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@  slick shoes : (23 September 2015 - 06:37 PM) kind of late in the day but NBATV is broadcasting classis Rockets games all day today.
@  SadLakerFan : (16 September 2015 - 04:37 AM) Man, as a Laker fan, I'm learning how little you care about the off season when your team sucks. Anyway, a quick moment to remember Moses. Still remember watching the 81 team as a kid - losing record, NBA Finals. I would have cried w/joy if they could have beaten the Celtics.
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) http://bleacherrepor...ist-after-crash
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) So to celebrate his new contract, Montrezl Harrell saved someone's life on monday
@  thejohnnygold : (14 September 2015 - 04:36 PM) A good article from Blinebury talking about when Hakeem and Moses used to play in the park. LINK
@  rockets best... : (14 September 2015 - 02:29 AM) I agree totally. I got to watch his Rocket days and the man was a hell of a player. BIG MO R.I.P.
@  Mario Peña : (13 September 2015 - 05:24 PM) Sad to see Moses pass. I don't remember watching him as a Rocket but I do remember his Philly and Hawks teams. He was the perfect man to mentor Dream. It's a very sad day for his family and friends and there are many.
@  majik19 : (12 September 2015 - 09:01 PM) i just saw a post wishing Yao Ming a happy 35th birthday... am I the only one whose mind is blown that he's only 35?
@  cointurtlemoose : (08 September 2015 - 01:17 AM) aaaah, thanks jorge
@  jorgeaam : (08 September 2015 - 12:21 AM) Love it how Hinkie and Morey always target the same players, but hoping he isn't another Covington
@  thejohnnygold : (08 September 2015 - 12:03 AM) Christian Wood has signed with Philly
@  jorgeaam : (07 September 2015 - 10:32 PM) If I'm not wrong, he hasn't been waived yet, they have until october 4th to do that
@  cointurtlemoose : (07 September 2015 - 05:39 PM) Anyone else surprised that Kostas hasn't gotten picked up by anyone yet? I wanna see that guy play somewhere
@  redfaithful : (05 September 2015 - 10:48 PM) Llull line from today loss to Serbia: 30MIN 1-10PG, 0-5 3PG, 4-4FT 6AST, 1TO, 4REB, +/- -11
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:27 AM) this dude's gun fired and all he got a misdemeanor at bush lol: http://abc13.com/new...ush-iah/815795/
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:26 AM) theres more articles all over, but the jist is houston (and texas) doesn't really arrest for it, they just recommend you leave it in your car when they catch it. So seems dwight got lucky he was in texas and not cali or the NE.
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:22 AM) honestly we should just be glad they caught it...
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:21 AM) response: http://nymag.com/dai...n_airplane.html
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 01:42 AM) one bullet left in the chamber is diff than fully loaded and ready to go. Still stupid...but not like he was prepared for a shooting spree.
@  jorgeaam : (02 September 2015 - 09:33 PM) http://www.tmz.com/2...t-get-arrested/

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Schedule Analysis 2014/15


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#1 Sir Thursday

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Posted 04 November 2014 - 06:42 PM

It's back! A few games late, but still. As I've done in previous years, I'll separate out the Rockets' opponents into tiers and attempt to use this to estimate their win total for the season. Interesting things to note:

 

  • I've added more nuance to the 'Favourite' category because I think there are two separate groups of teams in that bracket this year. Some of them are not pushovers but we should still beat the majority of the time, whereas others are more of a challenge but I would still favour the Rockets.
  • I've put OKC down in the 'Underdog' section despite their injury woes - we only play them once before Durant and Westbrook come back.

As usual, I welcome any feedback about where you think opposing teams should go within the tiering system. I'll update this periodically with changes depending on how teams are playing throughout the season.

 

This next section is a good chance to see how well calibrated the system is. 3 wins out of 5 should be doable, getting 4 would be a good result. They can beat up on Philly and Minny at the back-end but need to take one or two against the tougher opponents first.

