46 replies to this topic

[Rahat Huq]

Trade Lowry, Martin, Morris, and both of our picks to Orlando for Dwight.
Waive Dalembert and amnesty Scola.
Use that money saved to sign Deron Williams.
Let Goran walk but re-up Courtney Lee.

End with a roster of:

Patterson
Parsons
Howard/Motie
Lee
Williams

I don't have to sell you all on the merits of this lineup. Obviously, if this happened we'd all be dancing in the streets.

But what are the chances of this happening?

Orlando has to be willing to trade Dwight, we have to win that bidding war, and then Deron has to choose Houston over Dallas.

One of you earlier said that Portland could just offer Aldridge for Dwight, trumping anything we could offer. I shot that down saying Portland wouldn't be willing to trade Aldridge for a rental. But I didn't consider the possibility of them getting Deron too. I'm not completely clear on their finances, but if they have the money for Goran, couldn't they maneuver somehow via the amnesty to clear up the money for Deron? Not sure if they have any big salaries they can dump.

If we already had Dwight in tow, would Deron choose Houston or Dirk in his hometown of Dallas? I think he's leaving NJ for sure. No way he endures another season of losing during the prime of his career.

What do you all think? Can this dream scenario go down?

[Lyfestyle]

I love the idea, I just think for Orlando to part with Dwight, they'll want to shed some of their other horrendous contracts as well, making a Williams signing more difficult.

That said, Morey should move heaven and earth if there's even an outside shot to get either of those guys.

[areteejay789]

I think Deron would choose houston (with howard) over Dallas, becuase he is closer in age to Howard. Dirk will surely retire/fall from his position amongst the elite, and Deron has shown he cannot lead a team without decent teammates... I think if we definately have Howard, williams would chose us as his destination of choice, but would orlando accept that offer?

Is dally's contract guaranteed if traded? if not, then we could send him to orlando, along with Rahut's suggested package and take back turkoglu (?), so that orlando can waive Sam, to save salary. and we could include Bud as well, or even P-Pat if hes wanted (although i doubt he has much value atm) and then pick up a free agent PF after waiving scola (kris humphries?) Or add Gogi to that package in a sign and trade to maybe a third team (portland?) to pick up another first we could send to orlando. and then add Dallas's protected pick?

So eventually it would be Lowry, Dally, Martin, Morris, Bud/P-Pat? our 1st, NYK's first, Dallas's protected 1st, and anything we can get in a sign and trade for dragic, for Howard and Turkoglu?

Then we resign lee so we have:
Williams
Lee
Parsons
ppat/free agent pf
Howard

bench:
camby
bud
boykins (resign)
turkoglu
motie
2nd round pick morey pulls from nowhere.

[Chichos]

Not that I think Dwight would ever come to Houston. But Hollinger wrote a great piece about the the kinds of power forwards the would best compliment Howard. Hollinger highlighted jump shooting, strong offensive but not defensive rebounding, and passing as the skills best suited to compliment Howard. If we lose Patterson and Scola, two people that match that skill set perfectly, who would we plug in to best compliment our new big man?

[Rahat Huq]

Not that I think Dwight would ever come to Houston. But Hollinger wrote a great piece about the the kinds of power forwards the would best compliment Howard. Hollinger highlighted jump shooting, strong offensive but not defensive rebounding, and passing as the skills best suited to compliment Howard. If we lose Patterson and Scola, two people that match that skill set perfectly, who would we plug in to best compliment our new big man?

Scola would be a perfect fit next to Dwight. But getting Deron would require that we amnesty him, under my proposed trade. Patterson atleast can hit the midrange jumper though (or could last season).

[Rahat Huq]

I love the idea, I just think for Orlando to part with Dwight, they'll want to shed some of their other horrendous contracts as well, making a Williams signing more difficult.

That said, Morey should move heaven and earth if there's even an outside shot to get either of those guys.

Yeah, that's true. You'd have to get some very creative maneuvering, but the closest to making it work would be to take back Richardson or Big Baby and amnesty Scola, and send out more players in the trade, but even then, probably won't have the money for a D-Will max contract. I'd have to crunch the numbers.

[Rahat Huq]

I think Deron would choose houston (with howard) over Dallas, becuase he is closer in age to Howard. Dirk will surely retire/fall from his position amongst the elite, and Deron has shown he cannot lead a team without decent teammates... I think if we definately have Howard, williams would chose us as his destination of choice, but would orlando accept that offer?

