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@  thejohnnygold : (23 September 2016 - 03:02 PM) @Slick Shoes - I don't think so....I may have had him bundled in a trade scenario or two back when Phoenix had ALL the PG's.
@  slick shoes : (22 September 2016 - 08:53 PM) I'm liking the trade with Beasley for Tyler Ennis. JG, weren't you advocating drafting him a year or two ago?
@  thejohnnygold : (17 September 2016 - 03:38 PM) I think they will eventually settle on a good deal, but it will likely have early team options to protect against his chronic injury problems.
@  slick shoes : (16 September 2016 - 02:47 PM) If no one else is making any offers, why would we exceed the minimum? Is it that he/his agent think his value is higher than the market dictates?
@  thejohnnygold : (16 September 2016 - 01:08 PM) Yup. The last sentence of that article says it all. "All deals get done in the 11th hour".
@  DenverRocket : (15 September 2016 - 06:16 PM) The latest on D-Mo http://www.espn.com/...rockets-lagging
@  slick shoes : (29 August 2016 - 11:42 AM) At some point they've got to start trading SOME of these picks for veteran players...
@  thejohnnygold : (26 August 2016 - 10:03 PM) Call me crazy, but I'd rather have Kendall Marshall than 2 2nd rounders.
@  slick shoes : (26 August 2016 - 08:30 PM) the 76's trade for another center? im assuming they were really after the two 2nd rounders...
@  thejohnnygold : (07 August 2016 - 07:16 PM) Nope, but there is some raw talent to work with there. He is years away...
@  majik19 : (06 August 2016 - 11:53 PM) well it doesn't look like Zhou Qi is NBA-ready
@  thejohnnygold : (25 July 2016 - 04:26 PM) I think I am going to like Bobby Brown...that is within the confines of our current strategy which is score, score, SCORE!
@  slick shoes : (22 July 2016 - 08:02 PM) The "super team" Knicks? lol
@  thejohnnygold : (22 July 2016 - 06:05 PM) On Josh Smith...my guess is the Knicks eventually sign him.
@  slick shoes : (21 July 2016 - 04:29 PM) The Jet has been released. Josh Smith will likely play for another team next season. Maybe he teams up with Dwight in ATL?
@  slick shoes : (21 July 2016 - 12:17 PM) Harden is now sending hitmen after Rockets legends' sons for badmouthing him on social media *facepalm*
@  slick shoes : (18 July 2016 - 02:22 PM) If you haven't seen the 30 for 30 "The Guru of Go", I recommend it before the upcoming season.
@  Shy Silver : (14 July 2016 - 07:20 PM) Yea I know, but there were reports both sides were willing to have a reunion before Chicago signed him. So at the time, Canaan was an option, and a better one than Pablo at that. We should've capitalized on that one, especially with how well he fits the system for obvious reasons + age on his side.
@  thejohnnygold : (14 July 2016 - 03:43 PM) Canaan signed with Chicago already
@  Shy Silver : (14 July 2016 - 03:24 PM) Don't love the Prigioni move. Thought for sure we had better options like bringing Canaan back or getting someone like Shane Larkin

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On Dwight, Josh Smith, and Parsons


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#1 Red94

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    Posted 19 March 2015 - 01:46 AM

