3 replies to this topic

[adonneus]

From the Rockets' blurb in the latest Power Rankings from NBA.com

 

 

The Rockets still rank second defensively, but they fell apart on that end in losses to Orlando and Golden State last week, and they've allowed nine or more 3-pointers in five of their last seven games. It may be a case of regression to the mean, as only five teams have contested a lower percentage of their opponents jump shots than the Rockets have. 

So why do we so rarely contest jump shots?

 

My first instinct would be that we are focusing more on defensive rebounds, but we're 21st in defensive rebound percentage, so I doubt that's it.

 

Another possibility could be that we are choosing not to contest certain shots. I know Dwight seems not to contest long twos because he's always staying down low to guard a drive or box out. Other players may do this also. Does our distaste for long twos lead us to not defend them as well either? If so, is that maybe by Morey's design?

 

I think one likely culprit is that we are fourth-worst in opponent fast break points per game. It seems like a fast break attempt is either going to be uncontested or a foul. I don't know if fouls count in the original stat that NBA.com referenced, but our poor fast break defense may be to blame for our poor contesting percentage. And our focus on offensive rebounding may be to blame for opponents' fast breaks, especially Beverley's propensity to get some of those crazy rebounds. It's always really cool when he nabs one away from a big, but how many times is he letting his man get down the court for a fast break when he attempts that?

 

The final possibility I can think of is the least appetizing. Maybe our guys just can't keep up with other teams' shooters. Golden State seemed to have a lot of open threes and I think my untrained eye noticed that we were doing a poor job getting around their picks. What do you guys think?

[Losthief]

I'd be interested to know what 'contested' meant in the blurb. If i had the time or access i'd look myself, but there is a big difference between a defender being attached, 1-3ft, 3ft-5ft, 5ft-8ft, and unmarked to a shooter. (I think those are the categories on sportVU but i forget for sure right now). Are we just bad at being next to a guy? Within 3ft or are we just leaving guys wide open (more than 8ft)?

 

Last night didn't look good, but as a eye-test for the year I think for the most part we have been ok in the 1-5ft ranges, but again I don't have the stats right now to back up that eye test. We do protect the rim well which I think is a coaching/gm choice so you may have something with not contesting long 2s to cut off driving lanes maybe? I do see us closing out really really hard on 3s to try to drive them off the 3pt line which is think is a conscious choice, which will lead to some open long 2s (but percentage wise probably less expected points). Again this is all just a train of thoughts not backed up by data at the moment.

 

But yeah, we have been playing at a faster pace in recent weeks, and that has combined with our turnover problem to generate way to many open looks on the break for our opponents. I'm wondering if the faster pace is a conscious choice or just something that is happening since we have a better fast-break team with brewer, smith, and more rest/energy for our starters now. (ariza is down to 7th in minutes from 2nd which is a good trend).

[thejohnnygold]

This may be somewhat of a tangent, but I will try to keep it on topic.  Bear with me....

 

I have become more and more fascinated with the Warriors as this season has progressed.     They aren't just winning, they are blowing teams off the floor.  Much is made of the vaunted offense (deservedly so), but it is their defense that is getting the job done.  The type of defense that we should be playing.  They are running teams off the 3 pt. line and collapsing on anything in the paint.  Duh, that's what everyone does.  Nope, that may be what everyone wants to do, but they are actually accomplishing it.

 

I went through some box scores and shot charts from their 6 losses as well as the 3 victories against us.  The sample size is small, but what stood out to me in the 6 GS losses was opponent bench production.  That was consistently strong in all 6 games.  The second thing was where opponents were scoring against them.  All 6 teams were able to take advantage of the one area Houston refuses to use (mostly)--the mid-range.  They are leaving that 14'-18' range open and the teams who can score from there have a shot to beat them.  The Suns, the Spurs, the Grizz, the Lakers (who were just hot from everywhere), the Clips, and the Thunder all took advantage here.

 

Houston is playing into their hands.  Insisting on shooting from the areas they defend the strongest is reminiscent of watching Mack Brown's UT football teams playing against OU for the last decade (with little success).  We've got our strengths and we don't care if you have clearly got them shut down, we'll just keep butting our heads against that wall....why?  'Cuz we're Texas.

 

McHale and Co. need to come up with a plan that involves multiple sets where 15 footers are getting set up one way or the other.  I'm not saying we should ditch our overall strategy, but adaptability is crucial and under-rated.  People focus on being able to play big and small, but what about being able to play inside, outside, and in the middle?  In this case, it just might be what the doctor ordered.  Given our excellent offensive rebounding I don't think it will be as inefficient as people think and I also think we all agree the best shots are open shots (Josh Smith excluded ).

 

Getting back to Houston and our defense overall.  I think we over shade off the weak-side to the strong-side which leaves lots of uncontested jumpers when they swing the ball.  It has frustrated me for the last season and a half and more.  I'm sure they have their reasons, but I struggle to see the advantage when time after time after time we get smoked by that open shooter while I can detect little advantage from the extra defender in the paint.

 

We've got "elite" rim protection.  Let them do their job and keep our wing defenders glued to their guys.  Now, this is speaking from the eye test.  When I go to bball-reference.com, and look at actual numbers it shows we have the 2nd best opp. 3fg% in the league at .312 on 21.8 attempts per game (13th in the league).  Hard to complain about that.  Perhaps it works well against most teams, but not against them all.

 

GS shot .321, .348, and .409 (chronologically) against us this season on 28, 23, and 22 attempts, respectively.  It seems they have found the holes in our defense as each game gets progressively better.  Granted, we have played them with 3 different line-ups so far this year.  Hard to draw conclusions from any of this, really.

 

Sorry I didn't post any links or screen caps, but this post would have been a mile long if I had.  Here, use this LINK to go to the Warriors page and the first thing you will see when you scroll down is the "Game Results" section.  Mouse over any of those red/green bars and it will show you the game and the score.  You can click on it to go straight to the box scores/shot charts, etc.

[thejohnnygold]

This is an interesting follow-up I just ran across at ESPN.  Not sure if it condemns or confirms my observation, but here it is:

 

 

 

The Warriors’ defense is at its best when it is forcing opponents to score off midrange shots. The Warriors allow 92 points per 100 possessions when opponents score 17 percent or more of their points off midrange shots, and they allow 98 points per 100 possessions when opponents score less than that off midrange shots. 

 

LINK

 

There are also a couple of other points of interest regarding James Harden there.