29 replies to this topic

[Jason]

You've heard it many times and it tends to be true to at least some extent. With that being said, here is where I see our current starters in terms of their defense:

Asik- great defender (perhaps the best defensive center in the NBA; I know others have more blocked shots and are more flashy, but I really don't know if they are better true defenders than Omer)
Parsons- very good defender. Easily our best perimeter defender in the starting lineup. He can guard 3 positions effectively.
Lin - below average defender. Struggles to move his feet on D and stay in front of his man. Gets steals, but actually has not been doing much of that the past few months either. Has a lot of room for improvement.
Harden-below average defender. I think this has been well documented on this message board. I'm not sure how much of this has to do with fatigue due to him being asked to do so much offensively, how much of it is effort, and how much is a lack of skill at this end of the floor. Either way, like Lin, he has a long way to go in this area.
Any PF we trot out there-below average. We just need to get a Real PF. That's all I have to say about this position.

I won't go through all of our bench players, but I do believe that Patrick Beverley is already one of the best defensive PGs in the NBA. He consistently stays in front of his man, is one of the best shot blockers in the league for a PG, gets a lot of steals, hustles, gets loose balls, and is very disruptive.

[2016Champions]

I wouldn't go as far as to say Beverley is one of the best defensive PG's in the NBA already, but he certainly has the potential to be in that conversation. In my eyes, the "elite defensive pgs" is a very short list. According to RAPM metrics (Reglized Adjusted Plus Minus) the only pg in the league who even comes close to playing DPoY caliber defense are Avery Bradley and Ricky Rubio, although Rubio only played 57 games so his sample size is smaller. You can take a look at every player's RAPM this season here: http://talkingpracticeblog.com/ but for convenience I will post some names below with their RAPM beside them:

 

Tony Parker 1.4 -- give Popovich a lot of credit for this too, his system brings out the best in Tony Parker

Mike Conley 1.1 -- no surprise here

Jason Kidd 1.4 -- the 2nd best defensive pg of all time, he lost his quickness but he still has his defensive smarts and instincts

Rajon Rondo 0.9 -- good, but far too often I hear people say he's a 1st team caliber defender and this is just not true

Mario Chalmers 1.4 -- He's obviously a good defender, but this good? Give Wade and Lebron some credit for help D

Jeremy Lin -0.2 -- Yes, that's a negative unforunately. But he has improved alot so I'm sure it will be a positive next season.

Patrick Beverley -0.1 -- His defensive energy and shotblocking is great, but he's not a stopper. Doesn't get much help though.

James Harden -1.0 -- Horrible.

Avery Bradley 2.1 -- Even Wade and Joe Johnson struggle to even get past half-court when Bradley is guarding them. Amazing D.

Rick Rubio 2.2 -- Keep in mind he only played 57 games and smaller sample sizes can exagerrate results, but I do think there's some validity to this from what I've seen.

[thejohnnygold]

If I'm not mistaken these statistics are more of a measure of how a player functions within the context and capacity of their team as whole.  Thus, it is no surprise that the Rockets players have lower scores as the hole at the PF position sinks the ship and takes everyone down with it.  Meanwhile, teams with solid defensive bigs generate higher scores on the perimeter.  We already have Asik, and once we get anybody who can play effective D beside him the numbers for our guards will increase de facto.

 

I know you like this metric, but it needs the correct context--otherwise, it is akin to a red herring.

[xsamc1]

Jason, Beverly often gets called for fouls due to his aggressive D and I've seen PGs blow past him. There's definitely room for improvement. But he does an excellent job rebounding and applying pressure and I love his energy.

[2016Champions]

If I'm not mistaken these statistics are more of a measure of how a player functions within the context and capacity of their team as whole.  Thus, it is no surprise that the Rockets players have lower scores as the hole at the PF position sinks the ship and takes everyone down with it.  Meanwhile, teams with solid defensive bigs generate higher scores on the perimeter.  We already have Asik, and once we get anybody who can play effective D beside him the numbers for our guards will increase de facto.

