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@  bboley24 : (10 May 2013 - 02:18 PM) MDK
@  RollingWave : (09 May 2013 - 10:01 AM) The west is such a brutal conference though, I mean if the Heat was in the West, it's probably at least a 30% chance they don't make it to the finals either. almost everything is good enough that if enough things lineup right for a brief stretch your done.
@  2016Champions : (09 May 2013 - 04:35 AM) I've been saying ppl need to stop sleeping on the Spurs, but if they lose this series I'm going into deep slumber on them. Like Demolition Man cryonically frozen slumber.
@  blakecouey : (09 May 2013 - 03:31 AM) Well Hack-A-Bogut is going to get the Spurs back into this game.  They should've been put away, big shots falling again tonight.
@  blakecouey : (09 May 2013 - 02:55 AM) I don't know if he realizes it, but they're the same age whether they win or lose.
@  blakecouey : (09 May 2013 - 02:55 AM) "If/when these guys win tonight we cant no longer call these guys young" - Shaq on The Warriors.
@  pharmag : (07 May 2013 - 10:17 PM) @2016, that is too true!  Of course it helps that South Beach, LA, and NYC teams have their cap room tied up for forseeable future (barring a D12 or CP3 bailing)
@  2016Champions : (07 May 2013 - 02:59 PM) I feel like we're becoming one of the most desired destinations now too, our organization is moving on up!
@  feelingsuper... : (07 May 2013 - 01:09 PM) That is a good sign when other organizations cherry pick your staff. I think the culture and system that the Rockets have put in place and begun to develop in the end will be far more important than any coach.
@  blakecouey : (07 May 2013 - 03:10 AM) Going to miss Sampson.  Everything Ive heard/read/seen say hes a great coach.
@  RollingWave : (07 May 2013 - 02:54 AM) Our D, at least in half court, was very sound, the transition part though... eeek.
@  2016Champions : (07 May 2013 - 02:50 AM) Sampson was the mastermind behind our underrated defense.
@  Richards : (07 May 2013 - 02:30 AM) We all knew Morey put together the team and McHale/Sampson coached the players. Sampson was a mastermind behind coaching.
@  feelingsuper... : (07 May 2013 - 02:08 AM) You got a right to your opinion but seems like Morey is the brains to me, thought that was obvious with the offensive scheme and all that. Rockets coaching is about leadership at this point which McHale possesses in spades.
@  Richards : (07 May 2013 - 02:04 AM) Well, by reading what players said throughout the season, Sampson seems to be the brain behind Rockets basketball.
@  feelingsuper... : (07 May 2013 - 01:52 AM) Of course he stays, what do you mean by that question? It is a strange question since what assistants do would never effect a head coach that way.
@  Richards : (07 May 2013 - 12:51 AM) Will McHale stay if Sampson got coaching job at another team?
@  RollingWave : (05 May 2013 - 09:37 AM) Irving still need to work on a few things (most notably defense), his performance considering his age is great.
@  Dan G : (04 May 2013 - 06:50 AM) Damn..who knew tonight was gonna be close out the series night? Four Games 6s and four closeouts.
@  feelingsuper... : (04 May 2013 - 06:28 AM) Whatever comes the next few seasons (barring injuries) it will be hard to match the unadulterated excitement we had watching these young Rockets this past year, it was definitely some kind of roller coaster ride...

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Is Jeremy Lin the Long-Term answer at PG?


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155 replies to this topic

#141 huitlacoche

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    Posted 27 April 2013 - 05:50 PM

    Kobe was a lottery pick. Lin was undrafted.

     

    Kobe is 6'6 and, at the time, had a 38 inch vertical. Lin is 6'3 and likely can't jump as high.

     

    Kobe grew up in Italy. Lin in California.

     

    Kobe speaks Italian. Lin does not.

     

    Kobe had a short rap career. Lin likes to sing along with the church choir.

     

    Should I continue?

     

     

    Yeah because I'm the one who compared Lin to Kobe in the first place.  No wait, that was you.



    #142 manmythlegend

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      Posted 27 April 2013 - 06:04 PM

      Lin will not be as difficult to trade as some think, particularly if the Rox keep him through next season. His large expiring final year contract will be highly sought after by teams looking to clear cap space after the 2014-15 season.

      This will be the ideal scenario for the Rox, who will have one more season to evaluate Lin before making any longterm decisions. This will be ideal for Lin, who will realize after next season if playing for McHale is in his best interests.

      My unrelated commentary about Beverley: He's a good player, but his style of play is not conducive to consistent production over an 82 game regular season +/- playoffs. He's best as a change of pace guard on offense and irritant on defense. I'll eat my words if he ultimately becomes a multiple All-Star point, but I just don't see it. Part of his success this season was due to the fact that he was an unknown commodity that teams didn't gameplan for. It will be very interesting to see his production going forward in this series now that he has the full attention of the Thunder.

      #143 manmythlegend

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        Posted 27 April 2013 - 06:07 PM


        Yeah because I'm the one who compared Lin to Kobe in the first place. No wait, that was you.

