43 replies to this topic

[ChinaConor]

Hibbert is not a max player. Max players are (rather should be) superstars. Hibbert is on a Pacers team that is a lot like the Rockets are now, and do you consider them a legitimate contender for a championship?

The Pacers started Hill, George, Granger, West, and Hibbert this year. George, Hansborough, and Collison came off the bench.
Our best lineup was Dragic, Lee, Parsons, Scola, and Camby. At full strength, we would have Lowry, Martin, Budinger, Patterson, and Dalembert coming off the bench (unrealistic... but let's assume it for now).

If you switch Hibbert and Camby, have we gained anything but youth? Would we be any better? We would not be a championship contender, and 1/5 of our salary would be tied up in him for the next 5 years. Not to mention we would be strapped to get a true "best player on a championship team."

We would be betting an awful lot that Hibbert improved - dramatically.

I'd also like to point out Hibbert was drafted 17th. We pick earlier than 17th every year. I'd like to hope we can find our own Hibbert, much cheaper than max.

I agree. Adding Hibbert for the max basically is a move to finish 7th or 8th. For the Rockets to improve they must allow space for internal improvements of Morris, Parsons, and Patterson and find some difference makers in the draft. The goal should be toward fielding a contender in a couple of seasons. The way to do that is keep flexibility not to tie the team down to another good, but not great player. You don't want to give away max contracts to players that aren't going to be the best player on a contender.

[blakecouey]

We've been on the cusp of the playoffs for three years straight, using the draft and small trades in each year. How many more season do you want mediocrity? You say several? I say let's make an attempt, take a risk, and change it up. And if hibbert continues his improvement he could likely be the best player on a contender.

[majik19]

We've been on the cusp of the playoffs for three years straight, using the draft and small trades in each year. How many more season do you want mediocrity? You say several? I say let's make an attempt, take a risk, and change it up. And if hibbert continues his improvement he could likely be the best player on a contender.

I don't want to stay in mediocrity, but Hibbert guarantees us that we'll be stuck as the 7/8 team, at best, unless he improves quite a bit or we manage to get another star, which we need anyway.

[rockets best fan]

I don't want to stay in mediocrity, but Hibbert guarantees us that we'll be stuck as the 7/8 team, at best, unless he improves quite a bit or we manage to get another star, which we need anyway.

agreed. hibbert is not enough to push us into contender status. I think we can do better than him (still holding out on howard)

[areteejay789]

I think the problem with signing Roy to a max-contract is that it doesn't put us in contenders range on its own. Nor does signing Roy AND any other free agent other than DWILL, which isnt happening. If we can sign Roy and then trade for Gasol/Bosh/Melo/Aldridge, that team would contend, assuming we didn't give up too much. Say miami dont the title this year. I think they then offer bosh (quietly) around the league. We could offer Lowry, Bud, scola and dalembert and a first for Bosh. Im not a huge fan of his to be honest, but with Roy hibbert, he wouldnt have to do any of the dirty work, or the grind of playing centre. That gives us a lineup of:

Dragic/free agent
Martin/Lee
Parson/Morris
Bosh/PPat/Motie
Hibbert/Camby


from there we still have one pick left over, and dallas's top 20 protected, which we could pair with martin for an upgrade at SG. (sign and trade for eric gordon who probably doesn't want to play for NO?) we would still have a few assets, and be set in the front court for the next 3-5 years.

[rockets best fan]

areteejay789:
disagree that team won't win sh*t in the west. I don't see that team going toe to toe with the lakers. clippers or memphis and surely not okc. signing hibbert will only make us a runner up team not a contender. unless you are also picking up koby you are wasting time. I like hibbert, and he is a decent big man but he is not a star and would tie up to much of our money on a player who won't take us anywhere. if we only want to be 1st round fishing bait he can get us there, anything more I don't see it. in order to compete for championships you need a top 10 player in the league. the only one available (maybe) is howard. if we can't get him we should look at the draft.