 

I know you like this metric, but it needs the correct context--otherwise, it is akin to a red herring.

Yep, I believed the comments besides the players implied what you said. Thanks for clarifying so articulately.

 

With that being said, good defensive team mates can make a good defender look better, and vice versa, but only to a certain degree. If you put Beverley on the Celtics, it won't make him look like Avery Bradley, at best it will make him look like Jrue Holiday (0.7) and even that might be a stretch.

 

No one is suggesting we stop watching the games because we somebody invented a decent metric, it's still very important to watch games and apply at least 50% eye-test to our analysis. Without context, even the best statistics are practically useless, but in context they can be useful and worth bringing up in discussion. Hopefully we can one day get to the point where all this between the lines talk doesn't need to be reiterated everytime someone brings up a statistic for discussion.

[Jason]

I wouldn't go as far as to say Beverley is one of the best defensive PG's in the NBA already, but he certainly has the potential to be in that conversation. In my eyes, the "elite defensive pgs" is a very short list. According to RAPM metrics (Reglized Adjusted Plus Minus) the only pg in the league who even comes close to playing DPoY caliber defense are Avery Bradley and Ricky Rubio, although Rubio only played 57 games so his sample size is smaller. You can take a look at every player's RAPM this season here: http://talkingpracticeblog.com/ but for convenience I will post some names below with their RAPM beside them:

Tony Parker 1.4 -- give Popovich a lot of credit for this too, his system brings out the best in Tony Parker
Mike Conley 1.1 -- no surprise here
Jason Kidd 1.4 -- the 2nd best defensive pg of all time, he lost his quickness but he still has his defensive smarts and instincts
Rajon Rondo 0.9 -- good, but far too often I hear people say he's a 1st team caliber defender and this is just not true
Mario Chalmers 1.4 -- He's obviously a good defender, but this good? Give Wade and Lebron some credit for help D
Jeremy Lin -0.2 -- Yes, that's a negative unforunately. But he has improved alot so I'm sure it will be a positive next season.
Patrick Beverley -0.1 -- His defensive energy and shotblocking is great, but he's not a stopper. Doesn't get much help though.
James Harden -1.0 -- Horrible.
Avery Bradley 2.1 -- Even Wade and Joe Johnson struggle to even get past half-court when Bradley is guarding them. Amazing D.
Rick Rubio 2.2 -- Keep in mind he only played 57 games and smaller sample sizes can exagerrate results, but I do think there's some validity to this from what I've seen.

Good post. Im surprised to see Beverley rated so
low. What is your basis though for saying Lin has "improved a lot" on defense? Any stats to back this up? I have seen him greatly improve in one area this season, which is shooting. Defense, not so much.

[2016Champions]

Unfortunately I don't have stats to back up that Lin has improved defensively, but I have seen him play good stopper defense against the likes of Kobe, Jennings, and Andre Miller in spurts. It's just like you said, sometimes he has good defensive games and sometimes has has bad ones. It's a matter of consistency, and by my observations, Lin was getting more and more consistent defensively towards the end of the season. Don't expext Lin to single handedly stop Westbrook though, it's Lin's first time in the playoffs and that's a task even the mighty Avery Bradley wouldn't be able to accomplish.

[Ostrow]

I've been saying this since Bradley left UT. If he was the PG of both teams (his and the opponent's) the ball would never cross half court. He is that good on the ball, and that poor of a dribbler.

[Jason]

Unfortunately I don't have stats to back up that Lin has improved defensively, but I have seen him play good stopper defense against the likes of Kobe, Jennings, and Andre Miller in spurts. It's just like you said -- sometimes he has good defensive games and sometimes has has bad ones. It's a matter of consistency, and I felt that Lin was getting more and more consistent defensively.