Is dally's contract guaranteed if traded? if not, then we could send him to orlando, along with Rahut's suggested package and take back turkoglu (?), so that orlando can waive Sam, to save salary. and we could include Bud as well, or even P-Pat if hes wanted (although i doubt he has much value atm) and then pick up a free agent PF after waiving scola (kris humphries?) Or add Gogi to that package in a sign and trade to maybe a third team (portland?) to pick up another first we could send to orlando. and then add Dallas's protected pick?

So eventually it would be Lowry, Dally, Martin, Morris, Bud/P-Pat? our 1st, NYK's first, Dallas's protected 1st, and anything we can get in a sign and trade for dragic, for Howard and Turkoglu?

Then we resign lee so we have:
Williams
Lee
Parsons
ppat/free agent pf
Howard

bench:
camby
bud
boykins (resign)
turkoglu
motie
2nd round pick morey pulls from nowhere.

Can't believe I never thought of this. As long as the deal is made before July 7, you could send Dalembert, and then have Orlando waive him and get that savings. Then, maneuvering with Martin and Scola and the amnesty, that should get you to having enough for Williams.

[areteejay789]

Now we just have to hope orlando would accept that offer. How many of the previous offers are on the table for him still? Bynum has proved to still be immature, so is he still in play for orlando? will howard still go to newjersey/brooklyn now that williams is almost certainly leaving? GSW and MIL surely arent in the running any more after already trading their two centrepieces to each other? Our offer may be the best on the table now, unless one of the bottom 5 teams were to offer their picks. Would WAS offer nene and their first and vesely? i think that trumps anything we have to offer, but is a howard rental enough for them? i cant think of any other teams that would be willing/ have better resources than us, to make such a deal.

[Lyfestyle]

What if Orlando wanted Lowry, Parsons, Motie and the 2 1st rounders for Howard (we could do that deal as we're under the salary cap).

Do you do it?

Also, could we not still end up with Dallas's 1st rounder if they advance in the playoffs? Aren't draft picks determined by record and playoff advancement?

[Rahat Huq]

I would have to think that Bynum is now off the table after the way he's played this year.

I don't think a 30 year old Nene does anything for Orlando.

NJ is a question mark - It doesn't matter if D-Will looks to be leaving because he wouldn't if they got Dwight. They're hope is if they land in the top 3, they can package that with a re-signed Brooke Lopez. Otherwise, they lose the pick and Lopez is also a free agent.

[Rahat Huq]

BTW - for what it's worth, Stephen A. Smith is saying that Dwight Howard will demand a trade at the end of the season. Probably not the best source out there, so take it for what it's worth.

[areteejay789]

Would portland then maybe offer the house plus NJs pick (not top 3) to pair howard with aldridge? do they have enough to get howard without giving up aldridge?

Other than keeping howard, i dont see any thing else that orlando could do with howard other than trading him to us. Is that just me being optimistic or do other people feel that way?

I think howard will have to leave after the mess he has made this season. no other player could use a fresh start like him.

[Forrest Walker]

I think there's around a 40% chance he's traded in the offseason, and I think there's around a 40% chance it would be to Houston. Put those together and you get like a 16% chance, but that's a real possiblity.

In any case, give them anything and everything. The biggest problem is outbidding other teams, who will do the same. Having the best negotiator in the world (which I'm not saying they do, just a hypothetical) doesn't help if someone else is dumber. In any event, it's time for a huge, bold move. Renting Dwight is fine. Having a situation good enough for him to want to re-sign is better.

[Rahat Huq]

Would portland then maybe offer the house plus NJs pick (not top 3) to pair howard with aldridge? do they have enough to get howard without giving up aldridge?

Other than keeping howard, i dont see any thing else that orlando could do with howard other than trading him to us. Is that just me being optimistic or do other people feel that way?

I think howard will have to leave after the mess he has made this season. no other player could use a fresh start like him.

If not trading Aldridge, Portland could do Batum and both lottery picks. Depends on how high those lottery picks are but I think that would trump anything we could offer. Batum is thought to have more potential around the league than does Lowry.

