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Houston Rockets 110, Indiana Pacers 100: Attack Mode Engaged
#21
Posted 27 March 2015 - 12:12 AM
#22
Posted 27 March 2015 - 04:54 PM
FYI, Shaun Livingston is 6' 6" (6' 7" in shoes). LINK
At this point, I am not the least bit worried about attacking the Warriors. We have more pressing concerns like shutting down Monta, Dirk, Chandler, and the rest of the Mavs....or the two-time defending WC champs.....or the league's best PG, PF, rebounder, and 6th man in LA.....I am reminded of Jim Mora's infamous "playoffs!" rant.
As things are, we will have to go through two of those three teams plus Memphis/Portland. Right now, I'd guess San Antonio and Memphis. The Warriors will most likely face OKC and Portland. Neither of those roads is easy.
Since we are talking about it, I do agree Houston will do their best to work the post and get some fouls on Bogut, but this series will be about small ball and we will see a lot of Smith/Jones front courts versus Howard/Motie. Bogut plays limited minutes (23.8/game) and played 27.3/game in last year's playoffs.
What concerns me is the bench units. They bring Livingston, Iguodala, Lee, Ezeli, Barnes, and Speights in different combos that force mismatches. We counter with Brewer, Jet, Smith, Motie (presuming Jones is starting), and Prigioni. For the Rockets to win this series these guys have to provide a +8 to +10 every night. Curry, Thompson, Green, and Bogut are too much to ask Harden to carry us past all by himself.
Personally, I think we should try to lock down everyone else and force Curry to do it all. Teams try, try, and try again to force it out of his hands--and we've seen how well it works. Curry will tire eventually and if we can keep Klay and Draymond from raining threes on us we stand a much better chance. I know, easier said than done. They take the 5th most three pointers per game and make 39.4% of them (1st in the league). If we can take that away then I think we can beat them.
Looking at their game logs, Klay Thompson doesn't affect W's and L's when his efficiency dips. They are 8-2 when he shoots 33% or lower.
On the other hand, Draymond Green does affect the W/L column. They are 14-8 when Green shoots 33% or lower. That is 8 of their 13 total losses. This must be the key!!!
Just for good measure the Warriors are 7-1 when Curry shoots 33% or lower.
I just had a frightening thought about Green going to San Antonio after this season. He and Leonard would be a ridiculous pair of two-way wings. I guess it's not anymore of a concern than him staying in GS....
One last note: The Warriors have lost 9 games when Bogut plays less than his average of 23.8 mpg. Granted, 6 of those he did not play at all.
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