12 replies to this topic

[Sir Thursday]

So it's a bit early to be talking about the playoffs with any certainty, but with the playoff race so tight I think we can still talk about our potential opponents under the guise of knowing our competition in this stretch run.

We'll have played all of the teams near us at least 3 times by the end of the season, which is usually enough to have a feel for what they're like as a team and our chances against them in the deciding games to come (or in playoff time for that matter).


Feel free to chime in with your impressions of the teams around us, who you'd like to face/prefer to avoid, etc. I'm going to start with what I saw from our game against Memphis.


The Grizzlies didn't look great last night, but I think that's because Z-Bo isn't back up to speed yet. They demolished us early in the year when we played them before he went down, but tonight he provided very little (apart from one or two possessions where he made some unstoppable post moves). When he's back, I think they'll be a different proposition. Marc Gasol is a very underrated defensive player. He shuts down Scola every time we play them - Luis only averages 8.5 points against the Grizzlies this year, and that's predominantly with Marc Gasol guarding him one-on-one (I don't recall many double teams). Great length, seems to know Scola's game and doesn't bite on his fakes.


They are a rare team that I think it's kind of easier to play if you don't have a star - Tony Allen is such a fantastic defender that it helps if your scoring is well distributed across your team. I'd love to see him defending Kobe (I think I'll try and watch next time those two teams play), because he is a nightmare matchup for anyone. But he was predominantly guarding Lee tonight, which (no disrespect to Lee) seems like a waste for a man of his talents. But of course, there isn't anyone else on the Rockets that really fit the profile for him. They put him on Dragic a bit at the end there, but I think he's better guarding a wing than the point because one of the things he is so good at is denying the pass to the man he's guarding. You don't get to do that with PGs because they start with the ball in their hands.


I really don't rate Conley - Lowry always destroys him, and Dragic did the same tonight. The announcers kept going about how he leads the league in steals, but that feels like a pretty useless statistic when measuring defensive prowess as it says nothing about the 90+% of possessions that don't end in a steal. Didn't see a whole lot from him last night, although I recognize that he is usually slightly more productive on the offensive end.

Then there's Rudy Gay. I don't really understand this guy. He seems to be able to dominate effortlessly at times - at the beginning of the game he left Parsons for dead a couple of times. Parsons, who had looked so at home against Durant and Kobe, seemed helpless and it was notable that McHale didn't keep him on Gay all that much. But after that he almost seemed anonymous. I don't remember him really doing much of note for the rest of the game apart from a couple of breakaway dunks. There's a nice piece on Grantland at the moment that touches on this.

Anyway, if I supported a title contender, I'd be very scared about having to play these guys in the Playoffs - they almost seem built to take on teams as underdogs - they've got some great defensive players, they seem to score almost as many points with their defense leading to fast breaks as they do in the half court. They were missing some offense tonight but once ZBo is healthy that will be back up a bit and everyone else should be scared of them. But as I said earlier, I think their set up perversely means that they don't actually match up as well against the Rockets as they do against some of the better teams.

ST

[majik19]

The Grizzlies likely won't land high enough (and neither will we) so that we're paired in a first round matchup. Even so, no, I don't want to play them in the playoffs, even with our bigger front line since the deadline.

[Alituro]

I honestly think we can match up pretty well with anybody in the West. For the reasons stated, Memphis seems like they'll give us the most trouble. I also think we'd get dominated by the Clippers. They got good depth and youth like us, but where they beat us is with 2 stars in Griffin and Paul. We haven't played them yet though with our Dragic starting nor with Camby on the roster. Both are reasons we may be able to compete better with them. It looks like we'll be paired with the Spurs or Thunder in the first round, which I like. I think we can make a long series, at least, out of either of them. If we happen to make it to round 2, it looks like Memphis is being paired with LAC right now, if it stands, then at least one of our two biggest worries will have been beaten. I would rather face Memphis over Clippers though, at least we've shown some success against the Grizzz this season.

[RocketMan]

I feel good about our ability to win at least 2 games against any top team in the West. I don't see us playing well against the Spurs for some reason. We play well against the Thunder, but I'm afraid they will be kicking into beast mode once the playoffs start.

The biggest thing that would boost my confidence level would be winning more road games the last bit of the season.
As of 5 April: Home(20-8) Away(9-17). Even if we win every home game in the playoffs, that would only help us if we have the Thunder's record going in.

[Sir Thursday]

Here's what dailythunder.com has to say about facing the Rockets in Round 1:

Houston Rockets (29-25, No. 7)

Remaining games: 12 (5 at home, 7 against .500+ teams)

Stating their case: This is the first option that will make many Thunder fans at least a little bit uneasy. The Rockets have already beaten OKC twice this year, and a comeback from 11 points down late in a March home game was one of the Thunder’s most painful losses of the season. Luis Scola has always been tough for the Thunder to handle. He’s big enough and skilled enough that Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison are all less-than-ideal matchups against him defensively. And new acquisition Marcus Camby can team up with Samuel Dalembert to provide 12 hard fouls every night, helping to keep the Thunder out of the paint and out of their comfort zone.