 

ST

 

 

Current Standings:
 
1. Memphis (4-0)

2. Houston (4-0)

3. Golden State (3-0)

4. Portland (1-2)
5. Sacramento (3-1) 

:

 

Since Last Update:
 

@ LA Lakers (W)

@ Utah (W)

vs Boston (W)

@ Philadelphia (W)

 

Projected Score: 3.7 wins

Actual Score: 4 wins

 

 

Next 5 Games:
 

@ Miami (3-0)

vs San Antonio (1-1)

vs Golden State (3-0)

@ Minnesota (1-2)

vs Philadelphia (0-4)

 

Projected Score: 3.2 wins

 

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Gimmes (90% wins):

 

Boston x2 (1-0)

LA Lakers x3 (1-0)

Orlando x2

Milwaukee x2

Minnesota x4

Philadelphia x2 (1-0)

Utah x4 (1-0)

 

Current: 4-0

Expected: 17-2

 

Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

 

Brooklyn (x2)

Charlotte (x2)

Detroit (x2)

Denver (x4)

Indiana (x2)

New York (x2)

Sacramento (x3)

 

Current: 0-0

Expected: 14-3

 

 

Favourites (60% wins):

 

Atlanta (x2)

Miami (x2)

New Orleans (x4)

Phoenix (x4)

Toronto (x2)

Washington (x2)

 

Current: 0-0

Expected: 10-6

 

Even (50% wins):

 

Chicago (x2)

Dallas (x4)

Golden State (x4)

Portland (x3)

Memphis (x4)

 

Current: 0-0

Expected: 9-8

 

Underdogs (30% wins):

 

Cleveland (x2)

LA Clippers (x4)

Oklahoma City (x3)

San Antonio (x4)

 

Current: 0-0

Expected: 4-9

 

Predicted Record: 54-28


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#2 timetodienow1234567

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Posted 04 November 2014 - 06:44 PM

Chicago is even?
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Why so Serious? :D


#3 Sir Thursday

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Posted 04 November 2014 - 06:54 PM

Chicago is even?

 

That's more based on a preseason expectation of where they'd be - I haven't had a chance to watch any of their games yet. Why, were you thinking we should be favourites or underdogs against them?

 

ST


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#4 timetodienow1234567

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Posted 04 November 2014 - 08:03 PM

Underdogs. I think they're right up there with Cleveland and SA as top echelon teams. I think you should switch them and the Clips.
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#5 txtdo1411

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Posted 04 November 2014 - 08:15 PM

I always enjoy these. I disagree somewhat on a couple of the teams. The tier system seems more like a power ranking rather than which teams we match-up well/poorly with. 

 

Memphis- I agree that we are "even" with them as we should finish with around the same W-L record. That being said I believe it is a poor match-up for our team, so I would probably put the in the "underdog" tier. Their defensive grind it out style just does not play to our strengths. Last year they gave us fits, and I expect the same this season. Although, with our team seemingly having a more "defensive & rebounding" mindset it could be different this season. 
 

San Antonio- I agree that they are a better team, and will probably finish with a better record. At the same time, we seem to match-up very well with them. They always seem to struggle with read and react athletic teams that don't necessarily have an offensive system in place. The Rockets are the epitome of that type of offense, and I believe the Spurs will struggle to stop us again this year. I would probably put them in the "even" tier even though the are certainly the "better" team. 

 

These are the two that stood out to me the most. The other two I would consider moving to another tier would be Sacramento and Chicago. Sacramento has looked pretty strong in these first few games, and they have a dominant big that can match up with Dwight. I would probably put them in the "favourites" tier. Also Chicago I would probably put in the "underdogs" tier. Their discipline and stifling defense always gives us fits. Also I love the way they are utilizing AB. 

 

All in all a really good write up ST! Much appreciated sir. 


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#6 Sir Thursday

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Posted 28 November 2014 - 10:34 AM

OK, I've made a few changes to the categories to take into account some of the above feedback and what I've seen so far. I think there are still a few more changes to be made but IMO it's still too early to be able to confirm all the teams' levels yet. What I moved was:

 

Milwaukee: Gimme->Heavy Favourites

Memphis: Even->Underdogs

San Antonio: Underdogs->Even

 

I'm tempted to move Toronto and Sacramento up a bit and Cleveland down slightly, but I'm going to hold off until I've seen a little more before coming to a decision on those.

 

As it stands, we managed to gain one game against our expectations over the past stretch. This seemed low to me, but it goes to show that if you want to get to the mid-50 win range, you have to be winning consistently (and also that our schedule has been pretty forgiving so far).

