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@  2016Champions : (17 June 2013 - 05:26 AM) I had a feeling Ginobili would regress to the mean.
@  Dan G : (17 June 2013 - 04:33 AM) Now I had no idea Ginobli was gonna pull a Wade and turn back the clock. I give Pop the majority of the credit for that.
@  Dan G : (17 June 2013 - 04:32 AM) I don't think it was too ballsy on San Antonio's part. With the way Splitter has been playing and since Miami has started Miller the last two games, I thought it was inevitable that Ginobli would start.
@  RollingWave : (17 June 2013 - 02:57 AM) I must say that both team had some serious ballsy lineup changes this series, Ginobilli start? and dominate?
@  2016Champions : (16 June 2013 - 09:26 PM) According to Dr. Klapper, treatment for Parker's hamstring will only last one half. Lateral movement and jumping will be a problem.
@  2016Champions : (16 June 2013 - 04:56 AM) Parker said Pop was very angry with him for the constant nagging insisting he can play, Pop really didn't want Parker to play. Just goes to show Pop knows best.
@  RollingWave : (16 June 2013 - 04:28 AM) Parker says his hamstring is almost shot , that would probably doom the Spurs if he can't play at least 80%
@  2016Champions : (15 June 2013 - 12:38 AM) Miami is 6-0 in playoffs following losses (outscoring opponents by 20.7 PPG in those games). They've won 12 straight games following losses.
@  2016Champions : (14 June 2013 - 04:50 PM) The Heat are notoriously slow starters. Once they get going it's like a snowball effect, they get more dangerous as they go along.
@  2016Champions : (14 June 2013 - 04:49 PM) My heart says SA, but my mind says MIA
@  rocketrick : (14 June 2013 - 11:06 AM) Anybody else going to San Antone for Game 5??
@  RollingWave : (14 June 2013 - 10:15 AM) The Heat is doomed / the Spurs is doom , repeat until game 7
@  2016Champions : (14 June 2013 - 06:28 AM) Now that Wade's knee doesn't seem to be bothering him anymore, Spurs are in trouble.
@  rocketrick : (14 June 2013 - 06:26 AM) Mark Twain once was quoted--Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated. Not sure that motivates the Heat but food for thought for whatever that is worth!
@  2016Champions : (14 June 2013 - 04:43 AM) What happened to Parker that second half? Hamstring caught up to him?
@  Ostrow : (14 June 2013 - 03:57 AM) Has Manu had any good playoff games?
@  RollingWave : (14 June 2013 - 03:50 AM) G4 was very interesting, both teams making big adjustments, but I think at the end of the day Wade's rejuvenation / dead cat bounce versus Manu 's continued suck is the difference
@  RollingWave : (13 June 2013 - 08:49 AM) @rocketrick lol good one. I honestly don't know what happens now, I was expecting Spurs to win G3 but not by THAT much
@  rocketrick : (12 June 2013 - 10:55 AM) I can't wait for Game 5 after the Heat burn the Spurs on Thursday night
@  RollingWave : (12 June 2013 - 06:52 AM) The amazing thing is this 2nd rounder and undrafted guy played like super stars while the best player ever an another sure fired HOF guy played like junk

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Is Jeremy Lin the Long-Term answer at PG?


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#121 Jason

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    Posted 24 April 2013 - 05:48 PM

    Lin is not a great defender he is about average or just below average, and that is due to some part as 2016 alluded to, Harden. Rockets are basically defending with 4,5 guys with harden. Even looking at rapm, with lin and beverley 1 tenth of a point difference and harden is 0.8 worse than Lin. Whats the point of scoring 30 points if you give up 30 on your own side? It negates what you do on the offensive end.

    Harden just has to make an effort he has all the tools. If Kobe can do it near the age of 40 in spurts at least Harden should be able to do it when he is 23.

    No way we should trade him though. He will be a top 5 scorer and the espn ranking doesnt include defense. Just look at the complete ranking.

    Also Omer bails Harden out a lot same for Lin.