    New post: On Dwight, Josh Smith, and Parsons
    By: Rahat Huq

    • I have next to no doubts that Dwight will come back spry and active after this extended leave.  The concern isn't so much this year but rather the future.  Upon his return, if he looks as good as is to be expected, there will be those--the majority--who will proclaim that worries over his long-term health were unwarranted.  Given the nature of the condition, that would and will be a very foolish reaction.
    • How will Kevin McHale handle the rotation?  Having four above average to excellent big men will be an embarrassment of riches and will come as a boon in the regular season when rest rules the day in the new order of NBA thinking.  But in the playoffs?  Does anyone really think the Rockets will include all four of these men in their rotation?  Would that serve any benefit?  For instance, in the regular season, it helps to have two great bench bigs, because they're usually playing against two other bench bigs or, one bench big and a starter who may not be at full rest.  In the postseason, when the opponent will have one starting big on the floor at all times, with players better rested, won't Kevin McHale prefer to just keep the guys he likes most in the game longer?
    • I had the late realization last week that we are the fan-base that embraced Josh Smith.  That definitely typifies the ethos of the "that moment when" meme, especially in light of the national media/blogosphere's perception of this team and its fans.
    • On Smith, per the league's rules, the Rockets will be limited in what they can offer the free-agent-to-be this summer.  While still collecting checks from the Pistons, will it matter?  This might be the first situation in Smith's life where he's been fully embraced and accepted for all of his warts.  Really, he still does a few boneheaded things every game, but how often do you ever hear anyone complain?  That has to stand for something, right?
    • Of course, it would come as little to no surprise if Daryl Morey opted to allow both Josh Smith and Corey Brewer to walk this summer.  Every year, there have been fan favorites whom that contingency deemed indispensable who turned out to be very...well, dispensable.  Daryl Morey believes he can cobble together a bench at a moment's notice, and with his track record, who's to doubt him?
    • This leads to another point: not only does it not matter what the fans think, but collective wisdom has proven to be a very fickle thing.  Recall the number of fans this summer, on talk radio, and on message boards, screaming breathlessly that they would not spend another dollar in support of this team because Morey had opted to not resign Chandler Parsons.  Wondering why its so quiet now?  Because nobody cares.  The Rockets are winning and Trevor Ariza has played well.  Winning cures all ills.

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    #2 Alituro

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      Posted 19 March 2015 - 12:59 PM

      In my opinion, the chance that our roster gets much more shaken up this offseason primarily rides on the state of Dwight's health. And secondarily, our success in the playoffs if Dwight is healthy and active. When all is well, though, we have arguably the best rotations in the league from positions 2-5, as evidenced by our ability to stay near the top of the tough West while our #2 star was missing extended time. On the flip side, in the future if Dwight is healthy and Mr. Harden needs an extended hiatus, I still think that with our wing depth down to KJ we could still win 65-70% of the games in that period. We wouldn't be nearly as affected as OKC, LAC, GSW or any other contenders if they were to lose a star.

       

      The third and no less important factor in the volatility of our roster is going to come down to (Morey's) assessment of how well Beverley fares in the playoffs. Which brings up another point, about the previous (Red94) assessment of Beverley. To say that he has fallen off on the defensive end based on stats that show opponents shoot better percentages against him rather than not against him tells so little of the whole story. What needs to be coupled with that data is the discrepancy between shot attempts taken against him vs. not against him. Meaning that OK, so a guy shoots 5% better against him, but if he's taking 50% fewer attempts than he normally would, then your post would have been about how absolutely badass Beverley has been. The percentage discrepancy could maybe only be indicative of opponents being more willing to take tougher shots against others than Beverley... who knows? But we certainly can't derive anything from the post, as is.  I like to read and digest data but have no time to compile it, sorry.. 

       

      Even so, we still have assets we can use to bolster the PG spot without touching anything in our wing and post rotations. Brewer and Smith are starters on 75% of the teams in the league, and unless star #3 falls in our lap, any move to move them would only be a lateral one wouldn't it?


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      #3 Jatman20

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        Posted 19 March 2015 - 02:07 PM

        Looking at Beverley, it's obvious the whole season that talks about Houston going after Dragic in a possible trade this season or in the summer as a free agent following the season must have bothered him. His numbers have been equal to or less than last most of the year......and those of us watching him last year recognize he lacks the same hungry fire in his belly that he has played with the last two years. Is it because people say he can't stay healthy (he throws his body around) and he is staying healthy for a new contract this summer? And plans on turning it on in the spotlight of the playoffs to cash in? Or depressed due to the Rockets wanting another PG in their future? Pouting? Regardless, will he be ready to turn it on in the playoffs to ......cash in? Because ladies and gentlemen......that will be the only way he will get a bigger payday, now.

        The only time I have seen the Beverley of last season this year was vs LeBron and the Cavs....after LeBron tried to get a pin-count-of-3. Beverley wanted nothing to do with that.