I see Portland as the biggest dark horse threat that wasn't mentioned in offseason reports. They could trade for Howard and convince him to stay by pairing him with Aldridge, or, they could also possibly maneuver to trade for Howard and sign Williams. They also have better assets than we do and better picks, having tanked their season.

[Rahat Huq]

I think there's around a 40% chance he's traded in the offseason, and I think there's around a 40% chance it would be to Houston. Put those together and you get like a 16% chance, but that's a real possiblity. In any case, give them anything and everything. The biggest problem is outbidding other teams, who will do the same. Having the best negotiator in the world (which I'm not saying they do, just a hypothetical) doesn't help if someone else is dumber. In any event, it's time for a huge, bold move. Renting Dwight is fine. Having a situation good enough for him to want to re-sign is better.

No, I agree with you completely. I keep looking for reasons to temper my expectations but the logistics all seem to be there. Like I said on Twitter, I wouldn't bet on it happening, but it's not far-fetched at all.

Up to this point, everything that needed to happen for that to happen, has happened. Brooke Lopez is injured again. Bynum has blown up to the point of probably being untouchable. And the Dwight situation has completely deteriorated. We also now have our lottery pick and a reason to blow things up. Had the team made the playoffs and done well, there might have been a hesitance to take a risk like this.

[areteejay789]

I have started to think of batum like anthony randolph. Loads of potential, has been harped on about for ever, never really done anything.
I havent seen much of him this year, but why does everyone love him so much? i cant see him ever becoming better than an athletic battier..
Then again, it doesnt matter how good he actually is/could be, it only matters how good Orlando thinks he is.

[Rahat Huq]

I've said for the past 2 years that Batum is probably the most overrated player in basketball. Good player, but not superstar potential the way he's discussed.

There was an article I think last year by someone saying Portland has had a part in inflating that value. Everytime a superstar is on the block, Portland floats to the media a rumored deal involving Batum being sent back for that superstar and then the report stating that Portland backed out not wanting to part with Batum.

But like you said, reality doesn't matter. It's only relevant what Orlando thinks of him.

[cdhthegreat]

Was doing a bit of number crunching at work and here's what I would propose. First some base numbers: 60 mil salary cap, right now 40.8 mil in salary obligations if we pick up everyone. What I would offer is Dally (7mil), Lowry (5), Martin (12.4), Morris (1.9) and one of our picks (preferably the later one #17) (total combined cap obligation 27.1 mil) for Howard and J. Rich (total cap hit 25.3) (you could haggle over swapping Rich for Turk or Davis). Dalembert's contract would immediately come off the books, saving Orl 5.2 mil this year with Martin expiring factoring in, Orlando would be able to sign a max free agent and be out of cap hell by next season (this benefit increases if we take on one of their other bad contracts instead of J Rich, we could conceivably match salaries all the way up to Turk without altering our offer).

If the proposed trade is successful you end up with 41.7 in money dedicated to your signed roster and factoring in cap holds (13.3 mil as close as I can figure it), your total roster commitment is 55 million. You could then opt not to pick up the option on Greg Smith and amnesty Scola and have just about enough for a max contract while retaining your Bird Rights on Lee and Dragic.

You could then offer DWill a max deal and offer up a sign and trade on Dragic (a la Tyson Chandler this year) if you so chose. You could look into packaging your 13 and Dragic for Portland's projected #7 (which would be Jeremy Lamb if nbadraft.net is to be believed).

Final dream roster
Dwill; FA (don't think Llull could come over till next year)
Lee; Lamb
Parsons; Bud
Motie; Patterson
Howard; Camby (signed with the money left after Dragic's trade)

Thoughts?

[rockets best fan]

I been reading some of the dream teams ,and I think I have one that requires some luck but is easier to get too. get lucky in the lottery get #1 pick take davis. use your 2nd pick on meyers leanord or zeller which ever is available. sign dragic and lee. combine martin,patterson and bud and trade them for josh smith. sign oj mayo in free agency. do not resign camby. waive dalambert. that would leave the team looking like this

pg=dragic/lowry
sg=mayo/lee
sf=parsons/morris
pf=montiejunas/scola/smith
c =davis/leanord

(IMO) thats a championship contender for the next 5 years at least

[Ostrow]

There is less of a chance percentage wise that the Rockets would get the first pick than the Rockets getting Howard in a deal and signing him and Williams to long term deals. We have under a 1% chance of winning the lotto I think.