    What I don't understand is that Harden was not considered a bad defender until coming to Houston, so what happened? Check out this assessment of Harden from Hoopshype.com:

    Position: G
    Born: 08/26/89
    Height: 6-5 / 1.96
    Weight: 220 lbs. / 99.8 kg.
    College: Arizona State '11
    Very creative and efficient scorer... Superb pick-and-roll player... Great feel for the game... One of the best slashers in the game... Gets lots of free throws... Unselfish... Creates for others... Excellent defender... Good competitor... Not an elite athlete... Already a star.

    Notice the "excellent defender" part. He is also pretty highly rated defensively in NBA 2k13, so what the heck happened???

    #122 Ostrow

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      Posted 24 April 2013 - 06:02 PM

      He is expending so much energy on offense that he is resting defensively.  When he wants to (which has been FAAAAAR to infrequently as a Rocket) he is a very good defender.  As the team develops and he trusts his teammates more offensively I think he will be back to a good defender.  Having a low post scorer would help him on the defensive end as well.



      #123 Jason

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        Posted 24 April 2013 - 06:04 PM

        He is expending so much energy on offense that he is resting defensively. When he wants to (which has been FAAAAAR to infrequently as a Rocket) he is a very good defender. As the team develops and he trusts his teammates more offensively I think he will be back to a good defender. Having a low post scorer would help him on the defensive end as well.


        Yeah, I think you're right

        #124 feelingsupersonic

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        Posted 24 April 2013 - 06:19 PM

        This whole team has no legs left look at the minutes the rotation players played last year versus this year. (a few of the guys in the rotation this year weren't even in the NBA last year!) In addition to total minutes played the pace at which they played this year with no real dependable depth on the bench was way too much for this roster and there was no way they would be ready for the playoffs physically (and mentally). They are plain and simple out of gas.


         The 2013 Red94 Fantasy Basketball League Champion


        #125 2016Champions

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        Posted 24 April 2013 - 06:23 PM

        I agree with Ostrow.

         

        By my observations, Harden's defensive short comings have been a product of effort. I remember there were a couple of games towards the end of the season where his defense was very good, he was stopping penetration and blocking shots in transition. Unfortunately, 90% of the time during the regular season he justs coasts with a lazy defensive stance and lazily finding ways to not sprint back in transition. Here's something Zach Lowe said:

         

        Houston ranks 20th in points allowed per possession, and their perimeter defense
        has been leaky all season. Harden has emerged as the worst offender, not a
        surprise given that lots of guys regress on defense when asked to assume more
        responsibility on offense. Harden has several bad habits, including reaching
        when he should slide; jumping himself out of position very early against
        pick-and-rolls; and gambling for steals when he recovers toward his man after
        dropping down toward the foul line to help on penetration.

        The Rockets
        have even hidden Harden now and then on the weakest opposing perimeter player,
        forcing Carlos Delfino and Chandler Parsons — another serial gambler — into
        assignments above their respective pay grades. This isn't quite a crisis, but
        Harden needs to find a better balance to his game.

        http://www.grantland...g-all-star-game

         

        And here's John Hollinger's scouting report before the season started:



         

        Scouting report
        + Skilled left-hander who excels at pick-and-roll game. Prodigious drawer of fouls.
        + Left-dominant. Sees court well but turnover-prone. Good set shooter from 3.
        + Middling wing defender who rebounds well. Good hands, has cut foul rate.

        Analysis
        The second coming of Manu Ginobili, Harden technically plays shooting guard but is really a huge pick-and-roll point guard. His forays to the rim off the bounce are simply deadly, as he has a tight, low handle, exquisite passing skills, and an almost supernatural sense for how to draw fouls. Harden's 0.59 free throw attempts per field goal attempts was the best of any non-center, with his 84.6 percent mark from the line the cherry on top.

        Additionally, Harden was a fantastic finisher when he wasn't fouled, particularly going left. Harden had the best shooting percentage at the rim of any guard, converting an amazing 70.4 percent of his shots in the basket area. Again, this was in addition to all the fouls he drew. Virtually the only chance of stopping him was to force a turnover first -- he was in the bottom quarter of guards in turnover ratio and will give it away trying to split pick-and-rolls.
        Top shooting percentage at the rim, guards
        Player     Team     Pct.
        James Harden     OKC     70.4
        Gerald Henderson     Cha     68.4
        Arron Afflalo     Den     68.0
        Marcus Thornton     Sac     67.5
        Kobe Bryant     LAL     66.2
        Min. 150 attempts

        Meanwhile, his spot-up game has grown more deadly too: Harden shot 39.0 percent on 3s and took nearly half his attempts from out there. In a related story, he's become much more comfortable playing off the ball with Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant doing the ballhandling. Overall, his 66.0 true shooting percentage sits firmly in you've-gotta-be-kidding-me territory; naturally, the only perimeter player to top it was Ginobili, by eight-tenths of a point (see Ginobili comment). Harden also ranked fourth in the league in secondary percentage (see Chauncey Billups coment).