        Edited by Jatman20, 19 March 2015 - 02:08 PM.

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        #4 majik19

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          Posted 19 March 2015 - 02:17 PM

          One other key in resigning Josh Smith - he and Dwight go way back, and Dwight's not going anywhere. 

           

          The playoff rotation is a curious thing to wonder - 96 minutes for 4 players. But right now, I'm struggling to even determine who starts next to Dwight. Jones or Motiejunas? The way D-mo has played lately (Orlando aside), it seems like Jones would start, and then I would wonder if he falls out of the rotation entirely. Or it could be entirely matchup based. Or maybe it's a ride-the-hot-hand thing for Jones/D-mo/Smith. 

           

          I think the rotation will shake out like this:

          1) Howard and Jones start

          2) Jones goes out, D-mo comes in. (I think a Howard-Smith frontcourt would lead to serious spacing issues.)

          3) Howard goes out, Smith comes in (for a few minutes, but I think Jones and Smith fit together better)

          4) D-mo goes out, Jones comes in. 

          5) Smith goes out, Howard comes in. 

           

          Probably about 35 min for Dwight, 35 min for Jones, 20 minutes for Smith... and that leaves only 6 for D-mo. Maybe in an effort to keep Dwight fresh we keep his minutes down to 30 minutes a game, or at least limit his minutes before crunch time. 

           

          But I could easily see scenarios where this whole thing switches around. If we play Portland, do we really throw Jones out there again as Aldridge's primary defender?

          What if Harden is struggling offensively? D-mo is probably still our 2nd best offensive option in the half court, despite his shooting woes as of late.

           

          What if Jones reverts to a low-level of play against upper-echelon teams? 

           

          I'll say one thing - it's good to have options. 


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          #5 Jatman20

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            Posted 19 March 2015 - 05:28 PM

            I'm more of a fan of 8-9 nine man rotations during the playoffs. Pops had a 12 deep rotation going in the playoffs a few years back; they breazed thru the first two rounds. I remember telling friends of mine before the Thunder series it may hurt the Spurs unless he shortens up that rotation. Pops didn't adapt until it was too late....I believe it was game 4 of that series. The only time I out coached the great pops....my big fish that got away tale. At least my friends know I called it. Haha

            Will it hurt us? I would like to play everyone......but situations should determine that. Fouls , injury, defensive purposes.

            Edited by Jatman20, 19 March 2015 - 05:30 PM.

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            #6 NorEastern

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              Posted 19 March 2015 - 06:28 PM

              There are a few things to consider about the 4-5 playoff rotation.

              Match ups. Like someone pointed out Jones probably is not the best defender against power forwards like LMA or Zach.

              Howard coming back will allow McHale to keep a true center on the floor at all times. Let us face it no one wants to see Smith or Jones attempt to box Gasol out. Also, I would imagine that Howard will still be on minute restrictions come playoffs.

              Pace. I would be very surprised if McHale does not push the pace up another couple of notches once Howard comes back. These really big fours and fives consume a lot of energy getting their bodies up and down the court at a run. Only Houston will have the personnel necessary to go four deep. Shortening Gasol's minutes by as little as three or four a game could pay big dividends.


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              #7 Under estimated champion

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                Posted 19 March 2015 - 07:22 PM

                I loved the energy the rockets bench provided when Dorsey/Dmo started and Jones/Smith can me off the bench. That unit outperformed every teams 2nd unit by a wide margin with the eye test.
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                #8 cointurtlemoose

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                  Posted 19 March 2015 - 08:07 PM

                  ^Agreed, the Jones/Smith pairing was a lot better than I thought it would be initially! Especially protecting the rim, I was impressed. Welcome!

                   

                  I agree in thinking DMo will get the short end of the stick in minutes this postseason. But as others have said, our '4 capable bigs' scenario isn't your average crowded frontcourt situation. All four are pretty different, and thus should still make for an advantage even when rotations usually shrink in April/May. Like someone said, it's good to have options, and we have actual options, not merely 4 guys who do mostly the same thing.