 

The next stretch of games has a couple of difficult ones in, so going 3-2 would probably be a reasonable outcome. Going to be tough if Howard is out for much longer though...

 

ST

 

 

Current Standings:
 
1. Memphis (12-3)

2. Golden State (12-2)

3=. Portland (12-3)

3=. Houston (12-3)
5. San Antonio (10-4)

6. Dallas (11-5)

7. LA Clippers (9-5)

:

 

Since Last Update:
 

@ Miami (W)

vs San Antonio (W)

vs Golden State (L)

@ Minnesota (W)

vs Philadelphia (W)

@ Oklahoma City (W)

@ Memphis (L)

vs LA Lakers (L)

vs Dallas (W)

vs New York (W)

vs Sacramento (W)

 

Projected Score: 7 wins

Actual Score: 8 wins

 

 

Next 5 Games:
 

vs LA Clippers (9-5)

@ Milwaukee (9-7)

vs Memphis (13-2)

@ Minnesota (3-10)

vs Phoenix (10-6)

 

Projected Score: 2.9 wins

 

 

Full Schedule Breakdown:

 

Gimmes (90% wins):

 

Boston x2 (1-0)

LA Lakers x3 (1-1)

Orlando x2

Minnesota x4 (1-0)

Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

Utah x4 (1-0)

 

Current: 6-1

Expected: 15-2

 

Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

 

Brooklyn x2

Charlotte x2

Detroit x2

Denver x4

Indiana x2

Milwaukee x2

New York x2 (1-0)

Sacramento x3 (1-0)

 

Current: 2-0

Expected: 16-3

 

 

Favourites (60% wins):

 

Atlanta x2

Miami x2 (1-0)

New Orleans x4

Phoenix x4

Toronto x2

Washington x2

 

Current: 1-0

Expected: 11-5

 

Even (50% wins):

 

Chicago x2

Dallas x4 (1-0)

Golden State x4 (0-1)

Portland x3

San Antonio x4 (1-0)

 

Current: 2-1

Expected: 9-8

 

Underdogs (30% wins):

 

Cleveland x2

LA Clippers x4

Memphis x4 (0-1)

Oklahoma City x3 (1-0)

 

Current: 1-1

Expected: 4-9

 

Current Record: 12-3

Predicted Record: 55-27


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#7 Steven

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    Posted 28 November 2014 - 11:12 PM

    60 wins. Write it down.
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    #8 Willk

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      Posted 29 November 2014 - 08:34 AM

      60 wins. Write it down.


      If you are right about this, I will never doubt you :)
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      #9 Sir Thursday

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      Posted 09 December 2014 - 03:11 PM

      Houston's play over the last five games has been well above expectations given the injury crisis. They gained a whole game over expectations in that period (which is harder to do than it sounds). There's a tricky slate coming up though - it's difficult to pick up all the wins you're supposed to against teams like Denver, Sacramento and New Orleans. They're beatable, but it's tough to do consistently. Plus there's the big game against the Warriors tomorrow...

       

      I was tempted to move the Warriors from Even to Underdog, but decided against it - both teams are riding high right now, so it's a battle between equals. So the only change I'm making is:

       

      Detroit: Heavy Favourite->Gimme

       

      They deserve it.

       

      ST

       

      Current Standings:
       
      1. Golden State (18-2)

      2=. Houston (16-4)

      2=. Portland (16-4)

      2=. Memphis (16-4)
      5=. San Antonio (15-5)

      5=. LA Clippers (15-5)

      :

       

      Since Last Update:
       

      vs LA Clippers (L)

      @ Milwaukee (W)

      vs Memphis (W)

      @ Minnesota (W)

      vs Phoenix (W)

       

      Projected Score: 2.9 wins

      Actual Score: 4 wins

       

       

      Next 5 Games:
       

      @ Golden State (18-2)

      @ Sacramento (11-10)

      vs Denver (9-12)

      @ Denver (9-12)

      vs New Orleans (9-10)

       

      Projected Score: 3.5 wins

       

       

      Full Schedule Breakdown:

       

      Gimmes (90% wins):

       

      Boston x2 (1-0)

      Detroit x2

      LA Lakers x3 (1-1)

      Orlando x2

      Minnesota x4 (2-0)

      Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

      Utah x4 (1-0)

       