        The next step is upgrading his defense, which remains a vulnerability. Harden has cut his foul rate but it remains above average for a shooting guard, and he needs to defend star wing players to start with Durant and Westbrook. As it is he's the game's best sixth man and an All-Star talent, but he can still get better.

        I remember him being a good defender in college, so while he hasn't shown much of that in the NBA, I do think he will become a good defender again in time. For whatever it's worth, Josh Smith wasn't that great of a defender during his first few seasons in the NBA, it wasn't until around 2009 when his defensive potential really took flight.


        Don't be too quick to assume you're right and the experts are wrong. 

         

        "A fool who recognizes his own ignorance is thereby in fact a wise man, but a fool who considers himself wise -- that is what one really calls a fool." ~Gautama Buddha


        #126 thejohnnygold

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        Posted 24 April 2013 - 07:24 PM

        Ostrow, Feelingsupersonic, and 2016champs--all good posts!  That about sums up the whole issue.



        #127 thenit

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          Posted 24 April 2013 - 09:12 PM

          What I don't understand is that Harden was not considered a bad defender until coming to Houston, so what happened? Check out this assessment of Harden from Hoopshype.com:

          Position: G
          Born: 08/26/89
          Height: 6-5 / 1.96
          Weight: 220 lbs. / 99.8 kg.
          College: Arizona State '11
          Very creative and efficient scorer... Superb pick-and-roll player... Great feel for the game... One of the best slashers in the game... Gets lots of free throws... Unselfish... Creates for others... Excellent defender... Good competitor... Not an elite athlete... Already a star.

          Notice the "excellent defender" part. He is also pretty highly rated defensively in NBA 2k13, so what the heck happened???

           

          I was saying that he had all the tools to be a great defender and the lack of effort is the one holding him back. For me its inexcusable if he doesn't put in the effort in the playoffs which we will see in the coming series.

           

          I just think somemites if you score X amount of points but also don't defend, the points you scores get negated by your lack of defense, its a zero-sum game. Its just personal thing for me if you don't put in the effort. I rather Harden score 21 ppg and play defense than the 26  he has and play none.

           

          I agree with all of you that he is poor defender he WANTS to.



          #128 Ostrow

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            Posted 24 April 2013 - 09:15 PM

            A good analogy for what Harden has done this year is what Kobe did this year.  Definitely a down year for Kobe defensively, but that's because he was so focused on scoring as he felt that's what the team needed.  A lot of young guys aren't good defensively, however, they become worse defenders because of a lack of team defense.  Asik is the only guy on the Rockets who plays good help defense.  Beverly and Parsons are good on the ball, but they don't provide great help or recover back the their guys well either.  This lack of team defense makes Harden look worse as well.  Tony Parker is a perfect guy who shows the other side.  He plays within his role and has good defenders/system around him so his defensive stats look good.  It's not just Harden, it's the mentality of the team.  Effort does not make a team good defensively, SMART effort does.



            #129 2016Champions

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            Posted 24 April 2013 - 09:28 PM

            I don't think Harden even needs to do as much as he does offensively, I would prefer if he stayed within the offense making quicker passes and letting other guys make plays. I don't like how he stands about 10 feet behind the 3pt arc and stops the ball everytime he gets it. I would like to see him used the way Stephen Curry is used, where Curry will seemlessly switch from a ball handler to a corner spot-up shooter. Plus, I think the top of the 3pt arc is a horrible place to station someone who doesn't get back in transition. I would much rather see Parsons there. 


            Don't be too quick to assume you're right and the experts are wrong. 