                   

                  And I feel like the situation for Howard is already set, and Morey knows that. He's an athletic big man with 10.5 seasons under his belt, and quasi-chronic knee issues have started. He can still do Howard things. But Howard things for 82 games? Unfortunately not, but this is just a thing that happens in the NBA. No need to get scared about it. (Sorry, but I just remember my first couple posts here this past offseason, talking about Howard's 10 seasons getting into "it could happen" territory for chronic big man injuries, and people freaked out).

                   

                  So anyways, I have a hard time not seeing our 4-man frontcourt as pretty important going forward. Do I think Howard can matter, and matter big, in the playoffs for the next couple years? Sure. But in order to matter, we're going to have to have a rotation at least similar to what we've had this year.


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                  #9 NorEastern

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                    Posted 19 March 2015 - 10:24 PM

                    ^Agreed, the Jones/Smith pairing was a lot better than I thought it would be initially! Especially protecting the rim, I was impressed. Welcome!

                     

                    I agree in thinking DMo will get the short end of the stick in minutes this postseason. But as others have said, our '4 capable bigs' scenario isn't your average crowded frontcourt situation. All four are pretty different, and thus should still make for an advantage even when rotations usually shrink in April/May. Like someone said, it's good to have options, and we have actual options, not merely 4 guys who do mostly the same thing.

                     

                    And I feel like the situation for Howard is already set, and Morey knows that. He's an athletic big man with 10.5 seasons under his belt, and quasi-chronic knee issues have started. He can still do Howard things. But Howard things for 82 games? Unfortunately not, but this is just a thing that happens in the NBA. No need to get scared about it. (Sorry, but I just remember my first couple posts here this past offseason, talking about Howard's 10 seasons getting into "it could happen" territory for chronic big man injuries, and people freaked out).

                     

                    So anyways, I have a hard time not seeing our 4-man frontcourt as pretty important going forward. Do I think Howard can matter, and matter big, in the playoffs for the next couple years? Sure. But in order to matter, we're going to have to have a rotation at least similar to what we've had this year.

                    D-Mo will almost certainly NOT get the short end of the stick. What are you thinking? D-Mo is currently the Rockets center. He is pulling huge minutes at the five. Did he not play 43 minutes against the Clips (?). Every minute Howard is not on the floor we will see D-Mo out there. Plus, D-Mo is by far and away Houston's best stretch four. Over the last two months he is hitting 40%+ from beyond the arc. Is either Jones or Smith even hitting 30%?

                     

                    Howard, from all reports, will be on a seriously restricted minutes cap for a while. Neither Jones or Smith are capable of manning the five spot against starting quality centers in the NBA.


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                    #10 Sir Thursday

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                    Posted 19 March 2015 - 10:47 PM

                    I don't see a problem with a 4-man bigs rotation come playoff time. You've got 96 minutes to split between the 4, so give Howard as much as he can and split the rest between the other three. Have something like 36/20/20/20 as a baseline and then tweak it depending on matchups and who's playing well that night.

                     

                    ST


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                    #11 Jatman20

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                      Posted 19 March 2015 - 11:45 PM

                      I have our playoff roster as: 1)D12 2)TJ 3)Ariza 4)Harden 5)Bev Reserves: 6)JSmoove 7)D-Mo 8)Jet 9) Brewer

                      Bigs are D12/D-Mo/JSmoove/TJ......??Dorsey?? in for hard fouls only.
                      This compares well with most teams.

                      Thunder: Adams/Kanter/Collison/Ibaka (maybe second round if not first) Durant..we may put Ariza on Durant while at 4. ??McGary??
                      Spurs: Duncan/Splitter/Diaw/Baynes.......??Bonner??
                      Dallas: Tyson Chandler/Dirk/Amar'e/Villanueva
                      Clippers: Blake/DeAndre/Hawes/G. Davis.....?? Turkoglu ??
                      Warriors: Bogut/Draymond/Lee/Speights
                      Blazers: LMA/"Caveman"/Kaman........??Meyers??
                      Memphis: ZBo/Gasol/Koufos/Jeff Green(listed as small forward like Durant; but can play the 4.........??Jon Leurer??