      Current: 7-1

      Expected: 17-2

       

      Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

       

      Brooklyn x2

      Charlotte x2

      Denver x4

      Indiana x2

      Milwaukee x2 (1-0)

      New York x2 (1-0)

      Sacramento x3 (1-0)

       

      Current: 3-0

      Expected: 14-3

       

      Favourites (60% wins):

       

      Atlanta x2

      Miami x2 (1-0)

      New Orleans x4

      Phoenix x4 (1-0)

      Toronto x2

      Washington x2

       

      Current: 2-0

      Expected: 11-5

       

      Even (50% wins):

       

      Chicago x2

      Dallas x4 (1-0)

      Golden State x4 (0-1)

      Portland x3

      San Antonio x4 (1-0)

       

      Current: 2-1

      Expected: 9-8

       

      Underdogs (30% wins):

       

      Cleveland x2

      LA Clippers x4 (0-1)

      Memphis x4 (1-1)

      Oklahoma City x3 (1-0)

       

      Current: 2-2

      Expected: 5-8

       

      Current Record: 16-4

      Predicted Record: 56-26


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      #10 redfaithful

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      Posted 09 December 2014 - 08:02 PM

      I found myself actually waiting for your take earlier today, thanks ST!


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      #11 Sir Thursday

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      Posted 02 January 2015 - 02:38 PM

      Sorry it's been so long since I last updated - busy Christmas period. The Rockets had some losses that they need to avoid if they're going to get up to those high 50s win totals everyone's hoping for. There were no gimmes in this period, but there were enough teams they should have beaten that going 6-5 represents a failure to live up to expectations.

       

      Very tempted to reduce the team's expected wins against Washington and Atlanta after the losses they delivered to us over the past few weeks and considering their strong recent play. Might do so if they continue to rack up wins against Western Conference opposition and/or the Rockets continue to struggle.

       

      Making the following changes in this period (NB: These readjustments negate the failure to live up to expectation over the last 11 games, so the overall prediction remains unchanged):

       

      New York: Heavy Favourites -> Gimme

      Cleveland: Underdogs -> Even

       

      I've also included predictions from ESPN (kind of surprised they still call them Hollinger Odds, but I guess they respect his influence) and basketball-reference.com. Interestingly, both are significantly less positive about the Rockets than I am, presumably because their recent play has not left them with a good points differential...I guess we'll see who's right as the season goes on.

       

      ST

       

      Current Standings:
       
      1. Golden State (25-5)

      2. Portland (26-7)

      3. Memphis (23-8)

      4. Houston (22-9)

      5. Dallas (23-10)

      6. LA Clippers (22-11)
      7. San Antonio (20-14)

      8. Phoenix (18-16)

      :

       

      Since Last Update:

       

       

      @ Golden State (L)

      @ Sacramento (W)

      vs Denver (W)

      @ Denver (W)

      vs New Orleans (L)

      vs Atlanta (L)

      vs Portland (W)

      @ Memphis (W)

      @ San Antonio (L)

      vs Washington (L)

      vs Charlotte (W)

       

       

      Projected Score: 6.8 wins

      Actual Score: 6 wins

       

       

      Next 5 Games:
       

      @ New Orleans (16-16)

      vs Miami (14-19)

      @ Chicago (23-10)

      @ Cleveland (18-14)

      @ New York (5-29)

       

      Projected Score: 3.3 wins

       

       

      Full Schedule Breakdown:

       

      Gimmes (90% wins):

       

      Boston x2 (1-0)

      Detroit x2

      LA Lakers x3 (1-1)

      Orlando x2

      Minnesota x4 (2-0)

      New York x2 (1-0)

      Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

      Utah x4 (1-0)

       

      Current: 8-1

      Expected: 19-2

       

      Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

       

      Brooklyn x2

      Charlotte x2 (1-0)

      Denver x4 (2-0)

      Indiana x2

      Milwaukee x2 (1-0)

      Sacramento x3 (2-0)

       

      Current: 6-0

      Expected: 13-2

       

      Favourites (60% wins):

       

      Atlanta x2 (0-1)

      Miami x2 (1-0)

      New Orleans x4 (0-1)

      Phoenix x4 (1-0)

      Toronto x2

      Washington x2 (0-1)

       

      Current: 2-3

      Expected: 9-7

       