             

            "A fool who recognizes his own ignorance is thereby in fact a wise man, but a fool who considers himself wise -- that is what one really calls a fool." ~Gautama Buddha


            #130 Ostrow

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              Posted 24 April 2013 - 09:33 PM

              That's why I included "felt that's what the team needed." I agree with you. His "spacing" frustrates the hell out of me.



              #131 Jason

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                Posted 25 April 2013 - 07:33 AM

                I think that when we finally get a Real PF this offseason (preferably Josh Smith), our team will be best by bringing Lin off the bench in a Terry/Crawford/Ginobli/JR Smith type role. I like Beverley out there with Harden and think that they are good compliments to each other in the backcourt. This would allow Lin to play about 10-12 mins per game without Harden on the floor, as the primary ball handler. He could drive, score, and create as wanted during this time. He could then play another 15-18 mins alongside Harden. I just think this would maximize his talents and make us a better overall team while allowing Beverley to set the early tone defensively. Thoughts?

                #132 manmythlegend

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                  Posted 26 April 2013 - 03:52 PM

                  It is too early to decide whether or not Lin will be the long term answer at point guard.  Most point guards take at least a couple of years before being able to take command of a team.  The encouraging things about Lin are his decent offensive production, mainly as the 3rd or sometimes 4th option on offense, his interior passing and his ability to get to the bucket. He needs to improve his ball handling, especially when he's gets trapped past half court, and his outside shooting has to become more reliable. I tend to think his weaknesses can be improved to the point where they don't become a liability...they may never be elite, but won't prevent him from staying on the court. 

                   

                  The team should figure out sometime by the All Star break next season if Lin is going to be the guy. If he doesn't improve or regresses, he'll be traded.  

                   

                  I think the real question is what, statistically, would Lin have to do for fans to be happy with him? Let's say he finishes next season at 15p/7a/3r/2s with shooting percentages of 45/36/80...would that be sufficient? The reality is he wasn't too far from those numbers this season and was producing at that rate after the All Star break.  

                   

                  If not for stats, then I suppose playoff performance would be the next metric?  Lots of good players struggle in their playoff debuts (anyone remember the Kobe Bryant air-balls in the playoffs in his rookie season?), especially when they have to do it on the road against one of the best two teams in the NBA. While Beverley has been outstanding thus far, I'm certain OKC hasn't game-planned for him (to the point that during a timeout in Game 2, OKC coach Scotty Brooks referenced Beverley as "that little guy getting inside and getting rebounds"...clearly if Beverley was a known commodity to the staff, he would not have used those terms). If Lin plays in Game 3, I expect him to have a good game, mainly because he just plays better at home.  



                  #133 huitlacoche

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                    Posted 26 April 2013 - 04:22 PM

                    Kobe was 18 at the time though.

                     

                    Lin is 24.



                    #134 RollingWave

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                      Posted 26 April 2013 - 05:31 PM

                      The answer is a lot less complex than we're making.

                       

                      Quite simply, If Jeremy Lin is only about this level going forward, then no, if he's can get better, mostly in protecting the ball and dribbling (which is where most of his problems stem from really) . then probably yes.



                      #135 manmythlegend

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                        Posted 26 April 2013 - 05:33 PM

                        Kobe was 18 at the time though.

                         

                        Lin is 24.

                         

                         

                        Kobe was a lottery pick. Lin was undrafted.

                         

                        Kobe is 6'6 and, at the time, had a 38 inch vertical. Lin is 6'3 and likely can't jump as high.

                         

                        Kobe grew up in Italy. Lin in California.

                         

                        Kobe speaks Italian. Lin does not.

                         

                        Kobe had a short rap career. Lin likes to sing along with the church choir.

                         

                        Should I continue?



                        #136 Stephen

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                          Posted 26 April 2013 - 07:14 PM

                          Re Harden,

                          Previous to Houston he was coming off the bench.

                          He was often going up against second-string SGs so his defense looked better.

                          Further,as a reserve he had to play hard in order to get minutes.

                          Remember,he was nailed to the bench in the Olympics by Coach K because he didn't play decent D. Coach K went w/Westbrook over Harden at back-up SG because of D.

                          In Houston,he's not only starting, he's our "transformational" player. Giving less than 90% on D isn't going to get him benched.

                          Also the Rockets' commitment to running leads to gambling for steals and leaking out as opposed to staying w/your man.

