3 replies to this topic

[Red94]

New post: Where things stand on the Houston Rockets front
By: Rahat Huq

The NBA season is a funny thing, isn't it?  It seems like just days ago that the league admitted ineptitude in its handling of a non-call that could've pushed the Rockets within inches of second in the West.  Instead, the team is licking its wounds after getting hammered inside by the Jazz, sitting in fourth, and dangerously close to even seventh with the San Antonio Spurs rolling on all cylinders.  Whoever said the NBA season was a marathon wasn't joking.  It was just yesterday it seems we were all bantering on Twitter whether Donatas Motiejunas and Terrence Jones could be the team's future at the 4-5, almost prematurely turning the page on the Dwight Howard era.  But after Rudy Gobert and the Blazers gobbled the Rockets big men up on the glass, the feeling in Houston is that Superman can't come back soon enough.  It's clearer than ever: despite his efforts in muddying up the Houston offense, this team doesn't have a prayer in the postseason without Howard.

 

Remember James Harden, MVP frontrunner extraordinaire?  He's now shooting 40% on the month of March, and 25% on 3's.  Harden is just as dangerously close to falling out of the MVP race as the team is to dropping to 7th.

 

...but he's just as close to reclaiming the lead as the Rockets are to catching Memphis.  It's a marathon, and even after what seems like the worst loss of the season, the Rockets will probably rip off five straight again in the near future and look like the team they've looked like all season.  We're going to be okay; the sky is not falling.  But there are concerns, of course.

 

For one, Harden looks completely gassed.  That shouldn't come as a surprise, as the bearded man has effectively carried this team on his shoulders for the entire season.  I'd give serious thought to resting him here and there, just to ensure that he's fresh for the postseason, especially after Howard's return.  Motiejunas also has completely fallen off a cliff of late after early season brilliance inside.  He's played more minutes now than he has at any other point in his life, and it's clearly showing.  Those same hook shots that would fall with league-leading regularity are now routinely missing the mark.  This is just a case of a young player hitting the wall.

 

Houston has slipped to 14th in offensive efficiency and sixth in defense.  They play at the third fastest pace in the entire league.  By comparison, on December 1st, after one month of basketball, Houston was 22nd in offense and second in defense, playing at the twelfth fastest pace.  The team has clearly morphed its ways after losing Dwight.

 

How much have the Rockets missed the big man?  Howard last played on January 23rd.  Since that span, the Rockets have been eleventh in the league in defensive efficiency.  They've been dead last in the entire league in defensive rebounding percentage.  From November 1st up to January 23rd, Houston was 6th in defensive efficiency, and 22nd on the defensive boards.  (Since losing Howard, the Rockets have been 11th in offense).

 

What does all of this mean?  The team clearly suffers a bit without Howard both on the boards and overall defensively.  They're a little better on offense.  But you'd have to account for Terrence Jones as well, who is a superior rebounder to Donatas Motiejunas.  Perhaps with both Howard and Jones playing together, Houston is better than just 22nd on the defensive glass?

[Jatman20]

Dwight was playing on damaged wheels.....now he claims he has more explosiveness and rise?? Not sure? I watched a clip of him working out prior to a game.....I didn't see it. A new and improved D12 could mean tons to this team. Maybe I am wrong; but I think teams have gone to a double Harden as soon as he passes half court to get the ball out of his hands earlier. Less Harden going one vs one with a nice amount of time.....forcing other guys to win the game. Thus a guy like Brewer recognizing such tactics and attacking and being agressive. Only problem is everyone else is just watching Brewer out of shock or because they don't know how to compliment another role player being agressive....on the fly!!

Howard may help Harden in the playoffs from such double teaming. Our recent history is struggling PF play (Rockets) vs another teams strength (good PF play). JSmoove is a good off defender; but I was hoping he was a better one on one defender at the PF position. As I said a month ago.....there is no humility in being bounced in the first round this year. When highly rated 1-2 seeds projected before the season have been hovering around 7th and 8th seeds. Good gracious.....what a playoff series this year has in store for everyone. Who ever plays PF they will need to help Dwight. Tough for one guy to go up against two bullies. Gasol/ZBo, Griffin/Jordan, LMA/Robin Lopez, Splitter/Duncan, Kanter/Step Adams, and now Bogut/Draymond Green (smaller guy; but uses leverage well).