Did you really just use Lin and "stopper defense" in the same sentence? Come on now. I have Never seen Lin play "stopper defense"

[2016Champions]

I did say "in spurts" lol. Here are some snippets of what I've seen:

 

[thejohnnygold]

2016, I was just trying to bring more context to what you had already provided--not everyone who reads these is as familiar with the metric as others.

 

I am honored to have been added to your passive-aggressive signature line

[2016Champions]

I don't know if it's passive-aggressive, I'm no Dr. Phil, but I do think keeping these reminders in my signiture can save us the trouble of reminding others on every seperate occasion.

 

I would love to discuss context, but I'd like to do it in the specific sense rather than the general sense. For example, I'd rather discuss if Beverleys RAPM is deflated by the lack of help he gets from Harden, as opposed to discussing in general how a player's RAPM could be higher or lower if they had different team mates or a different system.

 

By keeping these reminders in my signiture, we can skip the discussion of general context and move right onto the discussion of specific context. Hopefully that makes sense, I'm no where near as articulate as you are.

[thejohnnygold]

Sounds good....and your articulation is fine.

 

I do think Harden's defense sinks the teams' numbers on the whole.  His help defense does nothing except to get him just far enough out of position for his assignment to get open looks (and often knock them down).  On any basketball team, if one player is incapable of playing defense (or just unwilling) it forces the other players to spread the efforts out more thinly as they have to compensate for the weaknesses and voids created.

 

Thus, the Rockets are playing the game with 2 open holes in their defense (Harden and whoever is at PF).  One is due to lack of effort and the other is due to lack of experience/know-how.  To me, this is a testament to the other three players as their play will improve (as you noted) once we get a capable PF and will improve lots once Harden gets over himself.

 

A side note: does anyone else ever find themselves worrying that James Harden may be the second coming of Baron Davis (I keep telling myself it's just the beard making me think that)?  Davis was notoriously lazy and unmotivated throughout his career.  They actually share a similar playing style and frame as well.  When motivated, Davis was arguably one of the best players in the league....the rest of the time he left a trail of crushed hopes and fan despair in his out-of-shape, arrogant wake.  Please, don't let this be the case....

[feelingsupersonic]

I am not worried about Harden I just believe (as you know very well johnnygold) he is that tired physically. Can we even begin to imagine how mentally fatigued he is. On a smaller scale Parsons was asked to shoulder more of a load and his defense has also slipped. I believe if Morey gets these guys some help defensively then everyone's defense will improve.

[Steven]

Defense leads to boring basketball.

[thejohnnygold]

I am not worried about Harden I just believe (as you know very well johnnygold) he is that tired physically. Can we even begin to imagine how mentally fatigued he is. On a smaller scale Parsons was asked to shoulder more of a load and his defense has also slipped. I believe if Morey gets these guys some help defensively then everyone's defense will improve.

 

Yeah, it's almost like they are doing this in stages.  They've got the offense going and next year it will be time to get the defense caught up. 

 

There is a domino effect that occurs and Houston's dominoes have all fallen down.

 

I'm still a believer that James Anderson is going to be an excellent back up (with the potential to wind up starting on a different team down the road)...he does all the little things well and can score...why can't he give Harden more rest?  Just checked his stats, he got 8 minutes in the last game, but it was all in garbage time.  I'd like to see him get some run with Lin, Parsons, Jones, and Asik...I think that is a sneaky good line-up.

[thejohnnygold]

Defense leads to boring basketball.

 

(Initiate Sarcasm)  Yeah, the all-star games are riveting! (Sarcasm Ended)

 

Seriously though, I love watching defense--it was one of my favorite aspects of playing the game.  There is nothing better than shutting down an opposing player--especially one that does a lot of trash talking.

[2016Champions]

Speaking of shutting down an opposing player who does a lot of trash talking.

 

"We're going to win in six." - Brandon Jennings

 

In game 2 Jennings went 3 for 15  to score 8 points lol

[thejohnnygold]

Indeed

[Jason]

Defense leads to boring basketball.

See spurs championship teams. Man I hate the stinkin spurs. I can't wait till Duncan retires and they suck.