3



            #13 pharmag

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              Posted 01 May 2013 - 01:24 AM

              Wish Harden would remember that one of the very few game winners he actually hit (its the only one I can actually recall) occurred with a Asik screen, and the shot was taken early enough that the rolling Asik had a good shot at put-back if Harden missed...



              #14 teko

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                Posted 01 May 2013 - 03:47 AM

                This is what happened in game 4 in the 4th quarter, Harden opted to waste the clock and fortunately we won. Ibaka missed a very easy putback that would have put the game into overtime. Despite the result, I'm not sure wasting the clock was a smart decision. Seems like alot of coaches make the same decision in this situation, why?

                 

                I believe Harden started iso the ball way before that:

                 

                1:23 101-105 James Harden misses 26-foot three point jumper
                0:54 103-105 James Harden misses 24-foot three point jumper
                0:12 103-105 James Harden misses 20-foot step back jumpshot 

                 

                 



                #15 teko

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                  Posted 01 May 2013 - 03:54 AM

                  Also read this article:

                   

                  A better option than a superstar
                  http://espn.go.com/b...han-a-superstar

                  It shows stat that, in the crunch-time of the playoff 2011-12, superstars shot at 41.8%, non-superstar shot at 54.2%. That is, in playoffs, superstars shot much worse than non-superstars. It's not they are worse, but because they face much stronger defense.

                   

                  And don't forget that Harden had 10 TOs in last night's game. He wasted 3 chances (2 TOs and 1 offensive foul) in the 4th quarter before he missed the final 3 shots of Rockets. It's a terrible night for him, and a even much more terrible decision to let him iso the crunch time last night.



                  #16 teko

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                    Posted 01 May 2013 - 04:01 AM

                    Interesting, second guessing after a Rockets playoff victory! My take on this is definitely, with a 2 point lead and your team is the #8 seed and you are playing against Kevin Durant and the #1 seed, the object is to give Durant as few opportunities as possible in the waning seconds of the game, particularly when we are up by 2 points. That is precisely what occurred. In fact, Durant, after quickly scoring OKC's last 5 points in the prior 2 possession sequences, took a grand total of 0 shots from 35 seconds forward.

                    I was at Game 3 and witnessed the boing, boing, boing 3 point shot by Durant that took 4 seconds off the clock and that turned out to be the game winning shot.

                    And if you read Coach McHale's comments in the pressroom after game 4 he specifically stated the play out of the time out with 35 seconds left in Game 4 was for Harden to drive into the lane and either create his shot or kick out to the open shooter. Harden did try to penetrate the lane and OKC played stellar defense. Still, Harden did create an open look, it was basically an uncontested shot from the free throw line area. Afterwards, Coach McHale indicated he thought that Harden could certainly have passed out to an open shooter as well. In this particular case, Harden had 2 good choices to make and he chose to shoot the ball rather than pass out probably because he had made a sweet move and created an opening. If that shot had swished the netx, believe me, this topic wouldn't even be discussed today.

                    Besides, Harden already had 10 turnovers. Wouldn't it be a wiser choice just to hang on to the ball and shoot the open shot that you created vs. possibly making a bad pass, etc.

                     

                    When the objective is "to give Durant as few opportunities as possible in the waning seconds of the game", it's quite a wiser's move to let the 10-TOs player handle the ball. 



                    #17 ale11

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                    Posted 01 May 2013 - 04:11 AM

                    Wish Harden would remember that one of the very few game winners he actually hit (its the only one I can actually recall) occurred with a Asik screen, and the shot was taken early enough that the rolling Asik had a good shot at put-back if Harden missed...

                     

                    Against San Antonio, it was a great play. And that would have worked even if Harden missed the shot, because, as you said, Asik was perfectly positioned to grab that rebound and dunk it.



                    #18 rocketrick

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                      Posted 01 May 2013 - 05:25 AM

                      When the objective is "to give Durant as few opportunities as possible in the waning seconds of the game", it's quite a wiser's move to let the 10-TOs player handle the ball. 

                       

                      Please explain, I don't understand your point.

                       

                      Also read this article:

                       

                      A better option than a superstar
                      http://espn.go.com/b...han-a-superstar

                      It shows stat that, in the crunch-time of the playoff 2011-12, superstars shot at 41.8%, non-superstar shot at 54.2%. That is, in playoffs, superstars shot much worse than non-superstars. It's not they are worse, but because they face much stronger defense.

                       

                      And don't forget that Harden had 10 TOs in last night's game. He wasted 3 chances (2 TOs and 1 offensive foul) in the 4th quarter before he missed the final 3 shots of Rockets. It's a terrible night for him, and a even much more terrible decision to let him iso the crunch time last night.

                       

                      I'm not a math whiz or anything, but couldn't the discrepancy in shooting percentage have a lot to do with comparing a large sample size with a small sample size? If I shoot the ball 5 times, and make 3, then I have a 60% shooting percentage. If I instead shoot the ball 50 times, but make 21, then I have a 42% shooting percentage. I used that last figure because over the last 12 years, all clutch shooters average as a whole make 41.7% of their shots? Is it because they are terrible shooters? Of course not! So would you prefer that I take the last shot of the game with my small sample size or put the ball in my best player's hands at the end of the game?

                       

                      The thing that everyone is missing is the fact that Harden is an excellent passer. True, lately he has been making the decision to keep the ball in his hands and take the last shot(s) rather than pass. Could be Harden's fault, sure seems like most everyone lately thinks that is the case. But put yourselves in Harden's shoes. If his 4 teammates are just statues the last minute of the game and not moving at all, what is Harden supposed to do? Pass the ball to one of the statues?



                      #19 miketheodio

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                        Posted 01 May 2013 - 05:29 AM

                        do you want durant with the ball for 12 seconds or 24?



                        #20 2016Champions

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                        Posted 01 May 2013 - 05:35 AM

                        Does it make a difference? 12 seconds is a lot of time. 


                         “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

                        Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

                        Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.





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