[areteejay789]

In my suggestion we also pick up bosh, a top 25 player. twin towers like that always over achieve, and they complement each other very well.
i agree with you that hibbert doesn't take us anywhere on his own, and its only worth it if we can bring someone else in with him, i.e. bosh.

unless the clippers suddenly get much better, i think thats a better team all the way through than theirs, and very similar to memphis's...

as to the lakers, we would be constructed in a similar way, just minus Kobe but with much much better depth. And kobe/gasol are only going to get older.

Im not saying it's ideal, and Howard should still definitely be target number 1, but if we are only going to take a chance on players that are definitely better than the best team in the west, we will be waiting a LOOOONNG time until we find our own Durant and Westbrook in consecutive drafts.

[blakecouey]

In my suggestion we also pick up bosh, a top 25 player. twin towers like that always over achieve, and they complement each other very well.
i agree with you that hibbert doesn't take us anywhere on his own, and its only worth it if we can bring someone else in with him, i.e. bosh.

unless the clippers suddenly get much better, i think thats a better team all the way through than theirs, and very similar to memphis's...

as to the lakers, we would be constructed in a similar way, just minus Kobe but with much much better depth. And kobe/gasol are only going to get older.

Im not saying it's ideal, and Howard should still definitely be target number 1, but if we are only going to take a chance on players that are definitely better than the best team in the west, we will be waiting a LOOOONNG time until we find our own Durant and Westbrook in consecutive drafts.

Well said. Especially the last part, finding our down Durant or Westbrook in the draft will either take a huge stroke of luck or many many many years. Not to mention that guys like that aren't getting picked at 14, which means we need multiple horrific seasons.

Now, Hibbert alone might only be a slight upgrade to our team, putting us in the 7/8 spot but you've got to start somewhere. Ill take making the playoffs next year and continuing putting pieces together if it means more success NOW. The other way would be failing to make any big moves, whether its because our attempts failed or because we didn't find the guy we want, and finding ourselves at 9 again next year.

I won't be suprised if the first trade on our agenda is a try at Howard, and if that fails our second being another attempt for Pau. If we did get Pau, now are yall more interested in chasing Hibbert? That would be a decent frontcourt, although Pau is getting older hes still quality and I think he's an easier to attain piece than Bosh.

[Alituro]

I agree that we should add Hibbert if he can be had somewhat reasonably, but that addition alone isn't gonna loft us into contention. But rather than try to bolster the PF with Bosh or similar, I think we would more desperately need to improve our wing position. Assuming Martin is gone, our wings with Lee, Bud, Parsons and Morris are just way too young and weak offensively. And before we invest in the 4 position, I'd like to see what Motie could contribute first, keeping Scola on in a diminishing role and as mentor. I just don't see Bosh as a huge improvement over our current PFs, not enough so to make a difference. I'd almost be more supporting of chasing Hibbert and building around him rather than Howard for a few reasons. If Howard is only a 1 year rental, then he's not worth the investment. Howard is starting to show signs of injury, which may become chronic, or a convenient excuse to not play for a team he doesn't want to be on. Howard is now the best center in the league, but his game still needs work if he's to be a Hall of Famer, sadly I don't think he realizes this and doesn't work on his game as much as some do (Hakeem and Yao each added new pieces to their arsenal every year, Howard has remained the same.) If Hibbert has a work ethic similar to Yao's or Hakeem's. then that's a guy I want on my team. What wing players could the Rox covet to pair with Hibbert?

[pharmag]

Alituro:

That is how I feel. Hibbert is a year younger than Howard, but he has been in the league half as long. His work ethic and the improvement he has shown over those 3 years lead me to believe he has the potential to become a more offensively viable Howard since he can actually make FTs and can step outside the paint and hit a jumper.

At the 4, I definitely think you have to see what we have in Motie, and unless you get a good deal for Scola, it would be wise to keep him as a mentor. Instead, I think you should move PPat and try to draft a guy like Henson, if possible.