                      Guys in ?? May or may not get playing time. Every team in the West seem to have the same problem Houston has....about 4-deep at the 4-5.
                      Don't ask me about Asik/Davis.......I hated that trade to division rival. I actually start a player depending on who we play.
                      Spurs:Duncan/Splitter vs D12/D-Mo
                      Memphis: ZBo/Gasol vs D12/D-Mo (D-Mo on Gasol)
                      Thunder?starters?: Kanter/Ibaka vs D12/ TJ...... Kanter/Adams vs D12/ D-Mo
                      Blazers: LMA/Caveman vs D12/ D-Mo (D-Mo on Lopez).......and no D-Mo could not have done the job last year.
                      Clippers: Blake/ DeAndre vs D12/ TJ (D12 on Jordan)
                      Dallas: Tyson/Dirk vs D12/ TJ (Ariza or Harden may be defending Dirk)
                      Warriors: Bogut/Draymond vs D12/ TJ ( D-Mo may not get much playing time in this series....if I'm the coach I go small-ball from the jump ball) I may play KJ for defensive purposes in only this series.....if Klay and Curry each get 30, I think we lose. I would blanket Klay and try to hold him under 15 and try to keep Curry to under 30 (under 25 would be better)and we can then beat this team (Klay is the key). May take an Ariza & KJ & Brewer switching (with little to no Beverley or Jet sightings in this series). ****i would take out Kover the same way I play Klay Thompson, in taking out the Hawks.

                      Edited by Jatman20, 19 March 2015 - 11:52 PM.

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                      #12 Losthief

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                      Posted 20 March 2015 - 03:08 AM

                      The thing to keep in mind about DMOs percentages is he is currently posting up and guarding centers. So...they are big, usually bulkier than him. Put him on 4s (outside of a few exceptions) and you get a different story. A 7ft center isn't abnormal, a 7ft PF is. That said....Jones looked real good with Howard to start the season.

                       

                      I think DMO gets every minute at center (most games) that dwight is not out there. So say 36 minutes of Dwight, 12 of DMO. Then you have 48 minutes left between Jones/DMO/Smith. I don't think we see as much Jones/Smith line-ups when we get Dwight back unless we are going small.


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                      LoSTHieF

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                      #13 cointurtlemoose

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                        Posted 20 March 2015 - 05:05 AM

                        D-Mo will almost certainly NOT get the short end of the stick. What are you thinking? D-Mo is currently the Rockets center. He is pulling huge minutes at the five. Did he not play 43 minutes against the Clips (?). Every minute Howard is not on the floor we will see D-Mo out there. Plus, D-Mo is by far and away Houston's best stretch four. Over the last two months he is hitting 40%+ from beyond the arc. Is either Jones or Smith even hitting 30%?

                         

                        Howard, from all reports, will be on a seriously restricted minutes cap for a while. Neither Jones or Smith are capable of manning the five spot against starting quality centers in the NBA.

                         

                        I'm talking strictly about playoffs. Come postseason, Howard is gonna be getting 36-38 min, and I don't see DMo getting many minutes at the 4. That's all I meant.


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                        #14 Jatman20

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                          Posted 21 March 2015 - 03:01 AM

                          Injury to TJ hurts the team.
                          Per *NBA.com/STATS
                          *Player Tracking
                          *Defense

                          Often heard early in the season how Howard/D-Mo were two of the top rim protector duos. Howard makes all of these guys look good.
                          8th) D12......... 31 games....................... 40 blks................... Opp FGP at rim 45.3%
                          18th) TJ..........25 games....................... 41 blks................... Opp FGP at rim 46.3%
                          30th) Smoove..41 games w/Rockets..... 51 blks................... Opp FGP at rim 47.9%
                          32) D-Mo ........67 games....................... 30 blks ...................Opp FGP at rim 49.1%

                          Edited by Jatman20, 21 March 2015 - 03:03 AM.

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