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@  majik19 : (13 October 2015 - 09:09 PM) Apparently we claimed Arsalan Kazemi off waivers from the Hawks today... yet another undersized (6'7") power forward for Morey's cupboard.
@  Mario Peña : (10 October 2015 - 01:12 PM) If your part if the Red94 Fantasy Basketball League check the thread to vote for the date and time for the draft event. Thanks y'all!
@  jorgeaam : (07 October 2015 - 08:47 PM) Guys we need 1 more owner for the Red94 fantasy league, if interested please comment on the post in the fantasy basketball thread
@  slick shoes : (07 October 2015 - 06:50 PM) Kobe ranked one spot higher than Ariza? Is this based on legacy or...??
@  slick shoes : (07 October 2015 - 04:13 PM) It was hard to keep up with both the Astros and Rockets at the same time. Should be interesting on Thursday with the Texans and Astros on simultaneously.
@  Mario Peña : (07 October 2015 - 04:09 PM) It was fun to have the Rockets on last night! Right now I'm watching the Celtics versus Milan and Alessandro Gentile is impressive.
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 07:47 PM) Well, thinking twice about it, I'd rather have him score less and have the team as a whole do better. Lawson should take a lot of his load off
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 07:47 PM) Loving that, hope he hits 30 PPG this year
@  thejohnnygold : (06 October 2015 - 06:15 PM) Someone is feeling confident :) : LINK
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 05:54 PM) 10 Teams done, will need 2 more
@  Mario Peña : (06 October 2015 - 02:35 PM) Alright guys, if anyone is interested in joining the Red94 fantasy basketball league we could use one more player to get us to 10 teams (or three to get us to 12 teams). Just check the thread in the Fantasy Basketball forum. Thanks!
@  thejohnnygold : (05 October 2015 - 06:23 PM) I use leaguepass here in Austin with no problems...
@  skip 2 my lou : (05 October 2015 - 03:14 PM) Hey fellas, I'm a rocket fan but I live in the heart of Dallas. Does anybody know if I buy NBA Leaguepass if it's too close to be subject to blackouts?
@  Losthief : (02 October 2015 - 02:24 AM) tks jg
@  thejohnnygold : (29 September 2015 - 05:16 AM) FYI, it was media day today. Interviews are up at NBA.com
@  slick shoes : (23 September 2015 - 06:37 PM) kind of late in the day but NBATV is broadcasting classis Rockets games all day today.
@  SadLakerFan : (16 September 2015 - 04:37 AM) Man, as a Laker fan, I'm learning how little you care about the off season when your team sucks. Anyway, a quick moment to remember Moses. Still remember watching the 81 team as a kid - losing record, NBA Finals. I would have cried w/joy if they could have beaten the Celtics.
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) http://bleacherrepor...ist-after-crash
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) So to celebrate his new contract, Montrezl Harrell saved someone's life on monday
@  thejohnnygold : (14 September 2015 - 04:36 PM) A good article from Blinebury talking about when Hakeem and Moses used to play in the park. LINK

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Goran Dragic vs. Kyle Lowry


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#1 Rahat Huq

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    Posted 31 March 2012 - 01:59 PM

    Since I'll be doing this series for the next few months, I think it makes sense to keep a static thread in here for ongoing discussion as the blog posts get pushed down.

    You can reference all of the posts from the series here or by clicking the 'Dragic vs. Lowry' tag at the bottom of any of the installments.

    So far, I've looked into their overall numbers, and I've talked to Goran about playing the shooting guard position. I'll explore the free agent market and look into other topics as the series continues.
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    #2 Voecklen

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      Posted 31 March 2012 - 05:04 PM

      I'm sure I'll add some later but for now I'd like to make a suggestion. Change the title. The Rockets are a team and as a media person you're somewhat a part of that team. As fans we all are as well. So rather than using a controversial title try something like this. "Lowry and Dragic. The dilemma. How should the Rockets proceed?
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      #3 majik19

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        Posted 31 March 2012 - 05:46 PM

        The better Dragic gets, the harder it becomes to justify keeping both of them, but Morey will not let Dragic go for nothing. If we could resign Dragic to a Lowry like contract and deal Lowry for a bona-fide star 2, 4, or 5 (with our multiple first round picks), don't you have to? Earlier in the year, I said an emphatic "no" to trading him, but now... harder to say. Not because I don't think he's a great player. But just because it looks like we can replace his production with Dragic.
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        #4 apt2rant