                          Factor in his bad knee/ankle/etc and his lack of commitment to D is understandable-not acceptable,but understandable.

                          Personally, I believe the Rockets are going to spend a lot of time in camp this Summer working on D.



                          #137 DrewinAbilene

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                          Posted 26 April 2013 - 07:35 PM

                          Is Jeremy Lin a long term solution for our point guard needs? I'd argue he certainly can be. His game works well with Harden, he's on a decent contract, and he's shown that his ceiling is high. Is CP3 preferable? Of course! But it is more important to upgrade the power forward spot than the  point guard position.

                           

                          Give Lin an off-season to improve his outside shooting and work on not turning the ball over as much. Remember that during training camp, the thought was that he was going to be the main facilitator and offensive go-to guy. Suddenly, he was relegated to a secondary scorer who needed to emphasize on distributing, shooting the three, and slashing to the rim for lay-ups or kick-outs. He needs time off the court to work on it. I'm pretty dang confident he'll be better next year, once he's better molded his game to the new team needs.



                          #138 LashtonBryth

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                            Posted 27 April 2013 - 02:55 PM

                            Jeremy Lin is not the long term solution for the Rockets and should be traded this offseason to make room for Dwight Howard (or whoever the Rockets end out getting).  Lin was acquired with the idea that he would be the focal point of the offense.  The trade for Harden has made Lin expendable because while Lin's skill-set wouldn't be bad as the focal point of an offense, it is sub-par for an off-the-ball point guard playing with a creator like Harden.  Lin's vision is limited to the things he sees in front of him:  he makes great passes around the basket and to cutters in his vision, but often makes silly passes trying to get the ball to guys on the three point line and ignores anyone not in his direct line of sight.  

                             

                            Beverley has more useful skills playing next to Harden.  Beverley is a great on the ball defender, which neither Lin or Harden are.  This free's the Rockets up to put Harden on the opponents worst offensive guard/wing until Harden actually starts to care about his defense.  Beverley also has an elite rebounding skill that fits very well with a Rockets team that wants to get out and run.  Beverley has been a better 3 point shooter than Lin in both the regular season and postseason, and Beverley can actually dribble and make moves with his left hand.  Beverley also turns the ball over much less than Lin.  Beverley is not the explosive offensive player Lin can be, but Lin's explosiveness requires him to have the ball in his hands, which is too often feast or famine for the Rockets.

                             

                            Let Lin go somewhere where having the ball in his hands at all times is ideal for that team.



                            #139 thejohnnygold

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                            Posted 27 April 2013 - 03:30 PM

                            First, I think we should keep Lin and let him finish developing.

                             

                            However, to go along with your post, getting rid of Lin requires a trade partner.  Who do we trade with and what do we get in return?

                             

                            The number of teams looking for a Scoring PG that is still a project making $8M per year is fairly small.  In no particular order, I would say that the Lakers, Boston, Dallas, Utah, and maaaaaaybe New Orleans are your only options.

                             

                            Maybe LA wants to swap Steve Blake + a re-signed A. Goudelock for Lin?  Is that a good deal?

                             

                            Will New Orleans give us Ryan Anderson straight up for Lin?  Doubtful as they have Vasquez and Gordon (who is like Harden) and they would be in the same boat we're in.

                             

                            A sign + trade with Utah for Millsap?  This might be the best option....

                             

                            Do you think Boston will trade Courtney Lee back to us for Lin?  Not likely.

                             

                            Maybe a sign and trade with Dallas for Mayo?  This is the second best option. 

                             

                            The problem is, both Millsap and Mayo are free agents that we can sign out-right.  Why give up the asset of Lin for free?

                             

                            I'm curious to hear your ideas....I'm just not sure there are very good options right now.



                            #140 LashtonBryth

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                              Posted 27 April 2013 - 03:51 PM

                              Most likely the Rockets will be forced to trade an asset like Terrence Jones to get someone to trade for Lin.  What is Lin's value?  How do other teams view his on the court abilities and his potential for bringing in ratings?  What moves are team's going to make this offseason and how does that affect the market for a player like Jeremy Lin? 

                               

                              My dirtiest dream involves the Rockets trading both Lin and Asik, bringing in Dwight Howard, and still having enough cap space to sign someone else like Milsap or Gordon.






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