The wing players are our weakest area, solely because they are young. If Morris is able to develop into an offensive force at the 3 that rivals his production from college, that would bode well as I think he could at least become a 6th man type player. I think Parsons in the starting role is ok as long as we can upgrade our SG into a guy who can create for himself. He is a young player that consistently got better throughout the year. I think Bud needs to be traded if possible. He is developing a kinda "Steve Novak" reputation, making a plethora of 3's but not able to do much else to help the team.

At SG, Lee is a solid player, but can not be paired with Parsons (unless Parsons is able to develop a play-making ability on offense...or Lee). It is time for Martin to move on I think as he doesn't fit this offense.

I would like it if the team went after and landed Hibbert, resigned Camby and Lee (and maybe Dragic...sign and trade?), tried to get Mayo or Gordon (if failing, pursue SG by trading), traded Bud, PPat, and Martin, and managed to draft Henson and Meyers or Zeller, giving you the a young team that can grow and develop together.

PG Lowry/Trade
SG (Mayo/Gordon/Trade)/Lee
SF Parson/Morris
PF Motie/Scola/Henson
C Hibbert/Camby/(Meyers/Zeller)

Granted this is all hypothetical, but I think if this team is able to develop, you could have a championship contender for several years.

[rockets best fan]

pharmag:
I still disagree on hibbert, but I gotta admit I kinda like that team though. I still don't think it can win a championship for several years. but with some development who knows.

[Alituro]

pharmag:

What if we made a blockbuster with Indy and got Granger out of the deal? How would it look to have:

Lowry/Trade
Lee/Bud (or draft)
Granger/ Morris (or Parsons)
Scola/Motie
Hibbert/Camby/ (Leonard or Zeller)

I don't know what we'd have to give up, but Morey's got tons of assets, and I like that roster. I don't know why, but I'm not huge on Gordon, or not at all for Mayo. I think it's their size. 6'5" is about as small as I'd like to be at the 2 except in case of playing tandem PGs. I also don't think Parsons is ready to start at such an important position, I think he should be coming off the bench for a couple years while he develops his shot more and gets some consistent offensive moves. I like Lee and Granger on the court together because you don't give up much on either end of the court because one possesses skills the other lacks, same with pairing Parsons and Bud off the bench. We'd have a D and O wing on the floor at all times.

[pharmag]

pharmag:
I still disagree on hibbert, but I gotta admit I kinda like that team though. I still don't think it can win a championship for several years. but with some development who knows.

I think the reason I like him so much is because while both Howard and Hibbert are equally difficult to obtain, Hibbert has the work ethic and the attitude that I prefer over Howard. Also, while the two guys are the same age, Hibbert has been in the league half as long. I did some comparisons of Hollinger's Stats (I find them to be a little more definitive of contribution) between the two (HIbbert's 4th year vs. Howard's 4th year). This is what I found:

FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb BPG PF/G PER

Howard ('07-'08) .599 .590 22.0 15.0 1.4 61.9 6.3 15.1 21.4 21.7 2.1 3.3 22.61
Hibbert ('11-'12) .497 .711 17.2 11.8 2.2 53.9 10.7 12.7 19.4 16.6 2.0 3.0 19.35

*Ast=% of player possessions that end in assist
*TO=% of player possessions that end in turnover
*Reb=% of missed shots that a player rebounds

There is certain things each player does better. Howard has better FG%, but he doesn't have the range that Hibbert has, and since Hibbert can step out and hit 18-footers, it will decrease his shooting percentage some as it is a lower percentage shot. Howard is by far the better rebounder, but as far as BPG and PF, these two are on relatively even footing, and Hibbert offers more than Howard on the offensive end as far as his Ast and TO ratios.

Yes Howard is the better player NOW, but he has also been in the league 4 years longer and has had more time to hone his skills. Hibbert isn't that far behind Howard (as far as production/experience), and shows to be a student of the game that doesn't have an ego that can rip a team and organization apart.