      Even (50% wins):

       

      Chicago x2

      Cleveland x2

      Dallas x4 (1-0)

      Golden State x4 (0-2)

      Portland x3 (1-0)

      San Antonio x4 (1-1)

       

      Current: 3-3

      Expected: 10-9

       

      Underdogs (30% wins):

       

      LA Clippers x4 (0-1)

      Memphis x4 (2-1)

      Oklahoma City x3 (1-0)

       

      Current: 3-2

      Expected: 5-6

       

      Current Record: 22-9

      Predicted Record: 56-26

       

      Hollinger Playoff Odds: 51-31

      Basketball Reference Forecast: 50.4-31.6


      Edited by Sir Thursday, 02 January 2015 - 02:42 PM.

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      #12 redfaithful

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      Posted 25 January 2015 - 01:47 PM

      Any chance for an updated edition soon?


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      #13 Sir Thursday

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      Posted 25 January 2015 - 04:42 PM

      Sorry, just got back from holiday. Lots to get caught up on! On the basis of what's been going on since the last update, I think there are a couple of adjustments to be made:

       

      Golden State: Even -> Underdogs - It's clear that the Warriors are dominating that match-up right now and are deserved favourites when we play them.

      Oklahoma City: Underdogs -> Even - Westbrook and Durant still inspire fear, but these guys are not as good as they have been in years past.

      Detroit: Gimme -> Heavy Favourites - Given how well the Pistons have been playing recently, they've dragged themselves out of the basement.

       

      So with those changes in mind, here's the latest update. Thanks to performing slightly below expectations they've dropped a game since the last update - but nevertheless I'm still several games more optimistic than ESPN or BR. They're going to need to play well to get to 4 wins out of the next group - both Dallas and Chicago will present a challenge. But I think they're still capable of doing so - depends on how well Howard recovers from his ankle sprain of course.

       

      ST

       

      Current Standings:
       
      1. Golden State (35-6)

      2. Memphis (31-12)

      3. Portland (32-13)

      4. Houston (30-14)

      5. Dallas (30-14)

      6. LA Clippers (29-14)
      7. San Antonio (28-17)

      8. Phoenix (26-19)

       

      Since Last Update:

       

      @ New Orleans (L) 

      vs Miami (W) 

      @ Chicago (L) 

      @ Cleveland (W) 

      @ New York (W) 

      vs Utah (W) 

      @ Brooklyn (W) 

      @ Orlando (L) 

      vs Oklahoma City (W) 

      vs Golden State (L) 

      vs Indiana (W) 

      @ Golden State (L) 

      @ Phoenix (W) 

       

      Projected Score: 8.2 wins

      Actual Score: 8 wins

       

      Next 5 Games:

       

      @ LA Lakers (16-16)

      vs Dallas (14-19)

      @ Boston (23-10)

      @ Detroit (18-14)

      vs Chicago (5-29)

       

      Projected Score: 3.6 wins

       

      Full Schedule Breakdown:

       

      Gimmes (90% wins):

       

      Boston x2 (1-0)

      LA Lakers x3 (1-1)

      Orlando x2 (0-1)

      Minnesota x4 (2-0)

      New York x2 (2-0)

      Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

      Utah x4 (2-0)

       

      Current: 10-2

      Expected: 17-2

       

      Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

       

      Brooklyn x2 (1-0)

      Charlotte x2 (1-0)

      Denver x4 (2-0)

      Detroit x2

      Indiana x2 (1-0)

      Milwaukee x2 (1-0)

      Sacramento x3 (2-0)

       

      Current: 8-0

      Expected: 15-2

       

      Favourites (60% wins):

       

      Atlanta x2 (0-1)

      Miami x2 (2-0)

      New Orleans x4 (0-2)

      Phoenix x4 (2-0)

      Toronto x2

      Washington x2 (0-1)

       

      Current: 4-4

      Expected: 9-7

       

      Even (50% wins):

       

      Chicago x2 (0-1)

      Cleveland x2 (1-0)

      Dallas x4 (1-0)

      Oklahoma City x3 (2-0)

      Portland x3 (1-0)

      San Antonio x4 (1-1)

       

      Current: 6-2

      Expected: 11-7

       

      Underdogs (30% wins):

       

      Golden State x4 (0-4)

      LA Clippers x4 (0-1)

      Memphis x4 (2-1)

       

      Current: 2-6

      Expected: 3-9

       

      Current Record: 30-14

      Predicted Record: 55-27

       

      Hollinger Playoff Odds: 53-29

      Basketball Reference Forecast: 51.8-30.2


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      #14 timetodienow1234567

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      Posted 26 January 2015 - 02:13 PM

      Atlanta should be even at least
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      Why so Serious? :D


      #15 Sir Thursday

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      Posted 02 February 2015 - 02:01 AM

      Atlanta should be even at least

       

      You're right - I don't know how I missed that and didn't update it. Will fix it on the next post.