        Never compared him to Kobe, just used him as an example of other players who struggled in their playoff debut.

        #144 thejohnnygold

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        Posted 27 April 2013 - 06:59 PM

        Again, the majority of teams in the NBA are set at PG for the foreseeable future.  Boston is only on the list because of the volatile relationship they have with Rondo.  I just don't think it is a very good market--especially with Eric Bledsoe hitting the open market next year...a lot of teams have their eyes on that prize and won't bite on Lin until that dust settles.

         

        Including Terrence Jones in any trade just furthers my disagreement on this idea.  He has shown a huge amount of potential and of the three PF prospects we have is most likely to pan out, IMO.

         

        Lin has two more years on his contract and the odds are we aren't winning a title either of those years regardless of who we bring in.  We lack reasonable depth, experience, and talent.  Letting him develop here is the best option--barring a miracle trade.  I think once our youth gets more experience we will have the talent needed and I believe Lin will have improved significantly by then.  Lin is not the problem--it is the way the offense is being run that hurts us.  Lin should be handling the ball more and Harden needs to take on more of a Kevin Durant role playing off of him.  This would maximize their strengths while minimizing their weaknesses.

         

        I think the only way we trade lin and asik while bringing in Howard AND still having cap room is if we sign and trade for Dwight...which I find incredibly unlikely.



        #145 LashtonBryth

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          Posted 28 April 2013 - 04:17 PM

          I really don't understand why people want Lin to handle the ball more.  He literally cannot dribble more than twice with his left hand before he has to pick the ball up or switch back to his right hand.  Go back and watch game 1 and see the Thunder force Lin to his right toward the baseline where he either has to dribble back to his left or pick the ball up, and Lin decides to throw the ball cross court right to Durant instead.  Multiple times last night Lin dribbled the ball to his left, then had to pick the ball up after a dribble or two and wait for someone to run to him so he could get rid of it.  It's time to take off the Linsanity tinted glasses and ask yourself why McHale prefers the ball in Beverley's and Harden's hands instead of Lin's.



          #146 thejohnnygold

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          Posted 28 April 2013 - 07:16 PM

          I never put on the Linsanity glasses.  We all agree that he needs to work on that part of his game--and most of us believe he will improve that over the Summer.  Lin is much more effective as the aggressor with a pick n roll partner.  Our pick n roll has but one dimension right now and defenses know how to snuff it out.  Again, I believe that over the Summer this will also get some new wrinkles that will improve its effectiveness.

           

          It sounds like your mind is made up.  That's fine.  Aside from your dirty dream trade, what other possibilities do you think are out there for Lin?  I gave you my run down--which was fairly bleak.  What's your take?



          #147 LashtonBryth

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            Posted 28 April 2013 - 09:40 PM

            I really have no idea what Lin's value is, especially as an 8 million a year player.  There have been good stretches this season where Lin has played really well, and stretches where he hasn't look like a starter.  I do believe he is tradeable as he is a young guard with more than a season worth of experience that has shown ability that ranged from below average to borderline all-star.  Because his play has fluctuated so wildly since he burst onto the scene, it would be hard to predict how much value he has to any particular team, especially since I'm sure consistency in a player is important.  I think the Rockets would have to get rid of one of their younger players to trade him, personally, but there might be teams that covet his particular style as a scorer off the bench or might want someone like Lin that can run pick and roll well as a starter.  If the Rockets traded Lin and Thomas Robinson, they'd save 13-14 million in cap space and could probably find a suitor.



            #148 2016Champions

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            Posted 28 April 2013 - 09:59 PM

            Lin has all-star potential imo, he could put up Ty Lawson numbers one day while playing better defense. 


             “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

            Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

            Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


            #149 RollingWave

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              Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:59 AM

              Given

               

              A. where the teams is (good start but still a year or 2 off from serious contention)

               

              B. contract situation of the players. (both Lin and Bev are still on 2 more years of contract. Lin's above average paid but not by a lot, Bev's a huge steal)

               

              C. the likilhood of a star caliber PG coming through the door without gutting the team (like... 5% ?) 

               

              It seems pretty obvious that baring unforseen events Lin's going to stay next year, and this question would sort of play itself out, either he gets better , or he doesn't, if it's the later it's obvious that he'll probably not play out his contract in Houston, if it's the former .. then the question is how much so.  if he gets to like... a 17-18 PER  .140+ WS/48 type guy, I think he'll almost surly play out the contract, if it's more like 16 PEr  .120ish WS/48 type guy, that's a tougher question to answer.

               

              He can get to the rim well and finish reasonable well,  his 3 P shot is no longer as much of a liability as before,  defensively he seems fundamentally sound most of the time, the missed rotations happen, but it's hard to seriously tell if that's totally on him or not.

               

              As Rahat pointed out, the biggest thing for him is really the ball handling, a lot of his other problems stem from this too, if he gets this down, he should be fine.