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          Posted 01 April 2012 - 04:11 PM

          The problem is that we probably can't sign Dragic to a Lowry type deal. Lowry was under the league's radar and a backup when he signed his deal. Dragic will have other suitors on the open market and it won't just be the Rockets who think he can be a successful starter. I think it is unlikely that we will be able to sign Dragic unless Morey thinks that Dragic is worth paying more than Lowry. I think how Dragic performs in the push for the playoffs, and hopefully in the playoffs, will go a long way to determining how this plays out.
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          #5 Rahat Huq

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            Posted 01 April 2012 - 06:25 PM

            The problem is that we probably can't sign Dragic to a Lowry type deal. Lowry was under the league's radar and a backup when he signed his deal. Dragic will have other suitors on the open market and it won't just be the Rockets who think he can be a successful starter. I think it is unlikely that we will be able to sign Dragic unless Morey thinks that Dragic is worth paying more than Lowry. I think how Dragic performs in the push for the playoffs, and hopefully in the playoffs, will go a long way to determining how this plays out.

            I agree with your first point and disagree with your second point.

            Lowry was under the radar. Dragic has been on the league's radar since that outburst against the Spurs. In between now and then, he was seen as just underperforming. Now people are seeing him as finally fulfilling that potential and becoming the player they all expected him to one day become.

            As to your second point, I don't think that's the calculus. I think Dragic is better. But let's assume in arguendo that Lowry is better and that the Rockets also believe that Lowry is better. The Rockets' MO is to simply not let value get away. They would have to consider Lowry to be far better to allow that Dragic value to just get away uncompensated.

            Let's say they rate Lowry as a 6 and Dragic as a 5. Letting Dragic get away keeps you at 6. Trading Lowry and keeping Dragic, keeps you at 11, by receiving 6 in trade return.

            I think that's the way they'll look at it.

            The only variables in my opinion is if they consider Lowry to be far better, which I think is unlikely or if Dragic somehow decides to come back without caring about being a starter.
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            #6 Ostrow

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              Posted 03 April 2012 - 09:53 AM

              Dragic is restricted so that makes it a little easier for the Rockets. I think they have to make some sort of deal. They are both too good to not have value. The Rockets need to use that to improve other places. I don't think Dragic will get paid THAT much. He still has some major flaws in his game and for the most part, the teams with money don't need PGs
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              #7 redfaithful

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              Posted 03 April 2012 - 12:35 PM

              Dragic is not restricted.
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              #8 Rahat Huq

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                Posted 03 April 2012 - 12:54 PM

                Dragic is restricted so that makes it a little easier for the Rockets. I think they have to make some sort of deal. They are both too good to not have value. The Rockets need to use that to improve other places. I don't think Dragic will get paid THAT much. He still has some major flaws in his game and for the most part, the teams with money don't need PGs

                Dragic is not restricted. That's where this entire issue arises. Otherwise they could just re-sign him and sort the whole thing out later.
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                #9 pharmag

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                  Posted 03 April 2012 - 01:39 PM

                  There is some very conflicting information out there which might be why he thought Dragic was restricted (rotoworld actually reports him as being a RFA for 2012-2013...if you trust them). Might explain why Ostrow thought he was an RFA. For those who don't know, the way contracts work for rookies is like this:

                  For a 1st round pick, the rookie receives 2 years guaranteed as well as 2 more years with team options. If the team picks up both team option years, then at the end of the contract, the rookie becomes a RFA as long as the team makes a qualifying offer.

                  For a 2nd round pick (and all other players), they can only become a RFA after their first 3 years in the NBA.

                  Goran Dragic falls under the latter category as he was picked 45th overall (15th pick in 2nd round) in the 2008 draft. Had the Rockets not picked up the team option on his contract last year, he could have become a RFA. However, since he is completing his 4th season in the NBA, he becomes a UFA (unfortunately).
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                  #10 Alituro

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                    Posted 03 April 2012 - 02:47 PM