[pharmag]

pharmag:

What if we made a blockbuster with Indy and got Granger out of the deal? How would it look to have:

Lowry/Trade
Lee/Bud (or draft)
Granger/ Morris (or Parsons)
Scola/Motie
Hibbert/Camby/ (Leonard or Zeller)

I don't know what we'd have to give up, but Morey's got tons of assets, and I like that roster. I don't know why, but I'm not huge on Gordon, or not at all for Mayo. I think it's their size. 6'5" is about as small as I'd like to be at the 2 except in case of playing tandem PGs. I also don't think Parsons is ready to start at such an important position, I think he should be coming off the bench for a couple years while he develops his shot more and gets some consistent offensive moves. I like Lee and Granger on the court together because you don't give up much on either end of the court because one possesses skills the other lacks, same with pairing Parsons and Bud off the bench. We'd have a D and O wing on the floor at all times.

Not likely. If we did manage to steal Hibbert, they are not going to turn around and trade us Granger lol. I chose Gordon and Mayo because they are Free Agents (albeit restricted as well), but they are some of the best at their position at creating offense and if paired with Parsons, would be a pretty good pairing. As I said in my original post, Parsons really can't be paired with Lee unless one of them vastly expands their offensive skills sets. A lot of these projections depend on future development, but if Morey thought Morris could develop into that scoring threat and could start, then I would like to see the following line-up obtained.

PG Lowry/Trade
SG Lee/Draft
SF Morris/Parsons
PF Motie/Scola
C Hibbert/Camby/(Meyers/Zeller/Henson)

You could stretch buy-out Dalembert (or trade him), trade Martin, Bud, PPat, and potentially sign and trade Dragic. Again, the teams I am building are all predicated on development, but I see true potential in all these players, and in my opinion the 3 most important positions are as follows: 1) C, 2) PG, 3)Wing. I thinking obtaining Hibbert gives you a potential All-Star center, I think we already have a border-line all-star PG, leaving us to obtain or develop a wing.

[blakecouey]

I think the reason I like him so much is because while both Howard and Hibbert are equally difficult to obtain, Hibbert has the work ethic and the attitude that I prefer over Howard. Also, while the two guys are the same age, Hibbert has been in the league half as long. I did some comparisons of Hollinger's Stats (I find them to be a little more definitive of contribution) between the two (HIbbert's 4th year vs. Howard's 4th year). This is what I found:

FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb BPG PF/G PER

Howard ('07-'08) .599 .590 22.0 15.0 1.4 61.9 6.3 15.1 21.4 21.7 2.1 3.3 22.61
Hibbert ('11-'12) .497 .711 17.2 11.8 2.2 53.9 10.7 12.7 19.4 16.6 2.0 3.0 19.35

*Ast=% of player possessions that end in assist
*TO=% of player possessions that end in turnover
*Reb=% of missed shots that a player rebounds

Good information there. Makes me like Hibbert even more, the FG percent is skewed as you said to the shots being taken. If Hibbert shot only from the paint he'd likely be ahead in that statistic, and the AST/TO stats show a lot of promise.

Not likely. If we did manage to steal Hibbert, they are not going to turn around and trade us Granger lol. I chose Gordon and Mayo because they are Free Agents (albeit restricted as well), but they are some of the best at their position at creating offense and if paired with Parsons, would be a pretty good pairing. As I said in my original post, Parsons really can't be paired with Lee unless one of them vastly expands their offensive skills sets.

Right again. No way Indiana gets rid of both Hibbert and Granger, they're a second round team this year and that would be blowing it up for Martin and maybe Dragic? I don't think Larry is that dumb. I dont like the getting rid of Bud part, he has big gaps in his game and isn't always consistent but his contract keeps him as a great option.

[pharmag]

Right again. No way Indiana gets rid of both Hibbert and Granger, they're a second round team this year and that would be blowing it up for Martin and maybe Dragic? I don't think Larry is that dumb. I dont like the getting rid of Bud part, he has big gaps in his game and isn't always consistent but his contract keeps him as a great option.

The reason I say trade Bud is because there is a log-jam at the SF position with him, Parsons, and Morris. With the production he is capable of and his contract, I'd be willing to bet he would be appealing to several teams as a bench scoring option and that opens some playtime for Morris, to see if he can become a go-to scorer like he was in college.

