50 replies to this topic

[redfaithful]

Given the nature of the current WC playoff race where the 5-7 seeding will be determined by who plays better in the last stretch (LAC, SAS and DAL currently have the same number of losses), my assumption is that whoever finishes 7th isn't playing as well as the others. Therefore the 2nd seed means facing the weaker team and is favourable over the 3rd.

[thejohnnygold]

Umm, shouldn't it be about match-ups with real players on the floor and not idealized notions of how good a 7 seed is versus a 2 seed?  That's been the point all along.  We want whatever seed gives us the best player to player match up (and to avoid GS who seem to own us right now--BAD MATCH-UP).  Most people agree that team is Dallas first and foremost.  After that, yeah, it's a pick your poison sort of deal.  

[redfaithful]

The Rockets are 2-2 against the clippers (W's in last 2), 2-1 against Dallas with one more game to play, and 1-1 against San Antonio with 2 more games to play. So none of them seem like a bad matchup like Golden State. After the missing games are played I guess we'll be smarter, my point was that team momentum can play an important factor in a playoff series.

[thejohnnygold]

The Rockets are 2-2 against the clippers (W's in last 2), 2-1 against Dallas with one more game to play, and 1-1 against San Antonio with 2 more games to play. So none of them seem like a bad matchup like Golden State. After the missing games are played I guess we'll be smarter, my point was that team momentum can play an important factor in a playoff series.

 

I agree with that.  I will also repeat it is not about any number you can find in a box score including Wins and Losses.  That win against SA was without 3 of their top players.  One of the Wins against LAC was without their top player the other was without their 6th man of the year (who regularly lights us up) and it was Griffin's first game back.

 

A bad match-up is one where a weakness of ours happens to correspond to an opponent's strength and regular season record does not matter much when you have to beat a team 4 times in a row and coaches can isolate and exploit those advantages with surgical precision.

 

Hence, I think the Clips, Spurs, and Blazers all pose a bigger threat than Dallas.  Momentum, home court, and head-to-head record are factors, but not the ones that concern me nearly as much as match-ups do.

[Losthief]

i guess my point was more about getting to the finals is all that matters. If advancing a round, or two is the goal then sure matchups matter alot more than seeding. But if its finals or bust I feel more confident facing tougher opponents earlier while we have more energy because eventually you have to face them anyways. It definitely increases the chance of going home early, but it also I feel increases the chance for a potential upset.

 

Interesting point about dallas, and while the on-court matchups are maybe more desirable the carsisle advantage i thinks evens that out a little bit. Also the blazers w/o matthews is a better matchup than before (thanks to harden being more free) although that leaves Aldridge as a huge mismatch still.

 

The clippers/blazers scare me more as a playoff team than a regular season team because benches get shorter in the playoffs and there biggest weakness is depth.

 

The spurs be the spurs...and have khawi for putting on harden....

 

I really think its just potluck, but probably would take Dallas by a slim margin too.

 

Unrelated a bit: OKC w/o Ibaka now, does a healthy NO have a better chance to upset GSW than this OKC team now?

Edited by Losthief, 18 March 2015 - 07:50 PM.

[thejohnnygold]

i guess my point was more about getting to the finals is all that matters. If advancing a round, or two is the goal then sure matchups matter alot more than seeding. But if its finals or bust I feel more confident facing tougher opponents earlier while we have more energy because eventually you have to face them anyways. It definitely increases the chance of going home early, but it also I feel increases the chance for a potential upset.

 

Interesting point about dallas, and while the on-court matchups are maybe more desirable the carsisle advantage i thinks evens that out a little bit. Also the blazers w/o matthews is a better matchup than before (thanks to harden being more free) although that leaves Aldridge as a huge mismatch still.

 

The clippers/blazers scare me more as a playoff team than a regular season team because benches get shorter in the playoffs and there biggest weakness is depth.