                    The best course for the Rockets concerning these two, IMO, is to pay Dragic whatever it requires to retain him. Keep Lowry also and Package Martin with some extras and ship him off. If Dragic is worried about not playing the minutes he's definitely earned, he will be able to split some with Lee at the 2 and give Kyle a Breather. Distributed equally they all 3 can play 32 minutes a game which is starter minutes. The Lowry/Dragic back court tandem can be SCARY good, and with 1 or 2(with Motie) 7-footers holding down the lane, the height Dragic gives up wont be a grave concern. Dragic has been an outstanding PG during this stretch, but his play style is more akin to a SG. You could get something nice packaging Martin and Patterson and a couple picks, and make way for Motie at the 4, let Motie learn from Scola for a couple years. People around here are high on Pat, but I'm yet to be too impressed. Basically we need to hold onto Dragic..
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                    #11 Voecklen

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                      Posted 03 April 2012 - 04:35 PM

                      Alituro,

                      I'm glad you posted this. It seems that the vast majority of Rocket fans seems to believe that the situation is either/or. I don't buy this in the least and think it's rather shortsided to assume that Morey won't be at least exploring this option. So now is a good time for those folks in the either/or camp to step up and explain why they see it that way. Perhaps explain it from a basketball reasons perspective and a cap management long term view. I admit I don't have a great deal of knowledge in the second part but from what I know I really don't think the money should be a limiting factor if they can deal Martin.

                      As to another of your points, why do you feel Dragic is a SG more so than a PG. He penetrates better than all but a few SG's but dishes off better than most PG's. And he doesn't really shoot all that much. To me he's close to a classic pass first PG. What are you seeing that I'm not?

                      Finally, I'll say that I rather start Dragic. He's better (IMO) and Kyle really could be a very good spark plug off the bench. He's more score first which is quality Manu and Terry have and is really required for a guy coming in to get a team going.
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                      #12 Lyfestyle

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                        Posted 03 April 2012 - 05:01 PM

                        It seems that the vast majority of Rocket fans seems to believe that the situation is either/or. I don't buy this in the least and think it's rather shortsided to assume that Morey won't be at least exploring this option. So now is a good time for those folks in the either/or camp to step up and explain why they see it that way.


                        It's either/or because Dragic is likely to be offered a chance to be a starting point guard going forward for another team and the Rockets simply can't do that without dealing Lowry. Dragic himself told Rahat he's not really into playing at the 2. A guy in his situation is going to want a starting gig.
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                        #13 majik19

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                          Posted 04 April 2012 - 12:33 AM

                          Let's not forget how much better of these guys have been in starting roles, as opposed to bench roles.
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                          #14 Ostrow

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                            Posted 05 April 2012 - 10:20 PM

                            My bad. I thought I had read that he was. How much are they expecting him to get? I can't see him getting much more than 6 based off of one year of perfomance
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                            #15 Ostrow

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                              Posted 06 April 2012 - 10:43 PM

                              Also, I know this has nothing to do with anything but NBA2k12 does not like Goran. They have Boykins as a better player.
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                              #16 Stephen

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                                Posted 08 April 2012 - 08:48 PM

                                First the basics. They're the same age,Kyle born March 25,'86 and Goran May 6,'86. (Side note,just cracked up when Kyle joined Bill and Clyde in booth during game and referred to Dragic as "the kid".)
                                Their stats are very close w/edge to Goran,Kyle has a better winning % as a starter.

                                I doubt Kyle would get traded unless/until Goran signs a new contract w/the team.(Or Deron Williams signs as a FA :) .)

                                Now for the money.
                                We have to keep in mind the ground rules are changing in two yrs. Next season,like this one,the NBA and Players agree the Salary Cap and Lux Tax threshold would be frozen at last Season's rate. But the season after that,the Cap is figured w/the new lower Players" % and massive new Lux Tax penalties. Without significant new revenues expected in the next year,it's very possible the Cap will decrease.(Remember Boston and Houston are forming their own TV networks where they can keep the money from counting as BRI.)
                                This can lead to a baseball scenario where there are a couple of players getting huge deals and the rest getting very low salaries. Already we've seen speculation that NBA FA salaries will drastically shrink in 2013.