[Rahat Huq]

^There's also the issue that Bud's value is at its highest. If the team allows things to play out the way they do, he'll be in a Dragic situation next summer where he'll likely cost $3-$4mill/year.

[pharmag]

^There's also the issue that Bud's value is at its highest. If the team allows things to play out the way they do, he'll be in a Dragic situation next summer where he'll likely cost $3-$4mill/year.

Another valid point as to why we should trade him.

[pharmag]

I just had an interesting idea. Don't get me wrong, this is a massive trade that is highly unlikely to happen, but I think it would actually help all teams. Lets execute a 3-way trade with Indiana and Utah. Currently, Utah's salaries are at $50 million, Indiana's are at $35 million, and the Rocket's are at $30 million, not including cap holds and TOs. Here is how it works:

Indiana resigns Hibbert for say a 5-year, $70 million contract with lots of incentives (if I understand it correctly then that means his yearly salaries would be $12 million, 12.9 , 13. , 14.7, 15.6).

Houston resigns Dragic for say a 5-year, $40 million contract ($7 million, 7.5, 8, 8.5, 9) and picks up Dalembert's, Patterson's and Bud's option.

Utah trades Al Jefferson ($15 million, final year) to Indiana. The Rockets trade Bud ($950,00, final year) and Dalembert ($6.7 million, final year) to Utah, Martin ($13 million, final year), Dragic (7 million, 1st year), Patterson ($2 million, TO) and one of their first rounders to Indiana. The Pacers trade Hibbert ($12 million, 1st year) and Hansborough ($3 million, final year) to the Rockets and David West ($10million, final year) to Utah.

If I did my math right, the Pacers salaries will then be at $46 million after resigning HIbbert, and $58 million after the trade. However, they haven't lost anything at the center position (and actually improved if you use PER), have improved at the SG position, and have gained a young PG for the future to pair with Collison. They may have regressed a little at PF (if Patterson maintains form from this year) or they may have remained par if he returns to his rookie year status. They may have to go over cap to fill out depth chart, but after the next season they will have $28 million coming off the books in Jefferson and Martin with Collison on RFA and Paul George and Patterson on TO.

The Utah salary will be at $52.7 million. They won't have gained in long-term salaries (instead of having $15 million come off books next year, it would be 17.6), however, they would have made way for Kanter while retaining decent production with Dalembert and West. They also add a cheap 3 point shooter as they were one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the league and have gained and they will still have some cap space to chase some upgrades on the wing in FA (they could also use an amnesty on West, Milsap, or Harris to give them even more room to chase after a FA).

The Rockets salaries would $37 million after signing Dragic and 22 million after the trade. Thats a ton of cap space to resign Lee, chase after some upgrades on the wings as well as to fill out our depth chart.

Depth Charts would look like as follows:

Indiana
PG Dragic/Collison
SG Martin/P. George
SF Granger/Dahntay Jones
PF Patterson/Pendegraph (or FA/draftee w/ our pick)
C Jefferson/FA/Draft pick

Utah
PG Harris/Tinsley(or FA)
SG Hayword/Burks (or FA)
SF Budinger/Howard (or FA)
PF Milsap/West/Favors
C Kanter/Dalembert

Houston
PG Lowry/FA
SG Lee/FA or draft
SF Parsons/Morris
PF Motie/Scola
C Hibbert/FA (maybe Camby) or draft

Again, I know this isn't likely to happen and that this is an incredibly long post, but a guy can dream right.

[rockets best fan]

pharmag:
not to cut your dream down, but no way utah or indiana go for that deal. utah wants to dump jefferson but have a young power forward in favors so they don;t need west and don't want to take on extra salary just to ride the bench in dally and west. indiana will not let hibbert go for jefferson while also loosing west. the reason I don't think we should pursue hibbert is I think his talent level can be had in this draft. there are 3-4 players who should be able to land where he is with development,and we only need to risk a draft pick to get them. if we are going to burn some of our assets I would expect a bigger splash than that