 

The spurs be the spurs...and have khawi for putting on harden....

 

I really think its just potluck, but probably would take Dallas by a slim margin too.

 

Unrelated a bit: OKC w/o Ibaka now, does a healthy NO have a better chance to upset GSW than this OKC team now?

 

Wait, so by this logic are you saying we should tank to the 8th spot so we can take on GS in the first round since, by most accounts, that is who the Western Conference is going through to get to the finals?

 

I realize you are not saying that, but that is the logic.  The goal is the finals, but, to use a cliche, we've got to take it one series and one game at a time.  Getting to round 2 is a huge deal this year.  4 teams with Finals aspirations are going home in round 1.  Legitimate title aspirations.  Bye-bye.  The odds increase dramatically from round 1 to round 2 and I think it is very important to get there (Thank you, Captain Obvious).  You know what I mean.  Taking the path of least resistance in round 1 is a good thing.

 

4 of these seven teams will be eliminated by round 2: Golden State, Memphis, Portland, LA Clips, SA Spurs, Dallas, and OKC.  The odds go from 12.5% and double to 25%.  That is a good thing.

 

Outside of match-ups, more than one of these series are going to be determined by a player who gets on a hot streak for 3-5 games.  Who it will be I have no idea, but I know a guy who is due for one. 

[cointurtlemoose]

I agree that there are pretty slim degrees of separation in the West, but just for fun, here's my take on matchup preferences, from most preferable to least preferable:

 

1. Dallas

2. Portland

3. San Antonio

4. Memphis

5. LAC

6. Thunder (if healthy, which is now becoming somewhat doubtful actually)

7. Warriors

 

So actually the 2/3 seed range for us is perfect in my eyes. First Round: one of the top three. Second Round: one of the top four (provided the Clippers stay 5th, which I think/hope they will).

 

EDIT: You could easily talk me into swapping Memphis and San Antonio on the rank...

Edited by cointurtlemoose, 18 March 2015 - 11:27 PM.

[thejohnnygold]

Saw this video over at Reddit.com and didn't know where to put it, but it must be seen by all Rockets fans (and old school video gamers).  Whoever made this is my hero.

 

LINK

[thejohnnygold]

Found this interesting graphic.  It shows the number of missed games by each WC teams' "top 5 players" (presumably the starters).

 

 

It's difficult to not think Houston would be nipping at Golden State's heels had we not been #1 on this chart.  It is quite the disparity and now, with Bev down (does he count?), that number continues to climb.  

 

Looking at the standings, I can't help but re-visit that Memphis game that slipped through our fingers.  We would be 1/2 game ahead of them (49-22 for us and 49-23 for them) with a favorable schedule heading down the stretch.  I still don't think it makes too much difference (as long as LAC doesn't slip from 5th place to 6th), but it would have been nice.

[YaoMan]

Found this interesting graphic.  It shows the number of missed games by each WC teams' "top 5 players" (presumably the starters).

 

 

It's difficult to not think Houston would be nipping at Golden State's heels had we not been #1 on this chart.  It is quite the disparity and now, with Bev down (does he count?), that number continues to climb.  

 

Looking at the standings, I can't help but re-visit that Memphis game that slipped through our fingers.  We would be 1/2 game ahead of them (49-22 for us and 49-23 for them) with a favorable schedule heading down the stretch.  I still don't think it makes too much difference (as long as LAC doesn't slip from 5th place to 6th), but it would have been nice.

Wow that is quite a eye-opening graph about injuries to starters (or top players) on the Rockets as opposed to GSW. Obviously health is a huge factor in putting a complete team on the floor to compete day in and day out (as Clyde would say). And Memphis is still in reach with their loss last night.  Great find on the graph JG.

[Fury]

Looking at our schedule down the stretch compared to the Grizzlies, I think it's quite possible that we overcome our 1.5 game deficit and grab hold of the 2 seed. However, it will be difficult. We have to beat them outright in record. We cannot rely on tiebreakers.

