395 replies to this topic

[Mario Peña]

Let's keep the facts straight fellow forum members, Smith is 6 foot 9 inches (with a 7 foot wingspan) and his PER is top 30 in the league not to mention his per 48 is 26 points and 13 rebounds in a slow/very average offense. Most of us that say do the trade have written that nearer to the deadline would be the best time to do it for multiple reasons. Realistically, Josh Smith alone would not turn the Rockets into anything resembling a playoff team no matter when he would be traded for during the season. With the Rockets as constructed he maybe gets you about 3 more wins over the course of 40 games, tops. I really believe there is way too much tendency among forum members to lean towards extremes. The Rockets are going to be pretty bad this year no matter what.

[Sir Thursday]

It's worth pointing out that Smith is a pretty good defender by all accounts. Apparently he really stepped up last year when Horford went down. And as feelingsupersonic says he was getting his stats in a pretty dodgy offensive system (Iso-Joe doesn't seem like a particularly conducive system for his skills). Saying he's 'only getting you 16/9' seems a bit disingenuous. It's probably not a trade worth making at this point just because we have so many young players in that position already. But if our depth had been at the wings instead of the frontcourt then I'd have said it was a deal worth making.

ST

[Alituro]

The proposed trade does nothing to help us clear our logjam at the 4, which is my only complaint about it. White is the most intriguing rookie on our roster IMO. We know what Jones can do and what spot he'll fill, same with Lamb. White is one of the biggest wild cards (potentially) that I have seen in this league for quite some time. If the deal must include him, then I say it's best to wait closer to the deadline to be sure. I would say GO on the deal now if it were to include Morris, Patterson, Martin and the pick. The post would be held down by Asik, Motie, Jones and Smith with White floating around here and there looking for a home. Smith would be a great mentor for Motie in making the transition from Euro to NBA style play. However, I fear the team would be pretty good, ala Denver last season, and back where we left off, one star short of a contender. Acquiring Smith would mean exiting tank mode immediately, and I don't think we're ready to do that just yet, but I do like the player. Sticky situation.

[thejohnnygold]

PER is not a stat I yet embrace. Perhaps someday, but not yet. When I watch Smith I see Rasheed Wallace, but shorter....he settles for jumpers time and again, shoots too many threes (at a 25% clip), and seems lackadaisical at times. Maybe that lethargy came from playing with "Iso-Joe"....I know the feeling.

I am still against the trade, but I have been thinking about using him at the SF position. If his defense is as good as I hear he could be a monster against SFs in this league. He and Parsons can platoon that postition and Smith does improve the offensive production. With Motie, Asik, PPat, and Jones I'm feeling pretty good. I like him as a third offensive weapon that can play with Motie inside and let Lin slash and dish either direction for easy inside buckets. Meanwhile we'd have two 7-footers plus the 6'9" Smith (with 7' wings) to rebound. Assuming Lamb can be even a top 10 SG, or better, then we have a solid line-up. In that light, I dig the trade...as long as we keep the toronto pick...I think that has more value.

Also to be noted, I am still a fan of stinking this year and getting two solid picks next draft.

[thejohnnygold]

Hmmm, this is interesting: http://www.hoopsstat...rstats/12/5/eff

Smith's stats here are closer to 19 and 10. They also rank him as the sixth "most efficient" power forward in the league. Again, taking into account he played with "iso-joe" I'd say his numbers have room to improve some. I also like that he gives you 4 assists and a couple steals and blocks every game.

OK, I'm converted. I'd trade for him....at mid-season....no toronto pick.

[DaDakota]

PER is vastly overated, it overemphasizes, offense, does not take defense into account much at all, and is an algorthim made up by a sportswriter to somehow guage a players ability while on the floor.

It is a tool that is somewhat useful, but as an argument solver, IMO, it is worthless.

IMO - right now there are no stats out there that accurately determine a players overall ability or worth to the game or team.

Too often these stats input is flawed, and thus the final output is flawed as well.

I prefer the eyeball test - where a seasoned eyeball is more valuable than PER.