                                So what can Dragic reasonably expect?
                                Based on past few yrs,good back-up PGs get @ $4-4.5mil/yr(Sessions,Blake,Foye,Gibson),really good back-up/borderline starters get the old MLE @ $5.5mil to start(Lowry,Udrich,Ridnour) and good starting PGs around $8mil(Conley,Nelson,Mo Williams,Stuckey,Calderon,Hinrich),old quality starting vets @ $7.5mil(Andre Miller) and young starting PGs w/a slightly shaky history get $7mil+(Felton).
                                Teams can sign their own FAs for up to 5 yrs w/a 7.5% annual raise,while can sign other FAs for only up to 4 yrs and a 4.5% raise.
                                Examples:
                                1) a team signs its own FA to a 5 yr deal starting at $6.5mil. Then goes to $7.25mil,$8mil,$8.75mil and finally $10.5mil for a total of 5yrs/$41mil.
                                2) a team signs a FA to a 4 yr deal starting at $7.5mil. Then it goes to $7.84mil,$8.18mil and finally $8.52mil for a total of 4yrs/$32.2mil.
                                Note that guaranteeing just $3mil of last yr on example 1 gives the player more guaranteed money than in example 2.(And team 1 can stretch buy-out the last 2 yrs at less than $2.4mil a yr on the Cap for 5 yrs,most of that on the expectedly higher Cap w/the new TV deal in a few yrs.)
                                Safe to say Dragic has played his way past the $4mil threshold.

                                It's safe to say Goran has played himself out of the $4mil pay scale.
                                If he has a decent Play-Off Serious he'll price himself beyond the MLE scale. If on the other hand he gets torched by a Parker,Westbrook then he'll probably fall back into the $5-6mil range.
                                A decent Play-Off run and he likely gets a Conley type deal,averaging @ $8mil,starting under $7mil.
                                A great Play-Off run and he likely gets $7.5-8mil+ to start.
                                Anything more than that and the offering team is way over-paying.
                                But to command higher salaries there has to be at least one other team willing to pay it. And this off-season there will be several.
                                Dallas by stretching Carter and buying out Odom will have around $10mil in Cap room. If Williams doesn't come to Dallas they need a PG badly. Portland needs a PG and will have at least $8mil in Cap room. NO could use an upgrade over Jack. If Williams leaves NJ.

                                The Rockets will likely make a 5 yr offer,the last yr partially guaranteed(just as Lowry's last yr is only $1mil guaranteed) starting @ $6-6.5mil.
                                That does mean the team would be paying Dragic almost $9mil when he is 30 yrs old.
                                Other teams will prob make offers starting from $7-8mil. I don't see the Rockets making an offer starting that high as the 7.5% pay raise of $500,000 to $600,000 that could come with could see Dragic at over $10mil in the fourth yr when he'd be 30.
                                A Rocket offer starting at $6mil w/the 7.5% raise for 5 yrs,and "only" $4mil of the fifth yr's $8.9mil guaranteed,would end up guaranteeing @ $100,000+ more than another team's 4 yr offer starting at $7.5mil.
                                Note that such a deal would only pay Dragic some $250,000 more than Kyle next yr and @ $500,000 the yr after.

                                To sum up,I believe the Rockets will offer Dragic a deal starting at $6mil and w/a few dollars more or less extra and 5th yr guaranteed money perhaps raised a bit,I think Dragic signs.
                                At that point the team explores Lowry trades,but likely doesn't trade Lowry til the Feb trade deadline.
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                                #17 Stephen

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                                  Posted 08 April 2012 - 09:31 PM

                                  Oh F***! I totally butchered the math.
                                  Kinda destroyed the whole point I was trying to make.

                                  The raise on $6mil would be $450,000 not the $720,000 I used.
                                  Makes it $6mil,$6.45,6.9,7.35,7.8 for 5 yrs for $34.5mil.
                                  Still more than the $32mil plus on a $7.5mil/4 yr deal another team could offer by some 2mil.
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                                  #18 Sir Thursday

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                                  Posted 09 April 2012 - 02:54 AM

                                  So, Lowry back tonight. Looked a bit rusty, but then that's to be expected. It'll be interesting to see if we get both of them on the floor at the same time at all.

                                  ST

                                  EDIT: And as I type that, they're both on the court :)
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                                  #19 rockets best fan

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                                  Posted 11 April 2012 - 06:42 PM

                                  stephen you are right on target. I keep telling people dragic will be resigned but they don't believe me. glad you did the math so I can show these dumbies.
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                                  you can only warn a man that the bridge is out.....if he keeps driving he's on his own B)


                                  #20 Alituro

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                                    Posted 12 April 2012 - 09:27 PM

                                    Watching Dragic, I knew he reminded me of a past player, today I figured out who... Pistol Pete Maravich...



                                    If that's this kids ceiling, we need to hang on to him. The Similarities are striking.
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