 

The Rockets have 11 games remaining. Of these, 6 are against current playoff teams (7 if you want to include the Pelicans, but let's not.) However, two of these playoff teams are the Raptors and the Wizards, neither of whom have looked particularly solid lately. The Wizards have looked especially week, ranking 18th in Hollinger's Power Rankings. We should win both games.

 

Besides that, we have a game at Dallas where we'll both be on the second night of a back-to-back. We have at game at OKC 3 days after that. 3 days later, we have a home-and-home with the Spurs. Our other games are against Minnesota, Sacramento, New Orleans, Charlotte, and Utah.

 

I predict that we lose the game at Dallas and the game at San Antonio. OKC is a non-issue at this point, given the worsening of their injury bug. Harden always plays inspired against his old team. We'll beat San Antonio in Houston. That leaves us at 9-2 down the stretch, assuming we win all of our games against non-playoff teams (not a safe assumption, I realize.) The last game of the season is against red-hot Utah, but we'll likely be playing inspired ball in an effort to secure playoff seeding. We might go 8-3, but I am hoping for a 9-2 finish.

 

Memphis has a much tougher road. They play Golden State at home tomorrow. They'll lose. Golden State shows up for the big games. They play at San Antonio on Sunday. They'll lose. San Antonio is on fire right now, which is why I don't think we'll beat them twice in our home-and home.

 

Memphis should win their next five against Sacramento, OKC, Washington, New Orleans, and Utah. The game against Utah is in Salt Lake, so be on the lookout for a potential upset. 

 

After that, Memphis goes to Staples to play the Clippers. That'll be another loss, as the Clips will be fighting mad for playoff positioning. This is also the second night of a back-to-back. Two days later, Memphis heads north to Oakland to play GS. They'll lose again. They'll win their last game at home against Indiana.

 

All told, I believe Memphis will go 6-4 down the stretch. I think it more likely that they go 5-5 than 7-3. If Memphis goes 6-4 and we go 8-3, we'll finish with tie records. The first tiebreaker is division winner. However, since we're in the same division, we'd tie for the division win. This leads us to...

 

The second tiebreaker: head-to-head records. We're 2-2 against Memphis. Moving on...

 

The third tiebreaker is Division games. is division games. Based on my predictions, we'll finish 8-8 against our division. Memphis will finish 9-7. They win the tiebreaker. However, this all changes if we either beat Dallas or beat the Spurs in both games. Assuming we end up tied in division records, we move on to...

 

The fourth tiebreaker: in-conference record. Unfortunately, Memphis is currently up 4 games on us in-conference. Based on my predictions (with the Rockets losing 3 games instead of 2,) we'll finish 3 games back of them. We won't win this tiebreaker.

 

What all of this means is we cannot end the season tied with Memphis in record. We have to beat them outright; we won't beat them in tiebreakers. This means the Rockets need to take care of business and go 9-2 or better down the stretch. It's not an easy thing to accomplish, but I think the boys in red are up to the challenge, especially with Howard back in the lineup. Hopefully, TJones will be back soon, too.

Edited by Fury, 26 March 2015 - 06:53 PM.

[thejohnnygold]

Fury, I merged this thread with the one that already existed since they cover the same topic.  Nice post.  It's going to be a fun end to the season.

[Mario Peña]

Looking at our schedule down the stretch compared to the Grizzlies, I think it's quite possible that we overcome our 1.5 game deficit and grab hold of the 2 seed. However, it will be difficult. We have to beat them outright in record. We cannot rely on tiebreakers.

 

The Rockets have 11 games remaining. Of these, 6 are against current playoff teams (7 if you want to include the Pelicans, but let's not.) However, two of these playoff teams are the Raptors and the Wizards, neither of whom have looked particularly solid lately. The Wizards have looked especially week, ranking 18th in Hollinger's Power Rankings. We should win both games.