DD

[Mario Peña]

Of course PER by itself is not the end all be all. No stat or test alone is the final verdict on any player and no one is arguing that a trade for Smith based solely on PER is a good idea. What I see here is that members are debating that if we could keep the Toronto pick and our lottery pick and /or we could keep the rookies out of it then perhaps you have an all star caliber player that is efficient, impacts many parts of the court including defense and in a few years could be the veteran that compliments the superstar and a couple young up and coming all star caliber starters (hopefully, one from this year and one from the picks, that's optimistic though but hopefully at least one). Once again getting Smith sometime during the middle third of the season ups the wins from about 2 to 4 tops. This roster is pretty bad and one all star player coming in mid season isn't going to move the needle much at all. This would be a chance to attain a piece. Now saying that I am fine if this does not happen as both outcomes have a potential to bear fruits down the road. Every choice facing Morey is not one that changes the franchise or leads to doom and gloom. This would be a middling transaction.

I see both sides of the trade here. No need to get to vested in this debate and honestly I am just a fan, getting overly upset or excited about moves before they happen is above my pay grade. Cheers Dakota, good topic.

[rockets best fan]

totally agree with fellingsupersonic for reasons to do the trade. the reason I wouldn't do it till the deadline is I do think smith can make this team a lot better. looking at his stat line doesn't really tell you everything abount him. if we got him he needs to play small forward where he becomes an instant mismatch to other teams. having him in the fold already increases our chances of drawing another star to play here. josh+star FA+promising rookies we already have in the fold looks pretty good to me. we could debate all day on if he's a star or not but bottom line is if aquired he becomes the rockets best player. its an upgrade to the team. another point I would like to bring out is everyone seems concerned with the raptors pick. next years draft won't be anything like this years (IMO). this draft had talent well into the twentys because it was really 2 years combined. a lot of college kids stayed in school because of the NBA lockout making this draft very deep. that won't happen next year. there will still be talent at the very top but you probably need to get into the top 6 to aquire them. the raptors pick will probably land around 9 or 10. believe me lowry is going to make them a better team. so you have to ask yourself what are you really expecting to recieve with that pick that will be better than josh is rite now. I do hate to lose white in the deal but as I said b4 he is just colateral damage. and as for martin it would be addition by subtraction.

[Stephen]

Josh Smith has never been an All-Star.

His Per 36 rebounds have been lower than Scola's every yr except last season-and Scola was hardly a rebounding machine.

That 16 and 9 he's supposed to be giving,he's done exactly once,this past season when the Hawks lost Horford for the yr.

He has a horrible tendency to wander outside and shoot jumpers he doesn't make.

The Rockets see Motie as their future PF,so why would they trade for Smith-and then re-sign him?
It would be the anti-Morey move.

[blakecouey]

It's worth noting Smith wouldn't likely be an all star in the west either, with Griffin, Love, Aldridge and Nowitzki taking the votes.

[Stephen]

Re PER.
Last season Smith had the best PER of his career at 21.1.
In the West the following PFs had higher PERs-Love(24.4),Griffin(23.4),Aldridge(22.7),Duncan(22.5),Nowitzki(21.7).
Other notable PFs-Gasol(20.5),Lee(19.7),Ibaka(19.0),Z Randolph(17.9 in an injury yr,previous yr 22.6).

PER 36 minutes last yr,Smith(9.8) out-rebounded Lee(9.3),Aldridge(8.0) and Dirk(7.3).
PER 36 minutes last yr,Smith(1.8) had fewer blocks to Ibaka(4.8) and Duncan(1.9).
PER 36 minutes last yr,Smith(19.2) out-scored Gasol(16.7),Randolph(15.9) and Ibaka(12.1).

Smith had the highest PER 36 minute rebound rate in his career,almost one rebound more,in the same yr Horford was out w/injury.
Of the PFs,only Gasol(1.3) along w/Ibaka,Duncan and Smith offers any strong rim protection.(Aldrige has hovered just above 1 a game for his career.)
Note that the Western PFs are doing it against each other in the West while Smith was putting up his against significantly weaker competition in the East.

[Johnny Rocket]

I don't know if I would trade for Smith, but perhaps that is the wrong question--why not sign him as a free agent? Let's suppose that Smith is willing to come to Houston; and none of the contending/big money teams have the money to sign him. Do you offer him a max contract? I believe that a max contract can only be for four years, so we'd essentially have Smith until he's 30. We'd keep all of our picks.

