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@  Mario Peña : (10 October 2015 - 01:12 PM) If your part if the Red94 Fantasy Basketball League check the thread to vote for the date and time for the draft event. Thanks y'all!
@  jorgeaam : (07 October 2015 - 08:47 PM) Guys we need 1 more owner for the Red94 fantasy league, if interested please comment on the post in the fantasy basketball thread
@  slick shoes : (07 October 2015 - 06:50 PM) Kobe ranked one spot higher than Ariza? Is this based on legacy or...??
@  slick shoes : (07 October 2015 - 04:13 PM) It was hard to keep up with both the Astros and Rockets at the same time. Should be interesting on Thursday with the Texans and Astros on simultaneously.
@  Mario Peña : (07 October 2015 - 04:09 PM) It was fun to have the Rockets on last night! Right now I'm watching the Celtics versus Milan and Alessandro Gentile is impressive.
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 07:47 PM) Well, thinking twice about it, I'd rather have him score less and have the team as a whole do better. Lawson should take a lot of his load off
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 07:47 PM) Loving that, hope he hits 30 PPG this year
@  thejohnnygold : (06 October 2015 - 06:15 PM) Someone is feeling confident :) : LINK
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 05:54 PM) 10 Teams done, will need 2 more
@  Mario Peña : (06 October 2015 - 02:35 PM) Alright guys, if anyone is interested in joining the Red94 fantasy basketball league we could use one more player to get us to 10 teams (or three to get us to 12 teams). Just check the thread in the Fantasy Basketball forum. Thanks!
@  thejohnnygold : (05 October 2015 - 06:23 PM) I use leaguepass here in Austin with no problems...
@  skip 2 my lou : (05 October 2015 - 03:14 PM) Hey fellas, I'm a rocket fan but I live in the heart of Dallas. Does anybody know if I buy NBA Leaguepass if it's too close to be subject to blackouts?
@  Losthief : (02 October 2015 - 02:24 AM) tks jg
@  thejohnnygold : (29 September 2015 - 05:16 AM) FYI, it was media day today. Interviews are up at NBA.com
@  slick shoes : (23 September 2015 - 06:37 PM) kind of late in the day but NBATV is broadcasting classis Rockets games all day today.
@  SadLakerFan : (16 September 2015 - 04:37 AM) Man, as a Laker fan, I'm learning how little you care about the off season when your team sucks. Anyway, a quick moment to remember Moses. Still remember watching the 81 team as a kid - losing record, NBA Finals. I would have cried w/joy if they could have beaten the Celtics.
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) http://bleacherrepor...ist-after-crash
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) So to celebrate his new contract, Montrezl Harrell saved someone's life on monday
@  thejohnnygold : (14 September 2015 - 04:36 PM) A good article from Blinebury talking about when Hakeem and Moses used to play in the park. LINK
@  rockets best... : (14 September 2015 - 02:29 AM) I agree totally. I got to watch his Rocket days and the man was a hell of a player. BIG MO R.I.P.

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Missing the point


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#1 thejohnnygold

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Posted 02 February 2015 - 07:59 PM

Patrick Beverley just can't get any respect.  In this Bleacher Report article (which is actually pretty well written and conceived), the author makes a compelling case for the Rockets to make a move to upgrade the PG position.

 

My beef is the statistical validation the author uses to suggest Beverley is a below average (and way over-rated) defender.  Once again, people focus on the percentages and ignore the volume.  Much like the "Dwight Effect" which directs people's attention to how many shots don't even get taken because of him (all of which carry a 0.0 fg%--an excellent score indeed!).

 

In the author's statistical data, Beverley allows opposing PG's to shoot 46.9% against him (+2.7% better than their overall average).  This is true, but it casually glosses right over the number of attempts.  Beverley allows 4.0 makes in 8.6 attempts per game.  Now, stop and think about that.  He primarily defends each team's starting PG and most teams' starting PG is a stud offensive player.  Check out how many shots NBA point guards take per game: LINK.

 

For comparison, Aaron Brooks takes 8.8 shots/game.  Russell Westbrook tops the list with 20 shots/game.

 

Yet, Beverley is constantly derided for his opp fg%.  Well, if we factored in the 0.0% on the extra shots they normally would have taken I think that number would plummet.  (I know that's not how it works, but it is certainly something people should take into account when measuring his overall effect on the game).

 

I know there is overlap and not all of those shots belong to his "natural counterpart".

 

For comparison, here are some other players' numbers:

 

Beverley: 8.6 opp fga (+2.7 fg% above average)  31 mpg

 

Irving: 11.2 opp fga  (+1.2 fg% above average)  38 mpg

 

Lillard: 10.6 opp fga (+.4 fg%)  36 mpg

 

Rondo: 8.1 (+.9%)  31mpg

 

Wall: 10.0 (-1.6%)  36 mpg

 

Westbrook: 7.3 (+.5%)  32 mpg

 

Conley: 10.5 (+1.8%)  32 mpg

 

Curry: 10.3 (-3.8%)  33 mpg

 

Jennings: 7.5 (-.2%)  29 mpg

 

Lowry: 10.8 (-.8%)  35 mpg

 

Paul: 9.1 (-.3%)  34 mpg

 

Knight: 9.1 (-.9%)  32 mpg

 

(all data from NBA.com and ESPN.com)

 

I added the mpg to give it a bit more context and relativity.  It seems I have proven myself wrong :huh: .  Beverley compares favorably, but he doesn't separate himself from other defenders all that much when you account for minutes played.  Russell Westbrook is the clear winner here with Wall a close second.

 

Beverley does outshine Conley and Curry, but once you factor in offensive contributions that diminishes the achievement.

 

I still love Bev's heart and hustle.  His rebounding and shot blocking are excellent.  I also think he has a knack for timely late-game plays that can swing the tide for us.  Still, the numbers don't lie.  He's a solid defender, but not so much that we can ignore the offensive issues.

 

On the positive side, he ranks 9th among PG's in 3fg% while ranking 7th in total 3 attempts.  He is 5th in reb/48 among PG's.  He's solid in other areas too.  I know they are trying to work on his play making abilities and figuring out ways to maximize his skills within the offense, but at the end of the day he is not anywhere near the same league as most of his peers.

 

So much for my "Bev Effect".  Bev is good, but he's not as good as I had thought.  Brandon Knight looked pretty solid though.... :rolleyes:


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#2 Mario Peña

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Posted 03 February 2015 - 03:45 AM

Going back to discussions we had last year I still believe Beverly is that Michael Cooper kind of guy that comes off the bench to defend opposing teams best offensive players on the wing or at the point of attack. I believe just getting that advantage as a guy with fresh legs off the bench let's him disrupt whatever back court groove opposing teams might be getting into midway through that first quarter. Also with Beverly coming off the bench that preserves him as a game disruptor/defensive stopper type for the entire season since his style of play is so intensive. In addition to providing outside shooting from the bench he could also fill in as a starter for stretches when the starters have injuries that occur in the course of any season. This team needs a point guard that can light it up.


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