 

Besides that, we have a game at Dallas where we'll both be on the second night of a back-to-back. We have at game at OKC 3 days after that. 3 days later, we have a home-and-home with the Spurs. Our other games are against Minnesota, Sacramento, New Orleans, Charlotte, and Utah.

 

I predict that we lose the game at Dallas and the game at San Antonio. OKC is a non-issue at this point, given the worsening of their injury bug. Harden always plays inspired against his old team. We'll beat San Antonio in Houston. That leaves us at 9-2 down the stretch, assuming we win all of our games against non-playoff teams (not a safe assumption, I realize.) The last game of the season is against red-hot Utah, but we'll likely be playing inspired ball in an effort to secure playoff seeding. We might go 8-3, but I am hoping for a 9-2 finish.

 

Memphis has a much tougher road. They play Golden State at home tomorrow. They'll lose. Golden State shows up for the big games. They play at San Antonio on Sunday. They'll lose. San Antonio is on fire right now, which is why I don't think we'll beat them twice in our home-and home.

 

Memphis should win their next five against Sacramento, OKC, Washington, New Orleans, and Utah. The game against Utah is in Salt Lake, so be on the lookout for a potential upset. 

 

After that, Memphis goes to Staples to play the Clippers. That'll be another loss, as the Clips will be fighting mad for playoff positioning. This is also the second night of a back-to-back. Two days later, Memphis heads north to Oakland to play GS. They'll lose again. They'll win their last game at home against Indiana.

 

All told, I believe Memphis will go 6-4 down the stretch. I think it more likely that they go 5-5 than 7-3. If Memphis goes 6-4 and we go 8-3, we'll finish with tie records. The first tiebreaker is division winner. However, since we're in the same division, we'd tie for the division win. This leads us to...

 

The second tiebreaker: head-to-head records. We're 2-2 against Memphis. Moving on...

 

The third tiebreaker is Division games. is division games. Based on my predictions, we'll finish 8-8 against our division. Memphis will finish 9-7. They win the tiebreaker. However, this all changes if we either beat Dallas or beat the Spurs in both games. Assuming we end up tied in division records, we move on to...

 

The fourth tiebreaker: in-conference record. Unfortunately, Memphis is currently up 4 games on us in-conference. Based on my predictions (with the Rockets losing 3 games instead of 2,) we'll finish 3 games back of them. We won't win this tiebreaker.

 

What all of this means is we cannot end the season tied with Memphis in record. We have to beat them outright; we won't beat them in tiebreakers. This means the Rockets need to take care of business and go 9-2 or better down the stretch. It's not an easy thing to accomplish, but I think the boys in red are up to the challenge, especially with Howard back in the lineup. Hopefully, TJones will be back soon, too.

 

Excellent post Fury. It will be interesting to see if the Rockets can get that 2nd seed. I wonder if the Rockets might have more problems with Utah and Sacramento than we think, teams with nothing to lose that are perhaps on their way to getting on track to be playoff teams next year. I think Harden and company can beat Dallas with a fresh Dwight who might outplay the Mavs frontline players with ease.

 

Nice graph johnnygold and that video is one of the best things I have seen this year, probably deserves it's own thread with some kind of survey question.

[Fury]

The problem with the Dallas game is that Dwight probably won't be playing. It's the second night of a back-to-back, so McHale will probably sit him. We can still beat Dallas without him, but I'm not sure we'll win without Dwight, Jones, or Beverley.

 

Dwight does calm any fears I'd have about losing to Sacramento. Dwight will stop Boogie as much as it is possible to stop him, so we should come out on top there. As for Utah, under any other circumstances I'd worry about that game. However, it's a home game and the final game of the season. If we're fighting with the 2 seed in play, I don't see us losing that game. This team shows up when it has to, which is the main reason why I think we can make some noise in the playoffs.