               

              Looking at the bigger picture, the projection hasn't changed that much as it was before the year, only that we got off to a better start than expected (but to keep things in perspective, we made the playoffs by 1.5 game and health was really on our side in comparison.)  This was always going to take a couple years, Lin's play this year suggest he's clearly a NBA player, the question remains if he's a legitmate starter on a good team. will be answered next year, which wasn't unexpected either when you look back and consider that he was a guy coming off a big injury on a totally new team (literally, the whole cast changed.)



              #150 miketheodio

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                Posted 29 April 2013 - 03:50 AM

                i dont think lin will be a rocket by the end of next season. his great games can be counted with 2 hands. even more completely unproductive games. a bunch of subpar games that outnumber his serviceable games. he's great at driving in the lane and has an ok shot. makes some great passes sometimes, but then completely craps the bed. terrible handles and goes into panic mode more than one should like.

                he isn't a d leaguer. to me he just seems average. something seems off about him. no confidence. how many times do you want to hear "i need to get better"?

                #151 2016Champions

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                Posted 29 April 2013 - 05:20 AM

                Rumor is that the Rockets owner is in love with Lin, and you can probably guess why (he's a goldmine), so I would be shocked if he isn't still in a Rockets uniform after next season. Here's something I found:


                1. If Linasanity can improve occupation rate from current 85% to 90%, that is about $58,000 extra per game, or $5 million extra in regular season (assume average $65/ticket).

                2. Knicks boosted by 70% last season due to Linasanity. Let us assume that Rockets only boost ticket price by 20% next season.  That is $20.1 million for regular season.

                3. If Rockets enter playoff, that 5 minimum game income is extra $10 million.

                4. Courtside ad: 1.2 million.

                5. Broadcast income unkown.

                6. Jercy and other item sales, neglected.

                 

                So Linsanity's contribution to Rockets bottom line is some where from $20 million to $36 million. 


                Read more: http://keepingscore..../#ixzz2Rpz5tMQZ

                 

                And I've heard rumors that the numbers are much, MUCH, better than predicted. Unfortunately for Daryl Morey, all trades must be approved by Leslie Alexander (the owner). Sorry folks, lets just be glad he's actually a decent player with potential to become even better--there are plenty of worse ways to spend 8m.


                 “Every [player] decision has two main components, the scouting or traditional analysis and the numbers … depending on the situation, you weight them differently.” - Daryl Morey

                Small sample sizes exaggerate effects. 

                Do not read statistics as gospel. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or see.


                #152 RollingWave

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                  Posted 29 April 2013 - 06:06 AM

                  He (and many others on the team too) works very hard and have overcame much to make it to the NBA, so it is not a huge stretch to think that they'll work their ass off this off season and get better, I'd agree that if he still puts up a meh season next year that he probably be gone, but I generally would assume he'll get better due to most of the intangible things we know of him (and again, most of the rest of the team.)  But of course, this part you'll never know until next year.

                   

                  For a team thrown together on opening day with a lot of conflicting skill sets and a lot of roster shakeup during the year, they did remarkably well. I'd like to see at least ONE season of what they can do with all the proper training camp and lineup in place.



                  #153 teko

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                    Posted 30 April 2013 - 04:52 AM

                    Rumor is that the Rockets owner is in love with Lin, and you can probably guess why (he's a goldmine), so I would be shocked if he isn't still in a Rockets uniform after next season. Here's something I found:



                    Read more: http://keepingscore..../#ixzz2Rpz5tMQZ

                     

                    And I've heard rumors that the numbers are much, MUCH, better than predicted. Unfortunately for Daryl Morey, all trades must be approved by Leslie Alexander (the owner). Sorry folks, lets just be glad he's actually a decent player with potential to become even better--there are plenty of worse ways to spend 8m.

                     

                    That's something most netters in all forums never consider when they talked about "Lin's value."



                    #154 Freebird

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                    Posted 30 April 2013 - 01:22 PM

                    2016 - good call.  A player's value to the team extends beyond the court in most circumstances, and this is a great example of that.  We made Yao a wealthy man, but he made Les a wealthier one.  Just sayin.



                    #155 bboley24

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                      Posted 30 April 2013 - 01:58 PM

                      J Lin needs to figure out how to keep his dribble.  He picks it up on the outside wings consistently. 



                      #156 manmythlegend

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                        Posted 30 April 2013 - 02:47 PM

                        The question isn't necessarily "Is Lin the long term answer at point guard?", but "What do I (personally) want from Lin?".  History has shown that you don't necessarily need an elite point guard to win an NBA championship: since 1969, the number of point guards that were named Finals MVP can be counted on two hands: JoJo White, Dennis Johnson, Magic Johnson (3X), Isiah Thomas, Chauncey Billups and Tony Parker.

                         

                        That's not to say you can be mediocre at the position either; if anything, being a good defender, an effective passer and efficient outside shooter are all common traits to the starting point guards for the champions.  

                         

                        Lin has made strides in those regards but is far from being a finished product (in reality, NONE of the current Rockets are even close to being finished products either). He could learn some things from Beverley, particularly when it comes to activity on defense. No one knows what his ceiling is yet as a point guard for the Rockets; I'm certain the coaching staff don't know either where or IF Lin fits in long-term.  






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