Scare factor: Real. The Thunder would obviously be a favorite in the series, and regular season success doesn’t always mean a team can continue it in the playoffs. Chicago did well against Miami last year in the regular season and then got smoked in the playoffs, for example. Chandler Parsons just killed the Thunder in the aforementioned come-from-behind win over OKC, and it’s hard to see the Rockets getting that kind of help from their role players four times in seven games. But Houston beating the Thunder, on paper, wouldn’t be as surprising as the Golden State giant killing of Dallas in 2007, among other playoff upsets.

Likely finish: No. 7. And with the Thunder looking as likely to end up at No. 2 as No. 1 at this point, despite a kinder finishing schedule than San Antonio, that’s a scary thought.

[RocketMan]

Nice article. It does make me feel better to know that OKC fans are at least concerned about the matchup. The key to the whole thing was the part about trying to compare regular season and playoff games. Might as well be two different seasons as far as I'm concerned. Everything from the rotation to the play-calling can totally change at any time.
... Who has the better coach?

[Ostrow]

I think it's less who has the better coach and more who knows their roles well and stays within them.

[Alituro]

Here's hoping that we can hold on at #6. That would almost guarantee a matchup with the Lakers. While we're going to have a hard time making it to the second round regardless, out of the teams in the top 4 right now, I think our best chance comes against the Lakers. Second best chance comes against the Thunder. The Lakers, from what I've read, aren't intimidated by anybody not named the Spurs, Thunder or Mavericks. This is the type of series where we're able to come out in game 1 and catch them sleeping, stealing the home court advantage from the get go. This series will go 6 or 7 games. I look forward to this because there is no team that I despise more than the Lakers (even over the Heat).

[Rahat Huq]

Here's hoping that we can hold on at #6. That would almost guarantee a matchup with the Lakers. While we're going to have a hard time making it to the second round regardless, out of the teams in the top 4 right now, I think our best chance comes against the Lakers. Second best chance comes against the Thunder. The Lakers, from what I've read, aren't intimidated by anybody not named the Spurs, Thunder or Mavericks. This is the type of series where we're able to come out in game 1 and catch them sleeping, stealing the home court advantage from the get go. This series will go 6 or 7 games. I look forward to this because there is no team that I despise more than the Lakers (even over the Heat).

Interesting - Lakers are the team I fear most. I'd prefer to face the Thunder.

[Rahat Huq]

So I guess here are the other probable West teams:

Thunder, Spurs, Lakers, Clippers, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Nuggets(?)

The Rockets can beat any of these teams in a 7 game series. (Doesn't mean they will, but they can.) I think the best matchup in that group is the Thunder and then the Nuggets. Not sure what to think of the Spurs. The other 4 scare me. But I don't see the Rockets slipping back down to 7. So you're looking at possibly facing the Lakers and then if you win, the 2-7 (Spurs vs. Mavs?).

Should be interesting. Whatever happens, thank god for that Camby trade. It gives us a chance against anyone.

[Lyfestyle]

I'd least want to face the Lakers or Grizzlies, personally.

I think our best-case scenario is to get in against the Clippers.

[Alituro]

The thing that worries me about the thunder is Durant plays so damned tall for the 6'9" he is. He plays like a 7 footer with that huge wingspan, dribbles and shoots like a guard though. He creates one of the only actual physical mismatches in the playoffs. The other, IMO is Rudy Gay, while not as formidable as Durant, is quite the longfellow, and often has 2 7 footers in the post behind him. Being top scoring options for their teams, they will be hard to stop for 7 games because of the physical mismatches they create at their positions. The Spurs worry me too because they are made up so similarly to us, just better with better coaching. Haven't really considered the Nugs, we wouldn't face them 1st round. I think we can take the Clips and Mavs. The Lakers don't scare me as much as the folks around here, a good team underachieving with a BAD coach. I think if I had to rank the current playoff teams in order of who I fear most it would be: Spurs, Thunder, Grizz, Lakers, Mavs, Clippers, Nugs, respectively... Whatever happens in the end, I don't want Spurs, Lakers, or Mavs in the finals (again), regardless of the Rockets' say-so in the matter.

[Lyfestyle]

The thing that worries me about the thunder is Durant plays so damned tall for the 6'9" he is. He plays like a 7 footer with that huge wingspan, dribbles and shoots like a guard though. He creates one of the only actual physical mismatches in the playoffs.

I don't disagree with you entirely. Durant's a god-damned beast, for sure, but the Thunder are primarily a jump-shooting, scoring in transition-type team. They have no post presence and they're not out-of-this-world defensively, either. Kobe shoots a lot of jumpers, but their big guys can, and will, pound you. They scare me far more than the Thunder do, even though I think Brooks is the far superior coach.