 

Everybody is sleeping on the Rockets. ESPN likes the Clips and the Spurs more. I hope the boys in red can prove them all wrong.

 

A side note on that great graphic: does the Warriors' good health indicate that they might need to worry about an injury come playoff time? Perhaps to Bogut? People forget that Curry had major ankle issues early in his career. They're deep enough to survive an injury, but something like that can definitely shake a team's confidence in the midst of playoff warfare.

[Mario Peña]

The problem with the Dallas game is that Dwight probably won't be playing. It's the second night of a back-to-back, so McHale will probably sit him. We can still beat Dallas without him, but I'm not sure we'll win without Dwight, Jones, or Beverley.
 
Dwight does calm any fears I'd have about losing to Sacramento. Dwight will stop Boogie as much as it is possible to stop him, so we should come out on top there. As for Utah, under any other circumstances I'd worry about that game. However, it's a home game and the final game of the season. If we're fighting with the 2 seed in play, I don't see us losing that game. This team shows up when it has to, which is the main reason why I think we can make some noise in the playoffs.
 
Everybody is sleeping on the Rockets. ESPN likes the Clips and the Spurs more. I hope the boys in red can prove them all wrong.
 
A side note on that great graphic: does the Warriors' good health indicate that they might need to worry about an injury come playoff time? Perhaps to Bogut? People forget that Curry had major ankle issues early in his career. They're deep enough to survive an injury, but something like that can definitely shake a team's confidence in the midst of playoff warfare.

Obviously we have no idea how this plays as to when players rest and what strings McHale will pull but I am so in right now I cannot get enough Rockets talk and conversation right now. I can't believe there's less than a dozen games left in the regular season! It went by fast and man there's been so many great games, what a year!

As far as the Dallas game goes I believe Howard could easily play if he sits against Sacramento. I'm pretty certain McHale wants to win both so I wouldn't be surprised to see Howard sit the front end of that back to back. Then again who knows, maybe he will play less than 20 minutes in both.

As far as Utah goes who knows if that game will mean anything. At this point it might all be set by then in which case we sure are conversing a lot about nothing but hey I'm just a crazy Rockets fan!

[marbony81110]

It doesn't matter who the Rockets play unless it is Golden State. A healthy Rockets team can beat anyone beside the GSW as it stands right now. The only team I would have a little apprehension about are the Clippers because they have been a problem for Houston. However, the Rockets are playing much better defense this year and should only get stronger with Dwight back and hopefully T.Jones coming back. 

I want the Rockets to finish in the 2 seed just to stick it to all the "experts" who picked them to struggle to even make the playoffs. RedNation!!

[Johnny Rocket]

The West playoff  picture looks to be settling a bit with there clear tiers.  One is GS, a class of their own.  The next is Memphis, Houston, LA, and San Antonio.  The last playoff tier is Portland, Dallas, and Oklahoma.  Houston really, really wants to play one of the teams in that third tier in the first round, which means  finishing 2nd or 3rd seed.   The dream scenario is finishing 2nd, playing a reeling Dallas team in the first round, and then moving on to play Memphis with home court.  That means in the second round that GS would be playing the winner of SA/LA; that second round series will be tough for GS, even though they are a historically great team.  The nightmare scenario is dropping to 5th (a real possibility), and then playing either SA or LA on the road in the first round.  

[redfaithful]

@Johnny Rocket

 

Portland will be no lower than 4 as division champs.

[Johnny Rocket]

Redfaithful--Thanks, I had totally forgotten that.   That means finishing 5th might be more desirable than finishing 3rd.  Let's say the Clippers pass us for #3, Portland is #4, Houston #5, and San Antonio #6.  I'd much rather play Portland than San Antonio in the first round, especially if we end up with a better record and still have home court.

[Fury]

For the first time, Hollinger's Playoff Odds have Houston as the favorite to get the 2 seed. They also have Memphis dropping to the 4, with the Clippers getting the 3.