Edited by Jatman20, 15 March 2015 - 07:37 PM.

[rocketrick]

OK, So is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty...

Just unsure with all the usual discussion on this board.

[thejohnnygold]

I wanted to respond to this from the front page so I have copy+pasted it below.

 

Some more data on Patrick Beverley

by RAHAT HUQ | MARCH 16, 2015 at 08:25 PM

As I just tweeted, Patrick Beverley isn’t exactly setting the world on fire right now.

 

But as revealed by the eye-test, he isn’t stopping anyone this year either.  The numbers, unfortunately, confirm:

Overall, opponents are shooting 45.1% against Beverley.  They shoot 44.4% otherwise.  On 3’s, opponents are shooting 34.2% against Beverley, and 35.25% otherwise.  On 2’s: opponents are shooting 50% against Beverley, and 48.4% otherwise.

Within 6 feet, opponents are shooting 66% against Beverley, while shooting 60% otherwise; within 10 feet, they are shooting 60%, while shooting 54% otherwise.

 

Now you might say “hold on.  That percentage at the rim is just as much an indictment on the Rockets as a whole as it is of Beverley.”  And you’d have a point.  But that would mean you’d be getting torched regardless of who you put out there, and I have a hard time believing it could be that much worse.  Wouldn’t you be better off playing someone who at least gave you something offensively?  

At this point, Houston is almost playing 4 on 5.

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I'm not going to argue that Beverley is not a weak offensive player--we all know he is limited on that end.  I will counter that these numbers are suspect in my opinion.  Patrick Beverley is, and always has been in my opinion, a better team defender than "lock-down-one-on-one" defender--which is what people are determined to crown him as and then knock him off said throne.

 

I will remind people that articles like this were written: LINK.  That would be an in-house article describing how Bev's "defense" isn't necessarily about "shutting down his guy"--it's about disrupting the other team's entire offense as best as he can.  This ARTICLE which came out a few weeks ago is a little more fair in how it critique's Beverley's season and recent performance.

 

Getting back to that first article, it mentions how important Dwight Howard is to the defense.  Beverley prefers to funnel his man to his left and assumes Howard is going to slide over to seal the perimeter there.  I can't cont the number of times he has done this only to discover that no big has slid over to protect the paint.  He can be seen, palms up, imploring his bigs to play "team" defense.

 

Those shots count against him, but they are a result of poor team play.  If we want to hold that against him so be it, but there is more to his story than opp. fg%'s (which provide zero context should definitely be taken with a grain of salt).

 

According to NBA.com, Bev is giving up 1.0 threes per game and 3.2 two pointers.  That is a whopping 9.4 ppg.  Overall, he is surrendering 4.1 fg's on 9.1 attempts per game.  Given he is guarding those fancy, elite PG's strewn across the league I'd say that isn't too bad.  Even if all of his 3.3 fouls per game were shooting fouls (and we all know they aren't) he'd be giving up an extra 6.6 ppg (assuming 100% ft) for a total of 16 ppg.  That is not locking anyone down, but it is not some sort of albatross either--especially considering the competition.

 

A quick trip to this page at NBA.com (scroll to the bottom) shows that Bev's defense is better with rest--by a lot.  I still contend that once the playoffs arrive we will see a better version of Beverley on the defensive end.  On that same page one can see his splits in wins vs. losses (a huge disparity).  For fun, compare him with Goran Dragic in this regard (LINK).  Defensively, they are similar (according to these numbers).

 

Beverley has not been elite this season, but I do think he has played solid team defense and is crucial to our overall success in ways that opp. fg% doesn't indicate.  Can we upgrade the position this offseason?  Surely, but I don't think it is the end of the world if we don't.  That last remark about playing 4 on 5 on offense would be exactly true for any other PG option we put out there--except it would apply to our defense.  I'll take  my chances playing 4-5 on offense with Harden and Co., thank you.