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      #16 Sir Thursday

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      Posted 16 February 2015 - 10:02 PM

      OK, All Star update edition. Rockets just about managed to keep up with expectations over the last period, although it would have been nice to win another game towards the end there to really cement things. The coming stretch looks like it should be easy enough to stay afloat - beat the Wolves and Nets and they only have to take one of the three tougher games (Mavs, Raptors, Clippers) to get near the 3.1 win prediction. With good play though, the Rockets might be able to sniff 4 wins out of 5 here. 

       

      This metric is still more optimistic than either ESPN/Hollinger or Basketball Reference both of which predict that the Rockets will end up with the 5 seed. They're slowly trending upwards though - I'm sure they'll come to the right conclusion soon enough!

       

      In this update there's only one move (and it's one I should have made a while ago):

       

      Atlanta: Favourites->Even. The Hawks are playing great basketball, but I just can't bring myself to put the Rockets as underdogs.

       

      Current Standings:

       

       
      1. Golden State (42-9)

      2. Memphis (39-14)

      3=. Portland (36-17)

      3=. Houston (36-17)

      5. Dallas (36-19)

      6. LA Clippers (35-19)
      7. San Antonio (34-19)

      8. Phoenix (29-25)

       

      Since Last Update:

       

      @ LA Lakers (W)

      vs Dallas (W)

      @ Boston (W)

      @ Detroit (L)

      vs Chicago (W)

      vs Milwaukee (W)

      vs Portland (L)

      @ Phoenix (W)

      @ LA Clippers (L)

       

      Projected Score: 6.2 wins

      Actual Score: 6 wins

       

      Next 5 Games:

       

      @ Dallas (36-19)

      vs Toronto (36-17)

      vs Minnesota (11-42)

      vs LA Clippers (35-19)

      vs Brooklyn (21-31)

       

      Projected Score: 3.1 wins

       

      Full Schedule Breakdown:

       

      Gimmes (90% wins):

       

      Boston x2 (2-0)

      LA Lakers x3 (2-1)

      Orlando x2 (0-1)

      Minnesota x4 (2-0)

      New York x2 (2-0)

      Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

      Utah x4 (2-0)

       

      Current: 12-2

      Expected: 17-2

       

      Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

       

      Brooklyn x2 (1-0)

      Charlotte x2 (1-0)

      Denver x4 (2-0)

      Detroit x2 (0-1)

      Indiana x2 (1-0)

      Milwaukee x2 (2-0)

      Sacramento x3 (2-0)

       

      Current: 9-1

      Expected: 15-2

       

      Favourites (60% wins):

       

      Miami x2 (2-0)

      New Orleans x4 (0-2)

      Phoenix x4 (3-0)

      Toronto x2

      Washington x2 (0-1)

       

      Current: 5-3

      Expected: 9-5

       

      Even (50% wins):

       

      Atlanta x2 (0-1)

      Chicago x2 (1-1)

      Cleveland x2 (1-0)

      Dallas x4 (2-0)

      Oklahoma City x3 (2-0)

      Portland x3 (1-1)

      San Antonio x4 (1-1)

       

      Current: 8-4

      Expected: 12-8

       

      Underdogs (30% wins):

       

      Golden State x4 (0-4)

      LA Clippers x4 (0-2)

      Memphis x4 (2-1)

       

      Current: 2-7

      Expected: 2-10

       

      Current Record: 36-17

      Predicted Record: 55-27

       

      Hollinger Playoff Odds: 52-30

      Basketball Reference Forecast: 52.7-29.3


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      #17 nlin5

      nlin5

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        Posted 17 February 2015 - 04:42 AM

        Anyone still thinking about the Clippers game right before the All Star break, I found an article that talked about what went wrong and how Moreyball can correct them

         

        https://donatasmotie....wordpress.com/


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        #18 redfaithful

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        Posted 26 February 2015 - 09:14 AM

        Hollinger Playoff Odds: 54-28

         

        And climbing...