I think Smith is a very good player--he is excellent defensively, and with a frontline of Smith, Asik, and Parsons (and with Mottie and others off the bench), you'd have the makings of a great team defense. The downside is that the Rockets would lose a lot of their cap flexibility, and would almost certainly have to do some type of deal to relieve the log jam at power forward.

I'd love to have Smith on the team, but I don't think the Rockets should sign him unless they have some other deal in the works--say a sign and trade with Oklahoma City for Haden. A team like Harden, Lin, Smith, Asik, and Parsons--say with Mottie and Lamb off the bench--is very young and very good, with excellent size at every position.

[Mason Khamvilay]

duh.........no doubt about it. smith is better than just about anybody you could get with the raptors pick, even though I like white he would be colateral damage and martin goes without saying. this is a deal I would wait till the trade deadline to do if I were the rockets. that way smith won't keep us from getting a good draft pick. then next year we could end up with a high draft pick the bird rights to smith and the cap room to bring in another star.......say bynum maybe?

Do my eyes deceive me? RBF wanted us to trade for Josh Smith? 

[Mason Khamvilay]

I found Hollinger's player profile on Josh Smith (these things are hard to find without paying for insider):

 

JOSH SMITH, PF
Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections     PTS     REB     AST     PER     Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card     20.6     10.5     4.2     19.9    

Scouting report
+ High-flying lefty with underrated ballhandling skills. A terror in open court.
+ Mediocre shooter who forces long set shots. Good left-block post player.
+ Great shot-blocker and solid pick-and-roll defender. Makes mental lapses.

Analysis
Smith has become a heck of a player in spite of himself, posting career highs in points, rebounds and player efficiency rating (PER) during an All-Star caliber season. Speaking to his versatility, Smith ranked among the top 10 power forwards in eight different barometers: blocks and steals per minute, assist rate, pure point rating, points per minute, defensive rebound rate, usage rate and PER. Defensively, he's become much more than a weak-side shot-blocker, adding muscle and putting in productive minutes at center. Though he'll have some lapses he mostly plays hard, and his mobility lets him switch onto smaller guards easily.
Offensively, he shot 68.1 percent in the basket area and has become a beast on the low left block against smaller opponents. Unfortunately, his love-fest with 20-foot jumpers continues to sabotage his numbers. Smith only made 36.7 percent of his long 2s, yet attempted an amazing 411 of them last season, or more than six a game. In fact, only Kobe Bryant took more. Smith also took another 106 3-pointers and made only 25.5 percent of them.
So about half his shot attempts went to tries where he had barely a one-in-three success rate. You don't mind so much if he's taking this shot late in the clock, but with more than eight seconds left it's absolute madness. Opponents openly concede the shot, and fans in Philips Arena shriek "Noooooo!" as he winds up for it, but Smith is undeterred. The coaching staff strangely indulges him in this too.
As a direct result of the Js -- with a small assist from his wayward foul shooting -- Smith's TS% of 49.9 ranked only 53rd among power forwards, and offset a lot of the good he did in other offensive facets. It also has kept him off the All-Star team, as he's about halfway to the dubious honor of becoming the best player never named.

[Mason Khamvilay]

 

Before anyone accuses me of being misleading, please keep in mind this is a small sample size. Just because he scored 32 points this game doesn't mean he will average 32 points for a season 

 

Seriously though, I just felt like posting this video I just watched, I'm not insinuating anything. 

[Steven]

And if you look Smith stats are worse then the projections Hollinger had made. How can you be the number 1 and have worse stats then when you were the number 2? Proves his skills are eroding.

[pharmag]

And if you look Smith stats are worse then the projections Hollinger had made. How can you be the number 1 and have worse stats then when you were the number 2? Proves his skills are eroding.

Or proving that he is better playing off the ball rather than as primary option, which he would do in this system...

[Jason]

BRING J SMOOTH TO HOUSTON PLEASE! We will put up 120ppg with him while also being better defensively! Get it done Morey!

[rockets best fan]

Do my eyes deceive me? RBF wanted us to trade for Josh Smith? 

that was b4 I realized we already have better talent at that position.

[Mason Khamvilay]

that was b4 I realized we already have better talent at that position.

We played better with Patterson/Morris than we do with Greg Smith/Terrence Jones.