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        #19 redfaithful

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        Posted 16 March 2015 - 07:43 AM

        Took the liberty to count the remaining games. Moved Utah to 80%, they deserve it or even better. Bottom line is still 55-27.

         

        90%: Orlando, Minnesota (2-0)

         

        80%: Denver, Indiana, Charlotte, Sacramento, Utah (4-1)

         

        60%: Phoenix, New Orleans x2, Washington, Toronto (3-2)

         

        50%: Dallas, OKC, San Antonio x2 (2-2)

         

        Remaining: 11-5

        Total: 55-27


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        #20 Sir Thursday

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        Posted 19 March 2015 - 11:20 PM

        Apologies for the long hiatus and thanks to redfaithful for the update. Here's a full listing. Made a couple of moves:

         

        Utah: Gimme -> Heavy Favourite [As redfaithful points out, they've been really good recently and deserve a bump]

        Sacramento: Heavy Favourite -> Gimme [These guys have been awful recently and should be demoted].

         

        I toyed around with doing something with Indiana given how well they've played to get back in playoff position, but they're on a three game slide so it's not really justified to bump them up any higher.

         

        ST

         

         

        Current Standings:

         

         
        1. Golden State (54-13)

        2. Memphis (47-21)

        3. Houston (45-22)

        4. Portland (44-22)

        5=. LA Clippers (44-25)

        5=. Dallas (44-25)
        7. San Antonio (42-25)

        8. Oklahoma City (38-30)

         

        Since Last Update:

         

        @ Dallas (L)

        vs Toronto (W)

        vs Minnesota (W)

        vs LA Clippers (W)

        vs Brooklyn (W) 

        vs Cleveland (W)

        @ Atlanta (L)

        vs Memphis (L)

        vs Detroit (W)

        @ Denver (W)

        @ Portland (L)

        @ Utah (L)

        @ LA Clippers (W)

        vs Orlando (W)

         

        Projected Score: 8.5 wins

        Actual Score: 9 wins

         

        Next 5 Games:

         

        vs Denver (26-42)

        vs Phoenix (35-33)

        @ Indiana (30-37)

        @ New Orleans (37-30)

        vs Minnesota (14-53)

         

        Projected Score: 3.7 wins

         

        Full Schedule Breakdown:

         

        Gimmes (90% wins):

         

        Boston x2 (2-0)

        LA Lakers x3 (2-1)

        Orlando x2 (1-1)

        Minnesota x4 (3-0)

        New York x2 (2-0)

        Philadelphia x2 (2-0)

        Sacramento x3 (2-0)

         

        Current: 14-2

        Expected: 16-2

         

        Heavy Favourites (80% wins):

         

        Brooklyn x2 (2-0)

        Charlotte x2 (1-0)

        Denver x4 (3-0)

        Detroit x2 (1-1)

        Indiana x2 (1-0)

        Milwaukee x2 (2-0)

        Utah x4 (2-1)

         

        Current: 12-2

        Expected: 15-3

         

        Favourites (60% wins):

         

        Miami x2 (2-0)

        New Orleans x4 (0-2)

        Phoenix x4 (3-0)

        Toronto x2 (1-0)

        Washington x2 (0-1)

         

        Current: 6-3

        Expected: 9-5

         

        Even (50% wins):

         

        Atlanta x2 (0-2)

        Chicago x2 (1-1)

        Cleveland x2 (2-0)

        Dallas x4 (2-1)

        Oklahoma City x3 (2-0)

        Portland x3 (1-2)

        San Antonio x4 (1-1)

         

        Current: 9-7

        Expected: 11-9

         

        Underdogs (30% wins):

         

        Golden State x4 (0-4)

        LA Clippers x4 (2-2)

        Memphis x4 (2-2)

         

        Current: 4-8

        Expected: 4-8

         

        Current Record: 45-22

        Predicted Record: 55-27

         

        Hollinger Playoff Odds: 54-28

        Basketball Reference Forecast: 53.7-28.3


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